ANALYSIS: The EU Summit of June 18–19 — What Ukraine Obtained and What Remains to Be Won

The Fall of Orbán and the Return of European Unity

The European Council Summit of June 18–19, 2026 is historic for one precise reason: it is the first summit since March 2025 to have adopted common conclusions on Ukraine supported by all 27 EU leaders. This fact alone deserves emphasis. For 15 months, European summits adopted their texts on Ukraine in "extract" mode — with 25 or 26 signatures — because Orbán systematically refused to sign. In April 2026, Orbán was ousted after 16 years in power. And with him, the main Hungarian veto on the EU's common positions on Ukraine disappeared.

European Council President António Costa framed the message of the day with clarity: "Today, all 27 leaders stand together, united and determined to support Ukraine. Our strategy is working. Together, we are turning the tide." This declaration is not empty rhetoric — it is grounded in battlefield data, where Ukraine is holding its lines and striking deep into Russian territory.

The Key Actors Present: Zelensky Facing the 27

President Zelensky met European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Costa before the summit. He then discussed with the 27 leaders for more than an hour and a half — an exchange so extended that it delayed the dinner on China. Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas summarized the EU's position in one sentence: "The EU cannot be a neutral mediator because it is clearly on Kyiv's side." This is welcome political clarity.

The EU stating clearly it is not neutral in a war of aggression. Kallas said the obvious — but the obvious is not always said. In a moment when some voices call for a "balanced mediation" between aggressor and victim, this clarity is a necessary moral compass.

The First "Fundamentals" Cluster: A Concrete Step Forward

In the week before the summit, the first accession cluster — the "fundamentals" cluster — was officially opened for Ukraine and Moldova. This is a formal and concrete step in the accession process. President Zelensky asked at the summit for the opening of the five remaining clusters "in the coming weeks, preferably in the next few weeks" so that all six clusters would be operational.

The conclusions of the European Council indicate that leaders "welcome" the opening of the remaining clusters — encouraging but not binding language. Finland's Prime Minister Petteri Orpo, who actively supports Ukraine, advocated for opening all clusters during the summer. This calendar ambition is not guaranteed, but it indicates a positive dynamic.

Zelensky's Argument on Merit

Zelensky posed the question of merit directly and poignantly: "Ukraine deserves it because it has paid more than any other European country for its right to be free, independent, and European." This moral argument — grounded in the Ukrainian sacrifice since 2022 — is difficult to contradict in the context of available military data. Ukraine has lost between 500,000 and 600,000 soldiers killed or wounded defending values that Europe claims to share.

Ukraine paying with its blood for the right to be European. This formulation by Zelensky stopped me. It is not a slogan — it is a fact. No other EU candidate has ever had to prove its attachment to European values in this way. There is something both terrible and just in this calculation.

A Historic Unanimous Decision on Sanctions

The 27 leaders unanimously agreed to extend economic sanctions against Russia by one year, abandoning the previous practice of renewal every six months. This change in duration is significant: it creates greater predictability for companies and governments applying the sanctions, and it reduces opportunities for negotiation or political pressure around each semi-annual deadline.

The political context of this decision is important: it comes when Ukraine has renewed momentum on the battlefield and Washington is showing new determination to strengthen economic restrictions on Russia. The conjunction of these two factors facilitated unanimity on a one-year extension that some members — notably Orbánist Hungary — had previously blocked or delayed.

The Nuance on Individual Sanctions

The one-year extension does not modify the blacklist of individuals and entities, which remains subject to traditional renewal every six months. This process can lead to the removal of names deemed legally vulnerable — including deceased persons — which is sometimes poorly received. This differentiation between economic sanctions and individual sanctions is a legal and political reality of the EU that the columnist must honestly mention.

Sanctions extended by one year, unanimously. Fifteen months ago, Orbán was blocking every renewal. His fall from power in April 2026 made it possible. This is a reminder that the domestic politics of one country can determine the foreign policy of 27. And that elections have real geopolitical consequences.

Costa and the First Contacts Without Substance

Council President Costa defended the opening of a diplomatic channel with Russia to test whether negotiating conditions exist. He clarified that first contacts with Russia are described as "brief contacts without exchange of substance and without negotiation." This formulation is important: it means the EU is not negotiating, it is exploring whether negotiations are possible. The nuance is real.

Dutch foreign affairs chief Rob Jetten was more direct: there is no clear indication that Putin is genuinely ready for serious negotiations. This realistic assessment contrasts with the diplomatic optimism of some leaders and underlines that opening channels without Russian willingness to negotiate produces nothing useful.

The Principle of "Nothing on Ukraine Without Ukraine"

European Parliament President Roberta Metsola recalled the fundamental principle: "nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine." This principle excludes any peace deal negotiated behind Kyiv's back. It is a red line the EU maintains officially, even as pressure exists to accelerate a diplomatic process without guarantees of equitable outcomes for Ukraine.

Nothing on Ukraine without Ukraine. That phrase should be engraved on every diplomatic door in Brussels. It is the ethical minimum. And I note that even in a moment of diplomatic fatigue, the EU holds this line — officially. Actions will determine whether it is more than a slogan.

