EXPLAINER: Mishustin withholds the military figure; Kyiv reads US$12 billion for jet drones

Ten kilometers a minute

What the budget does not show

The draft budget the Russian government approved on September 24 shows no amount for the military.

Kyiv supplies the number. US$12 billion in 2027. For jet-powered drones and loitering munitions alone, Volodymyr Zelensky asserted on the evening of September 26.

Those billions are measured in minutes. The Geran-5 flies at up to 600 km/h, according to a Ukrainian military intelligence official interviewed by RFE/RL. Ten kilometers a minute.

The whistle that replaced the buzz

Ten kilometers is a city. A minute is an alert you read. Then keys you look for.

There is the phone vibrating in your palm. There is the staircase, in socks. There is the cold railing under your hand. There is that high-pitched whistle, nothing like the moped buzz of the first Shaheds.

This is not an image. It is a speed.

A speed changes everything. The math for every shelter. For every air defense battery. For every crew watching the sky, machine gun and searchlight in hand.

This piece takes a budget apart. Read it with a single unit: the minute.

One minute, ten kilometers, and the stairs are not done.

Twelve billion, according to Kyiv

The 8:47 p.m. address

The address is dated September 26, 8:47 p.m. It is online on the Ukrainian presidency’s website.

In it, Zelensky talks about military intelligence reports. On Russian weapons production. Jet-powered “Shaheds,” and other advanced technologies.

He says he knows of internal Russian documents. What is planned for next year. The volumes. The funding.

Then the sentence. Twelve billion for jet drones and loitering munitions, for this category of weapons alone.

He adds that Russia is not preparing to end its war. At least not for now, he specifies. Moscow ought to want to spend on something other than death, he says.

A belligerent’s number

I take it for what it is. The claim of a state at war. No page published.

The Institute for the Study of War picks it up on September 27. Attributed. Unconfirmed.

The same evening, Zelensky also asserts that several intelligence services know Moscow wants to carry its war into other countries. One more claim. No attachment.

And yet the number does not arrive alone. It arrives with a September tally. With an interception rate. With a Russian budget that stays silent.

An unverifiable number. A silence you can read.

Twelve billion asserted, not one page shown.

48.8 trillion rubles

The September 24 session

That Thursday in Moscow, Mikhail Mishustin presented the 2027–2029 federal budget. The big numbers. Not all of them.

The budget projects 48.8 trillion rubles in spending in 2027.

The budget projects 43.3 trillion in revenue.

The budget projects a deficit of 2.2% of GDP.

The budget lists defense as the second priority. Together with security and support for soldiers sent to Ukraine.

The budget provides, in its technology section, the necessary funding for unmanned aerial systems. The words are those of Anton Siluanov, the finance minister.

The necessary funding

Necessary to what amount? No figure.

The Finance Ministry published no military figure, bne IntelliNews notes on September 26. The benchmark Urals barrel, meanwhile, is set at $50 from 2027.

Mishustin does put a number on the national projects: about 19 trillion rubles. One more line, with its amount. Not the army’s.

Siluanov calls his draft balanced. It projects a 5.5 trillion ruble deficit.

The number is unverifiable. The silence is not.

A priority named, a price hidden.

Two signatures and a sentence

Mishustin and Siluanov, on the 24th

I stand with those who count in minutes under the Geran-5s. And with the crews who shoot them down.

Against the budget Mishustin and Siluanov had approved on September 24. Because that budget ranks the war among its priorities and refuses to state its price.

It is not a people I am targeting. It is a decision. A date. Two names.

Mishustin recalled the deadline himself. The draft must reach the Duma by October 1.

He recalled the president’s priorities. Strengthening defense is one of them.

Putin’s sentence of September 25

The next day, Vladimir Putin spoke. Ukraine must feel Russia’s retaliatory strikes, the ISW reports.

The institute draws a reading from it. Putin intends to intensify his campaign heading into winter. As in previous winters.

A budget without a number. A sentence without hedging.

The day after that, Kyiv puts a price on both.

Mishustin signs the silence. Putin supplies its meaning.

One tenth in plain sight

At 87.4 rubles to the dollar

Let’s do the math. With Moscow’s own numbers.

Russia’s Economic Development Ministry projects an average dollar at 87.4 rubles in 2027, according to IntelliNews.

At that rate, $12 billion comes to about 1.049 trillion rubles. My calculation. Not Kyiv’s.

Set against 48.8 trillion in planned spending, that would be a little over 2%. For a single category of weapons.

103.3 billion on display

The budget, for its part, shows a national drone program. It is set to reach 103.3 billion rubles a year by the end of the period, according to IntelliNews.

That is not the same thing. I do not conflate them. That program falls under the technology projects. Not under army procurement.

And yet the comparison gives the size of the shadow. If Kyiv is right, the visible line would weigh barely a tenth of the hidden one.

Who in Moscow signed the order?

