Thank You Seoul, K-Defense Is Saving Western Deterrence

Introduction: a letter to an ally that delivers when it counts

Dear Seoul, you have become indispensable

Dear South Korean government, dear engineers and workers of Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Rotem, Korea Aerospace Industries, and LIG Nex1, I write this open letter because the Western world owes you a gratitude it doesn't express often enough. In 2025, your country became the world's fourth-largest arms exporter, a rise as rapid as it is strategically vital for the security of Europe.

According to an analysis of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute data conducted by the newspaper Hankyoreh, South Korea's share of global arms exports climbed to 6% last year, its highest level ever recorded. You went from 3.6% in 2024, which placed you eighth, to this fourth-place position among exporting powers, an 83% increase in a single year.

Overtaking historic arms-industry giants

What you have accomplished is no small matter: you have surpassed Russia, Italy, Germany, China, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands in the global ranking of arms exporters. Only the United States with 42%, France with roughly 10%, and Israel with 7.8% still rank ahead of you.

At a time when the war in Ukraine brutally reminded the West of the urgent need to rebuild its military production capacity, your industry stepped up at the exact moment Europe needed it most.

The context that made this rise possible

The war in Ukraine as a historic accelerator

Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, arms exports have become one of the fastest-growing sectors of the South Korean economy, securing multibillion-dollar contracts for a full range of products, from artillery to missiles to warships, according to Reuters.

Poland, in particular, has become a flagship client since 2022, buying K2 tanks, K9 Thunder self-propelled howitzers, and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers — a contract that remains, even today, one of the largest arms deals in South Korean history.

Sharp export growth despite a temporary dip

According to the Seoul Economic Daily, South Korean defense exports jumped 60% year-over-year to reach 15.4 billion dollars in 2025, the second-highest total on record after the 17.3 billion dollars of 2022. The number of destination countries also rose from seven in 2022, including Poland and the United Arab Emirates, to sixteen last year — a remarkable diversification of export markets.

This diversification now protects South Korea from excessive dependence on a single client, a strategic lesson other Western defense industries would do well to study closely.

Record profits at the four major defense groups

An unprecedented leap in profitability

According to CHOSUNBIZ, South Korea's "big four" defense groups — Hanwha Aerospace, Hyundai Rotem, Korea Aerospace Industries, and LIG Nex1 — posted a spectacular rise in profits, driven by exports and new international partnerships. Their combined revenue reached roughly 40.9 trillion won in 2025, up 81.6% year-over-year.

Analysts at several South Korean brokerages now project that the combined revenue of these four companies could reach 37.4 billion dollars in 2026, a growth trajectory that would confirm South Korea's lasting place among the world's major arms powers.

Hanwha Aerospace leading the charge

Hanwha Aerospace, the country's largest defense company, reported a 21% rise in quarterly operating profit in the first quarter of 2026, according to the Seoul Economic Daily. Since 2022, the company has sold its K9 Thunder howitzers to Poland, Estonia, Romania, and Norway, alongside its Chunmoo rocket launcher systems.

This strong financial performance allows the company to reinvest heavily in research and development, consolidating a competitive edge that could prove durable against Western competitors sometimes slowed by more sluggish and bureaucratic procurement processes.

The ambitious 20-billion-dollar target

A clear target set by Seoul

According to South Korea's defense acquisition agency, DAPA, the country now aims for 20 billion dollars in arms exports by 2030, with the ambition of reaching a 6% share of the global market. DAPA Minister Lee Yong-cheol noted that South Korea had surpassed 15 billion dollars in exports in 2025, marking the end of two consecutive years of decline.

Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-back stressed the need to further strengthen export efforts, stating that the country is "engaged in a race to become one of the top four nations in the arms sector."

Latin America, a new strategic frontier

Beyond Europe, South Korea is now betting on a breakthrough in Latin America, a region where competition from traditional Western suppliers remains less intense than in the European market. This geographic diversification is part of a long-term strategy aimed at not relying solely on orders tied to the war in Ukraine context, which could one day dry up.

