REPORT: The Ukrainian flag on the Kinburn Spit — a victory in the fog of war

June 25, 2026 on the Kinburn Spit

On June 25, 2026, the Southern Territorial Defense Forces of Ukraine raised the blue and yellow Ukrainian flag on the Kinburn Spit, a natural peninsula of Mykolaiv Oblast that juts into the Black Sea between the mouth of the Dnipro-Buh estuary and the Dnipro River. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in 2022, this strip of land — roughly 40 kilometers long and a few hundred meters wide — had been held by Russian forces, forming a potential bridgehead for offensive operations toward the right bank of the Dnipro. The flag ceremony — filmed and published — is a powerful symbolic act, but Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, chose his words carefully: the position is "dynamic," fighting continues, and full liberation of the Spit is not yet confirmed. This is a victory in the fog.

What is certain, however, is the mechanism behind the Ukrainian breakthrough: sustained, coordinated strikes severed Russian logistical lines on the Spit, cutting off occupation forces from ammunition, fuel, and food supplies. Isolated, weakened, with no resupply possible, Russian forces pulled back. This is not a heroic charge — it is a victory through logistical attrition, the kind of victory that observers underestimate because it lacks the poetry of a battle.

The Kinburn Spit: strategic and symbolic value

The Kinburn Spit is more than a sandbar. It is one of the most strategically significant positions in the northern Black Sea, commanding the approaches to Mykolaiv and Kherson. Historically, the Spit was the site of memorable battles — notably in 1787 during the Russo-Ottoman War, won by Russian Field Marshal Suvorov. That Ukrainians plant their flag there in 2026 carries no small historical irony: the Kinburn Spit, symbol of historic Russian military power, becomes a symbol of Ukrainian resistance.

A flag on the Kinburn Spit. Suvorov must be turning in his grave. There is a deep satisfaction in watching Ukrainians reclaim positions that Russia considered historically "its own." History does not belong to nationalisms — it belongs to those who fight for it today.

The Ukrainian strangulation strategy

The Kinburn Spit is topographically an untenable defensive position once supply lines are cut. Long and narrow, it can only be resupplied by sea (the Black Sea) or by an extremely narrow and vulnerable land corridor. The Ukrainian strategy was to neutralize both routes: on one side, regular strikes on Russian maritime convoys and supply vessels in the Black Sea — including the destruction of three Russian naval drones near the Spit on June 24; on the other, artillery and drone strikes on the land corridor linking the Spit to Russian-controlled territory.

Deprived of resupply, Russian forces on the Spit found themselves in a situation of progressive isolation. Without ammunition, without fuel for vehicles and generators, without sufficient food — military resistance becomes mathematically impossible to sustain over time. The retreat — or withdrawal, since fighting continues on some positions — was the logical consequence of this logistical attrition.

The Russian naval drones and their destruction

The Ukrainian Navy and the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR) played a key role in isolating the Kinburn Spit. On June 24, 2026, they destroyed three Russian naval drones before they reached the coastline near the Spit. These devices, equipped with smuggled Starlink terminals, represented Russia's attempt to reconstitute maritime resupply capability through unconventional means. Their destruction closed this supply route.

The presence of smuggled Starlink terminals on Russian naval drones illustrates Russia's growing technological dependence on Western components stolen or circumventing sanctions. SpaceX has taken measures to block unauthorized uses, but the gray market for diverted terminals remains active. This is one of the most surreal dimensions of this conflict: Russians using American technology to attack forces supported by America.

Russian drones running on smuggled Starlink, destroyed by the Ukrainian navy. Elon Musk provided Starlink to Ukraine to help it fight. Russia uses the same technology to try to circumvent it. There is something kafkaesque about this technological war where the same tools serve both sides. And Ukraine won that round too.

A symbol of Ukraine's maritime breakthrough

The Kinburn Spit is the most visible symbol of the growing strength of the Ukrainian Navy and HUR in the Black Sea war. Since 2022, Ukraine has effectively excluded the Russian fleet from the northwestern Black Sea, torpedoing or damaging dozens of Russian warships. The informal Crimea blockade strategy is progressing. The flag-raising on Kinburn fits into this larger picture of a Ukraine gradually reclaiming the initiative in the maritime domain.

