NATO finally calls Russia the threat it is

Introduction: an admission that comes late, but comes

A declaration that changes the vocabulary

It took more than four years of war in Ukraine for NATO to finally decide to put in writing what everyone already knew. According to the final declaration of the Ankara summit, approved by ambassadors from the 32 member countries around July 3, 2026, Russia will be formally designated as representing "a long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security and stability," reports Pravda Ukraine.

This is not a semantic detail. In the hushed world of diplomatic communiqués, every word is weighed, negotiated, sometimes wrestled out through hard bargaining. The fact that the Alliance finally acknowledges, in an official text, that Vladimir Putin does not represent a passing accident but a structural and lasting threat marks a shift in tone that Eastern capitals have been demanding for years.

Ankara, Turkey's second summit in twenty years

The choice of Ankara as host of the 36th NATO summit, on July 7 and 8, 2026, is no accident. It's only the second time Turkey has hosted such an event since the Istanbul summit in 2004. Heads of state and government will meet at the Beştepe presidential complex, according to information reported by Euronews, in a context where Ankara has played a balancing act between Moscow and the West since the conflict began.

The geographic symbolism matters. Holding this summit at the doorstep of the Black Sea, a few hundred kilometers from the fighting, sends a clear message to Russian leaders: Western unity has not dissolved with time, it has instead hardened around a tougher line.

Article 5 reaffirmed without ambiguity

A commitment described as "ironclad"

The text approved by ambassadors reaffirms what Reuters calls an "ironclad commitment" to the collective defense provided for under Article 5 of the Alliance's founding treaty. In practical terms, an attack against a NATO member remains considered an attack against all, with no exception, no nuance, no diplomatic escape hatch for anyone tempted to test Western solidarity.

This rhetorical clarity counts double in the current climate. Since Donald Trump's return to the White House, several European allies had worried about possible American strategic ambiguity. Seeing Washington co-sign such a firm text on Article 5 is reassuring, at least on the military front.

The message sent to Moscow

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte summed up the spirit of the summit by explaining, according to Anadolu Agency, that the goal is to turn "commitments into concrete results." He also cited a striking figure: Russia now devotes nearly 48% of its state budget to military spending, a colossal war effort for an economy that remains smaller than the combined economies of Belgium and the Netherlands.

Rutte deliberately hammers this contrast home: despite this crushing budgetary effort on the Russian side, NATO retains a clear military and economic edge. It's a message of deterrence as much as a message of confidence sent to Western public opinion, often weary after more than four years of war.

The Ukrainian jackpot: 140 billion euros over two years

Massive funding carried by the Europeans

Beyond the words, there are the numbers, and they are considerable. According to Pravda Ukraine, NATO's European allies and Canada are committing to provide 70 billion euros a year in military support to Ukraine, in 2026 and 2027, for a total of 140 billion euros over two years, roughly equivalent to 80 billion US dollars.

It's worth noting that the United States does not appear in this specific envelope, which illustrates a gradual rebalancing of the financial burden toward Europe, a shift Washington has demanded for years and that the Trump administration has accelerated through diplomatic pressure.

What exactly this sum covers

This amount is not entirely made up of fresh money. It includes the defense portion of the European Union's 90-billion-euro loan, of which 28.3 billion euros are earmarked for 2026 alone, plus bilateral commitments made country by country. The final declaration, Euronews notes, is also expected to recognize Ukraine not merely as a recipient of Western aid, but as a genuine security provider for its allies, notably thanks to its recognized expertise in drones.

Trump, an unpredictable but present ally

Real tensions before the summit

It would be dishonest to pretend everything is simple on the American side. According to the Straits Times, several European leaders arrive in Ankara with the explicit intent of smoothing over tensions built up with Donald Trump, notably following his remarks about Canada and Greenland, as well as European criticism over the lack of support from certain allies during the recent American confrontation with Iran.

These frictions are real, and I'm not minimizing them. But they shouldn't obscure what matters: on the specific military question of deterrence against Russia, Trump remains aligned with his Alliance partners, and that's what counts for the concrete security of the Eastern flank.

An expected endorsement despite the friction

Based on information available before the summit, the American president is indeed expected to endorse the final declaration, including its designation of Russia as a lasting threat. That's not a minor detail: it means that even within an administration considered unpredictable on European matters, the hard line toward Moscow survives presidential mood swings.

Iran, the summit's second rhetorical front

An explicit nuclear red line

The Ankara summit is not limited to Russia. The final declaration is also expected to state, according to excerpts reported by Euronews, that "Iran can never possess nuclear weapons." This seemingly simple sentence condenses years of tension over Iran's nuclear program and fits within the Alliance's broader doctrine on proliferation.

By linking Russia and Iran in the same text as major sources of concern, NATO draws a threat map consistent with what the most clear-eyed Western analysts have long argued: the informal axis between Moscow, Tehran, Pyongyang and Beijing is no longer theory but factual observation.