This cautious approach reflects an industrial vision that goes beyond mere short-term opportunism: Seoul is building a lasting commercial presence, not just a one-off response to the current European crisis.

The strategic role for European deterrence

Filling the void left by decades of disarmament

For decades, several European countries scaled back their military production capacity, convinced that continental peace was secured after the end of the Cold War. Russia's invasion of Ukraine brutally exposed the limits of that assumption, forcing Europe to urgently rebuild stockpiles and production capacities it had allowed to erode.

South Korea, thanks to a defense industrial base that remained robust — a direct legacy of the permanent tension with North Korea — was able to fill a significant part of that void faster than many European manufacturers themselves, often constrained by aging production lines.

Poland, the showcase of this strategic cooperation

Poland remains the most emblematic client of this relationship, having signed what remains one of the largest arms deals in recent history, including roughly a thousand tanks, hundreds of pieces of self-propelled artillery, and dozens of fighter jets. This Polish-Korean partnership concretely illustrates how an Asian ally can directly strengthen NATO's eastern flank against the Russian threat.

This cooperation goes beyond a simple commercial transaction: it creates lasting industrial and military ties between Seoul and Warsaw, reinforcing the cohesion of a broader Western front against Moscow's revisionist ambitions.

A European second place that changes the equation

Behind the United States, ahead of everyone else

According to the Institute for Security and Development Policy, South Korea is now the second-largest supplier of weapons to European NATO member states, just behind the United States, with a European market share of about 8.6%. This position now surpasses historic arms powers like Israel and France in this specific market.

This rapid rise, documented by several independent research institutes, shows just how much the Western defense architecture has transformed in just a few years, integrating non-traditional partners into its collective deterrence framework.

A growth trajectory that has military analysts taking notice

Retired Lieutenant General Chun In-bum, interviewed by the Institute for Security and Development Policy, notes that South Korea, starting from a status as a mere arms importer, rose to become the world's fourth-largest exporter in 2025, gaining six spots in a single year — a trajectory with virtually no equivalent in the recent history of the global defense industry.

This rapid rise, however, comes with legitimate questions about the South Korean industry's ability to sustain such a growth pace over the long term, particularly regarding skilled labor and supply chains for critical components.

The risks and limits of this rapid growth

Still-significant dependence on a few key clients

Despite diversification to sixteen destination countries, a significant share of South Korean export revenue remains concentrated in a small number of major contracts, notably those tied to Poland. This relative concentration exposes the industry to risk should a major client reduce future orders, a vulnerability South Korean industry leaders openly acknowledge.

Some analysts also note that rapid growth could, over time, strain production capacity and quality control, a challenge the four major defense groups will need to manage rigorously to preserve their newly earned reputation as reliable suppliers.

International competition won't stand still

Faced with this South Korean rise, other industrial powers, notably in Europe, are unlikely to remain passive. Several countries on the continent have already announced massive reinvestment plans in their own defense production capacity, which could, in the medium term, reduce European dependence on Asian suppliers.

This competitive dynamic, far from being a problem for the West as a whole, is instead an encouraging sign: the need for rearmament has finally been understood on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond, with several reliable suppliers able to meet demand.

Trump's role in this rearmament dynamic

American pressure that sped things up

It must be honestly acknowledged: pressure from the Trump administration on European allies to increase their defense spending directly helped accelerate this continental rearmament wave, creating massive demand for suppliers capable of delivering quickly, like South Korea.

Even though this pressure was often delivered bluntly and, at times, humiliatingly for certain allies, its net effect on the overall Western deterrence posture is hard to dispute: rising defense budgets, massive orders placed, and a global industrial base — now including Seoul — mobilized to meet this demand.

Collective deterrence strengthened despite the tensions

This dynamic illustrates an interesting paradox of the current period: diplomatic tensions within the Atlantic Alliance itself have not prevented a concrete and measurable strengthening of Western military capabilities, thanks in part to strategic partners like South Korea, which is not even formally part of NATO.

This South Korean contribution to Western deterrence demonstrates that collective defense against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea no longer rests solely on formal NATO member states, but on a broader network of allied democracies sharing the same fundamental strategic interests.

