Why Belgium Is Betting Everything on Turkey Against the Russian Threat

Introduction: A Belgian Minister Says Out Loud What Few Dare to Voice

A Statement That Breaks With Usual Diplomatic Caution

Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken did not mince his words in an interview with the Anadolu news agency: Turkey remains a "very important" NATO ally, and its initial exclusion from the European SAFE-I program was, in his view, a genuine strategic mistake that Europe must now correct through the successor program, SAFE-II.

This unusual candor from a sitting European minister illustrates a perceptible shift in tone across several Western capitals ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara, scheduled for July 7 and 8, 2026, where Turkey's place in Europe's security architecture sits at the heart of discussions.

Why This Report Follows This File With Particular Attention

This columnist chose to document this file because it illustrates, better than any official NATO statement, how certain European leaders are concretely rediscovering the strategic importance of partners sometimes neglected out of excessive diplomatic caution or short-term internal political calculations.

Theo Francken's position deserves close attention, not as an isolated opinion, but as an early indicator of a broader repositioning by several European countries toward Ankara, at a moment when Russia's war against Ukraine makes every additional military capability precious for the entire Alliance.

What Turkey's Initial Exclusion From the SAFE-I Program Concretely Represents

A European Arms Program That Sidelined a Major Industrial Player

The SAFE program, a European joint-financing mechanism for defense equipment procurement, initially excluded Turkey from its first phase despite Turkey's considerable industrial capacity, notably in drones and armored vehicles, a decision several defense analysts had already criticized when it was adopted.

This columnist notes that this initial exclusion reflected persistent political tensions between certain European capitals and Ankara, legitimate tensions on certain bilateral issues but ones that, according to Theo Francken himself, should never take priority over the collective strategic urgency against Russia.

A Reversal That Fits a Broader Awakening

The prospect of Turkish integration into the successor program SAFE-II reflects a gradual awakening within European institutions: defense industrial fragmentation within the Western camp itself objectively benefits the Alliance's strategic adversaries, starting with Russia, which watches with interest any internal division among its Western opponents.

This columnist believes this reversal, however late, should be welcomed as a step in the right direction rather than criticized for its delay, since a late correction beats a persistent strategic mistake in the face of today's security urgency.

The TCG Burgazada Corvette, Symbol of Recognized Turkish Expertise

Technical Praise That Goes Beyond Mere Diplomatic Courtesy

Theo Francken specifically praised the capabilities of the corvette TCG Burgazada, an Ada-class ship designed and built by the Turkish naval industry, a technical acknowledgment that goes beyond the usual diplomatic courtesy expected during an official visit and reflects a sincere appreciation of Turkish naval industrial capabilities.

This columnist notes that this public acknowledgment of Turkish military equipment by the defense minister of a founding NATO country like Belgium sends a strong signal to the entire European defense industry about the now-competitive quality of Turkish production.

A Turkish Naval Industry in Full International Expansion

The Ada class, of which the TCG Burgazada is part, has already been exported to several foreign navies, a commercial success reflecting the technological upgrading of the Turkish defense industry, long perceived as secondary to traditional Western industrial giants like France, Germany or the United States.

This columnist believes this Turkish upgrade, if properly integrated into European supply chains rather than treated as a mere external commercial curiosity, could significantly strengthen NATO's collective industrial resilience against the growing needs generated by the war in Ukraine.

NATO's Force Model and Belgium's Concrete Contribution

Belgian Capabilities That Fit Into the Collective Effort

Belgium contributes to NATO's force model through several concrete capabilities: air-to-air refueling, a fleet of F-16 fighters, as well as MQ-9B SkyGuardian surveillance drones for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions, contributions that, while modest at the scale of the entire Alliance, illustrate Belgium's commitment to Western collective security.

This columnist believes these Belgian capabilities, combined with the strengthened integration of Turkish industry raised by Theo Francken, could form a broader cooperation model that other, smaller European NATO members would benefit from replicating in their own industrial partnerships.

An Earlier Statement That Confirms a Consistent Position

This favorable stance toward Turkey is nothing new for Theo Francken: as early as May 13, 2026, he had already stated that Ukraine and Turkey were the two countries that best understood modern warfare based on drones and artificial intelligence, a statement made during a visit to the facilities of Turkish drone maker Baykar and several Turkish shipyards.

This columnist highlights that this consistency in Theo Francken's rhetoric, repeated several months apart and in different contexts, strengthens the credibility of his position rather than reducing it to a mere opportunistic statement tied to the Ankara summit's calendar.