One tenth in the light. Nine tenths in the dark, if Kyiv is to be believed.

What is on display would fit in a tenth.

2,730 in September

Fifty-five out of a hundred

Zelensky also gives a tally. More than 2,730 jet-powered “Shaheds” launched in September. More than 1,500 shot down or neutralized.

Interception rate: 55%, he says. Against more than 90% for ordinary “Shaheds.”

Out of a hundred propeller drones, more than ninety come down. Out of a hundred jet drones, fifty-five come down. Out of a hundred jet drones, forty-five get through.

That is what speed buys.

The night of the 26th

The subtraction is simple. About 1,200 jet-powered machines were not stopped in September. If Kyiv’s numbers hold.

Night of the 26th to the 27th: the Ukrainian air force counts 170 drones launched, decoys included. Of those, 76 were jet-powered. It shoots down 147, according to the ISW. Drones hit 18 locations.

Zelensky admits it in the same address. A significant share still reaches its target.

A significant share. Not a handful.

The ones that get through do not evaporate. They end up on a roof, a power line, a kitchen where someone was boiling water.

Forty-five out of a hundred, and every one an address.

Three thousand a month

Geran-3, Geran-4, Geran-5

Three jet versions do most of the damage, RFE/RL writes. The Geran-3. The Geran-4. The Geran-5.

The Geran-3 takes the old Shahed and adds a jet engine. Ukrainian defenses have already intercepted it several times.

The Geran-4 flies at about 350 km/h. The Geran-5 goes up to 600. Its range reaches 950 kilometers, according to the Ukrainian military intelligence official.

Nine hundred fifty kilometers. From the Russian border, Kyiv is within range. With a wide margin.

The two latest models have received more extensive upgrades, RFE/RL specifies. Their edge comes down to one word. Speed.

A hundred a day

Russia reportedly produces nearly 3,000 units a month of the two latest models. The source is the Ukrainian military outlet Militarnyi, cited by RFE/RL.

Euromaidan Press adds about 2,800 propeller drones a month. In August, according to the outlet, production of the Geran-4 and Geran-5 already exceeded that of the old Geran-2.

Three thousand a month is a hundred a day. Three thousand a month is four an hour. Three thousand a month is an assembly line with no Sundays.

Ukrainian numbers. They describe an industry. Not a mood.

No assembly line waits for a summit.

A number without a page

What Kyiv has not shown

The most serious argument against this piece is one Moscow could sign. Without changing a comma.

Kyiv has shown no page. Kyiv has named no Russian ministry. Kyiv has not broken down drones versus loitering munitions.

And the same evening, Zelensky says why he is talking about it. To get tougher sanctions. To promote his drone agreements.

A belligerent who is asking for something has an interest in thinking big. That is true. The argument holds up.

What Moscow’s camp says itself

It falls anyway. Not under proof from Kyiv. Under the words of the other camp.

On September 27, an influential pro-Kremlin milblogger called for stepping up the strikes. While resources are plentiful, the ISW reports.

He acknowledges a static front. He judges that expanding the strike arsenal costs less than a second mobilization. He even warns that the campaign’s cost could outrun its effects, if it drags on.

Take the $12 billion out of the file. What remains is the budget without a number. Putin’s sentence. The bet written down by his own supporters.

Remove the number: the bet is still signed.

Prototypes in September

Several effective prototypes

Now for what costs my own camp.

Zelensky speaks of several effective interceptor prototypes. Prototypes. In September of the fifth year of the war.

Crews are using them in combat, he says. Production and components still have to scale up.

On September 27, Kyrylo Budanov, head of the Office of the President, gave a horizon. Mass use could begin within a few months, according to the ISW.

Two workshops in one month

The ISW puts it plainly. It is unclear whether the Ukrainian program will grow in time to disrupt the Russian campaign this winter.

And Moscow is targeting the workshops. The manufacturer Pegasus ARMS suspended production after ballistic strikes on the night of September 23 to 24, according to the ISW. On September 2, its previous workshop had already been hit.

Also on September 27, Serhiy Beskrestnov, a presidential adviser on defense technology, reported that jet-powered “Shaheds” sometimes cut their engines and glide before impact. Tactic or malfunction, nobody knows, the ISW reports.

That is the uncomfortable fact. Ukraine has an answer. Not yet in quantity.

It does not change who signed. It changes the urgency.

A few months is a long time under a jet-filled sky.

The winter bet

A revised theory of victory

The ISW goes further on September 27. Putin would be reassessing his theory of victory.

The old one assumed an endless advance, until Ukraine gave in. Ukraine’s successes in 2026 would have shaken it, according to the institute.

The new bet comes down to a strike campaign. Ballistic missiles and jet drones. To force Ukraine to capitulate this winter.

It rests, the ISW writes, on cheap jet-powered Gerans. Launched en masse. With a relatively high penetration rate. It also counts on the shortage of Patriot interceptors against ballistic missiles.