An industrial model that inspires other nations

The Korean lesson for Western defense industries

South Korea's success rests partly on rapid production capacity, competitive delivery times, and prices often more attractive than those of certain traditional Western competitors. This combination has won over European clients facing urgent rearmament needs amid the persistent Russian threat.

Several defense analysts believe this Korean industrial model — mass production, platform standardization, contractual flexibility — could inspire similar reforms in European defense industries, historically more fragmented among multiple national manufacturers with limited production capacity.

A national military footing that explains this resilience

It should not be forgotten that this industrial success rests on decades of continuous investment in South Korea's national defense, dictated by the permanent threat posed by North Korea at its border. This existential necessity kept an industrial base robust, while many Western countries cut defense investment after the end of the Cold War.

This lesson deserves to be remembered: a strong defense industry is not built in a few months of geopolitical panic, but over decades of constant vigilance against a threat taken seriously, a discipline South Korea has maintained relentlessly.

The next steps in this rise

Toward new contracts in the works

Several negotiations are underway for major new contracts, notably concerning the export of KF-21 fighter jets to various countries, including Indonesia, which plans to finalize the purchase of sixteen aircraft this year according to CHOSUNBIZ. These future contracts would further consolidate South Korea's presence in the global military aviation market, a particularly competitive and strategic segment.

The diversification of exported products — from tanks to fighter jets to naval systems — illustrates an industry that does not bet on a single type of equipment, thereby reducing its vulnerability to demand fluctuations in any particular segment of the arms market.

A trajectory worth watching closely for Western allies

For Western governments, South Korea's continued rise in the global ranking of arms exporters deserves sustained attention, both as a reliable strategic partner and as a potential industrial model to study for accelerating their own defense production capacity.

This trajectory, if maintained at the current pace, could see South Korea reach its 20-billion-dollar export target well before the government's 2030 deadline, a performance that would durably confirm its status as a first-rank defense industrial power.

What this means for the global geopolitical balance

A welcome counterweight to revisionist powers

In a world where Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea increasingly coordinate their strategic interests, every strengthening of an allied democracy's defense industrial capacity represents a welcome strategic counterweight. South Korea's rise fits precisely into this logic of collective resistance against authoritarian ambitions.

This Korean industrial strengthening is not limited to its commercial aspect: it sends a clear signal to authoritarian regimes that the democratic camp has industrial resources that are sufficient, diversified, and resilient enough to sustain a prolonged defense effort, regardless of how long current geopolitical tensions last.

A de facto alliance between Pacific and Atlantic democracies

This growing cooperation between South Korea and European NATO countries illustrates a broader strategic convergence between Pacific and Atlantic democracies, united against threats that, while geographically distinct, share a common origin: the rejection of the rules-based international order by several authoritarian powers.

This strategic convergence, made concrete through South Korean arms contracts in Europe, may well foreshadow a more integrated global security architecture among allied democracies, going beyond the traditional regional boundaries of NATO and its Asian partnerships.

The internal challenges Seoul still has to overcome

The question of skilled labor

Faced with such rapid growth, several South Korean defense companies are struggling to recruit highly skilled workers, particularly engineers specialized in advanced weapons systems. This potential talent shortage could, if not resolved quickly, slow the country's ability to sustain its current growth pace over the long term.

The South Korean government has announced additional investment in technical training and defense engineering education, recognizing that the sustainability of this industrial success depends directly on its ability to train the next generation of specialists.

Regional geopolitical tensions not to be overlooked

This South Korean industrial rise is unfolding in a regional context where tensions with North Korea remain a daily reality, and where the strategic balance with China remains delicate. These regional factors will continue to shape the country's military production priorities, potentially at the expense of certain export capacity should local tensions intensify.

Despite these challenges, the current trajectory demonstrates a remarkable adaptive capacity within the South Korean industry, able to simultaneously meet its national defense needs and growing international demand, a balance few nations manage to maintain so effectively.