Creating a General's Post Dedicated to Drone Innovation

A Belgian Institutional Reform Directly Inspired by the Turkish-Ukrainian Model

Belgium has announced the creation of its first general's post specifically dedicated to drone innovation, accompanied by a counter-drone program with a budget exceeding one billion dollars, an institutional reform Theo Francken explicitly linked to the lessons drawn from his direct observations of Turkish and Ukrainian drone-warfare capabilities.

This columnist believes this institutional reform, however modest at the scale of Belgium's entire defense apparatus, illustrates a capacity for rapid adaptation to lessons from the Ukrainian battlefield, an agility that other, more bureaucratically rigid European armies would benefit from imitating without excessive delay.

An Investment That Reflects Urgency Perceived at the Highest Level

The scale of Belgium's investment in counter-drone capabilities, exceeding one billion dollars for a country the size of Belgium, reflects urgency perceived at the highest political level in the face of the rapidly evolving war technologies observed daily on the Ukrainian front since the start of the Russian invasion.

This columnist considers this Belgian investment, combined with the public acknowledgment of Turkish expertise in this field, to reflect a rare strategic coherence in the European political landscape, where rhetoric and concrete investment don't always align with the same clarity.

What the December 2025 Statement Reveals About Belgian Consistency

"No Security Scenario Without Turkey"

As early as December 2025, Theo Francken had already stated that, in his view, there was no credible European security scenario without Turkey's full involvement, a categorical formula that clearly foreshadowed the position he defends today with even greater force ahead of the Ankara summit.

This columnist believes this rhetorical consistency, documented over several consecutive months, sets Theo Francken apart from many European political leaders whose positions shift more readily with diplomatic circumstances or short-term internal political pressures.

A Belgian Voice That Could Influence Other European Capitals

This columnist believes the consistency and clarity of Belgium's position on Turkey could gradually influence other still-hesitant European capitals, notably as concrete discussions on Turkish integration into the SAFE-II program intensify in the months following the Ankara summit.

This potential influence, though difficult to measure precisely at this stage, illustrates the importance of consistent, repeated national voices in shifting collective European positions often frozen by bureaucratic inertia and persistent bilateral diplomatic sensitivities.

What Turkish Officials Think of This Western Recognition

Turkish Strategic Programs Highlighted by Ankara

The head of Turkey's Defense Industries Directorate, Haluk Gorgun, has highlighted several Turkish strategic programs, notably the Kaan fighter jet, the Kizilelma combat drone, the Anka III drone and the TB3 drone, as technological showcases meant to convince hesitant Western partners of Turkey's current industrial maturity.

This columnist believes this Turkish communication offensive, however diplomatically calculated, rests on verifiable technical achievements rather than mere promises, which sets this Turkish industrial offensive apart from other diplomatic charm efforts less backed by concrete results.

A Reciprocity Still to Be Built Over Time

This columnist believes the growing Western recognition of the Turkish defense industry, illustrated by Theo Francken's statements, should be matched by equally clear Turkish reciprocity on the bilateral issues that continue to complicate the relationship between Ankara and certain European capitals, without which this industrial rapprochement would remain fragile in the medium term.

This reciprocity, still largely to be built according to several observers of the EU-Turkey relationship, will be the real test of the solidity of this strategic rapprochement beyond the statements of intent made ahead of the Ankara summit.

What the War in Ukraine Has Taught About the Importance of Affordable Drones

A Battlefield Lesson Few Western Armies Had Anticipated

Russia's war against Ukraine has spectacularly demonstrated the strategic importance of relatively affordable, mass-produced drones, a lesson the Turkish defense industry, with products like the Bayraktar TB2, had anticipated well before most Western armies fully grasped its operational significance.

This columnist believes this Turkish lead, now publicly acknowledged by officials like Theo Francken, should have been integrated earlier into Western strategic planning, rather than waiting for the Ukrainian war to demonstrate its absolute necessity on the ground.

A Belgian Adaptation That Comes Late but Comes

The creation of the Belgian general's post dedicated to drone innovation, mentioned earlier, illustrates an institutional adaptation that, though late relative to the rapid evolution of the Ukrainian battlefield, at least demonstrates a learning capacity that other, more bureaucratically rigid European armies still struggle to show with the same clarity.

This columnist welcomes this Belgian adaptability, while noting that the comparison with the Turkish and Ukrainian lead on these issues reveals a collective Western lag that would warrant broader reflection at the level of NATO as a whole, not just isolated national initiatives.

