COMMENTARY: Europe strikes “associate member” in Montreal, and Canada keeps its carbon bill

Two words are gone. They said “associate member.”

The draft struck them.

I will not mourn them.

One word fewer

The joint text now speaks of “an ever closer association,” the Guardian writes.

Carney says names matter little. He is right.

A title protects nothing. The loss lies elsewhere. It has a number.

According to a note obtained by CBC, Global Affairs estimates about $792 million a year of Quebec exports are exposed to the European carbon tariff.

Aluminum is targeted. Steel too.

To the south, a culprit floated

Its definitive regime already applies.

To the south, according to CTV, an American ambassador said Trump could blame Canada for a midterm setback.

Canada gains an alliance. It has no name.

Ottawa keeps a tax. That one has a name.

Between Brussels and Washington, Canada loses a word and keeps two worries.

Bad trade.

The word came from Brussels. Ursula von der Leyen had launched it last month, in her state of the union address.

The surprise was nearly total.

Capitals flinched. Then they braked.

Worried ambassadors, October 26

On October 26, ambassadors to the EU sought a way out without embarrassing von der Leyen, the Guardian reports.

The retreat was starting.

Italy reportedly proposed keeping the Commission’s wording, with member states defining it later. Rome was stalling.

Germany walked back further, according to the Guardian, toward “an ever closer association of Canada.”

The draft proves it right. Berlin won.

Carney spoke of an alliance for the future, Brussels offered him a title, then the capitals struck the title and kept the alliance.

See you in 2027

The word appeared at least two times in an earlier draft, the Guardian says. It is gone now.

The new text pledges to “work to define by the 2027 EU-Canada summit” this association, the paper reports.

One more year. Europe takes its time.

The draft also sets a limit: “short of full membership itself.”

The door opens a crack. The threshold stays. Ottawa wanted no more.

The summit is held in Montreal on 29 and 30 October 2026.

Carney hosts Europe. Two European presidents come.

Noon, 2 p.m., 7 p.m.

At noon, according to the Prime Minister’s media advisory, Carney will make an announcement on digital sovereignty.

Digital opens the day.

At 2 p.m., the advisory plans a business roundtable, then at 7 p.m. a dinner closed to media.

In February 2026, Canada became the first non-European country to join SAFE, the European defence initiative.

A first. A first contract followed.

Montreal firm Marconi Technologies will build ORION tactical radios for the Polish cyber command. Poland buys. Montreal builds.

Tens of billions on the table

The EU remains Canada’s second-largest trading partner, with about $178 billion in trade in 2025, according to Ottawa.

Europe carries weight. It is also the second investor.

TD Economics sees tens of billions in extra trade, if barriers fall in defence, energy or digital markets.

The potential exists. It remains to be seized.

Carney also wants to reduce reliance on Starlink, after a decision that throttled its use over Ukraine.

Ukraine comes back everywhere.

A diplomat has spoken.

Nobody was consulted apart from von der Leyen’s closest staff, it would seem, he told the Guardian.

Many capitals grumbled, he added. Germany too.

“Fixing the plane while it is flying”

The image belongs to that diplomat. It is apt.

A president drops a word mid-speech, and the capitals discover it along with everyone else.

The ambassadors repair it afterward.

The word had no definition. It floated.

Diplomats wondered whether Canada could sit on the European Council without a vote.

Nobody had the answer. The plane flew without a runway.

Carney is not asking for membership

Carney says Canada has no interest in formally joining the EU.

The title came from Brussels. The retreat comes from the capitals.

Ottawa loses a word. It keeps the alliance.

The title left the table before the Montreal dinner even began.

The German argument deserves better than a shrug.

Berlin argues that associate membership should remain an interim step for candidate countries, the Guardian reports.

Ukraine and Montenegro first

Ukraine is one. Montenegro too.

Berlin also notes that the status has no formal grounding in current EU treaties.

Kyiv is a candidate. Ottawa refuses to be one.

I side with Berlin.

A candidate knocking at the door comes before an ally who refuses to enter.

The order is fair.

Thirteen years without a new member

The argument still has its limit. No state has joined the Union since Croatia, in 2013.

Thirteen years. The door creaks.

Associate membership had already been mooted, then rejected, for Ukraine, the Guardian recalls.

Kyiv still waits. Ottawa too, now.

This slowness is old. Canada inherits it.

The other text holds firm.

The definitive regime of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism has applied since 1 January 2026, the European Commission writes.

Since January, then. The meter is running.

The Commission writes it on its page

The importer must be authorized. It declares.

Then it buys certificates. It surrenders them later. Carbon sets the number.

European auctions set the price.

The transitional phase ran from 2023 to 2025, according to the Commission. The trial is over.

A Global Affairs note obtained by CBC, signed on 10 December 2025, says it is effectively a “carbon tariff.”

The term is out. Ottawa was not fooled.

Cement, steel, aluminum

The list of sectors fits on one line: cement, iron and steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen.

Quebec is on it. Its aluminum first.

Steel, aluminum, iron and cement exporters already pay to measure their emissions and have them verified, CBC reports.

The regulation waits for no summit.

Global Affairs Canada estimates that $2.8 billion a year in Canadian goods are exposed to the levy.

The targeted metals already face American tariffs, CBC says. Two tariffs target these metals.

Newfoundland first, Quebec next

In Newfoundland and Labrador, $885 million a year of iron and steel is exposed, nearly half of the province’s iron and steel exports, according to the note.