Spring 2027 as the deadline

The institute judges it likely that Putin is aiming for that capitulation before the spring of 2027. Until then, he would concede nothing on his demands. No real ceasefire negotiation while the bet has not run its course, the ISW writes.

And yet the line Kyiv says it has read covers all of 2027. The bet aims at spring. The budget looks further ahead.

In the week ending September 27: more than 2,200 drones, about 1,650 aerial bombs, 38 missiles, according to Zelensky. Nearly 3,900 weapons in seven days.

A winter. A budget. An assembly line.

If the three hold together, then the $12 billion of 2027…

Every winter becomes a deadline with a price tag.

Eight dead on a Sunday

Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Odesa

On Sunday, September 27, Russian strikes took the lives of eight people in Ukraine. The authorities say so, as cited by AFP.

Three in the Zaporizhzhia region. Three in Sumy, where a children’s center was hit. One in Kyiv, under a drone. One in the Odesa region, after a strike the regional authorities call massive.

In Kyiv, a woman and two 16-year-olds were wounded. Mayor Vitali Klitschko announced it.

The day before, a jet drone had hit an apartment building and a supermarket in Kyiv, according to RFE/RL.

The minute that does not come back

I come back to the minute from the start.

One minute to read the alert. One minute to wake a child. One minute to reach the hallway, away from the windows.

For eight people, that Sunday, there was no next minute.

Nothing.

On the 24th, a budget without a number. On the 27th, eight names we do not know.

Eight lives fit on no budget line.

Eleven agreements, a twelfth

Finland, in New York

We also have to say what is being built.

Ukraine has signed eleven drone agreements, Zelensky says. The eleventh with Finland. In New York, on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, a few days before the address.

A twelfth is in preparation. With a country he describes as powerful. Within a few weeks.

The principle goes beyond selling weapons, he says. Building joint defenses. Sharing the experience of Ukrainian soldiers. Producing together. For the partners, experience and security. For Ukraine, more capacity and more funding.

The Graham law, waiting to be enforced

In Washington, Donald Trump signed the Graham law this month, RFE/RL reports. It gives him broad authority for sanctions and tariffs. Against Russia, its energy and those who help it get around the restrictions.

That is a good move. I name it as such.

Zelensky is now asking Trump to enforce it. Against Russia. Against those who fund its war.

A law that sleeps costs the Kremlin nothing. Enforced, it would hit the till that pays for the Gerans.

Eleven agreements, one law: the response already has its signatures.

October 1 at the Duma

A barely elected Duma

Mishustin wants to move fast. The elections to the new Duma have just ended, he said. The results are not yet certified.

He wants funding from the first days of 2027. No delay.

A Russian citizen reading the public document will find pensions raised by 6.8% on February 1. A minimum wage. Schools. He would not find the price of a Geran-5.

What does it cost Moscow to take one minute off Kyiv’s warning time?

A budget the war outruns

The Russian budget has not been carried out as written in any recent year. IntelliNews recalls it, citing the daily Kommersant.

This year, the deficit will reach at least double the plan. Up to 3% of GDP, according to Siluanov as cited by IntelliNews.

In June, the government raised its own spending ceiling. It can spend beyond the law without going back to the deputies.

The drones cut the other way too. Russia’s year-end inflation forecast has been raised to 6.8%. Mostly because of fuel, after Ukrainian drone strikes on refining, according to the same source.

In other words, the drone line can swell during the year. Without a new vote.

Voted or not, the spending follows the war.

Twelve billion against one minute

Three dates

I confess a weariness. After so many numbers from belligerents, you end up believing nothing. That is exactly what a silent budget is hoping for.

I do not know whether the $12 billion is accurate. I know what is dated.

I also know what Moscow chose to show. Pensions. Schools. A $50 barrel.

On the 24th, a budget that ranks defense among its priorities without stating the price. On the 25th, Putin wanting Ukraine to feel his strikes. On the 27th, eight dead.

The line that falls to us

Moscow reportedly wrote its drone line for 2027 without showing it. Ours is written in public.

In Ottawa’s next budget, where will the line be that buys one more minute for the sky over Kyiv?

One more minute of warning is a Geran-5 intercepted ten kilometers farther out.

It is a staircase you get to the bottom of.

Kyiv’s number can be argued. Mishustin’s silence can be read.

Sources:

Primary Sources:

• President of Ukraine — address on the $12 billion and the interceptors, September 26, 2026
• Government of the Russian Federation — session on the 2027–2029 draft budget, September 24, 2026
• France 24 (AFP) — eight dead and 3,900 aerial weapons in one week, September 27, 2026

Secondary Sources:

• Institute for the Study of War — Russian offensive campaign assessment, September 27, 2026
• RFE/RL — the $12 billion and the jet-powered Gerans, September 27, 2026
• bne IntelliNews — Russia’s 2027 budget with no military figure, September 26, 2026