What This Belgian-Turkish Relationship Reveals About Europe's Internal Divisions

National Positions Still Too Divergent Within the European Union

Belgium's assertive position toward Turkey contrasts with the caution, even persistent distrust, shown by some other European capitals on this same issue, a divergence that once again illustrates the European Union's structural difficulties in adopting a common, coherent strategic position toward complex industrial and military partners.

This columnist believes this fragmentation of national European positions on Turkey constitutes a strategic handicap that Russia, China and other powers hostile to the West watch with undisguised interest, each internal Western division representing an opportunity for their own geopolitical interests.

A Call for Collective Coherence Rather Than Isolated Initiatives

This columnist calls on European institutions to turn courageous individual positions like Theo Francken's into a coherent collective policy toward Turkey, rather than leaving this question dependent on the particular diplomatic sensitivities of each national capital taken in isolation.

This collective coherence, if it materializes after the Ankara summit, would send a much stronger signal to Ankara itself about Europe's sincere willingness to fully integrate this major industrial and military partner into its collective security architecture.

What the Kaan Fighters Represent for European Strategic Balance

A Fighter Jet Program That Could Rival Western Standards

The Kaan fighter, developed by the Turkish aerospace industry, represents a major industrial ambition to equip Turkey with a next-generation fighter jet capable of rivaling the most advanced Western standards, a program that, if fully successful, could durably reposition Turkey among the world's top-tier military aerospace powers.

This columnist believes this program's success, closely followed by several international defense industry observers, would deserve thoughtful integration into European strategic discussions on the next generation of combat air capabilities, rather than sterile competition between Western and Turkish programs.

Possible Complementarity Rather Than Mere Commercial Competition

This columnist considers that the relationship between existing European military aerospace programs, such as the Franco-German-Spanish SCAF, and the Turkish Kaan program need not necessarily be framed as direct commercial competition, but could instead be seen as a strategic complementarity strengthening the collective industrial depth of the entire Western camp.

This complementarity, if seriously explored by European decision-makers after the Ankara summit, would allow the pooling of certain considerable industrial and financial risks associated with developing next-generation fighters, rather than scattering Western resources across redundant competing programs.

What Military Analysts Say About This Growing Recognition

A Growing Consensus Among European Security Experts

Several military analysts specializing in European security, cited by specialized defense publications, are now converging on a finding similar to the one made by Theo Francken: Turkey's prolonged marginalization in European defense initiatives constitutes a strategic anomaly that today's security urgency makes increasingly politically unsustainable.

This columnist notes that this growing consensus among independent experts, beyond one-off political statements alone, strengthens the credibility of the Belgian minister's argument and suggests this repositioning toward Turkey reflects a structural shift rather than a passing diplomatic fashion.

Reservations That Nonetheless Persist Among Some Cautious Observers

This columnist honestly notes that some more cautious analysts continue to voice legitimate reservations about rapidly integrating Turkey into the most technologically sensitive European defense programs, citing concerns about sharing strategic technologies with a partner whose relations with certain other NATO members sometimes remain tense.

This columnist believes these reservations deserve to be taken seriously and debated openly, rather than swept aside by excessive enthusiasm for the strategic pragmatism this report otherwise documents sympathetically.

What This File Means for the Future of EU-Turkey Relations

A Pivotal Moment That Could Redefine the Relationship for a Decade

This columnist believes the current period, marked by the NATO summit in Ankara and repeated statements by officials like Theo Francken, could constitute a pivotal moment capable of durably redefining the defense relationship between the European Union and Turkey, a relationship long hindered by bilateral diplomatic blockages with no direct link to collective security issues.

This columnist invites European decision-makers to seize this pivotal moment rather than let it slip away out of excessive bureaucratic caution, a caution that, given the security urgency documented throughout this report, becomes increasingly politically unjustifiable.

A Responsibility That Now Falls to Institutions, Not Just Individual Ministers

This columnist closes this section by recalling that the responsibility for turning this pivotal moment into lasting structural change now falls on collective European institutions, and no longer solely on the individual statements of convinced ministers like Theo Francken, however valuable such voices are in shaping European public debate.

This institutional transition, from courageous individual rhetoric to structured collective policy, will be the real test of the sincerity of this strategic rapprochement with Turkey in the months following the Ankara summit.

What France and Germany Really Think of This Rapprochement

Historic Caution Beginning to Erode

France and Germany, historically more cautious than Belgium on Turkish industrial integration within European defense programs, are showing discreet but real signs of shifting position, particularly as their own defense industries struggle to meet alone the scale of needs generated by the war in Ukraine.

