NARRATIVE: The Berlin E5 Summit — Europe's five forge their armor before NATO's Ankara

NARRATIVE: The Berlin E5 Summit — Europe's five forge their armor before NATO's Ankara

Introduction: Berlin, June 24, 2026 — five leaders to redraw a continent

The Federal Chancellery as a stage for history

On that Wednesday, June 24, 2026, in Berlin, the German Federal Chancellery hosted an unprecedented diplomatic format: for the first time, the five major military powers of Europe were meeting at the level of heads of state and government. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz had invited his counterparts to a gathering whose symbolism and decisions could be remembered as a turning point in the history of European defense. Around the table: French President Emmanuel Macron, outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, and Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk. On video call from Washington: NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.

The official objective of the meeting was to prepare the NATO summit to be held in Ankara on July 7 and 8. But the significance of what happened in Berlin goes far beyond routine preparation. In one intensive working day, the five leaders formulated a joint commitment across five strategic axes that are reshaping European geopolitics.

The E5 format: genesis of a framework born of necessity

The E5 format was not born from a treaty or an institutional decision. It was born from necessity. In 2024, faced with American pressure to take on a growing share of European defense — and with the war in Ukraine redefining security priorities — the defense ministers of Europe's five largest military powers began to coordinate more closely. Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland together represent the principal economies and the principal defense budgets of European member states and partners. Their coordination, even informal, carries a critical mass that the E3 format (France-Germany-UK) could not achieve. June 24, 2026 marks the first meeting of this format at the leaders' level.

The five messages from Berlin: an ambitious strategic program

The European pillar of NATO strengthened

The first of the five axes of the Berlin E5 declaration addresses European leadership and burden-sharing within NATO. The five leaders committed to building "a stronger European role within NATO, with Europe taking on greater responsibility for our common transatlantic security." This formulation, apparently technical, is in reality politically revolutionary. It means that Europeans are embracing the logic of "NATO 3.0" promoted by Rutte: the Alliance remains transatlantic, but Europe takes charge of more of its own defense.

Chancellor Merz was explicit about the numbers at the final press conference: Germany is increasing its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP and aims to reach this target as early as 2029. France, the United Kingdom, Italy, and Poland were also making "massive investments" in their defenses. Merz put the intention plainly: "we want our neighbors to feel more secure when Germany grows stronger." The message to Putin was equally clear: "Ukraine will remain strong, and Europe's support will not falter."

Collective security and deterrence against Russia

The second axis addresses collective security and strengthening the Alliance's deterrence and defense posture. The five leaders affirmed their intention to "proactively strengthen the Alliance's deterrence and defense posture" and to increase contributions to NATO's deterrence activities, "in order to respond to the most significant and direct threat from Russia." This direct reference to Russia as "the most significant threat" is remarkable in its absence of diplomatic circumlocution. The adversary is named.

Armament and industry: long-range precision strike at the heart of the agenda

Defense industrial cooperation: accelerating shared capabilities

The third axis — and one of the most concrete — addresses defense industrial cooperation. The Berlin declaration explicitly lists priority areas of cooperation: air defense, unmanned systems, and artificial intelligence, among others. But the most significant formulation is this: the five leaders "commit to accelerating their engagement in the European joint development and acquisition of long-range precision strike capabilities." This sentence is a revolution in European defense law.

For years, the question of jointly acquiring European long-range missiles was taboo in several capitals, notably Germany, due to historical sensitivities and fears of escalation. Berlin has just formalized its commitment to this program. Long-range precision strike capability — the ability to reach military targets deep behind Russian lines — is now an openly acknowledged and common objective of Europe's five major powers.

Military AI as a technological priority

The explicit mention of artificial intelligence among the axes of E5 defense industrial cooperation is also significant. It reflects an awareness that the war in Ukraine has turned into strategic certainty: the next war will be won as much in algorithms as on the ground. The Ukrainian drones striking Moscow's refineries use guidance systems and autonomous navigation capabilities that are improving rapidly. Russian countermeasures too. Future military power depends on the ability to integrate AI into weapons systems, command and control systems, and logistics.

