Thank You, Bulgaria, for Proving NATO Can Still Keep Its Word

Introduction: a visit that deserves more than a footnote

What happened in Sofia

Dear reader, let me tell you about a diplomatic visit that made no headlines anywhere in North America, yet deserves our full attention. General Alexus Grynkewich, the new Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), traveled to Bulgaria on July 1 and 2, 2026, at the invitation of the Bulgarian chief of defense, Admiral Emil Eftimov. There he met with President Roumen Radev and Defense Minister Dimitar Stoyanov.

This visit took place at a pivotal moment: just before the NATO summit in Ankara, scheduled for July 7 and 8, 2026, where nearly 100 delegations are expected. The message sent from Sofia was clear: the Alliance's southeastern flank is preparing, modernizing, and coordinating.

Why I'm writing you this open letter

I'm choosing the open letter format because this kind of story deserves to be told directly, without bureaucratic filtering, to you who have followed the war in Ukraine and the West's posture for years. Bulgaria, often seen as a secondary link in NATO, has just demonstrated something important: small countries can keep their word when the big ones hesitate.

This letter is addressed as much to Bulgarian citizens funding this defense effort as to Western readers more broadly, who sometimes feel that NATO is just a string of broken promises.

What General Grynkewich said, word for word

A rare and well-earned recognition

According to remarks reported by Fakti.bg, General Grynkewich delivered a remarkably glowing assessment of Bulgaria as an ally: "A stronger Bulgaria contributes to a stronger Europe and a stronger NATO," he said, adding that the country "not only meets its commitments made in The Hague in 2025, but has already exceeded the 2% of GDP defense requirement."

That's no minor detail. In an Alliance where several members still struggle to reach the 2% threshold, seeing a country like Bulgaria exceed it, with a trajectory toward 5% of GDP by 2035, deserves to be highlighted loudly.

The concrete proof behind the words

The general noted that Bulgaria has already received its first batch of eight F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and is awaiting delivery of 183 Stryker combat vehicles. These aren't distant promises: they are ongoing, documented, verifiable deliveries.

This material modernization comes alongside less visible but equally crucial work: increasing the interoperability of the Bulgarian army within NATO's command structures, an effort that takes years to bear fruit.

Black Sea security, a stated strategic priority

A theater too often forgotten

Discussions in Sofia focused heavily on Black Sea security, a strategic theater that remains, in my view, under-covered by Western media compared to other fronts. Yet this is where a crucial part of the West's ability to contain Russian ambitions in the region is being decided.

Strengthening joint missions between Bulgaria, Romania, and Turkey to protect critical underwater infrastructure is a direct response to suspected sabotage incidents on cables and pipelines observed in the region in recent years.

A trilateral coordination taking shape

This cooperation among three Black Sea coastal countries, each with its own national priorities, is not a diplomatic given. The fact that it is progressing concretely, with joint missions already under active discussion, reflects a regional strategic maturity that deserves to be praised rather than taken for granted.

This trilateral dynamic could, in time, become a model for other sensitive areas of NATO's eastern flank, where coordination between neighbors is often more complicated than advertised.

The Bulgarian example against the lag of some allies

An uncomfortable but necessary contrast

It must be said plainly: not all NATO members behave like Bulgaria. Several historic allies, richer and more populous, still struggle to reach the collectively agreed defense spending thresholds, which has fueled years of criticism, notably from Donald Trump, over the unequal sharing of the burden within the Alliance.

On this specific point, I must admit that Trump's criticism of certain European partners deemed too timid on their defense budgets was not without merit, even if his communication style has often been seen as blunt by European diplomats.

What Bulgaria concretely proves

Bulgaria's trajectory shows that a country with more limited economic resources than Germany or France can, with clear political will, exceed its obligations to the Alliance. That removes an easy argument from those who claim the Western defense effort is structurally impossible to sustain.

This contrast should, logically, serve as a spur for European capitals still dragging their feet on their budgetary commitments to NATO.

The Ankara summit as backdrop

A visit timed deliberately

The timing chosen for this visit is no accident. Traveling to Bulgaria just before the Ankara summit on July 7 and 8, 2026, allows the SACEUR to arrive at the table with concrete success stories to present to other Alliance members.

Turkey, hosting the summit, has voiced clear expectations regarding unity and solidarity among allies, a message the Bulgarian visit reinforces through example rather than through speeches alone.

What can be hoped for from Ankara

Without giving in to naive optimism, it's reasonable to hope that the Ankara summit will further consolidate the commitments made in The Hague in 2025, particularly on the trajectory toward 5% of GDP devoted to defense by 2035, an ambitious goal now considered achievable by several capitals.

The presence of nearly 100 delegations at this summit testifies to the diplomatic scale of the event, in a geopolitical context where every signal of Western cohesion matters against the ambitions of Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran.