On June 26, 2026, Ukrainian forces also struck Russian warships and an S-400 system in Crimea. These coordinated strikes — against naval drones, warships, and air defense systems — illustrate a coherent maritime strategy: disaggregate Russian presence in the northwestern Black Sea, secure the approaches to Mykolaiv and Odesa, and lay the groundwork for increased pressure on Crimea.

Pletenchuk's necessary caution

Dmytro Pletenchuk, spokesperson for the Ukrainian Navy, chose his words with precision: "dynamic," "fighting continues," no confirmation of "full liberation." This caution is both professional and strategic. Announcing a premature victory would expose Ukraine to destabilizing corrections if the situation evolved unfavorably. It also preserves operational secrecy around the exact positions of Ukrainian forces on the Spit.

Ukrainian communication about military operations has grown more sophisticated since 2022. The early years of the conflict saw statements that were sometimes too optimistic, quickly contradicted by battlefield realities. By 2026, the approach is more measured: celebrate real successes without exaggerating, maintain long-term credibility. The flag on Kinburn is real. What it means exactly — full liberation or significant advance — remains to be confirmed.

I appreciate Pletenchuk's caution. In this conflict, premature statements have caused as much damage as military setbacks — in terms of credibility. When the Ukrainian Navy spokesperson says "dynamic situation," that is a sign of institutional maturity. Ukraine is learning to communicate like a democracy at war. That is itself a victory.

160 Ukrainian soldiers returned to their families

On June 26, 2026, simultaneously with operations on the Kinburn Spit, Ukraine brought home 160 prisoners of war in an exchange with Russia. Zelensky personally announced the return, saluting "the team" working on these exchanges. For the families of these soldiers, June 26 marked the end of a nightmare — the uncertainty about the fate of their loved ones.

Ukrainian prisoners of war held in Russia are subjected to detention conditions that international humanitarian organizations document as severe — deprivation, mistreatment, isolation. Each exchange is therefore not only a return but a liberation from a situation of genuine distress. 160 men returned to their families on June 26, 2026.

The diplomacy of prisoners in wartime

Prisoner exchanges are one of the rare dimensions of the conflict where direct interaction between Ukraine and Russia remains possible and functional. They obey a pragmatic logic on both sides: each country recovers people who hold value — either through their military expertise, or through their symbolic or family value. These exchanges do not presuppose a ceasefire or political negotiations — they are conducted in parallel with the fighting.

The fact that this exchange took place two days after the deaths of two Norwegian demining experts in Kherson illustrates the permanent duality of this conflict: Russia strikes and negotiates simultaneously, according to its interests of the moment. Ukraine accepts this reality and keeps the exchange channels open for its detained soldiers.

160 Ukrainian soldiers came home on June 26. Their names are not in the newspapers. Their faces are not on magazine covers. But for their mothers, their wives, their children — this is the most important news in the world. These silent returns are also a victory for Ukrainian diplomacy. We do not talk about them enough.

The strategy of blockading Crimea

The recapture of the Kinburn Spit fits into a broader strategy that military analysts describe as the "Crimea blockade." Since 2022, Ukraine has progressively reduced the supply routes to the occupied peninsula — the Kerch Bridge damaged, maritime routes under threat from strikes, fuel supplies disrupted by attacks on refineries. If the Kinburn Spit is consolidated under Ukrainian control, it closes an additional maritime route and reinforces Ukrainian control over the approaches to the northwestern Black Sea.

This accumulated pressure on Crimea creates conditions for a progressive degradation of the Russian military position on the peninsula. Without reliable supply, Russian forces in Crimea cannot maintain a high operational tempo indefinitely. That is the Ukrainian calculation: not a frontal offensive on Crimea — a progressive logistical strangling.

Ukraine and the mastery of maritime spaces

Before 2022, the Ukrainian Navy was limited in capability and equipment. Four years of war transformed the doctrine and the tools. Ukraine developed a naval drone capability (Magura V5 and others), acquired anti-ship missiles (Neptune, Harpoon), and developed a remarkably effective asymmetric maritime warfare doctrine. Several Russian warships — including the cruiser Moskva in 2022 — have been sunk or damaged. The Russian fleet has retreated to more defensive positions.