Support for Ukraine: a commitment reaffirmed and reinforced

Financial commitments to Kyiv

The fourth axis of the E5 declaration addresses support for Ukraine. The five leaders committed to "substantially supporting Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression, notably through sanctions and economic pressure on Russia." But the most concrete proposal came from Merz himself: the German Chancellor proposed that European NATO partners commit to financing Ukrainian armed forces "reliably and massively" for the following year as well. This proposal for predictable multi-year funding is crucial for Ukrainian military planning.

The declaration also stipulates enhanced support for "JATEC and NSATU" — NATO initiatives that organize the training of Ukrainian soldiers and assistance in modernizing Ukraine's armed forces — and reaffirms the commitment to deepen the NATO-Ukraine partnership. The formulation on "the vital contribution Ukraine is making to Euro-Atlantic security" is particularly powerful: it acknowledges that Ukraine is fighting for all of Europe, not just itself.

The question of NATO membership: between ambition and realism

The Berlin declaration does not take the leap of proclaiming Ukraine's imminent accession to NATO — the opposition of certain Alliance members to this prospect, notably linked to fears of direct escalation with Russia, is well known. But it reaffirms the commitment to "bring Ukraine closer to the Alliance" and to recognize its importance to Euro-Atlantic security. That is a positive signal for Kyiv, even if the concrete conditions for accession remain to be defined.

The five personalities: portrait of a historic group

Merz, host and architect

Chancellor Friedrich Merz had taken the initiative to convene this meeting, and his performance at the final press conference showed a leader comfortable in his role as the natural leader of European diplomacy. A man often presented as an Atlanticist conservative, he chose Berlin as the platform for a refounding of European defense — demonstrating that Europe's rise within NATO is not an anti-American project, but a more balanced partnership. His formulation on Russia as a "direct threat" and on Ukraine that "will remain strong" may be the most memorable phrase of the day.

Merz also announced that he would personally brief President Trump on the results of the meeting — a sign that Berlin considers the transatlantic relationship as the reference framework, even while building stronger European autonomy. This dual articulation — strong Europe, strong NATO — is the signature of the German chancellor during this pivotal period.

Macron, Meloni, Tusk, Starmer: four voices for one Europe

Emmanuel Macron referenced the "Évian moment" — alluding to the G7 summit — where American and European leaders had demonstrated their unity. He also signaled that Europeans were ready to participate in a military operation in the Strait of Hormuz if conditions were met. Giorgia Meloni, Italy's Prime Minister, emphasized "the global security architecture changing at an extreme pace" and the need to deepen shared instruments. Her more cautious tone on certain subjects did not prevent a firm joint signature. Donald Tusk, the Pole, whose country lives with the permanent anxiety of sharing a border with Russia via Kaliningrad, made no effort to hide his relief at seeing Europe unite. As for Keir Starmer — who had just announced his resignation as Labour leader but remained in office during the transition period — the words of the other leaders had been warm, almost moved.

The unexpected dimension: Iran in the E5 declaration

The Iran-US MOU welcomed with caution

One of the most surprising elements of the Berlin E5 declaration is its fifth axis, devoted to Iran. The five leaders had "welcomed the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, secured under the leadership of President Trump," calling it "a moment of opportunity to restore regional stability and stabilize the global economy." This formulation is significantly more muted than the triumphalist celebrations of certain American officials. The Europeans welcome the agreement, but with restraint.

More importantly, the declaration reaffirms that "Iran must never obtain a nuclear weapon" and expresses commitment to "support the implementation of the MOU in the context of an urgent and comprehensive follow-through that delivers lasting peace." The five leaders also confirm their commitment to participate in the multinational military mission to secure the Strait of Hormuz — under Franco-British command — "as soon as conditions allow." This last formulation explicitly conditions European participation on the satisfaction of certain guarantees.

Freedom of navigation: a vital European interest

The question of the Strait of Hormuz is not an abstract subject for Europeans. The strait's closure had directly contributed to the energy price spike that had forced the ECB to raise rates on June 11. European industries dependent on Persian Gulf oil had suffered. Restoring free navigation in the strait is a vital economic interest for Europe — hence the E5's insistence on this point and their commitment to participate militarily if necessary.

