Washington sells its weapons to soothe Europe before Ankara

Introduction: a summit under heavy budgetary tension

Ankara becomes the epicenter of the Western future

On July 7 and 8, 2026, NATO leaders are gathering in Ankara in a climate no one dares call calm. According to the Straits Times, the summit's primary goal is to ease tensions built up with the Trump administration, which has multiplied unilateral decisions that have undermined European allies' confidence in their main military protector since 1949.

This summit arrives at a pivotal moment: Turkey, the Alliance's second-largest army, is looking to expand its defense sales as the entire West rearms against the combined threats of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, as Reuters reports.

The American bet: sell more to reassure more

According to information relayed by Euractiv, major American defense manufacturers are set to jointly announce, in Turkey, a series of collaboration projects with the U.S. government, potentially including the sale of Tomahawk cruise missiles. The goal is clear: soften the political impact of the gradual withdrawal of American military capabilities from the European continent.

It's a double-edged strategy: reassure through arms contracts what you unsettle through troop withdrawals. A delicate equation, but a revealing one about a deep transition underway in the transatlantic relationship.

The Hegseth review, a quiet earthquake

Six months to redraw the European military map

On June 18, 2026, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced, at a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels, a full review of the American military posture in Europe. This assessment, internally nicknamed "NATO 3.0," is expected to last up to six months and will involve direct consultations with the U.S. Congress, according to Reuters.

Hegseth warned that the United States could withhold some of its financial contributions to NATO if allies kept benefiting from the system without investing enough in their own defense, a practice he openly calls "free riding."

Allies named directly for their silence during the Iran crisis

The tone escalated when Hegseth criticized certain allies who refused to grant access to their bases and airspace during the American conflict with Iran, calling that refusal "shameful," according to CNN. He assured that the upcoming review would guarantee clear access rights for American forces going forward.

This public outburst, rare in its bluntness for a diplomatic meeting of this level, shows just how openly the current American administration is now willing to name its frustrations with longtime partners.

The raw numbers behind the announced withdrawal

Fighters, drones and tankers, an inventory that worries

According to military sources cited by Reuters, the United States will cut by a third the number of F-15 and F-16 fighters assigned to NATO, dropping to 99 aircraft. The number of MQ-4 and MQ-9 Reaper drones will be cut in half, to 12 units, while KC-135 refueling tankers will fall from 79 to 63.

Only a single aircraft carrier and a single strategic bomber will now be designated for NATO, down from two previously. Maritime patrol aircraft will drop from 26 to 15, and the number of destroyers will fall from 17 to 9, according to the same sources. A cruise-missile submarine will also be withdrawn from commitments to the Alliance.

Rutte confirms it, but refuses to call it weakening

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte confirmed that this reduction in American capabilities had already taken effect, but insisted it was merely a military planning tool, not an American withdrawal from its commitments. "The question came up yesterday: is this in effect or not? Yes, it is," he said, while noting that the American nuclear guarantee to NATO remained unchanged and strong.

Rutte added that other member countries had already filled much of the gap created by these American reductions in the Alliance's crisis response forces, a sign, in his view, that Europe is finally shouldering a fairer share of the collective burden.

Belgium and others stepping in to fill the gaps

Francken announces a concrete gesture

Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken announced that Belgium would increase its support for NATO's crisis response force to offset part of the American withdrawal. This gesture, modest on a continental scale, illustrates a broader trend: several European capitals are actively trying to demonstrate good faith even before the official opening of the Ankara summit.

American General Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said this month that Washington expects European allies and Canada to quickly increase the number of aircraft and ships they contribute to the Alliance's defense strategies.

Germany and Poland, two symbolic cases

According to Reuters, roughly 5,000 American soldiers will be withdrawn from Germany over the coming year, while in Poland, reports emerged of the cancellation of a rotational deployment of 4,000 American troops, before Trump himself announced in May the deployment of 5,000 additional troops, considerably muddying the strategic picture for the allies involved.

This back-and-forth of contradictory announcements feeds persistent anxiety among European military planners, who struggle to build reliable forecasts about America's medium-term commitment.

