OPEN LETTER: $500 million for Ukraine — US Senate, finish the job you started

To the American senators who said yes — and to those who will renegotiate

Senators, you have voted. The Senate Armed Services Committee passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) in committee by a vote of 26 to 1, including an envelope of $500 million under the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI) for fiscal year 2026. That is progress. It is even a meaningful signal, especially compared to the $300 million granted for 2025. But do not declare victory too soon. The battle is not won.

The House of Representatives, in its version of the bill, wrote in $300 million — not $500. The two chambers must negotiate a joint text, and in that type of negotiation, the historical tendency runs toward compression rather than expansion. While lobbyists of every stripe scramble through the corridors of Washington defending their budget lines, Ukrainian soldiers are dying in trenches with inadequate equipment. So allow me to be direct: this open letter is a demand, not a plea.

I do not write open letters often. But when a 26-to-1 vote risks being dismantled by a bipartisan negotiation, you have to name what is at stake. What is at stake is the lives of men and women who are fighting for the same values the US Senate claims to defend.

A drop in the ocean of Ukrainian needs

To be honest: $500 million in annual military aid is significant but not transformative in the context of a war of Ukraine's scale. Russia's annual defense budget for 2026 exceeds $150 billion. Ukraine's needs in ammunition, equipment, air defense systems, and training run into tens of billions every year. USAI at $500 million is a useful contribution — not a complete solution.

What makes this money particularly valuable is its legal framework. USAI is a program that allows the Pentagon to directly fund equipment purchases for Ukraine, including systems produced by industrial partners, without necessarily drawing from existing American stockpiles. The extension of USAI through 2028 included in the Senate bill may be even more important than the dollar amount itself — it provides multi-year visibility that Ukrainian defense industry and their Western partners can use to plan production.

The difference between $300 million and $500 million

The difference between the House's $300 million and the Senate's $500 million is not merely numerical. It is political and symbolic. $300 million is a renewal of the 2025 level — a signal of the status quo. $500 million is a 67% increase — a signal of reinforced commitment at a moment when several European allies are also increasing their support.

For industrial partners contemplating investment in Ukrainian defense production — deals like the one between TAF Industries and PGZ in Poland — American budget visibility is a deciding factor. When Washington signals a reduction, private investors read it too. The $200 million difference has a multiplier effect well beyond its direct value.

$200 million in difference. In the American budget, that is one line among thousands. For Ukraine, it is the difference between adequate and inadequate air defense systems. American budgetary realpolitik has direct human consequences. I hope the negotiators do not forget that.

Potential transfers from existing stocks

Parallel to the USAI negotiations, sources close to the Pentagon have floated the possibility that the Trump administration could approve a transfer of $300 million in equipment drawn from existing stocks — independently of the final NDAA text. This type of transfer, used regularly since the start of the conflict, allows a faster response than new purchases, since it mobilizes equipment already available.

The equipment discussed includes Patriot missile interceptors — which Ukraine desperately needs to protect its cities from Russian strikes — and medium-range offensive weapons. The latter are particularly politically sensitive: they would allow Ukraine to reach targets at distances greater than those currently covered by its domestic systems, extending the reach of its deep strike campaign.

The question of usage restrictions

Since the start of American aid, certain systems have been supplied with usage restrictions prohibiting their use against Russian territory. These restrictions, designed to avoid direct escalation with Russia, have created tensions with Kyiv, which maintains that striking Russian military supply and production sources is an operational necessity. The question will inevitably resurface if medium-range offensive weapons are transferred.

The Ukrainian argument deserves to be taken seriously: if domestically produced Ukrainian drones can strike at 1,200 km without restriction, why would American medium-range weapons — less powerful — be subject to stricter limitations? The consistency of American policy on this point is debatable, and it creates an operational asymmetry that disadvantages Ukraine without a clear strategic benefit for Washington.

