ANALYSIS: 40-day influence operation: Kyiv targets Russia's resolve

ANALYSIS: 40-day influence operation: Kyiv targets Russia's resolve

Introduction: when strikes become a diplomatic language

A historic decision announced with restraint

On June 25, 2026, following a meeting with Major General Yevhen Khmara, acting head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), President Volodymyr Zelensky published a message on Telegram that came down to a single sentence: "I have approved a 40-day influence operation for the Service against the aggressor state, aimed at compelling it to end the war." No operational details, no fanfare — just this concise, weighty declaration.

But behind that sentence lies a sophisticated military-diplomatic strategy. The operation approved by Zelensky combines three axes: special combat operations, long-range and medium-range strikes on Russian military and economic targets, and the strengthening of Ukrainian positions on the front. The whole is designed to make continuing the war more costly for Moscow than sitting down at a good-faith negotiating table.

An unprecedented logic: strikes as economic sanctions

Zelensky himself described the strike operations as Ukrainian "sanctions" — a bold rhetorical framing that equates drones and missiles with instruments of economic pressure. This is no longer only about destroying military targets; it is about systematically degrading Russia's economic capacity to finance its war. The oil refineries in Ufa, in Bashkiria, struck on June 25 at 1,500 kilometers from the front, illustrate that ambition.

This framing is not insignificant. It repositions Ukraine not as a defensive power absorbing an aggression but as an actor holding real leverage over the Russian economy. It is a significant transformation in Ukrainian posture — and a direct message to Moscow, to Washington, and to European partners.

The mechanics of the operation: what we know

The SBU and the Alpha group at the heart of the effort

The operation is run by the SBU and its elite unit, the Special Operations Center Alpha. Zelensky explicitly mentioned that this group was recording "the highest rates of defending Ukrainian positions on the front through the use of various types of drones." The exact nature of the targets and methods remains classified, but the strikes of the first days provide clear indications.

Within 24 hours of the official announcement, Ukrainian drones struck the Poltavskaya oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, the Russian cable-laying ships Volga and Vyatka in occupied Crimea, an S-400 air defense system radar station near occupied Kerch, and a chemical plant in the Tula region. Occupied Crimea declared a regional state of emergency on June 26.

The choice of targets: a coherent logic

The targets are not selected at random. They follow a coherent logic: oil refineries and fuel depots to cause shortages affecting both Russian civilians and military logistics; port and naval infrastructure in Crimea to isolate the peninsula and disrupt supply lines; air defense systems to reduce Russian coverage and widen Ukrainian operational zones. Each strike aims to degrade Russia's capacity to sustain the war effort at a level that is beginning to show on the ground.

According to data compiled at the end of June 2026, more than 50 of Russia's 83 regions had imposed restrictions on gasoline sales. The Moscow oil refinery, severely damaged in previous strikes, will not resume production before year's end. These statistics are not anecdotal — they point to a structural degradation of Russia's ability to fuel itself.

Crimea under a state of emergency: the immediate impact

A peninsula besieged from within

Occupied Crimea is at the heart of the Ukrainian operation. On June 26, 2026, Russian occupation heads Sergei Aksyonov and Mikhail Razvozhaev signed decrees declaring a regional state of emergency, officially to "streamline economic matters." In reality, according to the ISW, Ukrainian strikes are creating fuel shortages, water supply problems, and triggering an exodus of the population from the occupied peninsula.

Logistical lines to Crimea — already weakened since the destruction of the Kerch Bridge and repeated strikes on railway lines — are now being attacked systematically. The cable ships Volga and Vyatka, struck in the port of Zatoka, were used to maintain undersea communications in the region. Their destruction is part of a strategy of deep disruption of Russian occupation administration in Crimea.

Ukrainian intelligence confirms the crisis

Ukraine's foreign intelligence service (SVR) obtained internal documents showing that the Russian occupation administration itself admits it is unable to resolve the disruptions caused by Ukrainian operations. According to Zelensky, these documents describe a "crisis that deepens practically every day" in the occupied territories, covering fuel, military logistics, and administrative management. The demonstration is twofold: Ukraine is striking effectively and Russia cannot defend what it has stolen.

Russia tried to show it was intercepting Ukrainian drones — the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have shot down 660 Ukrainian drones in a single night, from June 25 to 26, which TASS called "the largest Ukrainian attack wave of 2026." But even if those numbers are accurate, the documented damage shows that enough drones are reaching their targets to sustain significant pressure.