The role of advanced technology in this success

Integrating next-generation systems

Beyond conventional platforms like tanks and artillery, the South Korean industry is investing heavily in next-generation systems, including domestically designed KF-21 fighter jets and advanced missile defense technologies. This technological upgrade allows South Korea to directly compete with established Western manufacturers in higher-value-added segments.

This ability to produce high-tech equipment, not just conventional platforms, strengthens the long-term credibility of the South Korean industry as a first-rank strategic partner for decades to come.

Sustained investment in research and development

South Korea's four major defense groups are reinvesting a significant share of their record profits into research and development, seeking to maintain their technological edge against increasingly fierce international competition. This ongoing investment strategy sets the South Korean approach apart from that of some competitors who prioritize short-term profits.

This long-term vision, combined with already considerable profits, positions the South Korean industry favorably to keep innovating and maintaining its competitiveness in the global arms market for years to come.

The impact on bilateral diplomatic relations

Strengthened ties with European countries

Every major arms contract is generally accompanied by a broader strengthening of diplomatic and economic relations between South Korea and the buying country. Ties between Seoul and Warsaw, for example, have deepened considerably since the historic arms deal was signed, now extending to areas of cooperation well beyond the military sector alone.

This dynamic illustrates how defense partnerships can serve as a catalyst for broader bilateral relations, creating lasting bridges between geographically distant but strategically aligned nations facing the same global threats.

Growing international recognition

This industrial rise also gives South Korea increased diplomatic weight on the international stage, strengthening its ability to influence multilateral forums devoted to collective security. This enhanced status could, over time, allow Seoul to play an even more active role in strategic coordination between allied democracies of the Pacific and the Atlantic.

This growing recognition, however, comes with increased responsibilities, notably that of maintaining high standards of transparency and compliance in its arms export contracts, a challenge the country will need to continue meeting rigorously.

Conclusion: thank you for this contribution to collective security

A partnership worth celebrating

Dear South Korean government, this letter is above all meant as a sincere thank you. In a world where Western deterrence has long suffered from an industrial capacity shortfall, your country managed to fill a critical part of that void, at the exact moment Europe and its allies needed it most, facing an aggressive Russia and an increasingly unstable geopolitical landscape.

Your rise to become the world's fourth-largest arms exporter is not just a Korean commercial success: it is a tangible strengthening of the collective capacity of allied democracies to defend the rules-based international order against the revisionist ambitions of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Hope for the future of broader Western cooperation

May this collaboration continue to deepen in the years ahead, as the West and its Pacific partners together face an increasingly complex strategic environment. South Korea's trajectory shows that it is possible, in just a few years, to turn a national industrial capacity into a genuine pillar of international collective security.

Thank you, then, to those in Seoul, in the factories of Hanwha, Hyundai Rotem, KAI, and LIG Nex1, who work every day to build the equipment that concretely strengthens the West's ability to deter those who would challenge international peace and stability.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

My limits and my acknowledged bias

I have not visited any South Korean defense factory and have not personally interviewed any executive from Hanwha, Hyundai Rotem, KAI, or LIG Nex1. This piece relies exclusively on data published by recognized institutes like SIPRI and on reporting from economic and general-interest outlets cited in the Sources section.

I fully embrace a pro-Western, pro-defense editorial line: I consider the rearmament of allied democracies against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea to be a legitimate strategic necessity, and I applaud industrial contributions that strengthen this collective deterrence.

My verification method

All figures cited in this piece come from identifiable and verifiable sources, notably SIPRI, South Korea's DAPA agency, and specialized economic media. I invent no quote and no data; where future projections are mentioned, they are clearly identified as analyst estimates rather than accomplished facts.

Sources

Primary sources

Hankyoreh — South Korea becomes the world's 4th-largest arms exporter, April 2026

CHOSUNBIZ — profits at the four major defense groups surge, June 24, 2026

Seoul Economic Daily — K-Defense eyes 20 billion dollars in exports, April 7, 2026

Secondary sources

CHOSUNBIZ — further analysis of the South Korean defense industry, May 2026

FOI — report on the South Korean defense industry

Institute for Security and Development Policy — South Korea, 2nd-largest supplier of arms to European NATO