FACT CHECK: Trump’s “millions” are false, and StatCan counts 154,614 fewer temporary residents

Suitcases on the sidewalk

September 23, two texts

Donald Trump wrote on September 23, 2026, that Canada is “destroying itself.” In his telling, “millions” of people are getting in without checks.

The number is false. The claim about screening at the door is false. The rest has to be sorted, piece by piece.

That same day, Statistics Canada published its own count. Not in millions. Down to the last person.

As of July 1, 2026, the country had 41,798,407 people. And 154,614 fewer non-permanent residents than a year earlier.

He says millions. StatCan says minus 154,614.

Two texts. The same Wednesday. Two different countries.

Down 140,827 study permits

Behind that drop, first of all, are students. Study permit holders fell by 140,827 in a year, according to the agency.

People holding both a study permit and a work permit fell by 81,163.

You can hear the wheels of a suitcase on the sidewalk. A lease is ending. Someone sits on the lid to close it. The key stays on the counter.

The country in the post is overflowing. The country in the agency’s count is emptying out a little.

Not crowds coming in. Rooms emptying out.

Four sentences, no evidence

What the post says

Here is the claim as The Canadian Press and CBC reported it.

Canada is “destroying itself.” It is letting in “millions” of people. They arrive “essentially unchecked and unvetted.”

That is causing problems. They “will soon be too big to handle.” It is a “Liberal takeover that will end very badly.”

He added that the policy is already producing high unemployment, The Canadian Press reports.

Nothing attached

The wire service notes it in one line. Trump provided no evidence.

No source. No table. No date.

A fact check does not grade tone. It grades what can be counted. Four claims here can be counted: the number, the screening, the unemployment, the destruction.

The “Liberal takeover” line targets an elected government. That belongs to Canadian domestic politics. Not to statistics. It stays out of this.

A president counting in millions. An agency counting one by one. And in between…

Four sentences, not one number behind them.

Below the 400,000 line

Same day, five numbers

The same day, Statistics Canada put growth at 189,425 people in a year. That is 0.5%.

The same day, the agency called it the weakest annual increase since 1944–45.

The same day, it counted 368,224 new permanent immigrants in 2025–26. A fourth straight annual decline.

The same day, it noted that the figure had slipped below 400,000. A first since 2021–22. That is in line with the Immigration Department’s lowered targets, the agency said.

The same day, it called the drop in non-permanent residents the steepest since 1971–72, when comparable data begins.

Five numbers. None in the millions.

The quarterly detail points the same way. In the second quarter of 2026, the country took in 99,148 immigrants. That is 4.2% fewer than a year earlier.

Temporary arrivals down 66%

One detail gives the scale. Growth in 2025–26 was weaker than in 2020–21, when border restrictions were slowing the pandemic. Back then: 211,226 people.

The Canadian Press adds a figure from the department. From January to July 2026, temporary resident arrivals were 66% lower than over the same stretch of 2024.

This fact check says one simple thing. Trump’s post describes a Canada that did exist. It stamps it with a 2026 date.

On the “millions,” the rating comes down.

False.

Millions, no. Under two hundred thousand, all in.

More than a million, before

From 2022 to 2024

Now for what gives Trump a foothold. It exists. It carries weight.

From 2022 to 2024, Canada took in more than one million newcomers a year. Mostly temporary residents, Canadian Affairs and the Financial Post report.

Federal figures compiled by the parliamentary budget officer, cited by CBC, put the peak in 2023: 789,000 new temporary residents.

2023, a peak. 2025, a net loss of 382,000 temporary residents, according to the same compilation.

In between, Ottawa dropped its goal of 500,000 permanent residents a year, The Canadian Press recalls. It set targets for international students and temporary workers.

And yet Trump’s number is two years old. It describes the wave. Not the ebb.

Anand admits it

On September 23, Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand answered on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. “Let’s put some facts on the table,” she said, according to CBC.

She defended what immigration has done for prosperity. She also acknowledged that past levels were too high, CBC reports.

Justice Minister Sean Fraser ran Immigration during a period of especially heavy migration. He is the one now calling Trump’s description inaccurate.

In the fall of 2025, 56% of Canadians felt the country was taking in too many immigrants, IRCC notes in its levels plan.

The wave happened. Canadians saw it.

A million did exist, under another date.

Fingerprints, databases, three agencies

Sections 34, 35 and 37

Second claim: people getting in without screening.

The Immigration Department’s website says the opposite, The Canadian Press points out. Visitors, temporary foreign workers, students, immigrants and refugees all go through comprehensive security screening.