The context of Ankara preparation: what the E5 want from the summit

The 5% GDP objective: keeping commitments

NATO Secretary General Rutte announced on June 25 during an Atlantic Council address that the Ankara summit would allow for the announcement of tens of billions of dollars in new defense contracts. Allies had agreed at the The Hague summit in 2025 to reach the target of 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035. Ankara will be the first "accountability summit" — where the question is whether commitments translate into concrete action. Rutte also confirmed that Ukrainian President Zelensky would attend Ankara, where "we will show him that our support endures."

The E5 had specifically affirmed in their Berlin declaration their welcome of "the significant progress made by Allies in implementing the Hague Defence Investment Pledge." All five were now above the 2% of GDP threshold in military spending and were committing to higher levels. European NATO members had collectively increased their defense spending by more than 20% in 2025 — the largest increase ever recorded.

Trump in Ankara: the great unknown

The central question mark over the Ankara summit remains Donald Trump's behavior. Secretary of State Marco Rubio had stated in June that Trump would attend the summit in person, calling it "probably the most important meeting in NATO's history." But Trump is unpredictable. He could arrive in Ankara with new demands on defense spending, on the American role in Europe, or on the posture to adopt toward Ukraine — demands that could create tensions with European allies.

The geopolitical significance: strategic Europe, at last?

From a paper pillar to a real partner

For decades, Europe was mocked as an economic giant but a strategic dwarf. The inability to act without the United States, insufficient military spending, national divergences on defense and foreign policy — all structural weaknesses that had led Kissinger to ask his famous question: "Does Europe have a phone number?"

On June 24, 2026 in Berlin, five European powers answered that question: Europe has a number, and it goes through Berlin, Paris, London, Rome, and Warsaw. This is not yet a European army, nor a truly unified foreign policy. But it is a hard core of strategic cooperation among the most important military and economic powers on the continent — capable of articulating a common vision and concrete commitments.

The outgoing Starmer and the future British Prime Minister

One human element deserves highlighting: the presence of Keir Starmer in Berlin despite his announced resignation as Labour leader. He would remain in office until a successor was designated — potentially several months away. The warm farewells from his counterparts — Macron saluting his "sound strategic choices," Tusk ready to "forget Brexit" given how much Starmer had contributed to European unity — testified to the importance of the British contribution to this security architecture. The next British Prime Minister, whoever they may be, will inherit a country deeply reintegrated into European security structures — a major change from the post-Brexit isolationism.

The limits and fragilities of the E5 format

The absentees: the other EU and NATO members

The E5 format has a structural fragility: it explicitly excludes the other members of NATO and the EU — 29 Alliance members do not participate in this format, and 22 EU members are not represented in Berlin. This situation can generate jealousies, feelings of exclusion, and political resistance. The Baltic states, which are on the front line of the Russian threat, were not invited. The Nordic countries recently integrated into NATO — Sweden and Finland — were not there. Romania and the countries on the Alliance's eastern flank do not participate in this format.

These absences do not diminish the decisions taken in Berlin, but they serve as a reminder that the European security architecture cannot rest on five countries alone, however powerful they may be. The E5 format will be judged on its capacity to bring the others along in its wake — not to substitute itself for existing structures.

Translating commitments into real capabilities

The other fundamental limitation is the gap between declarations and industrial reality. Promising to jointly develop long-range precision strike capabilities is one thing — delivering those capabilities within a strategically useful timeframe is another. Europe has a fragmented defense industry, complex national procurement procedures, and an industrial culture not accustomed to the speed required in a degraded security environment. Translating Berlin's commitments into metal, integrated circuits, and operational software will be the real test.

The impact on Ukraine: a direct message from Berlin to Kyiv

Berlin as a strategic signal to both Putin and Zelensky

The Berlin E5 declaration is a message addressed simultaneously to three recipients. To Ukraine: Europe will not abandon it, financial and military support will continue. To Russia: Europeans have the means, the will, and the commitments needed to maintain pressure indefinitely. To Trump and the United States: Europe is taking its share of the burden, European allies are reliable partners, not dependents.

For Zelensky, who will be in Ankara on July 7 and 8, Berlin represents a concrete guarantee: even if Trump adopts an ambiguous posture at the summit, Europe's five major powers are maintaining their commitment. Ukraine is not alone. And the coalition that supports it has not only held together — it has grown stronger, with more precise, more concrete, and more durable commitments than before.