Usage restrictions on American weapons are understandable in a risk-management context. But they create an absurdity: Ukraine can strike Orenburg with its domestic drones, but not with certain less powerful American weapons. Someone needs to explain the logic of this asymmetry.

Why the time horizon matters as much as the amount

The extension of the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative through 2028, included in the Senate bill, is a strategic innovation often undervalued in budget analyses. Armament programs — whether purchasing existing systems or funding the development of new equipment — require multi-year visibility to be effective. Industrial contracts, supply chains, training: all of this takes time.

Annual funding, renegotiated each year within the NDAA framework, creates uncertainty that slows industrial investment. If an arms manufacturer knows the program runs through 2028, it can invest in additional production lines, recruit personnel, secure raw materials. If the funding expires in 2026, it hesitates. The extension through 2028 sends a clear signal to the defense market: Ukraine is a long-term customer.

The lesson of chronic undercapitalization

One of the recurring weaknesses in Western support for Ukraine since 2022 has been the gap between political announcements and the real industrial capacity to deliver. Promises of 155mm ammunition, tanks, and Patriot systems were often followed by significant delays because defense industries had not anticipated the necessary volumes. Funding visibility through 2028 is precisely what prevents this chronic undercapitalization.

That is why the USAI extension is perhaps the most important detail in the Senate version of the NDAA. It transforms reactive emergency aid into proactive strategic planning. And in a war of attrition like the one playing out in Ukraine, proactive supply planning is a decisive advantage.

The extension through 2028 is what few commentators highlight. Everyone fights over the $200 million difference, but the time horizon may be more valuable. A defense manufacturer who knows USAI runs to 2028 invests differently. That is industrial strategy as much as foreign policy.

How Ukrainian drones changed the American negotiation

A senior Ukrainian government source, cited by Defense News in June 2026, described how Ukraine's drone capability had influenced discussions with Washington: "Kyiv's drone leverage moved the US. Moscow could be next with this logic." This is not a threat — it is a description of modern negotiation dynamics.

Ukraine has demonstrated that it can strike strategic targets more than 1,000 kilometers deep inside Russian territory with domestically manufactured drones. This capability has created pressure on Moscow that alters its calculations — and it has also reinforced Ukraine's position in discussions with Washington. A country that can strike Orenburg with its own means is a different strategic ally from one entirely dependent on foreign aid for its strikes.

What this means for American aid

Ukraine's demonstration of autonomous capability in deep strikes subtly changes the nature of its request for American aid. Ukraine is no longer simply asking for equipment to survive — it is asking for partnerships to amplify capabilities it has already developed. That is a far stronger negotiating position than that of a state in total dependency.

For American senators who support the aid, this argument is precious: funding Ukraine is an investment in a military partner that generates measurable strategic returns — degradation of Russian military industry, accumulation of drone combat experience that NATO can absorb, and sustained economic pressure on Moscow at a cost far below a direct American military engagement.

Ukraine striking Orenburg with its drones is the best argument in favor of USAI at $500 million. This is not charity — it is an investment in a partner that delivers strategic results. Someone should circulate that memo to every senator before the final vote.

American isolationism in 2026

The 26-to-1 committee vote masks a more complex reality in the American political landscape. A significant minority of the Republican electorate, galvanized by Trump's "America First" rhetoric, opposes or is indifferent to Ukrainian support. This political base translates into pressure on representatives and senators from rural states where the war in Ukraine is perceived as a distant problem unconnected to the daily concerns of Americans.

These pressures have a real effect on the maneuvering room of NDAA negotiators. If the final version lands at $300 million rather than $500 million, it will not be purely for objective budgetary reasons — it will be because the political calculus favors caution. Understanding that is not cynical — it is reading American democracy honestly as it functions in 2026.

