El-Obeid, the Sudanese city fearing el-Fasher's fate

Introduction: a besieged city amid indifference

A tightening siege

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the Sudanese paramilitary militia led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, have intensified their attacks in recent days against el-Obeid, capital of North Kordofan state. According to Al Jazeera's coverage, roughly 500,000 civilians are now trapped in this strategic city in central Sudan.

I document here what is known about this siege, its origins, and why so many observers fear a repeat of the mass atrocities that followed the fall of el-Fasher.

Why el-Obeid is strategic

Unlike el-Fasher, isolated in western Darfur, el-Obeid sits on a central road and rail corridor linking Khartoum to the rest of the country. Its fall would give the RSF direct access to the heart of Sudan, a major territorial and symbolic gain in this civil war that has raged since April 2023.

It is this pivotal position that explains the paramilitary militia's current determination to seize it before the regular army can consolidate its defenses.

The el-Fasher precedent, an open wound

What happened after the city fell

When the RSF took control of el-Fasher, capital of North Darfur, last October, humanitarian organizations documented massive atrocities against civilians. The Sudanese Doctors Network reported that 20 doctors, including four women, were detained by the militia after the city fell, with their exact fate still unknown to this day.

In total, 25 medical personnel were killed in North Darfur from the outbreak of the conflict on April 15, 2023, until the fall of el-Fasher, according to the same Sudanese medical sources.

A damning UN report

A report published by the UN last February warned of a risk of war crimes in el-Fasher, describing a "wave of intense violence... shocking in its scale and brutality." This document remains one of the strongest pieces of evidence establishing RSF responsibility for the abuses committed against the civilian population.

It is precisely this documented precedent that now fuels the widespread fear in el-Obeid, where residents now know what awaits them should the city fall.

The drone strikes strangling the city

An unequal technological war

The RSF have made massive use of drones to strike civilian infrastructure around el-Obeid, destroying, according to several accounts relayed by Deutsche Welle, water and fuel supply facilities. This strategy aims to break the population's resistance through exhaustion rather than an immediate frontal assault.

The paramilitary militia, which has access to considerable outside funding, holds a technological superiority that the regular Sudanese army struggles to effectively counter in this region.

Shortages of water, food, and fuel

Residents of el-Obeid face growing shortages of essential goods. The lack of fuel is paralyzing hospitals, water pumps, and the few transportation options still functioning, plunging the population into a precariousness reminiscent of the worst hours of the siege of el-Fasher.

These deteriorating living conditions turn every additional day of siege into a direct threat to the very survival of the civilians who remain, unable to flee.

Who are the Rapid Support Forces

A militia born from the repression of Darfur

The Rapid Support Forces trace their roots to the Janjaweed militias, responsible for the mass killings in Darfur in the 2000s. Under Hemedti's leadership, this paramilitary force gradually transformed into a parallel army, directly rivaling the Sudanese armed forces led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan.

This rivalry between two ambitious military leaders degenerated into open civil war in April 2023, plunging Sudan into one of the worst humanitarian crises on the planet today.

Outside support fueling the conflict

Several international reports point to logistical and financial support from abroad benefiting the RSF, allowing them to sustain a war effort despite the scale of the destruction and human losses. This international dimension of the Sudanese conflict complicates any prospect of a quick resolution.

Without firm diplomatic pressure on the external actors involved, Sudan's civil war risks dragging on for a long time yet, at the cost of new besieged cities like el-Obeid.

The international response, timid and late

An emergency meeting at the Human Rights Council

Faced with the worsening situation, several countries — Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom — have called for an emergency meeting of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva, specifically dedicated to the Sudanese crisis and the risk of mass atrocities in el-Obeid.

This diplomatic initiative, while encouraging, comes after months of relative silence from the international community on Sudan's plight, overshadowed by other, more widely covered conflicts.

The risk of being forgotten by the media

Sudan has suffered since the start of this conflict from a glaring deficit of media and diplomatic attention compared to other international crises. This relative invisibility, according to several humanitarian organizations, makes it easier for both sides to continue their abuses without fear of immediate consequences.

How much longer el-Obeid will remain a footnote in international news before concrete action is taken remains, at this stage, an open question.

Civilians caught in the crossfire

Families with no way out

For the residents of el-Obeid, fleeing is no longer a simple option. Surrounding roads are either controlled by the RSF or made dangerous by sporadic fighting between the two sides. Many families thus find themselves trapped in a city where basic infrastructure is progressively collapsing.

This situation tragically echoes what the residents of el-Fasher experienced before its fall, where the absence of secure humanitarian corridors directly contributed to the catastrophic human toll that followed.

Medical staff, a direct target

The fate of medical personnel remains particularly worrying. The detention of 20 doctors in el-Fasher, with no news of their fate months later, illustrates the extreme danger faced by anyone still attempting to treat the wounded in areas controlled or threatened by the RSF.

This reality discourages many health professionals from staying on, further worsening the health crisis already gripping the civilian population of el-Obeid.

The Sudanese army, an uncertain defense

Limited resources against the assault

The Sudanese armed forces, already worn down by more than two years of civil war, struggle to mobilize enough resources to effectively defend el-Obeid against the RSF offensive. Supply lines to the center of the country remain fragile and vulnerable to drone strikes.

This relative military weakness fuels fears of a repeat of the el-Fasher scenario, where government forces' resistance eventually gave way after months of prolonged siege.

A war of attrition with no visible end

Neither the RSF nor the regular army currently appears able to deliver a decisive blow capable of ending the conflict. This military stalemate indefinitely prolongs civilian suffering, with each besieged city becoming a new chapter in this devastating war of attrition.

Sudan is thus sinking into a spiral of violence whose political or military exit remains, to this day, entirely uncertain.

The ignored lessons of Darfur

History repeating itself

Darfur already experienced, in the 2000s, one of the worst mass violence campaigns of the twenty-first century, carried out notably by the Janjaweed militias, direct ancestors of today's RSF. The fact that the same power structures are once again responsible for documented atrocities today should alarm the international community far more.

This historical continuity between yesterday's crimes in Darfur and today's siege of el-Obeid illustrates the persistent failure of the international mechanisms meant to prevent the repetition of such atrocities.

Insufficient prevention mechanisms

Despite the existence of international legal frameworks meant to prevent mass crimes, no binding mechanism was activated in time to prevent the fall of el-Fasher, nor to effectively protect el-Obeid today. This chronic powerlessness calls into question the very credibility of the civilian protection instruments created after Darfur.

Without a deep reform of these mechanisms, Sudan will continue to serve as a tragic testing ground for impunity for war crimes.

The ambiguous role of regional powers

Divergent interests in the region

Several regional powers in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa are closely watching the evolution of the Sudanese conflict, with some suspected of quietly supporting one side or the other for geopolitical and economic reasons, notably tied to control over natural resources and access routes to the Red Sea.

This regional dimension of the conflict makes any international mediation considerably more complex, with each outside actor pursuing its own strategic interests at the expense of lasting peace for Sudan.

The absence of unified mediation

Unlike other international crises where a unified diplomatic coalition managed to emerge, Sudan suffers from a glaring lack of clear diplomatic leadership to carry forward a credible peace process between the regular army and the RSF.

This diplomatic fragmentation leaves the fighting free to continue, with no clear prospect of a lasting ceasefire on the near horizon.

The humanitarian crisis beyond el-Obeid

An entire country in a state of emergency

Beyond the single case of el-Obeid, it is the whole of Sudan that is today going through one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with millions of people displaced within the country or seeking refuge in neighboring nations such as Chad and Egypt.

This continental scale of the crisis far exceeds the capacity of humanitarian organizations on the ground, chronically underfunded to meet needs of this magnitude.

Humanitarian funding, cruelly insufficient

United Nations funding appeals for Sudan remain, year after year, largely underfunded relative to the actual needs identified on the ground. This chronic resource shortage considerably limits the ability of humanitarian agencies to assist besieged populations such as those in el-Obeid.

This persistent underfunding illustrates, once again, the implicit hierarchy the international community seems to establish between crises deemed a priority and those relegated to the background.

What el-Obeid's residents truly fear

Fear of announced atrocities

Testimonies gathered by several international media outlets, including Al Jazeera, describe a population in el-Obeid living in constant terror of a repeat of the el-Fasher scenario. This fear is not irrational: it rests on facts documented and corroborated by several independent organizations.

Every additional day of siege deepens this sense of existential urgency among civilians who know, through direct experience or the testimony of other fallen cities, what awaits them in the event of a local military defeat.

Waiting for an intervention that is slow to come

Despite the request for an emergency meeting at the Human Rights Council, no concrete measure to immediately protect civilians has yet been implemented on the ground in el-Obeid. This diplomatic slowness contrasts cruelly with the vital urgency felt by the besieged population.

