Estonia and Latvia Face Drones Violating Their Skies for Months

Introduction: a Baltic sky turned gray zone

A string of incidents piling up since spring

Since spring 2026, Estonia and Latvia have faced a worrying succession of drone incursions into their airspace, a situation fueling concerns about the hybrid harassment strategy being waged along NATO's eastern flank, ahead of the Alliance summit in Ankara.

What makes this story particularly delicate to tell is its factual complexity: several of these drones appear to be Ukrainian aircraft diverted from their course by Russian electronic jamming, rather than direct, deliberate attacks by Moscow on NATO territory, a nuance Baltic authorities themselves are careful to underline.

June 8, a first historic shootdown over Latvia

On June 8, 2026, French fighter jets deployed under NATO's air policing mission shot down a drone over the village of Berzgale, in Latvia, an event described as the first interception of its kind carried out by the Alliance over Latvian territory since the conflict began.

A timeline stretching back to late March

The first shock, an impact on an Estonian power plant

The documented string of incidents begins as early as late March 2026, when drones entered Estonian and Latvian airspace, one of them striking the smokestack of the Auvere power plant in Estonia, while another crashed in the Krāslava region of Latvia, causing no casualties but triggering an immediate political shockwave in both countries.

A few days later, between March 29 and 31, Finland also reported similar violations of its airspace, confirming that this phenomenon was not confined to the Baltic states alone but more broadly affected countries bordering the Baltic Sea that share a frontier with Russia's military sphere of influence.

May, the month the political crisis broke

On May 7, an oil storage site located in Rēzekne, Latvia, was hit, damaging four empty tanks. This incident directly precipitated the resignation, on May 10, of Latvian Defense Minister Andris Sprūds, ahead of the complete collapse of the Latvian government on May 14, unable to politically manage the succession of these incidents.

May 19, the Romanian interception over Estonia

A Romanian F-16 shoots down a suspected Ukrainian drone

On May 19, 2026, a Romanian F-16 fighter jet, also deployed under NATO's air policing mission, shot down a drone suspected of Ukrainian origin over Estonian territory, an episode that concretely illustrates the theory that part of these incursions come from diverted Ukrainian aircraft rather than deliberate Russian launches.

This technical distinction, however, changes nothing about the political gravity of the situation: whether the origin is Russian electronic jamming diverting a Ukrainian drone, or an incursion directly piloted from Russian territory, underlying responsibility falls on the massive electronic warfare Moscow has waged across the entire region since it began its invasion of Ukraine.

Vilnius paralyzed on May 20 and 21

In the aftermath, Lithuania issued an aerial danger alert that led to the temporary closure of Vilnius Airport on May 20 and 21, disrupting thousands of travelers and illustrating the tangible impact of these incidents on the daily lives of Baltic populations, well beyond purely military and diplomatic considerations.

The Estonian foreign minister's reading of events

Margus Tsahkna denounces deliberate manipulation

Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna made a particularly serious accusation: according to him, Moscow is deliberately steering certain Ukrainian drones toward NATO airspace with the specific aim of eroding Western support for Kyiv, by sowing confusion over the real origin of the incursions and wearing down European public opinion.

This hypothesis, if fully confirmed, would turn these Baltic incidents into a calculated instrument of psychological warfare, where the confusion maintained between technical error and deliberate provocation would itself become a weapon serving the Kremlin's strategic goals against Western cohesion.

An accusation hard to prove, impossible to ignore

No definitive public proof currently allows for a firm determination between a mere side effect of the massive Russian electronic jamming deployed in the region and intentional manipulation of Ukrainian drone trajectories by Russian services. This factual uncertainty, however, does not stop Baltic authorities from treating each incident with the utmost seriousness.

NATO's response, between firmness and caution

Mark Rutte denounces "dangerous and irresponsible" actions

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte reacted publicly on June 17, 2026, declaring that "such drone incidents on NATO's eastern flank show Russia's dangerous and irresponsible actions," while reaffirming "NATO's determination and capability to deter and defend" its members.

Mark Rutte stressed that "no ally stands alone within NATO," a phrase meant to reassure Baltic populations while, for now, avoiding formally and unreservedly attributing direct responsibility for each individual incident to the Russian government itself.

