Has Europe really filled the gaps left by the US at NATO

Introduction: a claim that deserves scrutiny

What the official statement claims

According to a senior NATO official cited by Reuters, European Allies have reportedly filled nearly all of the capability gaps left by the American drawdown in the Atlantic Alliance's defense plans. This claim, if confirmed, would represent a major piece of news for Western defense ahead of the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7 and 8, 2026.

This fact-check aims to precisely verify this claim, by cross-referencing official statements, available figures, and analyses from several economic and defense-focused outlets that have followed this story for months.

Why this verification matters

This subject deserves rigorous scrutiny, because it directly touches on the credibility of Western deterrence against Russia, in a context where every optimistic statement must be checked against the facts to avoid premature overconfidence.

I start from the premise that factual truth serves the Western cause better than unverified optimism, which could mask real vulnerabilities against the Alliance's adversaries.

Claim 1: Europeans have filled almost every gap

What the Supreme Allied Commander says

General Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, told Reuters that within a matter of weeks, European Allies had largely filled the gaps left by American reductions in NATO's force model. He specified that for the few areas where an equivalent capability did not yet exist, alternative solutions with comparable effect were being actively pursued.

This statement, also relayed by the Italian outlet Internazionale based on a Reuters dispatch, is the most direct and authoritative primary source for this claim, coming from the Atlantic Alliance's highest-ranking operational military official.

Verdict: TRUE but incomplete on a major point

This claim is broadly corroborated by the official source itself, but it carries an essential nuance that the general phrasing tends to downplay: one key area remains problematic, according to General Grynkewich himself.

That area is strategic bombers, a field where the United States has announced it will provide only one aircraft instead of the two initially planned in NATO's collective defense plans.

Claim 2: American reductions affect several equipment categories

Precise figures obtained by Reuters

According to military figures obtained by Reuters, the number of F-15 and F-15E fighter jets available for NATO will drop by a third to 99 aircraft, while the number of MQ-4 and MQ-9 Reaper drones will be cut in half, down to just 12 units.

The number of KC-135 and KC-46 refueling aircraft will fall from 79 to 63 aircraft, while the number of maritime patrol aircraft will drop from 26 to 15 units, and the number of available destroyers will fall from 17 to 9, according to the same military source cited by the agency.

Verdict: TRUE, these figures are precisely documented

These precise figures are among the most solid elements of this story, coming directly from a military source with access to the full details of American reductions communicated internally within NATO.

This numerical precision makes it possible to concretely measure the scale of the challenge European Allies had to meet, making the claim that most of this challenge was already overcome in just a few weeks all the more significant.

Claim 3: one missile-carrying submarine remains sacrificed

A strategic capability hard to replace

Still according to Reuters, the sole cruise-missile-carrying submarine previously committed to NATO's collective defense plans has also been withdrawn from American commitments, a strategic capability Europeans structurally struggle to reproduce identically.

This category of capability, highly specialized and costly to develop, illustrates the real limits of Europe's ability to fully fill every type of gap left by the partial American withdrawal, despite the rapid progress seen elsewhere.

Verdict: PARTIALLY TRUE, a limit acknowledged by NATO itself

General Grynkewich himself explicitly acknowledges that certain capabilities, including this type of strategic submarine, cannot be replaced by an identical capability in the short term, which seriously qualifies the claim of an almost complete filling of the gaps.

This nuance, documented by the primary source itself, prevents fully validating the idea of a complete and uniform success of the European compensation strategy.

Claim 4: Europe is buying weapons at a historic pace

An acceleration confirmed by several financial analyses

Several financial analyses, including those relayed by CNBC and the Vontobel platform, confirm an unprecedented acceleration in European military equipment purchases since the announcement of the partial American withdrawal, with a marked rise in orders placed with the continent's defense industries.

This rapid buying dynamic, described by some analysts as a race against the clock, illustrates the genuine political will of European governments to materially fill the identified gaps, beyond official diplomatic statements alone.

Verdict: TRUE, with a caveat on delivery timelines

This acceleration in military orders is real and documented by several independent financial sources, but it should not be confused with the immediate delivery of equipment, which generally takes several years in the defense industry.

There is therefore a significant time lag between the announcement of these massive purchases and the real operational availability of the corresponding capabilities on the ground, a factor often downplayed in official communications.

Claim 5: this announcement will be made official at the Ankara summit

Confirmation expected at the July summit

According to information relayed by Reuters as early as July 1, 2026, NATO plans to officially announce, at the Ankara summit, that its European members have filled nearly all of the gaps left by the United States in collective defense plans.