"The Foundation of European Security Is the Ukrainian Army"

The most striking formulation of the summit came from Zelensky himself: "There is no army without financing" and "The foundation of European security is the Ukrainian army." This claim is not rhetoric — it is backed by military data. Ukraine is currently absorbing Russia's military pressure, allowing Europe not to confront it directly. This is a calculation Europeans understand intellectually but have not yet translated into sufficient financing.

Zelensky was direct about the consequences: "We must provide long-term security guarantees for Europe, and that means long-term financial guarantees for the Ukrainian army." This link between European security and financing of the Ukrainian army is the central proposition of the Ukrainian president at the summit. It positions Ukraine not as a humanitarian cause, but as a strategic security investment.

A Drone Agreement: Ukraine as Military Supplier

Among the subjects on the summit agenda was a drone agreement with Kyiv, aimed at strengthening European air defense and positioning Ukraine as a military aid supplier for the EU. This role reversal — from aid recipient to capability supplier — illustrates how the war has transformed Ukraine into a regional military power whose drone warfare expertise now exceeds that of many EU member states.

Ukraine as a supplier of military capabilities to Europe. Four years ago, this would have seemed absurd. Today, it is a reality. Ukrainian drones, electronic warfare techniques, swarm doctrines — it is Ukraine that is teaching Europe. And Europe should be humbled by that.

New Hungarian Prime Minister Magyar and His Reservations

New Hungarian Prime Minister Péter Magyar — who replaced Orbán — expressed reservations about rapidly opening all accession clusters after the first one. He advocated for a process "based on merit and performance." This position is less obstructionist than his predecessor's, but it indicates that Hungary will not be an unconditional supporter of the rapid accession trajectory desired by Kyiv.

Slovakia's Robert Fico has also sometimes determined whether a text was adopted with 25 or 26 signatures. Even with the disappearance of the Orbánist veto, resistance subsists in the eastern flank of the EU regarding the pace of Ukrainian integration. This resistance no longer blocks decisions, but it slows the rhythm.

The Consensus of a Turning Point — But Not of Victory

Finnish Prime Minister Orpo spoke of a "turning point" in the war. His Lithuanian counterpart Nausėda said that "Ukraine is prevailing in this war" and that "Europe is entering the next phase of the war." These optimistic formulations reflect the military data — but the history of this war has also shown that turning points can reverse. Analytical caution remains necessary.

Orbán gone. Magyar cautious but not obstructionist. Fico still there, but isolated. The geopolitical Europe of 2026 is different from that of 2024. The internal political map of the EU has shifted in Ukraine's favor. That is not trivial — and it is not guaranteed forever.

A Phrase That Summarizes 15 Months of Vetoes

Zelensky's statement about the new Hungarian context is remarkable in its sobriety: "There is clearly a new opportunity to strengthen relations both within the EU and between the EU and Ukraine." And his line on Orbán: "We survived Orbán." This "we" is heavy with meaning — it refers to Ukraine, but also to the EU in its effort to maintain a coherent policy in the face of one state that blocked everything.

Zelensky specifically thanked Hungary, but also Poland, Romania, and Slovakia for their good-neighbor commitments. This rhetorical appeasement toward sometimes difficult neighbors is an important diplomatic dimension — Ukraine at war must also manage its regional relationships and cannot afford to isolate any of its immediate neighbors.

"We survived Orbán." Zelensky said this phrase with the sobriety of someone who truly knows what surviving means. It is both politically powerful and humanly understated. That is the voice of Ukraine in 2026: no bitterness, no triumph. Cold determination.

A Positive But Incomplete Balance Sheet

The EU Summit of June 18–19, 2026 produced concrete results: unanimity restored among the 27, sanctions extended by one year, first accession cluster opened, commitment to opening the five others, agreement in principle on drones. The Costa strategy summarized in one sentence — advances on accession, reinforced defensive support, increased pressure on Russia — is coherent and well communicated.

The Tempo Is Too Slow for a Ukraine at War

What is missing is speed. Zelensky is asking for all clusters to be opened "in the coming weeks." European accession bureaucracy operates in years. This gap between Ukrainian urgency and European institutional tempo is real and painful. Ukraine fights and dies to be European. Europe tells it that it deserves this — and makes it wait in the corridors.

This summit was good. Not perfect. Not sufficient. But good. And in this war of institutional as much as military attrition, good counts. One step forward is always better than the status quo. Ukraine has learned to nourish itself on these partial victories. It has no choice.

An Optimistic Message Grounded in the Facts

António Costa's formula — "Our strategy is working. Together, we are turning the tide" — summarizes the European institutional vision. On the battlefield, the data partially confirm it: Ukraine strikes at 2,000 km, lines hold in the Donbas, Crimea is under growing pressure. On the economic front, Russia is experiencing fuel restrictions and sanctions pressure. On the diplomatic front, the restored unity of the 27 is real.

But "turning the tide" does not yet mean "winning the war." There remains a path between the current momentum and a just peace that respects Ukrainian sovereignty. This summit consolidated the conditions for walking that path. It did not shorten it on its own.

Europe is turning the tide, says Costa. I want to believe it. The military data say it is possible. But the tide is turned with weapons, financing, and political will — not only with summits. I hope this summit was both at once.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

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