Friedrich Merz, the Germany that pledges its security to the Balts

Introduction: a sentence worth a strategic commitment

A meeting in Berlin ahead of the Ankara deadline

A few days before the NATO summit in Ankara, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz hosted the leaders of the three Baltic states in Berlin: Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs, and Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda. The phrase Merz used immediately echoed well beyond the meeting room: Baltic security is also German security.

This wasn't an improvised line. Merz explained that it echoed a commemorative plaque affixed to Vilnius city hall, which proclaims that Lithuania's security is our security, the defense of Vilnius is the defense of Berlin. It's a line the chancellor himself had spoken at the activation ceremony of the German 45th Panzer Brigade in Lithuania, in May of the previous year.

A man learning from his Baltic allies

Friedrich Merz acknowledged, with a humility rare among heads of government, that Germany was learning from its Baltic allies, who had understood far earlier the need to prepare concretely to defend their freedom, security, and prosperity. That admission stands in stark contrast to decades of German underinvestment in defense, an era Merz appears determined to close for good.

The threat, the chancellor insisted, is not abstract: it is very real on NATO's eastern flank. Russia constantly violates the Alliance's airspace, wages hybrid attacks in cyberspace, and has damaged undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. According to Merz, Moscow is currently testing NATO's unity and resolve, a reality that explains the urgency of this bilateral meeting ahead of the summit.

Baltic priorities for the Ankara summit

Turning financial commitments into real capabilities

Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs summed up his top priority: the 5% defense spending target agreed last year in The Hague must translate into concrete capabilities on the ground, not just budget figures. It isn't only about money, he insisted, but about buying the right equipment and strengthening the defense industry of every NATO member state.

This emphasis on the quality of spending rather than its volume alone reveals a concern shared by many eastern members of the Alliance: a generous defense budget is worthless if it doesn't translate into weapons systems actually delivered, ammunition actually stockpiled, and troops actually trained and equipped.

Unity on Article 5 and continued support for Ukraine

The second imperative Rinkēvičs outlined concerns Alliance unity behind Article 5 and all its collective commitments, while the third involves continued support for Ukraine. The Latvian president expressed hope that allies could reach common language to counter Russian and Belarusian hybrid threats and other provocations.

Any attack on the Baltic states would, according to Rinkēvičs, amount to a direct confrontation with all of NATO, a reminder that discussions about any single ally's security actually concern the security of the whole Alliance, a point internal debates sometimes tend to overlook.

Estonia and Lithuania: numbers that speak for themselves

Kristen Michal and Estonia's record investment

Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal noted that his country already invests more than 5% of its GDP in core defense, a level Poland and the other Baltic states also reach. Michal stressed the need for closer cooperation in defense industries and more joint procurement among European allies.

That, he explained, is how we close capability gaps faster. Michal also highlighted the role of the German-Dutch corps, which took tactical command of allied ground forces in Estonia and Latvia, as well as Germany's contribution to NATO's Baltic Air Policing mission.

Nausėda and Lithuania's 7% of GDP target

Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda announced that his country is on track to devote nearly 7% of its GDP to defense and security this year, far exceeding the commitment agreed at the Hague summit. Nausėda praised the permanent deployment of the German 45th Panzer Brigade, whose full stationing in Lithuania is planned by the end of 2027, as a concrete strengthening of his country's defense.

Asked about how German soldiers are perceived on the streets of Vilnius, Nausėda replied that they are more than welcome, calling it the best proof of solidarity and friendship between the two nations. A response that stands in sharp contrast to the historic tensions of the twentieth century between Germany and the Baltic states.

Friedrich Merz's political journey to the chancellery

A return to power after years in the wilderness

Friedrich Merz, a longtime figure in Germany's CDU, followed a political path marked by years away from power before reclaiming leadership of his party and then reaching the chancellery. His return came with a more assertive message about Germany's need to take on a more robust leadership role within Europe and NATO.

This stance contrasts with the traditional caution of postwar German foreign policy, long marked by reluctance to project significant military power. Merz appears determined to break with that historical restraint, at least in the specific context of the current Russian threat.

A security doctrine taking shape gradually

Since taking office, Merz has multiplied concrete gestures toward NATO's eastern allies: permanent troop deployment in Lithuania, increased defense budget commitments, and now this symbolic meeting with the three Baltic leaders ahead of a major Atlantic Alliance summit.

