Can NATO really hold its eastern flank without the United States

Introduction: the question everyone avoids asking out loud

A report that disturbs a comfortable assumption

Can we still take it for granted that the United States will systematically come to defend NATO's eastern flank in the event of Russian aggression? That's the question raised head-on by an investigation from Business Insider, carried out by Axel Springer's Global Reporters Network, in Finland, Poland, and Lithuania, three of the countries most exposed to Russia.

This fact-check aims to verify, point by point, the central claims of that report, in light of available data on defense spending, ongoing fortifications, and official statements from Atlantic Alliance officials.

What we're going to verify precisely

Three central claims deserve scrutiny: the announced reduction in the American military presence in Europe, the real capacity of eastern-flank countries to absorb a first blow alone, and the actual arrival of new F-35 fighter jets to reinforce certain allies.

Each of these claims will be checked against the primary sources available, before reaching a conclusion on their accuracy.

Claim 1: Washington really is reducing its military presence in Europe

What the facts confirm

This claim is largely corroborated by several sources. The Business Insider report explicitly cites President Donald Trump questioning old security guarantees and seeking to reduce the American military footprint in Europe, a shift also documented by analyses from the Atlantic Council and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has himself publicly acknowledged this dynamic, describing the need for Europeans to "take on" a growing share of conventional responsibilities, notably because Washington must now manage several strategic theaters simultaneously, including the Indo-Pacific.

Verdict on this first claim

The fact-check therefore confirms this claim: there is indeed a documented trend of relatively reduced direct American military engagement in Europe, even though no total withdrawal or abandonment of the Article 5 principle has been formally announced by Washington to date.

A caveat is worth noting: reducing a presence is not the same as total disengagement, and American officials continue to affirm their commitment to the Alliance's collective commitments, while asking for a more equitable sharing of the defense burden.

Claim 2: eastern-flank countries are preparing to absorb the first blow alone

Finland, a verified textbook case

The report cites Finnish MP Jukka Kopra, chair of parliament's defense committee, stating that Finland "will take the first hit alone" before Article 5 is activated. That statement is consistent with Finland's total defense doctrine, which calls for mobilizing nearly 870,000 reservists out of a population of 5.6 million, a figure confirmed by data cited in the investigation.

Poland and Lithuania are also building massive fortification systems: Poland's Eastern Shield project, with a budget of roughly €10 billion, and the broader concept of an eastern-flank deterrence line stretching from Finland to Romania.

Verdict on this second claim

This claim is confirmed by the facts: the most exposed countries are investing massively and autonomously in their territorial defense, without waiting for immediate intervention from allies, a national resilience strategy long documented in Finland and now accelerating in Poland and the Baltic states.

It should nonetheless be noted, for accuracy's sake, that even in this scenario, several experts cited in the report, such as Charly Salonius-Pasternak of the Nordic West Office institute, believe other European countries like Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom would likely step in even before Article 5 is formally activated.

Claim 3: the arrival of F-35 fighter jets to reinforce certain allies

What available sources confirm

Strengthening the eastern flank's air capabilities through the arrival of F-35 fighter jets is a recurring element in discussions ahead of the NATO Ankara summit in July 2026, where the Alliance is expected to announce "tens of billions of dollars" in new defense contracts, according to remarks from Mark Rutte reported by several outlets, including Forbes.

This air-power modernization is part of a broader wave of European rearmament, including expanded stockpiles of munitions and equipment in border states, as well as the deployment of sensors and robotic systems designed to slow any Russian advance from the first hours of a conflict.

Verdict on this third claim

This claim is broadly confirmed, although precise details on the exact number of aircraft and the delivery timeline by country still remain to be clarified as of the Ankara summit, which calls for caution about final figures before their official announcement.

Brigadier General Thomas Lowin, of NATO's Land Command in Izmir, confirms in the report that the Alliance plans to build much larger stockpiles of weapons and munitions in border states, a measure consistent with the announced arrival of new air equipment.

The broader context of NATO defense spending

A historic milestone already reached in 2025

This report on the eastern flank fits into a broader context in which, for the first time since the 2% of GDP threshold was codified at the 2014 Wales summit, all 32 NATO member states surpassed that threshold in 2025, a milestone confirmed by the Anadolu agency's factbox published ahead of the Ankara summit.

Poland and Lithuania even far exceed the new intermediate target of 3.5% of GDP set at the 2025 Hague summit, a full decade ahead of the 2035 deadline, confirming their posture as committed front lines of Western deterrence.

Verdict on the report's overall consistency

All available data converge on a consistent conclusion: eastern-flank countries are not reacting to a sudden abandonment by Washington, but are accelerating an autonomous rearmament trajectory already underway since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, in a context where the United States is asking for a more balanced sharing of the defense burden rather than an outright withdrawal.