Arms contracts, the other face of the transatlantic relationship

Tens of billions of dollars at stake in Ankara

According to remarks made by Mark Rutte before the Atlantic Council in Washington and relayed by Reuters and the Bulgarian agency BTA, the Ankara summit is expected to become the stage for defense contract signings totaling tens of billions of dollars. These announcements are explicitly meant to show that the Alliance remains a robust industrial and military machine, despite internal political tensions.

Turkey, the summit's host, is actively seeking to expand its own defense sales amid this broad rearmament push, according to a separate Reuters report published in early June. The country fields NATO's second-largest army and intends to capitalize on that strategic position.

Kyiv also weighs on the announcements

According to Ukrainska Pravda, NATO members are also expected to pledge billions more dollars in weapons for Ukraine at the Ankara summit, news that, if confirmed, would send a strong signal of continued Western support against Russian aggression, despite the Alliance's internal turbulence.

This Ukrainian dimension of the summit remains crucial: it's a reminder that despite internal budget disputes, the front line remains the absolute strategic priority for all Western members, including an American administration otherwise highly critical of its partners.

Trump's double talk on NATO

Critical on funding, firm on the nuclear guarantee

The Trump administration maintains a paradoxical stance toward NATO: sharply critical on cost-sharing, but publicly firm on the nuclear guarantee. According to Deutsche Welle, Rutte explicitly rejected the idea that the United States is withdrawing from the Alliance, insisting that Washington has clearly reaffirmed its commitment, provided other members shoulder more of the responsibility for European security.

This nuance is essential to understanding the logic of the current administration: this isn't an ideological disengagement from NATO, but a forceful renegotiation of the terms of American involvement, where every capability cut comes with a heightened demand on partners.

The Council on Foreign Relations calls it "accelerating decoupling"

The Council on Foreign Relations has labeled this dynamic an "accelerating decoupling" between the United States and NATO, noting that the Pentagon is using internal frustration to justify a gradual withdrawal of capabilities assigned to the Alliance. This analysis, while critical, acknowledges that the withdrawal remains structured, gradual, and paired with compensating commercial efforts.

It is precisely this duality — partial military withdrawal combined with a defense-sales offensive — that defines the current American strategy toward its European partners.

Europe's position: absorb the shock or adapt

Pistorius and the smile that says a lot

According to a Reuters analysis published on June 26, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius was photographed smiling broadly a few hours after Hegseth accused NATO's European members of benefiting from the system without contributing enough. That image, which went viral in certain diplomatic circles, captures the mix of resignation and defiance that characterizes Europe's reaction to American pressure.

According to reporting from the German daily Die Welt, confirmed by Reuters, the United States had already informed its allies it was cutting the number of fighters allocated to NATO from 150 to 100 aircraft, also withdrawing eight refueling tankers and one full carrier strike group.

The real test: America's command architecture

A commentator cited by Reuters noted that American participation essentially functions as the Alliance's "operating system," linking sensors to shooters and providing the data, communications and planning architecture indispensable to any coordinated military operation. This structural dependency makes any American withdrawal, even a partial one, structurally difficult for Europeans to offset quickly.

That's where the real strategic risk for Europe lies: not the loss of a handful of fighters or ships, but the gradual erosion of the integrated command architecture that has been NATO's strength for decades.

Ankara's heightened security, a symbol of a tense world

A capital turned into a fortress

According to Bloomberg, Turkey has significantly stepped up security in its capital ahead of the summit's opening, turning Ankara into a temporary fortress of sorts. This massive security mobilization reflects not only the usual logistical risks of an international summit of this scale, but also the ambient geopolitical tension surrounding every NATO gathering since the start of the war in Ukraine.

The international press center will be operational starting July 5, with continuous coverage through July 9, according to official information published by NATO. This impressive logistical operation reflects the scale of media attention expected around this event.

A geographic symbol that is far from incidental

The choice of Ankara as host is not neutral. Turkey occupies a pivotal position between Europe, the Middle East and the Black Sea, a position taking on heightened strategic importance as the war in Ukraine continues to reshape the security priorities of the Alliance's eastern flank.