Russia's economic pressure: the broader context

An economy running on fumes

The Ukrainian operation is unfolding against a backdrop of mounting fragility in the Russian economy. Russia's GDP contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2026. The budget deficit hovers near 3% of GDP. Approximately 40% of public expenditure is now allocated to the war effort. Russia plans to increase military spending by 4 to 5 trillion rubles additionally in 2026, according to Bloomberg.

The price of Ural crude — Russia's main source of state revenue — fell to $44.3 per barrel at a recent low, compared to $109.7 on April 2, 2026. The 21st European sanctions package reinforced the price cap at $44.10 and targeted more of the Russian shadow fleet. A Zelensky government sanctions adviser declared that the Russian economy had reached a structural "dead end."

Oil as the lifeblood of the war

Vladimir Putin extended until end of 2027 his ban on Russian companies selling oil to buyers complying with the Western price cap. This measure aims to maintain oil revenues by circumventing sanctions — but it also complicates long-term planning for Russia's Asian clients, notably China and India. Sanctions combined with Ukrainian strikes on refineries are creating a simultaneous compression of both production and revenues.

This dual pressure — international sanctions and Ukrainian "sanctions" via strikes — forms the core of Kyiv's strategy. The objective is not to destroy the Russian economy overnight, but to degrade it enough so that continuing the war becomes more costly than peace. It is a long-term bet, but one grounded in concrete economic indicators rather than wishful thinking.

40 days: why this precise timeframe?

A signal of diplomatic temporality

The choice of 40 days as the operational horizon is not arbitrary. Zelensky declared in the same announcements that the negotiating window was open until the winter of 2026. The 40-day operation is thus positioned as a phase of maximum pressure before a possible diplomatic relaunch. It ends at the beginning of August, theoretically leaving Moscow time to signal genuine willingness to negotiate before the onset of the autumn and winter combat season.

This timeframe is also calibrated against the American calendar. With the NATO summit scheduled for July 7–8, 2026 in Ankara and ongoing discussions between Washington and Tehran, Zelensky is seeking to maximize pressure on Moscow precisely while attention is shifting to other files. It is a politically astute calculation.

Can a 40-day window move Putin?

The honest question is this: can 40 days of intensified strikes actually bring Putin to reconsider his positions? The nuanced answer is that probably not in terms of a radical change of course — but potentially yes in terms of increasing internal costs to the point of altering the cost-benefit calculus of the war for the Russian elites surrounding the president. The degradation of Russian military logistics could also give Ukraine tactical advantages on the ground.

ISW analyses indicate that the pace of Russian advances has slowed since November 2025, and that Ukraine's strike campaign "is inhibiting Russian logistics in occupied territories in ways that are beginning to manifest on the front line." If 40 days of heightened pressure accelerate this trend, the result may not be peace — but it will be a better Ukrainian position on the ground for any future negotiations.

The Russian reaction: between denial and escalation

The Kremlin downplays, Putin instrumentalizes

The official Russian reaction to the announcement of the 40-day operation was predictable. Authorities claimed to be intercepting the majority of drones and missiles, denied the scale of damage to energy infrastructure, and framed Ukrainian strikes as terrorist acts targeting civilians. Putin for his part instrumentalized the situation by declaring that everything Kyiv does aims to "create conditions favorable for future position-of-strength negotiations" — a formulation that implicitly acknowledges that Ukrainian pressure is real.

Russia retaliated with 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 189 drones against Ukraine on the night of June 25–26. Brutal attacks on Ukrainian civilians — but ones that do not reverse the economic pressure that Ukrainian strikes are exerting on Russia's industrial and logistical capacity.

The Kremlin spokesman on American mediators

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted on June 26, 2026 that American envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were "busy with other files" and that discussions with them were expected to resume once those matters were concluded. This statement reveals a Russian dependence on American mediators that Moscow would rather not advertise — and an indirect acknowledgment that the diplomatic process is at a standstill.

Meanwhile, Lukashenko's Belarus continues to build military infrastructure along the border with Ukraine — roads, ammunition and fuel depots — according to information confirmed by Zelensky. But Belarusian drone relay stations used in attacks against Ukraine were neutralized by Ukrainian operations on June 22.

Strikes on refineries: a documented economic lever

The impact on Russia's fuel supply

Data available at the end of June 2026 indicate that more than 50 of Russia's 83 regions had imposed restrictions on gasoline sales — a direct consequence of repeated strikes on refineries. The Moscow refinery will not resume production before the end of 2026. Refineries in Ufa, Krasnodar, and other regions have sustained significant damage. These shortages are beginning to affect the mobility of Russian civilians — and, more strategically, the logistics of Russian armed forces in combat zones.