Quebec follows.

In Quebec, exposed aluminum, iron and steel are worth about $792 million a year, according to the same document. The figure returns every year.

The note says the national exposure “appears modest,” but the potential impact varies widely across provinces.

Modest for whom? Not for aluminum.

These 2021 to 2024 averages could understate the exposure, CBC reports.

Exporters are shopping for other markets. Europe is one.

Metals caught between two borders

Canada flees one tariff. It meets another.

Taxed to the south. Tariffed to the east.

The bill stays in Quebec.

Switzerland is exempt. Norway too. Iceland too.

The United Kingdom soon will be, CBC writes. Canada, no.

Two carbon markets not linked

These countries have a carbon price linked to the European market, or integrated with it.

Ours is not.

The Global Affairs note says it in black and white: an exemption “is not currently possible” for Canada.

Currently. The word counts.

In 2025, a tonne of carbon cost about $134 in the EU and $95 in Canada, according to the note.

The gap is therefore $39 a tonne, by those figures. The gap has an author.

The Carney government widened the gap

The Carney government’s energy accord with Alberta weakened Canada’s carbon price further, CBC reports.

Ottawa widened the gap. Brussels had no part in it.

Countries with a carbon price will get credit, the note says, but it is unclear for ours. The credit remains theoretical.

Ottawa arrives in Montreal with a price it weakened itself. It still asks for recognition.

The request is legitimate. It will be hard to argue.

Trump called the idea “laughable.”

Then he threatened. If he saw a “hostile act,” the United States could stop trading with Europe “on many things.”

The threat targets Europe.

The tariff war wrote the agenda

The trade war with the United States pushed Carney to seek new partners, the Guardian writes.

Ottawa has retaliated for months against tariffs the Guardian calls illegal.

Washington is absent. It weighs all the same.

Montreal answers it in part.

A shock that worked, then a threat

Two allies drew closer. That result exists.

Trump can claim it.

Trump squanders it by brandishing the “hostile act” against an alliance between democracies.

An ally who threatens weakens himself. That gesture serves no one.

According to CTV, cited by the Guardian, Pete Hoekstra spoke behind closed doors to business people.

If close races, including Maine and Michigan, fall to the Democrats, Trump could blame Canada, he reportedly said.

The conditional matters. Hoekstra comes from Michigan.

The embassy talks of context

The American embassy denies it.

It said the remarks were “grossly taken out of context.” The denial is clear. It counts.

Carney replied soberly: “an interesting way of framing it.”

More than 225,000 signatures

The man has a record. He already cried interference. “We are monitoring it,” he said.

He also advised Canadians to “keep your nose out of American politics.” The tone was set.

“No merit,” Carney ruled. Mélanie Joly said Canada “would never do that.”

More than 225,000 Canadians signed a House of Commons petition for his expulsion.

Roland Paris, of the University of Ottawa, sees an effort to “manufacture a pretext.” The charge is serious.

Michigan votes alone. You know it. So does the ambassador.

Brussels strikes a word. An American ambassador, for his part, floats a culprit.

Two dates look too alike.

In 2027, according to the draft seen by the Guardian, the two sides aim to have defined the promised association.

In 2027, according to CBC, European importers will start paying the carbon charge at the border.

Same year, same partner. Two promises contradict each other.

2034, the full charge

The mechanism will rise to its full level by 2034, CBC reports.

Economist Aaron Cosbey estimates Canadian steel could then cost an additional $150 a tonne, more than 10%.

The association will have one year to find its definition, and the carbon tariff will then have seven years to reach full charge.

The word waits. The tariff climbs.

“Pennies per tonne,” says Canada Nickel

One CEO plays it down.

Mark Selby, of Canada Nickel, says it means “pennies per tonne” over the long run. His project is in Timmins.

Not everyone sees it that way.

The same note sees the mechanism multiplying, under study or in the works: United Kingdom, Australia, Japan, Turkey.

The model travels. So does the bill.

Rio Tinto declined to comment. So did ArcelorMittal.

According to Minister Julie Dabrusin’s office, Canada advocates recognition of its industrial carbon pricing.

CBC reports that on October 22, she did not say whether negotiators were making progress. That question is still open.

The word Montreal should win

Canada and the EU aim for “the same kind of baselines,” European officials say. Their content remains unknown.

A title pays for nothing. Recognition does.

I prefer a recognized price.

If your job depends on Quebec aluminum, the word that counts in Montreal is not “associate.”

Half the answer lies in Ottawa

A weakened price argues poorly.

Brussels drags its feet on the word. Ottawa weakened its price.

Diplomats and ministers are “focused on minimizing” the impact, according to the documents. Minimizing will not be enough.

The note flags “risks” just as Canada diversifies its trade toward Europe. The detour has a price.

The price comes first.

Two words have fallen. Quebec keeps $792 million in exposed exports every year, according to the Global Affairs note.

An alliance without a title

Canada will leave with an alliance and a year of negotiations, after a first defence contract won in June. The alliance counts.

Ottawa will also leave with a note that promises no exemption. No credit is guaranteed.

“Recognized,” the word still to be written

The missing word is not “associate.” It is “recognized.”

Recognized, our price would count.

The title can wait. The bill cannot.

Montreal lost a word. Quebec waits for its own.

Europe strikes “associate member,” and Canada keeps its carbon bill.

Before the next summit, who will get Brussels to recognize Canada’s carbon price?

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. I claim analytical clarity, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

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