An IRCC note prepared for a Senate committee, dated February 9, 2026, lays out the mechanics. A trained officer assesses every application.

The screening checks the grounds of inadmissibility in sections 34, 35 and 37 of the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act. Security. Human or international rights violations. Organized criminality.

Three agencies work on it with IRCC, according to the same note. The Canada Border Services Agency. The Canadian Security Intelligence Service. The Royal Canadian Mounted Police.

Most applicants for permanent residence must also provide a police certificate, the note adds.

A finger on the glass

There are fingerprints. One finger on the cold glass of the scanner, then the next. They are checked against national and international databases, according to IRCC.

There are the allies, too. When an applicant provides biometrics, IRCC can receive information from partners in the Migration Five group. Including the United States.

So Washington is part of the screen it says does not exist.

The screen is not airtight, for all that. CBC notes that alleged members of the Bishnoi criminal gang entered the country on study permits. Some advocates want a closer look at international students.

The screen exists. It runs through Washington too.

The ones who stayed

A bigger revision than usual

And yet the word “unchecked” is not entirely empty. Not at the door. At the exit.

On September 23, Statistics Canada applied two new adjustments to its count of non-permanent residents.

The first draws on entry and exit data from the Canada Border Services Agency. The agency acquired it recently. The second accounts for people who stay while their permit extension is being processed.

So Statistics Canada revised its estimates back to July 1, 2021. It calls the update larger than usual.

Entries were counted. Exits were estimated.

Canadian Affairs gives a sense of what slipped past the count. Between January 2023 and July 2025, nearly 70,000 people who came in on study or work visas claimed asylum. An asylum claim can stretch a stay by several years.

Minus 236,000 became plus 190,000

The Globe and Mail set the two counts side by side. Under the old one, the population had lost 236,000 people between mid-2025 and April 1, 2026. Under the new one, it gained about 190,000.

They assumed more people were leaving than really were, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal told the Financial Post.

I do not like writing that a statistic got it wrong. That is what it says about itself, though. In plain words.

The count I set against the millions has moved. By about 300,000 people from the previous quarter, according to a note from RBC economist Rachel Battaglia, cited by the Financial Post.

How many stayed without being counted?

We checked the entry. We guessed the exit.

6.7% against a 5% target

The Throne Speech commitment

The second discomfort comes from Ottawa’s own targets.

As of July 1, 2026, Canada had 2,779,774 non-permanent residents, according to Statistics Canada. That is 6.7% of the population. The peak dates to October 1, 2024: 7.2%.

In the Speech from the Throne, the government committed to bringing that share below 5% by the end of 2027. IRCC restates it in its 2026–2028 levels plan.

The revision complicates the promise. The share is falling more slowly than we thought. The target will be hard to hit, write Daren King and Matthieu Arseneau, economists at National Bank, cited by The Globe and Mail.

Then there is asylum. In August 2026, about 259,000 claims were waiting at the Immigration and Refugee Board, against 70,000 at the end of 2022, Canadian Affairs reports.

The number is starting to turn, though. In the second quarter, asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups fell by 7,015, to 530,090. Their first quarterly decline since January 1, 2022, according to Statistics Canada.

380,000, plus one-time measures

The plan sets 380,000 permanent resident admissions a year from 2026 to 2028.

The plan sets 385,000 temporary resident arrivals in 2026. Then 370,000 in 2027 and again in 2028.

The plan also includes two one-time measures. About 115,000 protected persons already in Canada will move to permanent residence in 2026 and 2027, on top of the targets. Up to 33,000 work permit holders will follow the same path.

This is planned immigration. It is also more than the headline number.

The target falls more slowly than the promise.

6.4% against 4.1%

A gap of more than two points

Third claim: unemployment.

On the gap, Trump is right. Canada’s unemployment rate was 6.4% in August. The U.S. rate was 4.1%, The Canadian Press reports.

On September 4, Statistics Canada added that employment fell by 42,000 in August. Among 15- to 24-year-olds, unemployment reached 12.9%.

More than one young worker in eight is looking for a job. Without finding one.

Average hourly wages rose only 2.0% over the year. The slowest gain since November 2017, according to the agency.

The cause, missing

And yet the causal link is not shown. Trump asserts it. He does not demonstrate it.

The same September 4 release shows a steady rate in August. It had just fallen three months running, from May to July. Over the same months, temporary arrivals were down by two-thirds from 2024.

If arrivals were producing unemployment, what does unemployment do when arrivals melt away?

Canadian unemployment has causes. The post names only one. Without proof.

The gap is real. The link is still unproven.