A welcome strategic coherence

Addressing these issues together rather than in silos allows the Alliance to present a global deterrence doctrine rather than a patchwork of one-off responses. This is exactly the kind of coherent strategic vision that advocates of a strong West have been demanding since the start of the decade.

European unity put to the test

Persistent internal divergences

Nor should we paint too smooth a picture of this Western unity. Some Alliance members, notably in Central Europe, continue to haggle over the exact share of their financial contribution to the 140-billion-euro fund earmarked for Ukraine. National budget debates, in Germany as in France, show that the displayed consensus in Ankara will still have to survive the parliamentary realities of each capital.

These internal frictions are nothing new. Since the conflict began in 2022, every NATO summit has had to contend with electoral calendars, populist opposition and competing budget priorities. What's different in Ankara is that pressure from the ground, with a Russia that has shown no sign of wanting to negotiate seriously, makes these hesitations increasingly hard to justify to the public.

Poland and the Baltics on the front line

The most geographically exposed countries, such as Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, remain the most fervent advocates of a hard line. Their border position with Russia or Belarus gives them a particular legitimacy to demand firm commitments, and their voice carries weight in the final negotiations over the Ankara text.

Ukrainian drones, a strategic bargaining chip

Expertise turned diplomatic asset

One of the most fascinating aspects of this summit remains the explicit recognition of Ukraine as a provider of defense technology, and no longer merely a recipient of aid. Ukrainian expertise in combat drones, developed under the pressure of war, is now actively sought after by several Western militaries looking to rapidly modernize their own capabilities.

This reversal in the balance of power changes the very nature of the discussions in Ankara. Kyiv no longer arrives as a mere supplicant, but with cards to negotiate, know-how to trade, field expertise that neither the United States nor the major European powers have had to develop with the same intensity.

A model that inspires beyond Ukraine

Several Western military officials have in fact begun incorporating lessons drawn directly from the Ukrainian battlefield into their own doctrines. This flow of military knowledge, now moving in both directions, shows just how much Ukraine has established itself as a strategic laboratory from which the entire West is learning.

What Moscow is probably taking away from this summit

A cold calculation on the Kremlin's side

Never underestimate the Kremlin's ability to coldly read a balance of power, even as its domestic propaganda tells its population a different story. The official designation of Russia as a long-term threat, combined with a quantified and dated financial commitment spanning two years, sends a signal Russian strategists will find hard to ignore: the West shows no sign of fatigue, despite more than four years of conflict.

This doesn't mean Putin will change his strategy overnight. But every summit that confirms the solidity of the Western front further undermines the Kremlin's original bet, that of a Western weariness that would eventually give way before Ukrainian resistance did.

The failed bet on a divided Europe

Moscow's strategic bet since 2022 relied heavily on the idea that a divided and exhausted Europe would eventually drop its support for Kyiv. The Ankara summit, with its precise figures and unambiguous language, is a further rebuttal to that calculation, even though no one claims the game is won.

Conclusion: firmness as the only credible option

A signal sent to both Kyiv and Moscow

This Ankara summit will likely be remembered as a rhetorical turning point more than a sharp strategic break. But in a war where the patience of some Western publics is fraying, clarity of language matters. Designating Russia as a long-term threat, precisely quantifying aid to Ukraine, and reaffirming Article 5 without hedging, is a refusal to let the slightest doubt linger over Western resolve.

What comes next will be decided on the ground

Ankara's words will now need to translate into actual weapons deliveries, budgets genuinely disbursed, and sustained diplomatic pressure on Moscow. History will judge this summit not by its declaration, but by what follows on the ground, in the trenches of Donbas and in the Ukrainian skies where the drone battle plays out every night.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my declared biases

I am a columnist, not a war correspondent and not an accredited diplomat. My analysis relies on official texts and specialized press reporting, never on confidential tips or anonymous sources I cannot name. My bias is openly declared: I believe in the necessity of a strong, united and determined West facing Putin's Russia, and that inevitably colors my interpretation of the facts, even though the facts themselves remain verified.

What I don't yet know

At the time of writing, the summit's final declaration has not yet been officially adopted in its complete final text, and certain details could still evolve between the ambassadors' approval and the signing by heads of state. I will remain attentive to any necessary correction once the final text is published in full.

Sources

Primary sources

Pravda Ukraine — NATO to label Russia a direct threat, July 3, 2026

Euronews — NATO to reaffirm ironclad commitment to Article 5 at Ankara summit, July 3, 2026

NATO — Official overview of the 2026 Ankara summit

Secondary sources

Atlantic Council — How European allies can boost NATO unity at the Ankara summit

Straits Times — NATO leaders gather in Ankara aiming to smooth over tensions with Trump

Reuters — NATO leaders affirm ironclad commitment to collective defense, Ankara summit text, July 3, 2026

Anadolu Agency — NATO chief warns Russia will remain a long-term threat, July 1, 2026