Spain Must Stop Holding Back NATO's Defense Effort

Introduction: the last obstacle before Ankara

A summit approaching, a resistance that persists

As the NATO summit in Ankara, set for July 7 and 8, 2026, draws near, German officials have warned Madrid that Spain can no longer count on political cover from its European partners over the Alliance's push to raise defense spending. This message, reported by several recent analyses, illustrates the growing impatience of part of Europe with a partner seen as too reluctant to carry its fair share of the collective burden.

Spain remains the main obstacle to a consensus among the 32 members of the Alliance, insisting on the need for equitable burden-sharing rather than uniform numerical targets imposed on every member country.

A context inherited from the Hague summit

This tension has its roots in the commitment made at the Hague summit in June 2025, where Allies agreed to raise their defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, an ambitious target that requires considerable budgetary effort from every member country.

A year after that commitment, Spain continues to drag its feet, which worries partners like Germany, which has itself massively accelerated its own rearmament since the start of the decade.

The Ankara summit, a pivotal moment

The 36th summit in the Alliance's history

The Ankara summit, to be held on July 7 and 8, 2026, will be the 36th summit in NATO's history and only the second hosted by Turkey. This choice of venue is no accident: it underscores Ankara's growing strategic role in Europe's security architecture, sitting directly at the frontier of tensions with Russia and the Middle East.

According to Forbes, analyst Mark Temnycky notes that defense spending will be at the heart of discussions among allied leaders, alongside other major strategic files concerning the West's military posture.

A credibility test for the whole Alliance

This summit represents an important credibility test: NATO's ability to present a united front on defense spending will directly shape how strategic adversaries of the West perceive the Alliance, starting with Moscow and Beijing.

A fragile consensus or an exception granted to Spain would send a signal of weakness the Alliance cannot afford in the current geopolitical climate.

Spain's position, dissected

An equitable burden-sharing argument

The Spanish government justifies its resistance by invoking the need for equitable burden-sharing among the Alliance's 32 members, arguing that the uniform target of 5% of GDP does not sufficiently account for economic and strategic differences between member countries.

This argument, while understandable from an economic standpoint, runs into a strategic reality: NATO's collective deterrence depends directly on every member's ability to honor its commitments, regardless of internal budgetary preferences.

An isolated position within the Alliance

According to a factbox published by Anadolu Agency (AA.com.tr), Spain is increasingly standing apart from other members, most of whom have accepted, at least in principle, the trajectory toward 5% of GDP by 2035.

This growing isolation of Madrid within allied discussions weakens its negotiating position as the Ankara summit approaches.

The German warning, a strong signal

Berlin raises the tone toward Madrid

German officials have made clear that Spain can no longer hide behind European solidarity to avoid raising its defense spending, a rare warning from a European partner usually cautious in its public criticism of other Alliance members.

This German stance reflects the growing frustration of a country that has itself dramatically transformed its defense posture since 2022, investing considerable sums in modernizing its military.

Pressure that could intensify before Ankara

As the Ankara summit approaches, other member countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe most exposed to the Russian threat, are likely to add their voices to the pressure being placed on Madrid.

This dynamic of collective pressure could force Spain to revise its position even before formal discussions open at the summit.

The context of European rearmament

A general acceleration since 2022

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, nearly all of NATO's European members have accelerated their defense investments, a trend further reinforced by the Hague commitment to 5% of GDP.

This broad rearmament dynamic is one of the most significant transformations of Western strategic posture since the end of the Cold War.

Spain, the exception rather than the rule

In this context of widespread mobilization, Spain's position increasingly looks like an exception that is hard to justify, particularly for a member of the European Union directly concerned with the continent's security.

This Spanish exception risks becoming a lasting point of friction within the Alliance if it isn't resolved quickly, whether at Ankara or at future summits.

What the summit's broader context tells us

Beyond spending, a command reform

The Ankara summit will not be limited to budgetary questions: according to the Conference Board's backgrounder, allied leaders are also expected to discuss the evolution of the Alliance's command structures, including expanded powers for the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.

This convergence of major strategic files underscores the particular importance of this summit for the Alliance's trajectory in the years ahead.

A deterrence posture to shore up in the East

Strengthening the deterrence posture on the eastern flank, particularly in light of the Russian drone incursions documented in recent months, requires budgetary consistency that Spanish resistance directly complicates.

Every euro not invested by an Alliance member represents, in theory, extra effort that other countries must make up to maintain the overall credibility of Western deterrence.

Washington's role in this dynamic

A Trump administration pushing for greater European effort

The Trump administration, which has consistently demanded a more equitable sharing of the defense burden between the United States and its European allies, is closely watching the outcome of this standoff between Madrid and the rest of the Alliance.

According to Eurasia Review, Washington is also seeking to ease European concerns over a potential drawdown of American troops, an issue closely tied to the broader question of sharing defense costs.

A transatlantic coherence worth preserving

On this specific issue, the pressure being placed on Spain directly aligns with Washington's priorities, illustrating a rare but welcome transatlantic convergence on the need for a more robust and better-shared European rearmament.

This convergence between American demands and internal European pressure could well be the decisive lever that forces Madrid to revise its position before or during the Ankara summit.

The consequences of a failure at Ankara

A signal of weakness for the West's adversaries

If the Ankara summit were to end without a clear, unanimous commitment on defense spending, it would be read by strategic adversaries such as Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea as a sign of exploitable division within the West.

These authoritarian regimes closely watch every crack in Western unity, looking to exploit any collective hesitation to advance their own strategic interests, whether in Ukraine, Taiwan, or elsewhere.

A missed opportunity to reaffirm Western strength

Conversely, a clear agreement at Ankara, including Spain, would send a message of collective resolve that would considerably strengthen NATO's negotiating position against its strategic adversaries in the months ahead.

