Turkey, NATO's Growing Pillar as the US Pulls Back

Introduction: an assessment from the Netherlands ahead of the Ankara summit

A blunt statement days before the summit

The Dutch defense chief, General Onno Eichelsheim, gave the Anadolu news agency an assessment that neatly sums up the current mood inside NATO: Turkey'sstrategic role within the Alliance will keep growing as the United States scales back some of its deployed capabilities in Europe. This statement, made during a visit to Ankara ahead of the NATO summit scheduled for Monday and Tuesday, points to a major strategic repositioning within the Atlantic Alliance.

The timing isn't incidental: just days before a pivotal summit where the 32 member states must show they can turn the budgetcommitments made last year in The Hague into concrete reality, this public acknowledgment of Turkey's growing role sends a clear signal about the new European security architecture taking shape.

Why this assessment matters

Turkey fields NATO's second-largest armed force, guards the Alliance's southeastern flank, and has a defense industry capable of meeting a growing share of European military capability needs. This threefold advantage positions Ankara as an unavoidable player amid the current recalibration of American military presence on the continent.

This recognition comes as Washington has confirmed reductions in brigades, fighter jets, and naval capabilities stationed in Europe, a shift that's mechanically pushing several European allies to fill the capability gaps left by this American strategic pivot toward the Indo-Pacific.

The priority target of 3.5% in Ankara

Turning a commitment into budgetary reality

According to General Eichelsheim, the single most important outcome expected from the Ankarasummit would be the concrete implementation of the commitment to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP, a pledge made at the previous summit in The Hague. This interim target fits within a broader trajectory toward the final goal of 5% set for 2035.

The Netherlands has already prepared a white paper demonstrating its intent to reach, or even exceed, the 5% target, a posture that reflects a Dutch commitment to lead by example rather than simply demanding effort from other European allies.

A Europe that must do more without replacing the United States

The Dutch general stresses an essential balancing point: Europe must take on more responsibility to offset the gradual withdrawal of certain American capabilities, without pretending it can entirely do without Washington's support. This nuance reflects a persistent strategic reality, one where Europe has the potential to close the gaps but needs time to fully get there.

This honest acknowledgment of the current limits of Europeancapabilities avoids the double trap of denial about the American drawdown and excessive doom-saying that would ignore the real progress several European countries have already made in recent years.

Turkey, the Alliance's second-largest armed force

A military weight often underestimated in Western Europe

It's striking how often Turkey's real military weight gets underestimated in European discussions about collective defense. With NATO's second-largest army by personnel, Ankara has a mobilization capacity that few other Alliance members can match, a major strategic asset amid the current prolonged tension with Russia.

This military reality comes alongside a booming Turkish defense industry, capable of producing drones, armored vehicles, and anti-aircraft defense systems at competitive costs, an industrial capacity drawing growing interest from other Alliance members looking to diversify their military supply sources.

A strategic geographic role on the southeastern flank

Turkey's geographic position, at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea, gives it a unique strategic role for monitoring and deterring Russian military activity in this sensitive region. This geography, combined with its military power, explains why many allies increasingly see Ankara as an unavoidable partner.

This Turkish geographic centrality takes on renewed importance as the war in Ukraine continues to directly affect stability in the Black Sea region, a theater where cooperation with Turkey is becoming strategically indispensable for the entire Atlantic Alliance.

The "NATO 3.0" concept and its implications

Rethinking collective resilience against new threats

The concept dubbed "NATO 3.0" rests on the idea that modern deterrence requires not just resilient societies, but also a robust, diversified defenseindustrial base, combining both costly, sophisticated weapons systems and cheaper solutions like drones and lighter interception systems.

This two-track approach reflects lessons drawn from the conflict in Ukraine, where the massive use of cheap drones has proven its tactical effectiveness, alongside the pricier anti-aircraft defense systems traditionally favored by Western military planners.

Joint exercises and greater experience-sharing

This new doctrine comes with a stated intent to strengthen joint military exercises among allies, potentially including deeper bilateral collaboration with Turkey, covering equipment interoperability, training at defense academies, and sharing lessons drawn directly from the Ukrainian battlefield.

This collaborative dimension illustrates a positive shift in the Alliance's strategic culture, moving from a siloed, country-by-country approach toward deeper integration of capabilities and tactical lessons among partners with complementary military profiles.

The broader context of the Ankara summit

Trump's presence as a political signal

Donald Trump's expected attendance at the Ankara summit underscores the importance Washington places on this new strategic configuration highlighting Turkey's role. This American presidential presence, in a country of growing importance within the Alliance, reflects Washington's implicit recognition of Ankara's rising strategic weight in the Western security architecture.

On this specific military file, credit goes to Trump for keeping constant pressure on European allies to raise their defense budgets, pressure that has helped accelerate rearmament dynamics that decades of more genteel diplomacy had never managed to produce this quickly.

The other items on the agenda

Beyond the budget question alone, the summit will also need to address continued support for Ukraine, Western defense industrial output, and the security of sensitive zones like the Strait of Hormuz, against a regional backdrop marked by lingering tensions inherited from the Israel-Iran conflict of winter and spring 2026.

This packed agenda illustrates the scale of security challenges the Alliance must address simultaneously, at a time when the margin for strategic error keeps shrinking against adversaries, namely Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, who are increasingly coordinating their own strategic interests.