This geographic choice also reinforces the growing diplomatic role Ankara seeks to play between the Western and non-Western blocs, an ambition Turkey has been cultivating for several years already.

Eastern flank allies under heightened watch

Fifteen thousand American troops, the silent front line

According to the Atlantic Council, roughly 15,000 American troops are currently deployed across the eastern flank region, with the highest concentration in Poland, home to about 10,000 troops. More than half of the American reinforcement on this strategic border comes directly from U.S. forces, a reality that makes any potential reduction particularly sensitive for the Baltic states and Poland itself.

In total, roughly 68,000 American troops remain permanently stationed in Europe, a number that had peaked at around 100,000 in 2022 in direct response to Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, before gradually falling back to just over 80,000 today.

Deterrence remains the absolute priority

Despite the reductions announced elsewhere on the continent, the reinforcements deployed on the eastern flank remain largely preserved, a clear signal that neither Washington nor its allies want to send a message of weakness to Moscow at such a critical moment in the Ukrainian conflict.

This priority given to the eastern flank reflects a coherent strategic hierarchy: cut costs where the immediate risk is seen as lower, while firmly maintaining the deterrent posture against the most direct Russian threat.

Turkey, arms seller and diplomatic host

A defense industry booming

According to Reuters, Turkey is actively targeting an increase in its defense sales as the entire West rearms and traditional alliances get redrawn. American demands for NATO members to shoulder a greater share of their own defense responsibilities, combined with plans to withdraw thousands of American troops from Germany, present both commercial opportunities and strategic uncertainties for Ankara.

This ambiguous position — both neutral diplomatic host and ambitious commercial player in the defense sector — places Turkey in a position of growing influence within the Western security architecture, a development worth watching closely in the months ahead.

A complex but indispensable partner

The relationship between Ankara and the rest of NATO remains historically complex, marked by repeated disagreements on several regional strategic files. And yet, its geographic position and the size of its military make it a partner the West simply cannot do without in today's geopolitical context.

This reality demands a cautious but engaged diplomacy toward Ankara, where commercial and security interests are constantly intertwined with sometimes delicate political considerations.

The Iranian precedent looming over the talks

A resentment not yet fully settled

The refusal of some European allies to grant access to their bases and airspace during the American conflict with Iran continues to weigh heavily on the mood of the preparatory talks for the Ankara summit. Hegseth did not hide his frustration, calling that refusal "shameful" behavior in front of all the defense ministers gathered in Brussels.

This American frustration fits within a broader context where Washington believes Western solidarity must extend beyond the European theater alone, including operations against shared threats like Iran, considered by the current administration to be one of the West's principal adversaries alongside China, Russia and North Korea.

A test of solidarity beyond the European theater

This Iranian precedent illustrates a deeper tension: NATO was historically designed for collective European defense, but the current American administration appears to want to implicitly broaden expectations of solidarity to other theaters of operation deemed strategically vital by Washington.

This divergence in vision could well become one of the most lasting friction points between the two shores of the Atlantic, well beyond simple questions of funding or troop withdrawals.

What the summit must achieve to be a success

Five priorities identified by Western experts

According to the Atlantic Council, several conditions must be met for the Ankara summit to be considered a success: clarifying medium-term American commitments, securing concrete financial pledges to Ukraine, strengthening transatlantic defense industrial coordination, reassuring eastern flank countries, and displaying unity despite very real internal tensions.

These priorities reflect an implicit recognition that Western unity, though shaken by months of contradictory statements, remains the only credible response to the combined ambitions of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Trump's ambiguous but necessary role

Despite legitimate criticism of his blunt and sometimes unpredictable method, the Trump administration is, paradoxically, forcing Europe to accelerate a rearmament that many had long considered necessary without ever fully committing to it. This pressure, however diplomatically uncomfortable, is producing concrete results on funding and Western industrial capacity.

It is in this paradox that this administration's most lasting contribution to collective Western security may lie: forcing, through coercion rather than persuasion, a Europe long too comfortable in its military dependence on America.