The twentysomethings who leave

Down 154,973

There is one number the post never looks at.

In one year, Canada has 154,973 fewer people in their twenties, according to Statistics Canada. Down 63,838 among 20- to 24-year-olds. Down 91,135 among 25- to 29-year-olds.

Gone.

The agency draws the link itself. The decline lines up with the drop in study permit holders. International students are mostly young adults.

The people the post points at often look like this. A student card. A shared room. A one-way plane ticket.

An aging country

The country is aging again, the agency writes. The median age reaches 40.9 years. People 65 and older make up 20% of the population.

During the big waves, the median age had dropped. The newcomers were young. They leave young.

Somewhere, parents wait for the Sunday call. Here, a shared apartment posts a listing. A chair sits empty at the first lecture.

That is the threat described on September 23. It is the age of the departures. It has a suitcase. It is leaving.

The people he points at are the ones leaving.

0.5%, north and south

The Census Bureau’s number

Fourth claim: Canada is “destroying itself.”

That is not a number. It is a judgment. And yet it can be measured against something.

According to CBC, Canada’s 0.5% growth is roughly what the Census Bureau measures in the United States.

The Census Bureau put it in writing on January 27, 2026. The U.S. population grew 0.5% between July 1, 2024, and July 1, 2025. It reached 341.8 million.

1.3 million to the south

The same release explains the slowdown by a historic drop in net international migration. It fell from 2.7 million to 1.3 million.

The two periods do not quite line up. They still show which side of the border was counting in millions.

In the north, the three big receiving provinces are slowing the most. Ontario grew 0.3%, Quebec 0.2%, British Columbia 0.1%, according to Statistics Canada.

Same growth rate. Only one country accused of destroying itself.

Two countries at 0.5%, only one in the dock.

A week of posts

Since the talks broke down

It is also worth looking at when the post lands.

Since the trade talks collapsed and a new round of tariffs followed, the president has been fixated on Canada and its leaders, CBC writes.

There was Europe. The week before, Trump called the closer ties Mark Carney is proposing with the European Union “laughable.”

There was potash. On Monday, he talked about buying Belarus’s potash instead of Canada’s. Then he walked it back.

There was immigration. On Wednesday, Canada is “destroying itself.”

He also called Canada a “terrible trade partner,” CBC reports.

September 23, one addressee

One topic a day. One country in the crosshairs.

The post may serve less to describe Canada than to keep the pressure on it. That is an inference drawn from the calendar. Not an established fact.

It comes while Washington’s tariffs remain deeply unpopular in the United States, CBC writes.

A new topic each day, one addressee.

False, false, true, unproven

The number and the screening

Here is the rating, claim by claim.

Millions in 2026: FALSE. Total growth is 189,425 people. Non-permanent residents are declining.

Millions over three years, from 2022 to 2024: right in order of magnitude. Canada was then taking in more than a million newcomers a year.

Unchecked: false at the door. Every application goes through screening. Blurry at the exit. Statistics Canada had to correct its count.

Unemployment and destruction

Unemployment higher than in the United States: true. 6.4% against 4.1%.

Caused by immigration: not demonstrated.

A country “destroying itself”: a judgment. The growth numbers do not back it up.

Overall rating: MISLEADING. A number from the 2023 wave. Served up as a 2026 finding.

Misleading, because it was true two years ago.

The record gets fixed, the post doesn’t

February 10, 2027

The rating could shift. Two things would shift it.

On February 10, 2027, Statistics Canada will release the first figures from the 2026 census. If they revealed far more temporary residents than expected, the part of the post that holds up would grow.

If the Canada Border Services Agency’s exit data showed more departures that were assumed but never happened, the 5% target would slip further away.

Either way, our own records will settle it. Not a Wednesday post.

A record. Not a rumor.

Our share of the count

Will we answer Washington’s “millions” with a count that just moved by 300,000 people?

Ottawa’s rebuttal holds. It will hold better with an accurate record.

Statistics Canada recounted in public. The September 23 post recounted nothing.

He said millions. The country is recounting, one by one, the people who leave.

Sources:

Primary Sources:

• Statistics Canada — population estimates as of July 1, 2026, September 23, 2026
• The Canadian Press (Global News) — Trump’s immigration post, September 23, 2026
• IRCC — 2026–2028 immigration levels plan, December 4, 2025

Secondary Sources:

• CBC News — ministers Anand and Fraser respond to Trump, September 23, 2026
• The Globe and Mail — population estimate revised upward, September 24, 2026
• Canadian Affairs — the revised count of non-permanent residents, September 26, 2026