Turkey Ready to Ditch Its Russian S-400s to Return to the F-35

A file frozen since 2019

Since 2019, Turkey has been excluded from the American stealth fighter program F-35 after purchasing the Russian S-400 air-defense systems, a decision that triggered American sanctions under the CAATSA regime in December 2020. Since then, Ankara has relentlessly demanded its reinstatement into the program, a dispute that has poisoned relations between the two NATO member states for more than six years.

Ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara planned for early July 2026, several outlets report that Turkey is seriously exploring the option of selling its S-400s to a third country, a move that would remove the legal obstacle blocking its return to the F-35 program. This is a development I would call potentially historic for the cohesion of the Atlantic Alliance.

Why this file matters to all of NATO

Turkey's possible reinstatement into the F-35 program would not be a simple bilateral matter between Washington and Ankara. It would directly affect the coherence of NATO's collective defense posture against Russia, at a time when every additional military capability matters to deter Moscow from any adventure beyond Ukraine.

A choice that cost Ankara dearly

Turkey's acquisition of the Russian S-400 systems had been justified by Ankara as a necessity for air defense against regional threats. But Washington immediately deemed the purchase incompatible with the integrity of the F-35 program, fearing that Russian radars could collect sensitive data on the American jet's stealth capabilities if the two systems operated on the same territory.

The penalty was severe: Turkey was expelled from the F-35 production and purchase program in 2019, losing both its aircraft orders and its industrial participation in the plane's international production chain. The CAATSA sanctions imposed in December 2020 directly targeted Turkey's defense-industry presidency.

Six years of diplomatic tension

Since that rupture, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has never stopped repeating that his country's return to the F-35 program was an essential condition for NATO's security as a whole. On January 5, 2026, he was still publicly declaring that this reinstatement was a cornerstone of the Alliance's security, according to remarks reported by Bloomberg.

South Korea floated as a potential buyer

According to several reports circulating in late June 2026, the American administration is reportedly considering allowing Turkey's return to the F-35 program on condition that the S-400 systems are sold to a third country rather than returned to Russia. The outlet Euractiv reported this option, later picked up by several publications, which mention South Korea as a plausible potential buyer.

This solution would defuse the original security problem without publicly humiliating Ankara, which could present the sale as a sovereign decision rather than a capitulation to American demands. It's a clever diplomatic compromise, if it actually materializes.

Turkey's September 2025 denial

It should be noted that Turkey's Ministry of Defense had denied as early as September 2025 any intention to sell its S-400s, calling such rumors baseless. That earlier denial casts legitimate doubt on the solidity of the current scenario, and I refuse to present it as an established certainty.

A tug-of-war between the Pentagon and diplomacy

American Vice President JD Vance confirmed that the Pentagon, under the leadership of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, is currently examining whether Turkey meets the legal criteria needed for its reinstatement into the F-35 program. This technical and legal review is a mandatory step before any final political decision by the White House.

The outlet Al-Monitor reported as early as June 25, 2026 that Donald Trump himself had hinted that a major diplomatic breakthrough on this file could come before the NATO summit, a strong signal of the president's determination to resolve this dispute ahead of his visit to Turkey.

A calculated gesture before Ankara

According to Kurdistan24, Trump would travel to Ankara with a concrete offer on the F-35 as well as other commercial gestures toward President Erdogan, which would mark the first visit by a sitting American president to Turkey since Barack Obama's in 2015. This diplomatic symbol is not trivial in the context of rebuilding transatlantic trust.

A bipartisan resolution to block the return

Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program is not unanimously welcomed in Washington. According to Turkish Minute, American lawmakers, led by Democratic Representative Dina Titus, were preparing as early as June 29, 2026 a bipartisan resolution specifically aimed at blocking this reinstatement as long as Turkey still holds the Russian S-400 systems.