Western defense industry picks up the pace

Production lines under pressure

The Western rearmament triggered by the war in Ukraine has forced major defense manufacturers to considerably accelerate their production lines. The contracts expected in Ankara fit within this broader dynamic, where every new order helps justify the massive industrial investments already committed on both sides of the Atlantic.

This industrial acceleration directly benefits the United States, which remains the world's leading supplier of advanced military equipment, but it is also fueling the emergence of a more autonomous European industrial base, a goal Brussels has been pursuing since the start of the Ukrainian conflict.

Turkish manufacturers' growing role

Turkey itself has developed an increasingly competitive defense industry, capable of producing drones, armored vehicles and air defense systems exported to several regions of the world. This industrial rise further strengthens Ankara's negotiating position within NATO.

This Turkish industrial momentum, combined with the American and European acceleration, is shaping a more diversified but also more strategically complex Western defense landscape to coordinate.

What Russia is watching from Moscow

A divided Alliance would be an invitation to escalate

It must never be forgotten that every sign of division within NATO is being closely watched from Moscow. Vladimir Putin and his military apparatus are actively looking for signs of Western fragility that could justify further escalation on the Ukrainian front or elsewhere along Europe's eastern flank.

That is precisely why Rutte's reassuring statements about maintaining the American nuclear guarantee and the overall solidity of the Alliance carry strategic weight that far exceeds routine diplomatic messaging.

China is watching too, silently

Beyond Russia, China is also closely following the evolution of Western cohesion, aware that any transatlantic fragmentation could be exploited in its own regional strategic calculations, particularly around Taiwan and the South China Sea.

This global dimension is a reminder that the Ankara summit, even while focused on European questions, is part of a far broader geopolitical competition between the West and its principal authoritarian rivals.

Conclusion: an Alliance reinventing itself under pressure

The true assessment will come after Ankara, not before

The Ankara summit alone will not resolve all the tensions that have built up between Washington and its European partners since the start of 2026. But it marks a pivotal moment where the West will need to show it can turn uncomfortable American pressure into concrete, lasting European rearmament.

The arms contracts announced, the financial commitments to Ukraine, and the expected clarification of the American posture will determine whether this period of transatlantic turbulence ends with a stronger or a more fragmented Alliance.

Unity remains the only option against shared adversaries

Facing Vladimir Putin's Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, Western division remains the only truly dangerous scenario. Internal tensions over cost-sharing, however real and legitimate, must never overshadow the absolute necessity of a united Western response to these combined threats.

In this respect, Ankara will be a revealing test of the Atlantic Alliance's collective maturity in this new era of global rearmament.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I am a pro-Ukraine, pro-NATO columnist, convinced that the West must remain the world's geopolitical center of gravity. On the military and defense file, I consider the Trump administration's firm posture to be broadly positive for collective Western security, even though its methods often remain blunt and sometimes diplomatically counterproductive.

I readily acknowledge that I don't have access to the classified details of NATO's internal military discussions, nor to the true strategic intentions of each capital involved.

What I don't know, and my method

I don't know exactly which contracts will actually be signed in Ankara, nor whether the announced financial commitments to Ukraine will fully materialize. My method relies exclusively on cross-referencing recognized journalistic sources, analyses from specialized institutes, and verifiable official statements, never advancing a figure that isn't corroborated by at least one reliable source.

Sources

Primary sources

NATO — Overview: 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara

Reuters — Hegseth announces review of US troops in Europe, scorns some allies — June 18, 2026

Reuters — Allies filling gaps in NATO crisis forces left by US, Rutte says — June 17, 2026

Secondary sources

Straits Times — NATO leaders to gather in Ankara, aiming to smooth over tensions with Trump — July 3, 2026

Council on Foreign Relations — At the NATO Summit, Europe Faces an Accelerating U.S. Decoupling — June 30, 2026

Reuters — Turkey targets more defence sales as West rearms, alliances shift — June 5, 2026

Ukrainska Pravda — NATO members to pledge billions for weapons for Ukraine at Ankara summit — June 25, 2026

Reuters — The U.S. is not making it simple for European defence to stand on its own feet — June 26, 2026