The flag-raising on Kinburn is the visible manifestation of this shift in maritime balance. Four years ago, no one would have predicted that Ukraine would be able to recapture positions in the Black Sea while Russia maintained its land pressure. This is one of the strategic surprises of this conflict.

The Ukrainian navy in 2022: a few boats, few missiles, a defensive strategy. The Ukrainian navy in 2026: naval drones, Neptune missiles, a blockade capability, and a flag on Kinburn. This is the most spectacular transformation of an armed force in a recent conflict. And it is self-financed by the war itself.

The Kinburn Spit across the wars

The Kinburn Spit is not merely a geographical point — it is a place steeped in centuries of military history. During the Crimean War in October 1855, Franco-British forces captured the fortress of Kinburn in the first combat use of steam-powered ironclads in a naval battle. This historical precedent — a supposedly impregnable fortress falling to technological innovation — resonates strangely with the episode of June 2026, where it is the combination of naval drones, electronic countermeasures, and special forces that enabled an operation many deemed impossible.

During World War II, the Kinburn Spit changed hands multiple times between Soviet and German forces. Its strategic position at the mouth of the Bug and Dnipro rivers makes it a natural control point for all navigation in the northwestern Black Sea. The power that controls Kinburn controls river access to Kherson, Mykolaiv, and by extension the breadbasket that is southern Ukraine. This geographical reality has not changed since the 18th century — which explains why Russia positioned significant forces there after occupying the right bank in 2022.

The strategic dimension of the symbolic recapture

The Ukrainian flag raised on the Kinburn Spit on June 25, 2026 is not a reconquest in the traditional sense. Ukrainian forces do not control the entire peninsula, and the situation on the ground remains complex and contested. But the symbolic gesture carries real operational value: it demonstrates to Russia that its supposedly secured positions on the left bank are not safe from Ukrainian action. It creates uncertainty in the minds of Russian commanders who must now allocate additional defensive resources to areas they thought they could neglect.

This strategy of pressure on multiple simultaneous fronts is deliberate. Zelensky and his general staff understood long ago that in an attrition war where they cannot match Russian manpower and materiel, strategic surprise and persistent threat to the enemy's rear are essential force multipliers. Every flag raised in an unexpected zone is a drain on Russian defensive resources, forced to disperse to protect an ever-expanding perimeter.

History has been watching this sandbar for centuries. It has seen steam ironclads, Stukas, and now combat drones. The Ukrainian flag flying there today says the same thing as every previous battle for this strip of land: whoever controls this geographical point demonstrates the measure of their will to defend their vital space.

160 Ukrainian prisoners returning home

The exchange of 160 Ukrainian prisoners on June 26, 2026 is more than a statistic in the columns of the conflict. These are 160 soldiers, officers, sailors, and civilians who endured months or years of captivity under conditions documented by human rights organizations as extremely harsh. Testimonies from previously released prisoners have described systematic mistreatment, inadequate nutrition, coercive interrogations, and in some cases acts that constitute torture as defined by the UN Convention. Every exchange is therefore a victory against impunity as much as against the military adversary.

The prisoner exchange mechanism between Ukraine and Russia operates through intermediaries — mainly the United Arab Emirates and Turkey — which have maintained relations with both parties despite the war. These exchanges are one of the rare areas of indirect cooperation between belligerents who no longer speak directly to each other. They illustrate a pragmatic reality: even in the most intense conflicts, certain humanitarian mechanisms can function if both parties have a direct interest in them.

Lessons from captivity for Ukrainian doctrine

The return of prisoners also carries an important doctrinal dimension for Ukrainian forces. Debriefs of released soldiers provide intelligence on Russian positions, equipment, troop morale, and interrogation methods. But beyond intelligence, these returns demonstrate to soldiers still at the front that their country will not abandon them — that even if captured, they will eventually come home. This reassurance has a measurable impact on the morale of combat units.