The Eastern Sentry and Baltic Sentry systems as reinforcement

NATO has deployed since September 2025 the operation "Eastern Sentry," designed to counter repeated airspace violations by Russian or Russia-linked aircraft, in addition to the "Baltic Sentry" system, set up the same year to protect the region's undersea cables against sabotage.

What Poland and Estonia have already experienced in the past

The precedent of invoking Article 4

Poland and Estonia have, in the past, already invoked Article 4 of the North Atlantic treaty, which allows a member to request formal consultations with its allies when it believes its territorial integrity, political independence or security is threatened, a mechanism that illustrates the gravity with which these repeated incidents are now viewed within the Alliance.

This recourse to Article 4, while it does not automatically trigger a collective military response, sends a strong political signal to Moscow: Western allies consider these repeated airspace violations serious enough to warrant formal consultation among NATO partners.

Kaja Kallas calls it an "extremely dangerous provocation"

The European Union's high representative for foreign affairs, Kaja Kallas, a former Estonian prime minister, had already described a previous incursion, which occurred in September 2025, as an "extremely dangerous provocation," a judgment that remains fully relevant given the accumulation of incidents since then.

The American position, between declared firmness and practical caution

Trump reportedly suggested shooting down intrusive Russian aircraft

According to several reports in the Western press, Donald Trump reportedly suggested to European allies that they systematically shoot down any Russian aircraft entering their airspace, an outwardly firm position that contrasts with the practical caution observed so far in the diplomatic handling of these specific incidents in the Baltic region.

This statement, while reflecting a will toward firmness, also raises questions about the coherence of the American position, notably given the parallel decisions to reduce American troops stationed in Europe announced by the same administration in recent weeks.

An ambiguity worrying Baltic capitals

This combination of firm statements and concrete gestures of military disengagement is fueling growing concern in Baltic capitals, where there are fears that American verbal firmness will not translate, when the moment comes, into a practical commitment sufficient to durably deter new incursions.

The economic consequences for border regions

Tourism and air transport directly affected

Beyond the security concerns, these repeated incidents carry a tangible economic cost for the border regions involved, with the temporary closure of Vilnius Airport notably disrupting commercial air traffic and imposing additional costs on airlines operating in the Baltic region.

International insurance companies are also, out of caution, reassessing risk premiums tied to infrastructure located near the Russian border, an indirect but very real economic consequence of this airspace instability that has persisted since spring.

Energy companies step up their vigilance

Operators of energy infrastructure, such as the Auvere plant hit in March, have had to strengthen their own surveillance and protection systems, an additional cost indirectly imposed by this hybrid war that extends well beyond Ukraine's borders alone.

Conclusion: living under a sky that is no longer entirely safe

A new, anxiety-inducing normal for Baltic populations

These repeated drone incidents in Baltic airspace, whether resulting from Russian electronic jamming diverting Ukrainian aircraft or from a more deliberate strategy of hybrid harassment, have established a form of anxiety-inducing new normal for the Estonian and Latvian populations, forced to live with the permanent uncertainty of a sky that has become a gray zone.

The Ankara summit, an opportunity for concrete answers

The NATO summit in Ankara, scheduled for July 7 and 8, 2026, represents a crucial opportunity for Baltic leaders to demand a tangible strengthening of allied air defense capabilities, even as some analysts continue to see in these incidents a deliberate attempt to test the Alliance's cohesion ahead of the budget decisions expected at that same summit.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I sign this testimony as a columnist committed to NATO's collective security and to support for Ukraine. I want to make clear that I did not personally witness these incidents and that I rely exclusively on official reports and verifiable public statements.

What I don't know, and my method

I cannot state with certainty whether each documented incursion results from unintentional electronic jamming or from deliberate manipulation of trajectories by Russian services. This distinction remains, to this day, publicly unresolved by any conclusive independent investigation, and I refuse to present a hypothesis as an established fact.

Sources

Primary sources

Ukrainian Ministry of Defense — statements on Russian electronic warfare, 2026

Defence UA — analysis of drone incursions in Baltic airspace, 2026

Army Inform — coverage of tensions on NATO's eastern flank, 2026

Secondary sources

Reuters — coverage of drone incidents in Estonia and Latvia, 2026

The Guardian — analysis of Russia's hybrid harassment strategy, 2026

Foreign Policy — geopolitical analysis of NATO's eastern flank, 2026