That is precisely the opportunity at stake in the current negotiations surrounding Spain's position ahead of the summit.

Lessons for the Alliance's future

Strengthening collective accountability mechanisms

This crisis over Spain's position highlights the need for NATO to strengthen its internal accountability mechanisms, to prevent collective commitments like the one made at The Hague from turning into promises with no real consequences for countries that fail to honor them.

Stricter monitoring mechanisms, including regular public reporting on each member country's progress, could help prevent similar situations in the future.

An Alliance that must remain credible on its commitments

NATO's credibility rests entirely on its ability to honor its commitments collectively: every exception tolerated further weakens the deterrent force the Alliance represents against its strategic adversaries.

It is this credibility, more than any other issue, that is truly at stake in the current standoff between Madrid and its European partners.

Turkey's strategic role as host

Ankara, a significant geopolitical choice

The choice of Ankara as host city for the summit underscores Turkey's growing strategic importance within NATO, sitting at the crossroads of tensions with Russia, the Middle East, and energy routes critical to Europe.

Turkey has mobilized considerable security resources for this summit, with F-16s on high alert and more than 40,000 security personnel deployed for the duration of the event.

A sometimes complex but strategically essential partner

Despite occasionally tense relations with certain Western NATO members, Turkey remains an essential strategic partner, notably for its unique geographic position and significant military capability within the Alliance.

This summit gives Ankara an opportunity to reaffirm its central role in the Western security architecture, beyond occasional friction with certain allies.

What this means for Canadian security

Canada, an ally equally implicated in these debates

Although the current controversy centers on Spain, the debate over equitable defense burden-sharing also concerns countries like Canada, regularly criticized by its partners for military investments deemed insufficient by the Alliance's own standards.

This Canadian parallel is a reminder that the pressure now on Madrid could well shift, in the near future, to other Western capitals just as reluctant to accelerate their defense investments.

A lesson applicable to every hesitant member

The arguments raised against Spain's position apply just as much to any other member country that delays honoring the defense spending commitments made collectively within NATO.

This dynamic of widespread pressure could well become the norm for every member deemed insufficiently committed in the years ahead.

Toward a probable but fragile agreement

Signs of a compromise taking shape

Despite the resistance displayed by Madrid, several observers believe a compromise remains likely before or during the Ankara summit, with Spain likely seeking to avoid complete isolation within the Alliance while preserving some budgetary room to maneuver.

This kind of last-minute compromise is common in NATO's diplomatic history, where public tensions often precede agreements quietly negotiated behind the scenes.

A fragility that could resurface later

Even if an agreement is reached at Ankara, there is no guarantee the burden-sharing question won't resurface at future summits, as long as significant gaps remain between the actual budgetary efforts of different Alliance members.

This structural fragility is a reminder that NATO's cohesion on budgetary matters will require constant vigilance, well beyond the July summit alone.

The importance of maintaining pressure on Madrid

Not relaxing the demand for collective coherence

Spain's European and American partners must continue applying firm pressure on Madrid, without giving in to the temptation of an overly generous compromise that would gut the collective commitment made at The Hague of its meaning.

This firmness is not about punishing Spain, but about preserving the integrity of a system of collective commitments on which the entire credibility of Western deterrence rests.

A precedent that goes beyond the Spanish case alone

How NATO resolves this impasse with Spain will set an important precedent for handling similar disagreements with other members in the future, in a geopolitical context where Western unity cannot afford any apparent weakness.

It is this logic of precedent that must guide negotiations in the days leading up to the Ankara summit.

The specific weight of the Russian threat on the southern flank

A threat sometimes underestimated by Madrid

Some analysts believe that Spain, geographically distant from the eastern flank directly exposed to Russia, underestimates the global nature of the strategic threat Moscow poses to the entire Alliance, including countries on the southern flank.

This geographic distance does nothing to diminish Madrid's collective responsibility in funding a deterrence that also benefits its own national security, notably through the stability of the Mediterranean and the Maghreb.

The links between Mediterranean security and the eastern flank

Mediterranean security, a longstanding concern for Spain, is closely tied to NATO's overall stability, including its ability to effectively deter Russia on its eastern flank.

An Alliance weakened financially on one front always ends up affecting its overall capacity to act, including on fronts that directly concern Madrid.

Conclusion: Western unity is not negotiated at a discount

A summit that must decide, not sidestep

The Ankara summit represents an opportunity for NATO to clearly settle the question of defense burden-sharing, rather than indefinitely postponing a debate that weakens the Alliance's collective credibility against increasingly bold adversaries.

Spain must clearly choose its side

It now falls to Madrid to demonstrate, through concrete and verifiable commitments, that it takes seriously its share of responsibility in the collective defense of the West against the combined threats of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I write this piece as an openly pro-Western, pro-defense columnist, convinced that NATO's collective rearmament is necessary against the combined threats of Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. I credit the Trump administration when its push for equitable burden-sharing strengthens the Western military posture.

What I don't know, and my method

I cannot predict with certainty whether Spain will accept a compromise before or during the Ankara summit. This analysis relies on reporting from Eurasia Review, the Washington Times, Forbes, and the Anadolu Agency factbox, published between June 25 and July 3, 2026.

Sources

Primary sources

NATO — official overview of the 2026 Ankara summit

Conference Board — backgrounder on the Ankara summit, June 25, 2026

Secondary sources

Eurasia Review — US seeks to ease Europe troop drawdown concerns at NATO summit in Ankara, July 3, 2026

Washington Times — Bigger defense spending top agenda at upcoming NATO summit in Turkey, June 25, 2026

Forbes — What defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit, July 1, 2026

Anadolu Agency — Factbox: NATO defense spending, where allies stand ahead of Ankara summit