This fact-check therefore concludes that the Business Insider report accurately describes a real and documented dynamic, without alarmist exaggeration or downplaying the risks tied to this ongoing strategic transition.

Claim 4: Russia is actively reinforcing its posture at the borders

What the satellite images cited in the investigation show

The report cites satellite imagery showing that Russia has built barracks and positioned military vehicles along its border with Finland and other European Union countries, an observation confirmed by Sweden's chief of military intelligence, who sees it as possible preparation for a confrontation with NATO.

This buildup of Russian military capabilities along the Alliance's eastern borders is one of the report's most solid factual elements, corroborated by independent military intelligence sources rather than mere political statements.

Verdict on this fourth claim

This claim is confirmed by credible intelligence sources: the construction of Russian military infrastructure near the Finnish and Baltic borders is a verifiable fact, documented independently of the Western narrative on eastern-flank rearmament.

It should be noted, however, that the interpretation of these movements, whether they represent imminent offensive preparation or a routine defensive posture, remains debated among the security experts cited in the various available analyses.

What the industrial investments announced for Ankara reveal

Concrete contracts rather than abstract promises

According to statements from Mark Rutte reported by several outlets, including Pakistan's The Nation, the Ankara summit is meant to showcase a "transatlantic industrial revolution" in defense, with concrete contracts signed during a day entirely devoted to the defense industry, the summit's first day.

This industrial dimension of Western rearmament, less spectacular than military deployments themselves, is nonetheless one of the most reliable indicators of the long-term credibility of the promised deterrence, since it determines the real capacity to produce weapons and munitions over time.

Verdict on this fifth claim

This claim is confirmed by official statements from several NATO officials, notably at the Atlantic Council event in Washington in June 2026, where Rutte explicitly announced tens of billions of dollars in new defense-industrial contracts.

This announcement still needs to be confirmed in detail at the summit itself, as precise figures by country and equipment type had not yet been made public at the time this fact-check was written.

What critics of the report argue in response

A reading some diplomats consider too alarmist

Some European diplomats, cited anonymously in parallel analyses, believe the Business Insider report tends to dramatize a transition that, in their view, remains gradual and coordinated with Washington rather than something unilaterally imposed on eastern-flank European countries.

This nuance deserves mention in the interest of balance: the ongoing strategic transition does not necessarily mean a brutal rupture of American commitments, but rather a gradual redefinition of responsibilities within the Atlantic Alliance.

Final verdict on the report as a whole

Despite these diplomatic nuances, all the verifiable facts cited in the report hold up under scrutiny: a relative reduction in the American presence, accelerated autonomous rearmament by border countries, and massive industrial investments announced for the Ankara summit are solid factual elements rather than journalistic speculation.

This fact-check therefore finds the original report to have high overall reliability, while recommending the usual caution regarding precise figures still to be confirmed at the summit itself.

What this means for the credibility of Western deterrence

A clear message aimed at Moscow

According to Mark Rutte, cited by the Atlantic Council, the goal of the Ankara summit is to send an unambiguous message to Russian president Vladimir Putin: every "reckless move" against the Alliance will meet a firm, coordinated response, regardless of internal adjustments to how roles are divided between European and American allies.

This rhetorical clarity is now accompanied by tangible budgetary and industrial clarity, with massive, verifiable investments rather than mere statements of intent, an important qualitative shift compared with the years before the invasion of Ukraine.

Vigilance that must remain the rule

This fact-check therefore largely confirms the accuracy of the reported information on the autonomous strengthening of NATO's eastern flank, while noting that the solidity of this deterrence will, over time, depend on the Alliance's ability to turn its budget announcements into military capabilities actually delivered and operational on the ground.

It's this vigilance over concrete execution of commitments, more than the official announcements alone, that will determine whether this new Western posture holds up under the test of a possible major crisis with Russia.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

This fact-check rests on the original Business Insider investigation carried out by Axel Springer's Global Reporters Network, along with additional analyses from Forbes, the Atlantic Council, and the Anadolu agency. Precise figures on the F-35 delivery timeline remain to be confirmed at the Ankara summit. I will correct any inaccuracy brought to my attention based on verifiable sources.

Sources

Primary sources

Business Insider — NATO's eastern flank prepares to fend off Russia without the US, juin 2026

Forbes — What defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit, 1er juillet 2026

Secondary sources

The Economist — NATO ponders how to defend Eastern Europe as America pulls back, 2 juillet 2026

Politico — NATO's eastern flank, Putin, Russia and Finland, 5 juillet 2026

Anadolu Ajansı — Factbox sur les dépenses de défense de l'OTAN avant le sommet d'Ankara

Wikipedia — Sommet de l'OTAN à Ankara 2026