Drone strikes in the background

The E5 meeting of June 24 took place against a particularly tense backdrop. Two days earlier, Ukrainian forces had struck Russian targets with a new drone wave. The Kapotnya refinery had been burning in public memory since June 18. And less than two hours after the E5 press conference in Berlin concluded, the first reports of the massive attack of 660 Ukrainian drones on the night of June 25 to 26 began circulating. Berlin was preparing Ankara while Kyiv was showing Moscow what it was capable of. Politics and war were unfolding in parallel.

NATO 3.0: what Ankara must accomplish

Translate pledges into deliveries

Secretary General Rutte had summed up the Ankara stakes in one phrase: the The Hague 2025 summit had produced pledges. Ankara must produce results. "It is great to have pledges — and The Hague was a great success — but then honoring those pledges — and this is what I see happening at Ankara — is even more important." This logic of accountability — taking stock, measuring progress, demanding concrete delivery — is at the heart of the "NATO 3.0" vision presented by US Defense Secretary Hegseth at the defense ministers' meeting in Brussels in June.

Berlin contributed to this result by bringing concrete commitments — on spending, on industrial cooperation, on capabilities. Ankara will need to capitalize on this momentum and formalize the commitments within the broader Alliance framework. The challenge is to maintain Berlin's momentum in the larger and more complex context of a summit involving 32 members.

Erdogan's role: referee or brake?

The Ankara summit will be hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose role in the Alliance is deeply ambiguous. Turkey maintains economic ties with Russia, long delayed Sweden's NATO accession, and pursues a foreign policy that often runs parallel to Alliance interests. But Erdogan sees in this summit an opportunity to showcase Turkey as an indispensable power at the crossroads of Europe and Asia. He confirmed he would seek a bilateral meeting with Trump — and the Trump-Erdogan relationship is well known for its warmth. This unlikely pair could be the key variable at Ankara.

The economic balance sheet of the E5 format: figures and concrete commitments

Defense budgets in figures: the 3.5% revolution

Beyond the political declarations, the Berlin E5 meeting produced concrete budgetary commitments worth placing in perspective. Merz's Germany commits to reaching 3.5% of GDP in defense spending by 2029. For a country whose GDP exceeds €4 trillion, this means an annual military budget of more than €140 billion — compared to roughly €90 billion today. That is an increase of more than 50% in a few years, a figure that would have seemed unthinkable in 2021. For Poland, already at 4% of GDP, the trajectory toward 5% is more advanced than for any other NATO member state.

The total defense commitments of the five E5 countries, based on available projections, will represent by 2030 a combined military budget exceeding €500 billion per year. For context: Russia is spending approximately $150 billion per year on defense in 2026, despite its war effort. Europe's five will spend more than three times as much. If these commitments translate into real capabilities — and that is a big "if" — NATO's conventional military superiority over Russia will be overwhelming.

The European defense industry: consolidate to compete

One concrete challenge from Berlin is organizing the European defense industrial base. Europe has capable defense companies — Rheinmetall in Germany, Thales and Safran in France, Leonardo in Italy, BAE Systems in the UK — but their national fragmentation limits economies of scale. The development cost of a tank or a combat aircraft is prohibitive for a single country, but viable when shared among five. Joint programs such as the MGCS (Franco-German tank), SCAF (future combat aircraft), and MALE RPAS (reconnaissance drone) are progressing — slowly, but progressing. Berlin gave additional momentum to this cooperation logic.

The E5 dialogue and the European Union: institutional tensions

The E5 and EU institutions: complementarity or competition?

The E5 format creates a subtle institutional tension with the European Union and its defense structures — notably the Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) and the European Defence Fund. The five countries represented in Berlin are all EU members (or close partners in the UK's case post-Brexit), but their decisions within the E5 are made outside the EU's institutional structures. This can create duplication, inefficiencies, or tensions with the 22 other EU member states not participating in the format.

The response from E5 supporters is simple: major decisions are always made by the countries with the critical mass to implement them. This is a reality of international politics. The E5 can serve as a "locomotive" to bring the other EU and NATO member states toward higher levels of ambition — provided it does not function as an exclusive directorate that marginalizes the others. The Berlin declaration emphasizes its articulation with NATO and the EU — a necessary rhetorical precaution to avoid ruffling sensitivities.