This emerging security doctrine positions Germany as a strategic pivot for NATO's entire eastern flank, a role Berlin hadn't embraced with this much clarity since the end of the Cold War.

Germany's commitment on defense spending

The 3.5% target reached ahead of schedule

Merz announced that Germany would reach the 3.5% of GDP defense spending target agreed in The Hague as early as 2029, well ahead of the deadline set by the original agreement. This announcement represents a major budgetary commitment for Europe's largest economy, whose recent history has long been marked by reluctance to significantly raise military spending.

The chancellor also pointed out that the Baltic states were contributing proportionally more than Germany, an honest acknowledgment of the efforts already made by these smaller countries that are, geographically, far more exposed to the direct Russian threat than German territory itself.

Financial support for Ukraine, a long-standing commitment

Merz noted that the Baltic states had committed for years to devoting 0.25% of their GDP to aid for Ukraine, calling the decision exemplary. This public recognition from the German chancellor illustrates how much importance he places on maintaining cohesion in Western support for Kyiv, beyond NATO's collective defense commitments alone.

Germany, as the European Union's largest economic contributor, carries a particular responsibility in sustaining this financial support for Ukraine, a responsibility Merz appears to be shouldering with remarkable consistency since taking power.

The nuclear question and the American umbrella

A debate that finds its way into bilateral talks

The American nuclear umbrella was among the topics discussed between Merz and the Baltic leaders, a theme that carries particular weight amid European doubts about the long-term reliability of America's commitment to continental defense, especially under the Trump administration.

This discussion is part of a broader reflection on the future of European nuclear deterrence, with several capitals, including Berlin and Paris, exploring options that complement the American umbrella without wanting to fully detach from it, a delicate balance to maintain in today's geopolitical climate.

Lithuania opens the door to nuclear weapons on its soil

President Nausėda revealed that an agreement among parties represented in the Lithuanian Parliament, reached at his own initiative, would begin lifting the constitutional ban on nuclear weapons and foreign military bases in the country. This shift would let Lithuania play a bigger role in NATO's nuclear deterrence against Russia.

Such a constitutional change, unthinkable just a few years ago, illustrates the scale of the strategic transformation the Baltic states have undergone since the start of the war in Ukraine, now ready to consider options once deemed too provocative toward Moscow.

Merz and the question of Ukraine's EU membership

The associate membership concept, an unprecedented proposal

Merz used the meeting to detail his proposal for associate membership for Ukraine in the European Union, which he called an extremely ambitious offer, never before proposed to any candidate country. This arrangement would bring Ukraine closer to the European Union starting now, without replacing full membership, which, in his own words, will still take time.

This proposal illustrates Germany's desire to maintain positive momentum in Ukraine's European path, even though the technical and political obstacles to full membership remain numerous, particularly regarding institutional reforms and anti-corruption efforts.

Kristen Michal pushes for opening the remaining chapters

Prime Minister Michal stressed that a just and lasting peace also requires a clear path to the European Union for Ukraine, adding that Kyiv has long been ready. In his view, the European Union should open the remaining negotiating clusters for Ukraine, a step he frames not as a favor, but as being in the European Union's own strategic and economic interest.

This convergence of views between Germany and the Baltic states on the urgency of concretely advancing Ukraine's European path strengthens the coherence of the Western message just days before a NATO summit where this topic is also expected to feature prominently in discussions among allies.

Merz's stance toward Vladimir Putin

A firm position on the conditions for peace

Asked about the prospects of a ceasefire or an end to the war along the current front line, Merz was unequivocal: such an outcome would only be possible if Vladimir Putin himself chose that path. The Russian president must end this war, it's entirely up to him to do so, he stated without ambiguity, clearly placing responsibility for the escalation and its resolution on the Kremlin's leader.

This rhetorical firmness comes with a commitment to closely involve the Baltic states in any effort to bring Putin to the negotiating table, implicitly recognizing that these countries, on the geographic front line against Russia, hold particular expertise and legitimacy on this issue.

Continued support for American mediation efforts

Merz also stated that Germany would keep supporting American efforts to secure a lasting end to the war in Ukraine, a position that illustrates Berlin's determination to maintain close transatlantic coordination despite occasional tensions between the Trump administration and certain European allies on other foreign policy matters.

This coordination, however imperfect at times, remains essential to maintaining coherent pressure on Moscow rather than letting Russia exploit potential divisions between Washington and European capitals over strategy toward the ongoing war.