This official announcement, if confirmed in the anticipated terms, would constitute high-level political validation of the European rearmament efforts undertaken since the initial announcement of the American reduction earlier in the year.

Verdict: AWAITING OFFICIAL CONFIRMATION

At the time this piece was written, this announcement remains anticipated based on internal NATO sources cited on condition of anonymity, and has not yet been formally confirmed by an official public statement from Secretary General Mark Rutte.

This distinction between credible anticipation and definitive official confirmation must be clearly maintained until the Ankara summit has taken place and the final documents have been published.

Claim 6: Rutte was already pointing to this dynamic in June

Earlier statements that confirm the trend

As early as June 17, 2026, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte had already indicated that European Allies had increased their commitments to the Alliance's rapid reaction forces, in direct response to the announced reduction in the American contribution.

This earlier statement, documented by Reuters and the outlet Internazionale, confirms that the European compensation dynamic did not suddenly appear in early July, but is part of a gradual process that began several weeks earlier.

Verdict: TRUE, a consistent trajectory over time

This continuity between the June and July statements strengthens the overall credibility of this fact-check's central claim, showing a logical progression rather than an isolated and potentially opportunistic announcement.

This temporal consistency is one of the most reassuring elements of this story, suggesting a structured effort rather than an improvised, last-minute reaction ahead of the Ankara summit.

Claim 7: this dependence on Washington was deemed unhealthy

An assessment shared by American command itself

As early as June 2026, an American general had publicly described the persistent dependence of European Allies on American military support as "unhealthy," according to remarks reported by Reuters following discussions with NATO military planners.

This statement, made several weeks before the July announcement, shows that the need to reduce this dependence was already identified as a shared priority, on both the American and European sides, well before the Ankara summit.

Verdict: TRUE, an earlier assessment that reinforces the narrative's consistency

This early assessment, documented as of June 3, 2026 by Reuters, confirms that the dynamic of sharing the military burden between Europe and the United States has been part of a structured discussion for several months, not a last-minute improvisation.

This factual continuity further reinforces the overall credibility of the announcement made ahead of the summit, showing a logic of planning rather than an improvised reaction to political pressure.

Conclusion: an overall positive but imperfect record

What this fact-check clearly establishes

After cross-checking several sources, the claim that European Allies have filled nearly all the capability gaps left by the United States appears largely corroborated, with an important caveat regarding strategic bombers and the missile-carrying submarine, two capabilities Europe cannot immediately reproduce identically.

This nuanced record, neither fully triumphant nor excessively pessimistic, faithfully reflects the real complexity of a European rearmament effort launched under urgency, but with concrete results already measurable in just a few months.

Vigilance to maintain until the Ankara summit

Final confirmation of this dynamic will come at the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7 and 8, 2026, where Atlantic Alliance leaders are expected to make this record official before the international press.

Until then, this fact-check confirms an overall encouraging signal for Western deterrence, while calling for continued vigilance regarding the strategic capabilities hardest to reproduce quickly.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I am a pro-NATO, pro-Western rearmament columnist, convinced that collective deterrence remains the best protection against Russia. This acknowledged bias pushed me to scrupulously verify this claim rather than relaying it without scrutiny.

I acknowledge that my sympathy for European military strengthening could make me more inclined to believe this positive announcement than a neutral columnist would, which is why I actively sought out the nuances and caveats documented by the sources themselves.

What I don't know and my method

I don't know with certainty whether the official announcement at the Ankara summit will exactly confirm the terms reported by the anonymous sources cited by Reuters before the event. No honest fact-check can predict an official statement before it is made.

My method relies on cross-referencing several independent journalistic and financial sources, including Reuters, Internazionale, CNBC, and Vontobel, in order to avoid relying on a single source to validate or invalidate this central claim.

Sources

Primary sources

Reuters, Europeans fill almost all gaps left by US in NATO defense plans — July 1, 2026

Internazionale, republishing the Reuters dispatch on gaps filled by European Allies — July 2, 2026

El País, Europe scrambles to fill the gap left by the United States at NATO — June 18, 2026

Secondary sources

Chosun Biz, coverage of the NATO summit and European defense issues — July 3, 2026

CNBC, the acceleration of European rearmament and its effects on defense markets — July 1, 2026

Vontobel, Europe is buying an army faster than it can build one — 2026