Bulgarian military modernization, a foundational effort

From aircraft to armored vehicles

Beyond the F-16 Block 70s already delivered, Bulgaria is undertaking a complete overhaul of its ground capabilities with the announced arrival of 183 Stryker vehicles. This modernization thus touches both the air and land components of its military, an effort rarely pursued so simultaneously by a country of this size.

This material transformation fits within a broader budgetary framework in which Bulgaria has managed to turn financial resources into real combat capabilities, according to General Grynkewich's own remarks during his visit.

The role of European funds in this transformation

This modernization isn't happening in a vacuum. Discussions in Sofia also covered the more effective use of financial instruments from the Alliance and the European Union on defense matters, notably to expand regional connectivity among neighboring countries on the southeastern flank.

This linkage between European funding and NATO military objectives illustrates a growing institutional convergence between the two organizations, long criticized for bureaucratic redundancies.

The shadow cast by the war in Ukraine over this visit

A southeastern flank looking east with concern

It's impossible to understand this visit without placing it in the context of Russia's war against Ukraine since 2022. The Black Sea is directly affected by this conflict, whether through tensions on maritime traffic, incidents involving drifting mines, or Russian military maneuvers in the region.

Strengthening NATO's southeastern flank is therefore not a theoretical exercise: it is a direct response to a neighborhood that has become objectively more dangerous since the Russian invasion.

President Zelensky, a moral reference point of this era

In this context, the Ukrainian resistance led for years by President Volodymyr Zelensky continues to serve as a moral reference point for all countries on NATO's eastern flank, Bulgaria included, who see military firmness as a condition of survival rather than one diplomatic option among others.

This de facto solidarity between southeastern flank countries and besieged Ukraine illustrates a regional awareness that collective security is no longer negotiable at the margins.

The legitimate criticisms that shouldn't be brushed aside

Reasonable skepticism about long-term goals

It would be dishonest to present this visit as an unqualified success story. Some regional analysts, cited by several Bulgarian media outlets, remain skeptical about Bulgaria's real capacity to maintain its spending trajectory through 2035, particularly in the event of an economic slowdown or a domestic political shift.

This skepticism deserves to be heard rather than dismissed out of hand: fifteen-year budgetary commitments are, by nature, more fragile than material deliveries already completed.

Internal Bulgarian political tensions to watch

Bulgaria is also going through internal debates over certain regional naval cooperation proposals, notably around a Romanian proposal for a joint naval force that has sparked divisions between the prime minister and President Radev, according to reports from Novinite.

These internal tensions are a reminder that the cohesion on display during official visits shouldn't mask very real political debates over the best way to deliver on these defense commitments.

What this means for the rest of Eastern Europe

An example for Romania and Greece to follow

Bulgaria's trajectory could serve as a model for other southeastern flank countries like Romania and Greece, both facing similar military modernization challenges amid a regional environment more unstable than a decade ago.

This regional dynamic, if it holds, could gradually transform NATO's entire southeastern flank into a zone of credible deterrence rather than a link perceived as secondary compared to the more heavily covered northeastern flank.

Turkey's role as host and key player

Turkey, by hosting the Ankara summit, is also positioning itself as a central player in this regional dynamic, despite sometimes tense relations with certain Western partners on other diplomatic matters.

Turkey's ability to play a unifying role on southeastern flank security issues, while maintaining distinct positions on other international matters, illustrates both the complexity and the resilience of the Alliance's internal balances.

Why this story deserves your attention, dear reader

Against NATO media fatigue

I know many of you feel a kind of fatigue toward the repeated announcements of NATO reinforcement, since they often sound alike from one press release to the next. That's exactly why I wanted to single out this Bulgarian visit: because it contains verifiable numbers, concrete deliveries, and well-earned public recognition, rather than a mere communications exercise.

In a world saturated with hollow announcements, distinguishing kept commitments from empty promises strikes me as a minimal journalistic duty, especially on subjects as crucial as Western collective security.

A useful reminder in the face of the West's rivals

As China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea continue to test Western cohesion on several fronts simultaneously, every concrete example of effective solidarity within NATO deserves to be documented and praised, rather than drowned in the continuous flow of bad geopolitical news.

Bulgaria reminds us, at its own scale, that Western firmness remains possible when the political will genuinely exists, beyond mere speeches.

Lessons for future NATO summits

Transparency as a tool of credibility

One of the most useful lessons from this Bulgarian visit is the value of numerical transparency: giving precise percentages, concrete delivery dates, measurable long-term goals. This approach strengthens the Alliance's credibility far more effectively than vague diplomatic phrases about "continued strengthening of the partnership."

Future NATO summits, including the one in Ankara, would benefit from generalizing this practice of numerical, verifiable communication across all member countries, rather than reserving it for the occasional star pupil.