What this meeting signals for the Ankara summit

Prior coordination that strengthens the Western position

This bilateral meeting in Berlin, just days before the NATO summit in Ankara, illustrates a diplomatic working method Merz appears to favor: aligning positions with the allies most directly exposed to the Russian threat before entering broader negotiations with the full Atlantic Alliance membership.

This methodical approach improves the odds that Germany and the Baltic states arrive in Ankara with already largely aligned positions on key priorities: concrete defense spending, unity behind Article 5, continued support for Ukraine, and coordinated management of Russian and Belarusian hybrid threats.

Merz wants a more European NATO to stay transatlantic

The chancellor summed up his vision for the summit in a dense phrase: NATO must become more European in order to remain transatlantic. This approach implicitly acknowledges that Europe must shoulder a growing share of the burden of its own defense, without calling into question the fundamental importance of the transatlantic bond with the United States.

This formula, which might seem paradoxical at first glance, actually captures the delicate balance Merz and his Baltic counterparts are trying to strike: a more autonomous, better-armed Europe, but one still firmly anchored in the Atlantic Alliance rather than tempted by a strategic autonomy that would isolate it from its American ally.

The 45th Panzer Brigade, symbol of German military re-engagement

A permanent deployment unmatched since the Cold War

The deployment of the German 45th Panzer Brigade in Lithuania marks the first commitment of German combat troops stationed on a lasting basis abroad since the end of the Second World War, outside short-rotation NATO missions. Expected to reach full operational capacity by the end of 2027, the brigade is set to number several thousand soldiers, with tanks and armored vehicles permanently stationed near the border with Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad.

This major logistical and political choice illustrates Berlin's determination to move beyond mere declarations of solidarity and invest concretely, in personnel and equipment, in defending the Alliance's eastern flank. The budgetary and human cost of this commitment is considerable, but it sends a deterrence signal that's hard for Moscow to ignore.

Military infrastructure being built under time pressure

Construction of the barracks, ammunition depots, and infrastructure needed to host this brigade is moving at an accelerated pace, in close coordination between German and Lithuanian authorities. Military officials from both countries have made repeated joint site visits to make sure deadlines are met despite the considerable logistical challenges such a deployment represents.

This race against the clock shows just how narrow Western general staffs perceive the preparation window against potential Russian aggression to be, preferring to build credible deterrence before any escalation rather than reacting after a crisis has already broken out on the ground.

German-Baltic cooperation in the defense industry

Joint industrial projects to close the gaps

Beyond the military deployment, Germany and the Baltic states are developing industrial cooperation projects in the defense sector, including joint ammunition production and local maintenance of military equipment. This approach aims to reduce dependence on long, vulnerable supply chains, an issue that has become central since the start of the war in Ukraine and the strain on Western ammunition stockpiles.

German defense companies, including Rheinmetall, are actively exploring partnerships with Baltic manufacturers to establish production capacity closer to potential conflict zones, thereby reducing resupply times in the event of a major crisis on the Alliance's eastern flank.

A model that could extend to other eastern allies

This German-Baltic industrial cooperation model could, according to several defense analysts, serve as an example for similar partnerships between Western European countries with a solid industrial base and Eastern European countries directly exposed to the Russian threat but with more limited production capacity.

Such an expansion would strengthen the collective resilience of the Atlantic Alliance in a prolonged conflict, where the ability to maintain a steady flow of ammunition and equipment could prove just as decisive as the number of troops deployed on the ground itself.

Russia's perception of German rearmament

Moscow denounces a militarization it frames as threatening

The Kremlin has regularly denounced German rearmament and troop deployment in Lithuania as a provocation, echoing its usual rhetoric of framing Western defensive measures as disguised acts of aggression. This Russian narrative deliberately ignores context: it was Moscow's 2022 invasion of Ukraine that triggered this wave of European rearmament, not the reverse.

German and Baltic officials consistently reject this narrative, pointing out that the deployment of the 45th Panzer Brigade takes place exclusively on the sovereign territory of a NATO member country, in full compliance with international law, unlike Russian aggression against a non-member neighboring country.

A communications war running alongside the real war

This narrative battle between Moscow and Western capitals shows just how much the war in Ukraine is also being fought on the ground of information and public perception, where each side seeks to present its own actions as defensive and the adversary's as aggressive, making independent fact-checking all the more essential.