Diplomatic time and humanitarian time almost never coincide, and it is this dissonance that costs the most, every day, to the residents trapped there.

Comparison with other forgotten fronts

A parallel with other neglected wars

Sudan is not the only current humanitarian crisis largely under-covered by Western media, more focused on conflicts such as the one pitting Ukraine against Vladimir Putin's Russia, or tensions in the Middle East. This implicit hierarchy of international attention has direct and measurable human consequences.

Without in any way minimizing the gravity of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, it is both possible and necessary to maintain simultaneous attention on other equally urgent crises such as that of Sudan.

The duty of collective memory

Ignoring el-Obeid today would amount to repeating the mistake made with el-Fasher, where insufficient international attention likely contributed to the scale of the atrocities committed after the city fell.

The duty of memory demands that the lessons drawn from el-Fasher finally translate into concrete preventive action in el-Obeid, before it is too late.

The diplomatic options still available

Possible targeted sanctions

Several international law experts are calling for targeted sanctions against RSF leaders and their external financing networks, a measure that could theoretically reduce the militia's operational capacity to continue its offensives against cities like el-Obeid.

To be effective, these sanctions would nonetheless require international coordination that is currently absent, with several powers continuing to maintain economic or diplomatic ties with actors involved in the Sudanese conflict.

The African Union's potential role

The African Union could, in theory, play a more active mediating role in resolving the Sudanese conflict, holding a regional legitimacy that Western powers do not always possess. Its actual influence on the ground nonetheless remains limited against both sides' determination to keep fighting.

Without stronger and coordinated diplomatic engagement, these options will remain largely theoretical in the face of the emergency experienced daily by the residents of el-Obeid.

What Sudan is owed by Western attention

A duty of moral consistency

Forcefully defending Ukraine's right to resist Russian aggression while ignoring the fate of el-Obeid would amount to practicing a selective solidarity incompatible with the universal human rights principles the West claims to defend. The same United Nations, the same protection mechanisms, should apply with the same vigor everywhere.

This consistency is not merely a matter of abstract principle: it directly determines the future credibility of any Western call to defend international law, including against Vladimir Putin's Russia.

A closing window for action

Humanitarian organizations on the ground estimate that the window to avoid a major humanitarian catastrophe in el-Obeid is closing rapidly, as the RSF siege tightens around the city and its 500,000 trapped residents.

Every additional week without concrete diplomatic intervention reduces the options available to effectively protect the civilian population still present in the city.

Conclusion: el-Obeid, a moral test for the world

A city that symbolizes far more than itself

The fate of el-Obeid goes well beyond the strictly Sudanese framework. It questions the international community's real capacity and willingness to prevent an announced mass atrocity, even as the el-Fasher precedent provides all the necessary evidence of what could happen.

Every day that passes without concrete action potentially brings el-Obeid closer to the grim fate already suffered by other Sudanese cities that fell to the RSF.

The urgency to act, now

The emergency meeting requested at the UN Human Rights Council constitutes a necessary first step, but one that is insufficient on its own. Only coordinated diplomatic pressure, accompanied by concrete protection mechanisms on the ground, could truly change the tragic trajectory this city is sinking into.

History will judge harshly those who, having known the documented risks, once again chose to look away.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Method and limits of this report

This text draws on Al Jazeera's coverage of the siege of el-Obeid and on the warnings published by Deutsche Welle regarding the risk of new mass atrocities in Sudan. I have no presence on the ground in el-Obeid and rely exclusively on verifiable public journalistic and humanitarian sources.

Information regarding the exact fate of the doctors detained in el-Fasher remains, to this day, incomplete; I am flagging this explicitly rather than speculating about their current situation.

Acknowledged editorial line

I defend a clear editorial line: the protection of civilians must take precedence over geopolitical calculations, whether in Ukraine against Russia or in Sudan against the RSF. This moral consistency guides my choice to treat this crisis with the same rigor as more widely covered conflicts.

Any documented factual correction will be transparently incorporated into this text.

Sources

Primary sources

Al Jazeera — Can Sudan's Rapid Support Forces take control of el-Obeid, July 1, 2026

Deutsche Welle — Sudan: Warnings mount over the risk of new mass atrocities, 2026

UN News — Report on the risks of war crimes in el-Fasher, February 2026

Secondary sources

Al Jazeera — UN Human Rights Council to hold urgent meeting on Sudan crisis, July 1, 2026

The Guardian International — coverage of the humanitarian crisis in Sudan, 2026

Al Jazeera — full file on the Sudanese conflict, 2026