This columnist believes this gradual shift in Paris and Berlin, though less spectacular than the candor displayed by Theo Francken, could prove just as decisive in the long run for the effective integration of Turkey into Europe's defense industrial architecture.

National Industrial Interests That Further Complicate the Debate

This columnist notes that the French and German defense industries retain their own commercial interests that could directly compete with too rapid an integration of Turkish industry, an economic reality that complicates the debate beyond the strategic considerations publicly voiced by political officials.

This tension between national industrial interests and collective strategic urgency illustrates the real complexity of this file, which this report must document honestly rather than reduce to a simple narrative of strategic goodwill free of underlying friction.

What This File Teaches About the Diplomatic Leadership of Smaller Powers

A Belgium That Demonstrates the Possible Influence of Middle Powers

This file illustrates a reality often underestimated in contemporary international relations: a middle power like Belgium can, through the clarity and consistency of its rhetoric, influence a European strategic debate far beyond its raw economic or military weight, provided it demonstrates consistency and coherence over time.

This columnist believes this Belgian example would deserve study by other European middle powers who, facing similar strategic dilemmas, sometimes hesitate to take clear public positions for fear of upsetting the more powerful diplomatic sensitivities within the Atlantic Alliance.

A Leadership Lesson That Goes Beyond the Turkish File Alone

This columnist concludes this analysis by noting that the leadership lesson offered by Theo Francken on the Turkish file goes well beyond this single bilateral issue: it illustrates a method of strategic conviction built on constant repetition, factual documentation and a refusal to yield to excessive diplomatic caution, a method all Western leaders could draw inspiration from in facing today's security challenges.

This method, applied with the same rigor to other urgent strategic files, could significantly accelerate the West's collective ability to adapt to the converging threats from Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Conclusion: A Belgian Pragmatism That Should Inspire the Whole Alliance

What This File Reveals About the Evolution of Western Mindsets

Theo Francken's documented journey, from his visit to the Baykar facilities in May 2026 to his most recent statements ahead of the Ankara summit, illustrates a gradual but real evolution in Western attitudes toward Turkey, moving from cautious distrust to pragmatic recognition of its unavoidable strategic and industrial importance.

This columnist believes this evolution, if it spreads to other European capitals in the months following the Ankara summit, could mark a lasting turning point in Western security architecture, at a moment when every additional military and industrial capability matters against the persistent Russian threat.

An Invitation to Generalize This Strategic Pragmatism

This columnist closes this report by inviting all European capitals to draw inspiration from the pragmatism displayed by Theo Francken: openly acknowledging the strategic and industrial value of diplomatically complex partners, rather than letting one-off bilateral tensions slow a defense cooperation whose urgency has never been greater since the start of Russia's war against Ukraine.

The West, if it truly wants to compete with the growing coordination between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, can no longer afford to let diplomatic pride or internal political calculations delay the integration of industrial partners as valuable as Turkey.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's Transparency Note

Who I Am and My Acknowledged Biases

I am a columnist, not a certified expert in international relations or the defense industry. My treatment of this file applies an acknowledged principle: I believe the West must remain the center of the international order, and that broader transatlantic solidarity, including with industrial partners like Turkey, remains essential against today's converging threats.

I also acknowledge that I do not have access to the internal diplomatic discussions between Ankara and European capitals on bilateral issues still pending, a limitation I explicitly flag rather than speculate about their exact content.

What I Don't Know and My Method

I don't know whether Turkish integration into the SAFE-II program will actually materialize in the months following the Ankara summit, nor what precise conditions will be required from both sides to finalize this industrial integration, questions on which no source consulted allows for a definitive answer at this stage.

My method consists of cross-referencing Theo Francken's official statements, reported by the Anadolu agency and other recognized international press sources, with the broader context of the NATO summit in Ankara, systematically flagging the limits of what these sources allow us to state with certainty.

Sources

Primary sources

Anadolu Agency — Belgian defense minister says NATO needs Türkiye, praises Turkish technology, 2026

Anadolu Agency — Factbox, NATO defense spending, where Allies stand ahead of Ankara summit, 2026

Secondary sources

Ahmedoglu — Türkiye, from the margins to the center, analysis, 2026

Reuters — Aerospace & Defense, ongoing coverage, 2026

Wikipedia — 2026 Ankara NATO summit, reference file, 2026

Forbes — What defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit, July 1, 2026