Ukraine has also developed considerable expertise in documenting captivity conditions and providing medical and psychological care to released POWs. The National Coordinator for Prisoners of War, attached to the presidential office, coordinates a network of government and civil organizations that assist former prisoners upon their return. This system, built under wartime urgency since 2022, is today one of the most sophisticated in Europe for the rehabilitation of captivity trauma.

160 soldiers back home. 160 families reunited. 160 stories of survival that carry within them all the brutality and all the resilience of this conflict. I do not know their names. But I know that their return is a victory as real as any position held or liberated on the map.

How Ukraine neutralized Russia's Black Sea Fleet

In 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet seemed to be one of the most formidable naval forces in the region. With its submarines, frigates, Kalibr missiles, and ability to blockade Ukrainian exports, it weighed heavily in the regional balance of power. By June 2026, the picture is radically different. The Moskva, the flagship, was sunk in April 2022. Several additional frigates and submarines were destroyed or seriously damaged in the years that followed. The fleet was forced to withdraw from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, abandoning its historic base in Crimea.

This spectacular transformation is the result of a remarkably effective Ukrainian naval drone campaign. Vehicles like the Sea Baby and Magura V5, developed largely by Ukrainian military intelligence (HUR), demonstrated that an asymmetric navy can seriously contest a superior conventional fleet if it has the operational intelligence and appropriate combat drones. The operation at Kinburn on June 25, 2026 follows in this tradition — it uses the same asymmetric principles to project a presence into a zone that Russia believed was out of reach.

Implications for grain exports and the Ukrainian economy

Control of the Black Sea has direct economic implications that extend beyond the military sphere. Ukraine is one of the world's leading exporters of wheat, corn, and sunflower products. The Russian naval blockade of 2022 had triggered a global food crisis and contributed to a surge in grain prices that hit the poorest countries in Africa and the Middle East hardest. The resumption of exports, first via the Black Sea Humanitarian Corridor and then through alternative routes developed since 2023, is directly tied to Ukraine's military ability to contest Russian control of these waters.

By 2026, Ukrainian grain exports have returned to levels close to pre-war figures — an extraordinary achievement under the circumstances. This economic resilience is inseparable from military resilience in the Black Sea. Every naval drone that pushes back the Russian fleet is also a grain silo that Ukraine can export, an Egyptian or Senegalese family paying less for bread, a source of foreign currency for the besieged Ukrainian economy. The Black Sea war is not just geopolitical — it is profoundly humanitarian.

The Black Sea has become the symbol of what Ukraine can do with limited resources and unlimited determination. A fleet of improvised drones against a conventional naval force. And the improvised fleet is winning. Someone will write books about this naval campaign in the future.

An image for history, a reality to consolidate

The image of the Ukrainian flag on the Kinburn Spit will travel around the world. It will join in the memory of this war the photographs of the liberations of Kherson in 2022, the advances in Kharkiv Oblast, the explosions on the Kerch Bridge. These images matter — they tell Ukrainians that their soldiers are advancing, that their sacrifices are not in vain, that victory is possible.

But the symbolic victory of Kinburn must be consolidated by a durable military reality. The situation remains "dynamic," fighting continues. The objective is to transform this symbolic moment into permanent territorial control, to secure logistical lines, to protect the Ukrainian forces that raised this flag against the predictable counterattacks. These are the less photogenic — but more decisive — victories that will determine the fate of the Kinburn Spit.

The message to Putin: retreat is not an exception

Putin has made the Black Sea and Crimea symbols of his restored power. Every Russian retreat in this zone — every position recaptured by Ukraine, every warship sunk, every island of maritime control recovered — is a slap to that narrative. The flag on Kinburn tells Moscow: your sea is not your sea. And that lesson, repeated often enough, will eventually alter the strategic calculations of the Kremlin.

Kinburn: a flag, a prisoner exchange, a naval drone victory. In the relentless noise of this war, these three events of June 25 and 26 deserve to be heard together. They tell the story of a Ukraine that does not wait — that acts, that surprises, that brings its people home, and that plants its colors where the enemy least expected them.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. I claim analytical clarity, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

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