Ukraine calls these operations "sanctions" — a bold rhetorical framing that equates strikes with instruments of economic pressure. This is more than a figure of speech: it is a coherent strategy that targets Russian state revenues rather than its direct military capabilities. Reducing oil revenues means reducing Moscow's ability to fund its war machine. On this point, the strikes and Western sanctions are working in the same direction.

ISW figures on Ukrainian strikes

According to the ISW, Ukraine conducted 210 intermediate strikes in May 2026 and 145 in June through June 22. Of the 28 strikes on oil infrastructure in June alone, the cumulative effects on Russian logistical capacity are measurable. These data are not projections — they are documented, open-source results that establish the partial effectiveness of the strike campaign even before the formal announcement of the 40-day operation.

Zelensky's decision to formalize and amplify this strategy in the form of a formal 40-day operation is therefore grounded in concrete results, not hopes. It is a data-driven decision — and that is exactly what strategic decision-making in wartime should be.

Escalation risks: a question that deserves an honest answer

Can Putin respond disproportionately?

The legitimate question the 40-day operation raises is that of escalation. If Ukrainian strikes reach unprecedented levels of intensity — the wave of June 25–26, with 660 drones intercepted according to Russia, is already described as "the largest of 2026" — Putin could decide to escalate his own strikes on Ukrainian cities, or even resort to more destructive weapons. This scenario cannot be dismissed.

Russia already launched 7 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 189 drones against Ukraine on the night of June 25–26. These attacks are brutal and ongoing — but they are not qualitatively different from what has been happening for months. Moscow currently appears to be maintaining a symmetrical rather than disproportionate escalation. That calculus could change — but so far, Russia has not deployed the gravest elements of its escalation threat arsenal.

The threat of tactical nuclear weapons

The Russian nuclear threat — brandished on multiple occasions since 2022 — remains in the back of minds. But analysts at the ISW and Western intelligence services regularly assess that the threshold for using tactical nuclear weapons is extremely high for Moscow: the diplomatic, economic, and military consequences would be catastrophic for Russia, including with its own allies such as China. This is not certainty — but it is a structural constraint that Putin himself has so far respected.

In this context, Zelensky's 40-day operation is a calculated bet that Russia will stay within the bounds of conventional escalation. It is a risky bet — but one grounded in precedents and analysis, not blind recklessness.

Conclusion: a courageous strategy with real risks

The limits of pressure through strikes

The 40-day operation is bold, but it is not without risks. Russia could respond by escalating its own strikes on Ukrainian cities. It could attempt to accelerate its ground operations to offset the economic pressure. And if after 40 days Moscow does not budge, Zelensky will have to decide what to do next — without being able to indefinitely defer the question of negotiations on current terms.

But also an inexorable logic

Despite these risks, the underlying logic is sound: Russia will not come to the table in good faith as long as it believes it can win militarily. Making the continuation of the war sufficiently costly — in lives, in fuel, in rubles — is the only realistic way to create the conditions for an acceptable peace. Zelensky's 40-day operation may be the most genuinely diplomatic phase of the entire war. And its opening hours prove it means business.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

My position and my limits

I have covered this conflict from the outset with an openly pro-Ukrainian stance. I believe Ukraine has the right to defend itself by all legal means available, including deep strikes on Russian territory. This bias influences my analysis — I acknowledge it openly. I do not have access to classified data on the precise targets of the operation.

Method and uncertainties

This article is based on open sources dated to June 2026, primarily the ISW, the Kyiv Independent, Reuters, Bloomberg, The Guardian, and Ukrainska Pravda. I do not know what Russia is actually doing behind the scenes in response to this campaign. I also do not know whether 40 days will be enough to produce a measurable change in Russian behavior. These uncertainties are real and significant.

Sources

Primary sources

Kyiv Independent — Ukraine's SBU to wage 40-day pressure campaign against Russia, Zelensky says — June 25, 2026

Ukrainska Pravda — Zelensky approves SBU 40-day influence operation targeting Russia — June 25, 2026

UNITED24 Media — Zelensky announces 40-day SBU operation to pressure Russia to end the war — June 25, 2026

ISW — Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 26, 2026 — June 27, 2026

Secondary sources

Euronews — Ukraine launches 40-day operation to "pressure Russia to end the war" — June 26, 2026

The Guardian — Zelensky announces 40-day Russia blitz to "influence the aggressor state" — June 26, 2026

RBC-Ukraine — Russia's economy has reached a dead end — June 26, 2026