Refuting the financial burden argument

The argument that aid to Ukraine represents an unacceptable burden for the American taxpayer deserves to be refuted with figures. The cumulative total of American military aid to Ukraine since 2022 represents approximately 0.5% of the annual federal budget. That is a real cost — but it must be compared to what a victorious Russia would cost in terms of redeployment of American forces in Europe, reinforcement of NATO's flanks, and loss of credibility of American alliances in the Asia-Pacific — where China watches every signal of American failure attentively.

In other words, the $500 million USAI is a strategic insurance policy with an exceptional cost-benefit ratio. Refusing this investment to save an amount representing less than 0.1% of the Pentagon's budget would be a first-order strategic mistake — with consequences felt far beyond Ukraine.

American isolationism concerns me deeply. Not because Americans don't have the right to examine their priorities — they do. But because in a world where China, Russia, and Iran test every signal of weakness, withdrawing from Ukraine does not save America. It exposes it.

Predictability as a condition of military planning

Beyond the precise amount, what Ukraine — and its industrial and military partners — expects from the US Congress is predictability. Ukrainian military planners need to know, on a multi-year basis, which systems will be available, in what quantities, and on what timelines. This predictability is impossible when every budget vote is a major uncertainty.

The predictability of American aid is also a signal to European allies. When Washington sends signals of hesitation on Ukrainian aid, European capitals draw conclusions about the viability of their own commitments. Conversely, an ambitious NDAA — $500 million USAI extended through 2028 — reinforces the cohesion of the entire support coalition.

The final request to the senators

This open letter ends with a simple demand: hold the $500 million in the final NDAA version. Defend the extension through 2028. And insist that the additional stock transfers — Patriots, medium-range offensive weapons — be approved without unjustified delay. Not because Ukraine will be grateful — although it will. But because it is directly in the interest of American security, the credibility of American alliances, and the stability of an international order of which the United States is the primary beneficiary.

You voted 26 to 1 in committee. Finish the job.

I am not American. I have no vote to give Congress. But I can name what I see: a courageous Senate vote at risk of dissolving in a corridor negotiation. And I can ask, publicly, that these $500 million survive the legislative process. That is all this letter claims to do.

The NDAA as a test of American credibility

Every budget vote on aid to Ukraine is also a vote on the credibility of the United States as a guarantor of international security. The final version of the 2026 NDAA will tell the world — and above all China, which monitors every American signal on Taiwan — whether Washington is a reliable ally or a conditional partner. This reading, made in Beijing, in Moscow, in Pyongyang, has real and lasting consequences.

$500 million: a decision that costs little and buys much

In absolute terms, $500 million to defend an international order that the United States spent several decades building is an exceptional deal. It is a tiny fraction of the American defense budget invested in sustained pressure on Russian military capability, without putting a single American soldier at risk. The senators who understand strategy know that this amount is not a gift to Ukraine — it is an investment in American security. Hold to it.

$500 million. 0.1% of the Pentagon's budget. To maintain strategic pressure on Russia, support an increasingly autonomous ally, and signal to China that America does not retreat. This is one of the best strategic returns on investment available to Washington right now.

Hold what was voted

This letter demands no political revolution. It does not demand that American senators change their fundamental positions. It demands only that they uphold what they have already approved in committee: $500 million, an extension through 2028, and a signal of consistency toward a country that fights with courage, with its own means, with a determination that commands respect even among those who did not choose this conflict.

Ukraine deserves consistency, not generosity

I am not asking American senators to be generous. Generosity is a personal virtue, not a foreign policy. I am asking for consistency: consistency between declarations of support for Ukraine and the budgetary acts that make them real. Consistency between recognition of the Russian threat and the resources allocated to address it. Consistency between what was voted in committee and what will be signed into law. That is all. That is not too much to ask.

This letter is written from Montreal, not Washington. But the consequences of this vote cross borders. What the US Senate decides this week will be felt in the Donbas trenches, in Polish armament factories, and in Beijing's strategic calculations. I write because it matters. That is all.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. I claim analytical clarity, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

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