This legislative push illustrates the persistent distrust part of Congress holds toward Ankara, particularly regarding the risks posed by the presence of Russian equipment on the territory of a NATO member state with potential access to the most sensitive American stealth technologies.

The Senate's weight in the equation

According to Newsmax, a bipartisan letter was also sent to Trump in early July 2026 urging him to reject any Turkish return to the F-35 program. The chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Republican Jim Risch, is among the firmest voices against this reinstatement, which considerably complicates the president's room for maneuver on this file.

A law that blocks any transaction as long as the S-400s stay in Turkey

The legal core of the problem rests on Section 1245 of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2020, which formally bans any transfer of F-35 technology as long as Turkey retains the S-400 systems on its soil. This legal provision explains why Trump's political will alone is not enough to unlock the file without a concrete gesture from Ankara.

It is precisely this legal constraint that makes the third-country sale scenario so attractive to both parties: it would let them honor the letter of American law without Ankara having to publicly admit a past strategic mistake.

Similar legal precedents

Other countries have faced similar dilemmas in the past between Russian acquisitions and Western partnerships, but none reaches the strategic scale of Turkey's case, NATO's second-largest army by troop numbers and a key player on the Alliance's southeastern flank against Russia and the Middle East.

A good-faith gesture before the summit

Alongside the F-35 file, the American administration has notified Congress of its intent to proceed with a sale of F110 engines destined for the Turkish Kaan fighter jet, a national project Turkey is developing to reduce its dependence on foreign aircraft. This sale, valued at roughly $700 million, is presented by Ankara as a preliminary step toward a broader normalization of defense relations with Washington.

According to Reuters, this advance on the F110 engines was announced as early as June 24, 2026, even before the rumors about the S-400 sale, suggesting a gradual, coordinated thaw rather than a last-minute improvised decision before the summit.

The strategic link between the two files

The Kaan program and the F-35 file are closely tied in Turkish strategy: by demonstrating its ability to produce a competitive national fighter while negotiating its return to the American program, Ankara seeks to maximize its influence and industrial sovereignty, regardless of the final outcome of the S-400 negotiations.

The return of a major industrial partner

Before its exclusion in 2019, Turkey manufactured several essential F-35 components, including fuselage elements and landing gear. Its return to the program would represent significant relief for manufacturer Lockheed Martin's supply chain, currently under pressure to meet growing demand from NATO allies facing the Russian threat.

This industrial dimension explains why some American officials, outside the most cautious security circles, are actively pushing for a quick resolution of the Turkish file, independent of the purely diplomatic or symbolic considerations of the Ankara summit.

The economic payoff for Ankara

For Turkey, reinstatement into the F-35 program would also represent a major economic gain, with the revival of industrial contracts suspended for six years and the chance to renew its aging air fleet amid growing regional defense needs in an unstable Middle East.

Moscow watches with concern

A potential Turkish abandonment of the S-400 systems would be a symbolic setback for Moscow, which had once presented this sale as proof of its ability to pierce NATO's ranks and sow discord among Western allies. Losing this emblematic contract would instead confirm the resilience of Atlantic cohesion against Russian attempts at division.

The Kremlin has not yet officially reacted to these reports, but Russian military analysts are closely following this file, aware that it illustrates the limits of Russian influence over the strategic decisions of its trading partners, even those with significant economic ties to Moscow.

A signal for other potential Russian clients

This Turkish file could also influence other countries that have considered or carried out purchases of Russian military equipment, showing them the lasting diplomatic and economic consequences of such a choice under American and Western pressure.

Renewed cohesion against Russia

Resolving this Turkish dispute just days before the NATO summit in Ankara would send a strong signal of cohesion at a critical moment in the war in Ukraine and persistent tensions with Russia. A united Alliance, where even its most difficult members find a negotiated solution, strengthens the credibility of collective Western deterrence.

Western defense officials, cited notably by Forbes, stress that this summit must above all demonstrate NATO's ability to maintain strategic unity despite internal divergences, in a context where China, Iran, and North Korea are closely watching for signs of Western weakness.

Turkey's pivotal role in the security architecture

Turkey's geographic position, at the hinge between Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea region, makes it an ally whose strategic loyalty remains indispensable, even when its past choices have cast doubt on its full reliability toward NATO.

The lack of concrete guarantees

Despite the optimism displayed by some sources close to the file, several security experts point out that no firm S-400 sale has been officially confirmed by Ankara to date. Skepticism remains warranted until a signed agreement is made public by Turkish or American authorities.

This caution is reinforced by the earlier Turkish denial from September 2025, a reminder that statements of intent don't always translate into concrete actions on this highly sensitive matter of Turkish national sovereignty.

The risk of another diplomatic failure

If the Ankara summit ends without concrete progress on this file, it could reignite tensions between Washington and Ankara, with the risk that Turkey turns further toward other industrial partners, notably through its national Kaan program, reducing its dependence on American equipment even further.

Aerospace industry workers left waiting

Behind the diplomatic maneuvering lie thousands of industrial jobs, both in the United States and in Turkey, hanging on the outcome of these negotiations. The skilled Turkish workers who once manufactured F-35 components have been waiting six years for a clear signal about the future of their sector, held hostage by geopolitical considerations far beyond their control.

This human reality, often absent from strictly strategic analyses, deserves to be remembered: the decisions made in Ankara and Washington in the coming days will have a concrete impact on entire families whose incomes depend on this transatlantic defense industry.

Service members on the ground, the first affected

For pilots and air forces of NATO member states, resolving this Turkish file would also represent a concrete operational gain, with better interoperability between allied fleets facing a Russian threat that shows no sign of retreat on the Ukrainian front.

The NATO summit as the moment of truth

The NATO summit in Ankara, set to bring together Alliance leaders in the coming days, looms as the pivotal moment when this file could finally be resolved, one way or the other. Donald Trump is expected to hold a bilateral meeting with President Erdogan even before the leaders' official dinner, a sign of the priority given to this dispute.

Diplomatic observers expect at least a partial announcement to be made during this summit, if only to send a positive political signal before the broader discussions on support for Ukraine and strengthening NATO's eastern flank.

The next legislative steps in Washington

Even with a preliminary agreement between Trump and Erdogan, the file will still have to clear the hurdle of the American Congress, where the bipartisan resolution led by Dina Titus could delay or complicate its concrete implementation, even after a confirmed sale of the S-400s to a third country.

Greece and Poland, examples of successful cooperation

Unlike Turkey, other NATO members such as Greece and Poland have recently deepened their integration within Western defense programs without ever introducing Russian equipment that could compromise the Alliance's interoperability. These positive examples illustrate what a fully reinstated Turkey could look like, without the complications tied to its past Russian purchases.

Poland, in particular, has ramped up orders for F-35s and other advanced Western systems in recent years, becoming a model of rapid rearmament consistent with NATO standards — a trajectory Washington would like to see Ankara eventually follow.

The cost of isolation for Turkey

Turkey's prolonged exclusion from the F-35 program has already cost its defense industry dearly, depriving it of contracts and technology transfers that its European NATO neighbors were able to obtain freely during these same years. This regional comparison partly explains the urgency Ankara feels to resolve this file before it becomes irreversible.

An opportunity NATO cannot afford to miss

This Turkish file perfectly illustrates the internal tensions NATO must manage while maintaining a facade of unity against Russia. If Turkey truly gives up its S-400s and regains its place in the F-35 program, it will be a net gain for Western military cohesion at a critical moment in the Ukrainian conflict and rising tensions with the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea axis.

Staying vigilant despite the optimism

But nothing is signed yet, and the recent history of Turkish-American relations calls for caution before celebrating an outcome that could still collapse at the last minute, as so many similar files have in this complex and often unpredictable bilateral relationship.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

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