Faced with this war of narratives, the relative transparency of Western military decisions, generally announced publicly with precise timelines, contrasts with the usual opacity of Russian troop movements, an asymmetry worth highlighting in any serious comparative analysis.

Reactions from other European capitals

Warsaw and Paris welcome Germany's posture

Several European capitals, including Warsaw and Paris, have welcomed Germany's military re-engagement on the eastern flank, seeing it as an encouraging sign of Berlin's willingness to take on a leadership role more in line with its economic weight within the European Union. This French-German-Polish convergence strengthens the cohesion of the Western camp ahead of the Ankara summit.

Poland's president, notably, stressed in recent discussions with his counterparts the need for a visible unity within the Alliance against Russian and Belarusian attempts to test the collective resolve of NATO members, a message that directly aligns with the priorities expressed by the Baltic leaders during their meeting with Merz.

Lingering concerns about the consistency of the commitment

Despite this generally positive reception, some European analysts temper their enthusiasm by recalling that Germany has, in the past, made ambitious defense commitments that weren't always fully honored on the announced timeline, particularly regarding the modernization of its own national army, the Bundeswehr.

This analytical caution takes nothing away from the symbolic weight of the Berlin meeting, but it's a reminder that the credibility of any security doctrine is measured over time, not just by the intensity of political announcements made at a given moment, however diplomatically significant they may be.

Russian hybrid threats in the Baltic Sea

Undersea cables severed again and again

The Baltic Sea has for several years become the scene of repeated incidents involving undersea telecommunications and energy cables cut or damaged, often attributed to vessels linked directly or indirectly to the Russian shadow fleet used to skirt Western oil sanctions. These incidents, difficult to attribute with absolute certainty, nonetheless fuel serious concerns among countries bordering the Baltic.

The Baltic states and Germany have stepped up their joint naval surveillance in this strategic zone, deploying more patrol vessels and aerial surveillance assets to detect and deter this kind of hybrid activity before it causes greater damage to European critical infrastructure.

A maritime zone that has become a quiet but real front

This maritime dimension of the confrontation with Russia generally receives less media attention than the ground fighting in Ukraine, but it represents an equally real front in today's strategic competition, where every unresolved incident chips away a little more at confidence in the security of European energy and digital infrastructure.

The strengthened German-Baltic cooperation discussed at the Berlin meeting explicitly includes this maritime dimension, with both sides acknowledging the need for a coordinated response to hybrid tactics designed precisely to stay below the threshold of a conventional NATO military response.

Conclusion: a chancellor embodying Germany's strategic awakening

What this meeting reveals about the new German leadership

This meeting between Friedrich Merz and the Baltic leaders, just days before the NATO summit in Ankara, illustrates the scale of the shift in German strategic posture since the chancellor took office. Between concrete budgetary commitments, permanent military deployments, and unambiguous messages of solidarity toward the most exposed allies, Merz is building a security doctrine that breaks with decades of traditional German restraint.

A credibility test that will play out over time

The true measure of this commitment will play out over time: beyond symbolic statements and bilateral meetings, it is Germany's ability to honor its budgetary commitments through 2029 and to sustain its permanent military presence in Lithuania that will determine whether this rhetoric of solidarity truly translates into credible deterrence against Russia over the long run.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and how I built this profile

I am a columnist and analyst, not an expert in German foreign policy or Baltic international relations. This piece relies primarily on Euronews reporting covering this meeting in Berlin, as well as supplementary articles on Baltic defense buildups and the context of the Ankara summit.

My limits and my acknowledged biases

I firmly believe in the need for coherent Western rearmament and strengthened transatlantic solidarity against Russia, which colors my positive reading of the posture Merz has adopted. I acknowledge that I cannot independently assess the full sincerity of Germany's long-term budgetary commitments, nor predict with certainty the outcome of the discussions at the Ankara summit.

Sources

Primary sources

Euronews, Merz meets Baltic leaders before NATO summit — July 3, 2026

Euromaidan Press, Erdogan tells Merz Turkey is working to restart Russia-Ukraine peace talks ahead of Ankara NATO summit — June 29, 2026

Secondary sources

Euronews, On NATO's eastern flank, how Lithuania is strengthening its defences — June 30, 2026

Polskie Radio, Polish president urges NATO unity ahead of Ankara summit after B9 talks in Romania — 2026

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense — 2026

NATO, official documents on the Ankara summit — 2026