The persistent challenges of cooperating with Ankara

Historically complex relations still to overcome

It would be naive to claim that the relationship between Turkey and its Western partners within NATO has always been simple. Persistent disagreements over several regional files and occasional divergences on policy toward certain Middle Eastern actors have at times complicated Ankara's full strategic integration into the Alliance in recent years.

These historical complexities shouldn't, however, obscure the pragmatic need to strengthen cooperation with a partner whose military weight and geographic position grow more decisive every year for collective security against a Russia showing no sign of easing its aggression against Ukraine.

A strategic pragmatism that must prevail

Given the scale of shared threats, particularly from Russia, strategic pragmatism must now take precedence over occasional political disputes between Ankara and its Western partners. This pragmatic approach already seems to be at work, as shown by General Eichelsheim's statement explicitly acknowledging the growing importance of Turkey's role in the Alliance's strategic balance.

This growing pragmatism among allies with sometimes divergent profiles is precisely the kind of strategic maturity NATO needs to remain a credible deterrent force against adversaries who, for their part, closely coordinate their own shared geopolitical interests.

Turkey's defense industry as an added asset for the Alliance

Booming production of drones and armored vehicles

Beyond its sheer numbers, Turkey has built, over the past decade, a national defense industry capable of producing combat drones, armored vehicles, and anti-aircraft defense systems at costs well below those of major traditional Western manufacturers. This local production capacity, largely fueled by the operational successes of the Bayraktar TB2 drone across several conflict theaters, gives Ankara growing commercial and strategic influence with several allied governments looking to diversify their military supply sources.

Several European countries, facing longer delivery times from traditional Western suppliers, have already opened discussions with Turkish manufacturers to acquire complementary defense systems, a trend likely to accelerate if the Ankara summit produces concrete commitments for deeper industrial cooperation among allies.

A partner increasingly sought out by Ukraine itself

Turkish-Ukrainian military cooperation, already solid before Russia's 2022 invasion, has deepened further since, with Kyiv continuing to rely on certain Turkish equipment to round out its arsenal against Russia. This bilateral relationship concretely illustrates how Turkey's industrial rise directly benefits Ukrainian resistance, beyond institutional discussions within NATO alone.

Ankara also retains a distinctive diplomatic role, having facilitated several prisoner exchanges and maintained a dialogue channel with Moscow, a balancing act that, far from weakening its Western credibility, instead demonstrates a regional influence capacity that few other Alliance members can claim today.

The legitimate concerns that remain regardless

The still-sensitive question of Russian equipment

It would be dishonest to ignore that Turkey previously acquired Russian S-400 anti-aircraft defense systems, a decision that triggered sharp tensions with Washington and led to Ankara's exclusion from the F-35 fighter jet program. This lingering gray zone is a reminder that Turkey's strategic integration into the Alliance, however positive today, shouldn't obscure past choices that continue to weigh on the trust of some Western partners.

This residual wariness, while legitimate, shouldn't prevent the Alliance from fully leveraging the very real military and industrial assets Turkey offers today, at a time when the absolute priority remains collective deterrence against Russian aggression showing no sign of slowing.

Necessary vigilance without slipping into presumption of guilt

Western vigilance regarding Turkish strategic choices remains justified, but it must never turn into a blanket presumption of guilt that would block any constructive cooperation. The balance to strike is to fully welcome Ankara's positive contributions to collective security, while maintaining a demanding dialogue on the issues where differences persist.

It's precisely this pragmatic balance that General Eichelsheim's statement seems to embody, acknowledging Turkey's strategic weight without denying the historical complexities that continue to shape the relationship between Ankara and its Western partners within NATO.

Conclusion: a strong signal for Western unity

A recognition arriving at the right moment

General Eichelsheim's statement comes at a pivotal moment for the Atlantic Alliance, as the Ankara summit must demonstrate the Allies' collective ability to turn budgetary commitments into concrete reality, while fully embracing new strategic balances in which Turkey holds a growing and deserved place.

This public recognition of Turkey's role, far from being a mere diplomatic formality, reflects a deep structural shift in the European security architecture, one set to consolidate further in the years ahead as the Russian threat to the continent persists.

Ankara as a test of Western solidarity

The Ankara summit will be an important test of the West's ability to harmoniously integrate new internal power balances within the Alliance, without ever losing sight of the fundamental shared goal: maintaining credible deterrence against Russia and preserving the collective security of a European continent that remains, more than ever, at the center of global geopolitical stakes.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I write this piece as an openly pro-Western, pro-NATO observer, convinced that collective deterrence against Russia is an essential strategic priority. I credit Donald Trump on this specific military file while relying exclusively on verifiable public sources.

What I don't know, and my method

I cannot guarantee that the budgetary commitments discussed in Ankara will actually translate into concrete decisions in the following months. My method is to cross-check multiple recognized journalistic sources before making any factual claim, clearly separating established facts from my personal editorial commentary.

Sources

Primary sources

Anadolu Agency — Dutch defense chief predicts a growing role for Turkey, July 5, 2026

Anadolu Agency — Where NATO allies stand ahead of the Ankara summit

Secondary sources

Washington Post — Trump's attendance at NATO summit will highlight Turkey, July 3, 2026

Reuters — Defense and aerospace news

Wikipedia — 2026 Ankara NATO summit

Forbes — What defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit