INVESTIGATION: The Pack Around Moscow — How Beijing, Tehran, Pyongyang, and Minsk Feed the War

Introduction: Anatomy of a Predators' International

Putin Is Never Alone

This war is told as a duel: Russia against Ukraine. That is wrong, or at least terribly incomplete. Behind Vladimir Putin stands a pack — an informal international of authoritarian regimes, each feeding Russia's war machine in its own way. China, Iran, North Korea, Belarus: four names, one shared role as accomplice.

This investigation starts from a simple observation: Russia could not be waging this war alone. It struggles to recruit, its artillery is being pulverized, its refineries burn. If it holds on at all, it is because an ecosystem of foreign support is keeping it upright. Understanding that ecosystem means understanding why this war goes on — and why it reaches far beyond Ukraine's borders.

The Method: Follow the Threads

To untangle this web, you have to follow the threads one by one. The North Korean thread, made of cannon fodder and ammunition. The Iranian thread, made of drones and intelligence. The Chinese thread — the quietest and the most dangerous — made of components and hypocritical neutrality. And the Belarusian thread: a territory transformed into a launching pad. Each thread in isolation seems minor. Woven together, they form the rope holding Russia above the abyss.

This investigation is grounded in corroborated facts: intelligence reports cited by CNN and Ukrinform, analyses from the Institute for the Study of War, statements gathered by the Guardian and the Kyiv Independent. No gratuitous speculation. Just the threads, and where they lead.

The North Korean Thread: Three Waves of Cannon Fodder

Pyongyang Supplies the Men Moscow Can No Longer Find

Let us begin with the most brutal. According to CNN, as relayed by Ukrinform, Russia has benefited from three distinct waves of North Korean soldiers to reinforce its forces. While Russian recruitment collapses — down 20% in the first quarter of 2026 — Pyongyang fills the gaps with its own men.

This is a chilling exchange. Kim Jong-un sends soldiers to die in a war that is not theirs — in exchange for what? Technology, hard currency, legitimacy. North Korean lives traded for strategic advantage. The Pyongyang regime's contempt for its own population finds its most cynical expression here.

Why This Support Changes the Human Equation

The North Korean contribution is not incidental. When an army loses, according to some Western intelligence reports cited by Ukrinform, up to 30,000 to 35,000 personnel per month, and struggles to recruit at home, every foreign contingent becomes vital. North Korean soldiers are not a bonus for Moscow: they are a blood transfusion.

And they reveal a truth Putin would prefer to conceal: Russia can no longer finance its war with its own blood alone. It must import cannon fodder. A great power that has to bring in soldiers from a pariah state at the other end of Asia is not a triumphant great power. It is an empire scraping the planet's last human reserves.

The Iranian Thread: Drones, Intelligence, and the Hidden War

Tehran, Moscow's Flying Arsenal

The Iranian thread is older and better documented. The Shahed drones terrorizing Ukrainian cities are of Iranian origin. But recent reporting reveals a disturbing reciprocity: according to the Kyiv Independent, Russia has directly aided Iran in its confrontation with the United States, providing Tehran with both intelligence and weapons.

The article cites a statement to that effect from the American Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. This aid reportedly allowed Iran to target American military assets in the Middle East. In other words, the Moscow-Tehran axis no longer runs in one direction: it is now an operational alliance with a double trigger, each arming the other against the West.

The Lie of Iranian "Neutrality"

This is where the investigation intersects with diplomacy. At the G7 summit, Donald Trump thanked Putin for his supposed "neutrality" on Iran, saying: "I want to thank Vladimir Putin. He was very neutral." And yet, the Kyiv Independent notes, these claims contradict multiple reports documenting Russian support for Tehran. The White House has consistently downplayed this support.

This gap between the facts and the American president's public statements is one of the most troubling points in this investigation. While intelligence services document Russian aid to Iran, the American president thanks Putin for his "neutrality." The lie is not only in Moscow or Tehran. It reaches the press conferences of the Western world.

The Chinese Thread: Neutrality as a Weapon of War

Beijing, the Accomplice Who Never Fires

The most dangerous thread is also the least visible: China. Beijing supplies neither soldiers nor drones openly. Its contribution is subtler — and therefore more formidable: components, dual-use technologies, economic support keeping the Russian war economy afloat. Complicity through the back door.

The European Union is not fooled. According to Euromaidan Press, the new EU sanctions package announced by Kaja Kallas specifically targets Chinese suppliers of drone components. When Brussels sanctions Chinese companies as part of an anti-Russia package, it is acknowledging that the Chinese thread feeds Moscow's war machine directly.

"Staying Neutral": Hypocrisy as Doctrine

At the G7, Trump also thanked Xi Jinping for remaining "neutral" on Iran. But China's "neutrality" is a strategic fiction. Beijing plays every table simultaneously: it proclaims peace while financing the war, preaches stability while indirectly arming the destabilizers. Chinese neutrality is not abstention. It is disguised support.

This investigation makes it clear: China has understood that it can exhaust the West at minimal cost by letting Russia do the dirty work. A long war in Ukraine means a divided West, emptied Western arsenals, and attention diverted from the Pacific. Beijing doesn't need to fire a single shot. It needs only to keep Moscow afloat and watch the West wear itself out.

The Belarusian Thread: A Territory Transformed Into a Launching Pad

Minsk, the Forward Base of Aggression

The fourth thread is geographic: Belarus. According to the Guardian, reports from May 2026 indicate that Minsk is upgrading its infrastructure to support the Russian military effort — logistics routes, training sites, communication and surveillance systems intended to facilitate drone strikes into Ukraine via Belarusian territory.

This is not new: part of the February 2022 invasion was launched from Belarus, with Alexander Lukashenko's consent. But the concern is escalating. Ukraine is reinforcing its northern defenses — anti-tank ditches, concrete "dragon's teeth," barbed wire — fearing that Belarus is being drawn deeper into the war.

Warning Signs Multiply

The numbers are alarming. Again according to the Guardian, Ukrainian military personnel stationed at the border report a 20% increase in sightings of Russian reconnaissance drones since January 2026, and Ukrainian forces have reportedly intercepted more than 500 drones in the Chernihiv region alone since the start of the year. Residents five kilometers from the border report seeing drones daily.

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba warns: "I'm not suggesting an offensive will start tomorrow. However, I observe a series of different developments that suggest Lukashenko is preparing for war." And earlier in 2026, joint Russian-Belarusian nuclear exercises deepened fears of growing military integration.

When the Pack Reveals Itself in Broad Daylight

The Danger of "Slow Normalization"

The analyst cited by the Guardian, Hannaubak, warns against a subtle trap: "The danger lies not in immediate escalation, but in the slow normalization of Belarus's role in Russia's war effort." As Minsk integrates more deeply into the Russian military campaign, incidents linked to its territory become more frequent and harder to interpret.

This "slow normalization" is precisely the strategy of the entire pack around Moscow. No thunderous declaration of war — just creeping, gradual support that makes the unacceptable seem routine. Each of the four threads — Chinese, Iranian, North Korean, Belarusian — advances in small steps, counting on Western habituation to pass unnoticed.

The Art of Never Crossing the Red Line

This is the perverse genius of the authoritarian international: none of its members ever individually crosses the line that would trigger a direct Western response. China stays "neutral." Iran supplies drones but does not declare itself a belligerent. North Korea sends men but denies it. Belarus lends its soil but does not shoot. Each stays below the threshold, and their combined total far exceeds what any one of them would dare do openly.

Faced with this salami strategy, the West is disarmed by its own logic. Accustomed to responding to clear threshold crossings, it does not know what to do with permanent nibbling. And that is precisely where the pack strikes: in the gray zone, where each isolated act seems too minor to justify a response, but where the accumulated effect eventually changes everything.

Beijing's Cold Calculation: Exhaust Without Fighting

The Ukraine War as Seen from the Forbidden City

To grasp the depth of the threat, you have to think like Beijing. The war in Ukraine, for China, is an almost free strategic windfall. It drains Western arsenals, divides public opinion, diverts American attention from the Indo-Pacific, and weakens Russia to the point of making it an energy and political vassal of China.

By keeping Moscow afloat without ever openly committing, Beijing obtains everything while risking nothing. A Russia that wins too quickly would not serve its interests. A Russia that loses does not either. The Chinese ideal is a long war that bleeds the West and chains Russia. The Chinese thread is not support for Russia: it is an investment in Western exhaustion.

Taiwan, the Other End of the Same Thread

And the investigation leads, inevitably, to Taiwan. According to Al Jazeera, Taiwan's president is hoping for swift US approval of an arms package. Why is this connected? Because Beijing is watching the Western response to Russian aggression in Ukraine as a real-world test of what awaits it if it moves against Taiwan.

If the West abandons Ukraine, Beijing will draw a clear lesson: democracies lack the endurance to defend their allies. And it will apply that lesson in the Taiwan Strait. Ukraine and Taiwan are the two ends of the same Chinese thread. To abandon the former is to condemn the latter. That is why this war is also being fought, paradoxically, in the Pacific.

The West Faces the Pack: Sanctions and Countermoves

EU Sanctions Finally Target the Accomplices

The West is beginning to fight back. The new European Union sanctions package, announced by Kaja Kallas, targets 34 individuals and 47 entities, including Chinese suppliers of drone components, according to Euromaidan Press and Ukrainska Pravda. For the first time, sanctions strike not only Russia, but its accomplices.

This is a decisive doctrinal shift. As long as the West sanctioned only Moscow, it was fighting a symptom. By going after Chinese suppliers, bypass networks, and the entire logistical chain of the pack, it is finally beginning to target the disease. It remains to be seen whether these sanctions are enforced with unwavering rigor.

The Shadow Fleet: Another Thread to Cut

Another countermove: hunting the Russian shadow fleet — the tankers that circumvent sanctions to export the oil financing the war. British forces intercepted a vessel in the English Channel, and the UK seized a tanker. Each blocked ship is a financial thread severed between Russia and the markets that feed it.

Because the pack holds together only through Russian oil money. Cut that tap, and the entire war machine grinds to a halt. Sanctions on components and the hunt for the shadow fleet are the two jaws of the same pincer: one cuts the weapons coming in, the other cuts the money going out. That is how you strangle a predators' international.

Russia's New Bases: The Post-War Threat Already Being Built

The ISW Decodes the Long-Term Strategy

No investigation would be complete without looking beyond Ukraine. According to the Institute for the Study of War, Russia is building new military bases along its northern border with NATO. The ISW assesses that a short-term ground attack remains unlikely — "most of Russia's combat power is participating in operations in Ukraine" — but that these bases are preparing a future power projection against the alliance.

The figures are revealing: former Finnish intelligence officer Marko Eklund estimates approximately 115,000 soldiers ultimately on NATO's northern border, while Finnish Army chief Pasi Välimäki projects 80,000 Russian soldiers on their shared border. A new base at Novaya Vilza, 190 km from Finland, will accommodate 4,000 to 6,000 personnel.

The Post-Ukraine Era Is Already Being Prepared

What the ISW reveals is chilling: Russia is already thinking about what comes after. These bases would reduce the time needed to mass troops on NATO's border once the Ukraine war ends. In other words, Moscow sees Ukraine not as an end, but as a step. The pack is already scouting its next hunting ground.

This is the definitive argument against everyone in the West who dreams of a compromise that would "close" the Ukrainian file. There is no closure. A Russia that exits the Ukraine war without having been decisively contained will turn toward the next prey. The Baltic states, Finland, Poland know this. Ukraine is not the end of Putin's road. It is the beginning.

The Ukrainian Counter-Model: Exporting Resistance

When Ukraine Arms Its Allies

Facing the pack, Ukraine is not merely defending — it is beginning to export its resistance. According to Euromaidan Press, Ukraine will supply Latvia, a NATO member, with attack drones, ground robots, and naval systems. This marks the first time, in this format, that Ukraine becomes a supplier to a NATO member.

Latvian Defense Minister Raivis Melnis said it to Zelensky with striking clarity: "There is only one country in the world that knows how to fight Russia, how to stop Russia." Ukraine's combat experience has become a strategic treasure that allies come to seek out. The knowledge of resistance is spreading.

The Reversal of the Moral Balance of Power

This reversal is profound. On one side, an authoritarian pack that holds together only through lies, military slavery, and shameful complicity. On the other, a Ukraine that — attacked — becomes a center of expertise, courage, and technology that democracies vie for. The contrast is moral as much as military.

While Putin imports North Korean soldiers because his own people no longer want to fight, Ukraine exports its know-how to allies who respect it. That difference says everything. On one side, a system that coerces and buys. On the other, a nation that is admired and studied. The pack has mass. Ukraine has soul. And soul, in the long run, wins.

Diplomacy in the Pack's Shadow

Zelensky Offers, Moscow Refuses

On the diplomatic front, the investigation reveals a new balance of power. According to Euromaidan Press, Zelensky says Russia refused the G7's peace-talks offer, and proposes the United States as a negotiating venue before winter. It is Ukraine that extends its hand toward peace; it is Russia that refuses it. The narrative of the "warmongering Kyiv" collapses against the facts.

This Russian refusal is itself a product of the pack. Why would Putin negotiate as long as Beijing finances him, Pyongyang lends him soldiers, Tehran exchanges weapons, and Minsk lends its territory? The pack's support is precisely what allows Moscow to refuse peace. Cutting the pack's threads also means bringing peace closer.

American Ambiguity: The Fault Line

But the West is not advancing in lockstep. At the G7, Trump presented himself, the Kyiv Independent notes, "more as a neutral party than as unambiguously pro-Ukrainian," distinguishing himself from the rest of the group. A second bilateral meeting expected with Zelensky did not materialize. This American ambiguity is the fault line the pack exploits.

Because the strength of the authoritarian pack is its icy cohesion: China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia never break ranks publicly. Their weakness against the West is that they are fewer and poorer. But if the West divides while the pack stays united, the advantage of numbers and wealth evaporates. Western unity is not an option: it is the condition for victory.

Fuel: The Pack's Hidden Nerve

No Oil, No War

The entire edifice of the pack rests on one foundation: Russian oil money. It pays the soldiers, the $80,000 bonuses, the contracts with Pyongyang, the components bought through China. Cut the oil, and the whole machine seizes up. That is why Ukraine methodically strikes Russian refineries — up to and including Moscow's own.

According to Ukrainska Pravda, Russian refining output has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. Every burning refinery means less hard currency to buy the pack's loyalty. The oil war is not a separate front: it is the attack aimed at the heart of the financial system keeping the entire authoritarian international standing.

The Shadow Fleet: The Transmission Belt

To sell this oil despite sanctions, Russia relies on its shadow fleet — aging tankers, poorly insured, sailing under flags of convenience. This is the transmission belt between Russian crude and the markets that finance it, often in Asia. Without it, the money stops flowing.

Hence the importance of recent interceptions: British forces boarding a vessel in the Channel, seizure of a tanker. Each blocked ship is a financial thread cut. The West is beginning to understand that to weaken the pack, it must target not only the weapons flowing into Russia, but the money flowing out. The shadow fleet is the Achilles heel of the entire system.

Why Western Unity Is the Only Decisive Weapon

A United Pack Against a Divided West

The strength of the authoritarian international rests on a paradox: it is less numerous and less wealthy than the West, but infinitely more disciplined in its cynicism. China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea never tear each other apart publicly over Ukraine. Their glacial cohesion contrasts with Western vacillation — illustrated by American ambiguity at the G7.

And yet the West holds every material trump: wealth, technology, the number of allies. What it lacks is unity of will. As long as it divides — between a Trump who is a "neutral party" and firmer Europeans — it gives the pack the one advantage it cannot obtain on its own: time, and fissures to exploit.

The Example to Follow: Europe Awakening

Fortunately, signals of unity are emerging. European sanctions against Chinese accomplices, British weapons packages, coordination through the Ramstein format, Ukraine becoming a supplier to a NATO member: all signs that part of the West is finally grasping the systemic stakes. Europe, long timid, is waking up.

This awakening must intensify and spread. Because facing a pack that thinks in decades, the West cannot afford to think in electoral cycles. Constancy, firmness, unity: these are the only weapons that will lastingly deter predators. Ukraine holds the military front. It is for the West to hold the front of political will.

Conclusion: Cut the Threads, One by One

The Pack Is Strong Only Through Our Weaknesses

At the end of this investigation, one truth stands: Russia is not waging this war alone. A pack supports it — China through its components and false neutrality, Iran through its drones and arms exchanges, North Korea through its soldiers, Belarus through its territory. Each thread in isolation appears minor. Woven together, they form the rope keeping Putin upright.

But that strength is also a weakness. A rope is cut thread by thread. Sanctioning Chinese suppliers, hunting the shadow fleet, denouncing Iranian support, naming North Korean military slavery for what it is, reinforcing borders against Belarus: each severed thread weakens the whole. The West has the means. What it sometimes lacks is the will and the unity.

The Choice of Our Generation

This war is not Ukraine's affair. It is the affair of the entire free world — the first declared confrontation between a predators' international and the civilization of freedoms. From Ukraine to Taiwan, from the Donbas steppes to the Karelian bases, it is the same fight playing out. And it is our generation that will have to decide whether it wins or loses.

Cutting the pack's threads, supporting Ukraine to victory, remaining united in the face of predators: that is the program. It is demanding, costly, and long. But the alternative — a world where brute force triumphs over law, where Beijing and Moscow redraw borders at their pleasure — is unacceptable. The West must remain the center of the world. And that begins in Ukraine, where the pack showed its face, and where a free nation resists it — for all of us.

Primary Sources

Kyiv Independent — Trump Thanks Putin for Iran "Neutrality," Contradicting G7 Claims of Tone Shift — June 17, 2026

The Guardian — Ukraine Bolsters Northern Defenses Amid Fears Belarus Is Being Drawn Into War — June 18, 2026

Ukrinform — Russia Faces Growing Difficulty Recruiting, Three Waves of North Korean Soldiers (CNN) — June 14, 2026

Secondary Sources

Euromaidan Press — ISW Explains Russia's New Border Bases Facing NATO — June 12, 2026

Euromaidan Press — Kallas Announces New EU Sanctions Targeting Chinese Suppliers — June 15, 2026

Euromaidan Press — Ukraine to Supply NATO Ally Latvia with Attack Drones and Ground Robots — June 13, 2026

Euromaidan Press — Zelensky Says Russia Refused G7 Peace-Talks Offer, Proposes US as Venue — June 17, 2026

Al Jazeera — Taiwan Hopes US Arms Sale Package Can Be Approved Soon, President Says — June 18, 2026