The need for rigorous follow-up over time

It will be necessary to track, in the years ahead, whether Bulgaria actually maintains its trajectory toward 5% of GDP in 2035, and whether other southeastern flank countries manage to align with this example rather than simply admiring the Bulgarian performance from a distance.

This rigorous, multi-year follow-up will be the real test of the sincerity of this commitment, well beyond General Grynkewich's single ceremonial visit to Sofia.

What I personally take away from this visit

Cautious pride, not triumphalism

I'm closing this letter with a form of cautious pride for Bulgaria, without falling into misplaced triumphalism. A country of roughly 6.5 million people exceeding its obligations to the Alliance deserves to be cited as an example, without that erasing the structural challenges that remain, notably economic and demographic ones.

This cautious pride comes with necessary vigilance: the commitments made today will need to be honored year after year, in a budgetary context that could tighten.

A message of measured hope for the whole West

If a country with more limited resources than its wealthier Western neighbors can sustain this pace of defense investment, that should inspire a form of measured hope for the entire Western camp facing simultaneous challenges from Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

It's this measured hope, grounded in verifiable facts rather than wishful thinking, that I wanted to share with you through this open letter.

What this concretely changes for Western deterrence

One more piece in a larger puzzle

Bulgarian modernization alone does not change the overall strategic balance against Russia. But it constitutes one more piece, concrete and verifiable, in a puzzle of collective deterrence that only works if every link holds its position.

This logic of cumulative deterrence, where every national contribution counts, is precisely what distinguishes NATO from a mere alliance on paper: it's a sum of concrete commitments, verifiable country by country.

The signal sent to Moscow

For Moscow, every example of credible reinforcement on the southeastern flank represents an additional signal that the window of opportunity for regional escalation is progressively closing, as Western capabilities strengthen concretely rather than symbolically.

It is this accumulation of signals, more than any single isolated statement, that truly shapes the Kremlin's strategic calculations about its future room to maneuver.

What Western allies should take from this example

A workable model of military communication

Too often, Western defense press releases drown in technocratic jargon impossible to relay to the general public. The direct style adopted by General Grynkewich, with precise figures and dated goals, offers a communication model other senior NATO officers would do well to replicate during their own bilateral visits.

This clarity of communication isn't a cosmetic detail: it strengthens the Western public's understanding of defense spending sometimes perceived as abstract or disconnected from their everyday lives.

An invitation to document successes as much as failures

Western media, including outlets aligned with a pro-Ukraine and pro-NATO editorial line like ours, sometimes tend to focus more on crises and diplomatic failures than on concrete successes like the one documented in Sofia.

Correcting this imbalance, without slipping into blind propaganda, strikes me as essential to maintaining public trust in Western collective defense institutions over the long run.

Conclusion: a letter of cautious gratitude to an ally who delivers

What to take away from this visit

This visit by General Grynkewich to Bulgaria, on July 1 and 2, 2026, will remain a concrete and documented example of what a determined NATO ally can achieve: exceeded budgetary targets, verifiable material deliveries, and strengthened regional coordination on the Black Sea.

As the Ankara summit approaches, this kind of example deserves to be highlighted, not as an end in itself, but as a reminder that Western firmness remains possible when political will genuinely exists.

What will need to keep being watched

It remains to be seen whether this momentum holds in the years ahead, whether other southeastern flank countries follow this example, and whether Bulgaria's internal tensions over certain regional proposals find a constructive rather than paralyzing resolution.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I sign this open letter as a columnist for MadMax, with a stated pro-Western and pro-NATO editorial line. I consider Western military firmness a necessity in the face of the ambitions of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. I have no personal ties to the Bulgarian government or to the military officials named in this piece.

On this specific matter, I credit Donald Trump for his sustained pressure on burden-sharing within NATO, while reserving my critical judgment for his domestic American excesses, which are addressed in other, separate pieces.

What I don't know and my method

I don't know whether Bulgaria will actually maintain its budgetary trajectory through 2035, nor how the internal tensions mentioned over regional naval cooperation will be resolved. My method consisted of relying on direct quotes reported by verifiable Bulgarian and international media outlets, without extrapolating beyond what these sources explicitly document.

Sources

Primary sources

Fakti.bg — NATO's Europe chief continues his key visit to Bulgaria — July 2, 2026

BTA — NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe Gen. Alexus Grynkewich to visit Bulgaria — June 30, 2026

BTA — By end of 2026, Bulgaria will have 12 pilots capable of flying F-16 Block 70

Secondary sources

Novinite — Romania's Joint Naval Force Proposal Leaves Bulgaria PM, President Divided

Brussels Times — NATO praises Bulgaria's defence strides as Black Sea tension takes centre stage — May 29, 2026

BNR — Two transport corridors are a priority to deploy NATO forces