Post-Brexit UK: back in Europe through the security door

The presence of Keir Starmer in Berlin illustrates a reality that Brexit did not erase: the United Kingdom remains a European country whose security interests are inextricably linked to those of its neighbors. Since Russia's 2022 invasion, the UK has progressively reintegrated into European defense cooperation structures — not through the EU, of which it is no longer a member, but through bilateral and multilateral formats like the E5, the Lancaster House agreements with France, and enhanced cooperation with NATO. This pragmatic return through the security door may be the most viable form of British reintegration into the European architecture after Brexit.

The historical memory: Berlin as a symbol of European renaissance

From a divided city to a capital of European security

Berlin has a particular relationship with the history of European division and reunification. Divided by the Wall from 1961 to 1989, then reunified as a symbol of democracy's triumph over dictatorship, it now hosts the meeting of Europe's five major military powers to strengthen their common defense against a new authoritarian threat from the East. The historical irony is not merely rhetorical — it is deeply significant. The city that symbolized the front line of the Cold War has become the place where Europe decides to give itself the means to never again be divided by the force of an authoritarian regime.

The Federal Chancellery, where the E5 meeting was held, is a modern building constructed after reunification to symbolize the transparency and openness of a Germany reconciled with its history. That it is in this building that five major European democracies decided to invest massively in their collective defense is not a coincidence. It is a continuation of history — the same Germany that had caused two world wars now choosing to build collective European security, with its neighbors, against aggressors from the East.

Strategic Europe: an idea that took 70 years to mature

The idea of a strategic Europe — capable of acting collectively in the domain of defense and security — has been debated since the earliest years of European construction. The European Defence Community had been rejected by the French parliament in 1954, blocking military integration for decades. Successive attempts — the Eurocorps, the CSDP, Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) — had produced structures but not real capabilities. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine did what decades of institutional debate had failed to accomplish: convinced Europeans that their security depends on their own capacity to defend themselves.

Conclusion: Berlin 2026, the birth of strategic Europe

What has changed after June 24

After June 24, 2026, European defense is no longer quite what it was before. Five major countries have signed precise commitments on military cooperation, defense spending, support for Ukraine, and their vision of the Alliance. This is not the end of a process — it is the beginning of a strategic architecture that will need to be built, brick by brick, in the months and years ahead. Ankara will be the next step. And the steps that follow will come, as long as the political will holds.

A continent learning to defend itself

The great lesson of Berlin — and of these four years of war in Ukraine — is that Europe can learn to defend itself. It long believed that the United States would always guarantee its protection, that economic prosperity would make military conflicts impossible, that the dividends of peace could be collected indefinitely. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine shattered those illusions. Berlin in 2026 marks the moment when Europe collectively decided to draw the consequences. History may remember this day as the moment the continent began to forge its armor.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

My position on this subject

I am convinced that European strategic autonomy is a necessity for the continent's long-term security. I support increased European defense spending and stronger military cooperation among member states. This position inevitably influences the positive framing I bring to the Berlin E5 meeting. I have nonetheless tried to identify the limits and fragilities of the E5 format.

What I do not know

I did not participate in the behind-closed-doors discussions that preceded the press conference. I do not know the details of any disagreements between the five countries. The commitments on defense spending and industrial cooperation will depend on their concrete implementation, which is still to come. My sources are primarily official statements, reports from leading media outlets, and analyses from specialized security policy institutes.

Sources

Primary sources

French Ministry of Foreign Affairs — E5 leaders' statement on Euro-Atlantic security, Berlin, June 26, 2026

German Federal Government — Merz hosts heads of government for the E5 meeting, June 24, 2026

Reuters via Internazionale — Rutte announces billions in new defense contracts at the summit, June 25, 2026

RBC-Ukraine — NATO's next summit will send a powerful message to Putin, June 26, 2026

Secondary sources

Euronews — Europe's five largest military powers meet ahead of key NATO summit, June 24, 2026

Al Jazeera — European leaders vow strong support for Ukraine ahead of NATO summit, June 24, 2026

Epoch Times — We want to strengthen our European pillar in NATO, says German chancellor, June 25, 2026

CSIS — The NATO Ankara Summit: NATO 3.0 in practice, June 9, 2026

Straits Times — Erdogan says bilateral talks with Trump likely at NATO summit, June 24, 2026