Estonia and Latvia Sound the Alarm on Russian Hybrid War Before Ankara

Introduction: two of Russia's neighbors who refuse to stay quiet

A Baltic cry of alarm on the eve of the summit

Just days before the NATO summit set for July 7 and 8, 2026 in Ankara, Estonia and Latvia have chosen to raise their voices. The two Baltic states are denouncing an intensification of Russian hybrid operations: electronic jamming, drone incursions, cyberattacks and the weaponization of migration along the eastern border of the Atlantic Alliance. A resolution adopted by the Saeima, Latvia's parliament, on June 18, 2026, describes an "unprecedented reality" experienced daily by border regions facing these ongoing Russian attacks.

This resolution is no mere diplomatic exercise. It spells out, in black and white, the instruments used by Moscow: weaponized migration flows, airspace violations, drone-related incidents, electronic warfare, disinformation, cyberattacks and threats against critical infrastructure. A list that outlines the contours of a war that dares not speak its name, but that is already hitting the daily lives of Baltic citizens.

Why now, why so loud

The timing is no accident. By publishing this text ahead of the Ankara summit, Riga and Tallinn want to shape the agenda of NATO's budget discussions. Latvia notes it is already devoting 4.9% of its GDP to defense this year, with national legislation mandating at least 5% by 2027, and is calling on other Alliance members to reach that level as soon as possible.

The Saeima's resolution also stresses that Russia, described as an "aggressor state," remains the chief long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security. That language, far from incidental in a parliamentary text, illustrates the urgency felt by Baltic capitals facing a neighbor that continually tests the limits of Western cohesion.

The catalogue of Russian hybrid provocations

GPS jamming and drone incursions

Electronic jamming, or "spoofing," regularly disrupts air and maritime navigation across the Baltic region. Several incidents documented in May 2026 involved drones suspected of Ukrainian origin but diverted by Russian jamming into NATO airspace, triggering emergency sessions in Tallinn. Estonia's defense forces commander confirmed that an explosive device had struck a power plant, an incident that triggered a national alert.

These cross-border incidents, even when not directly targeting the Baltic states, reveal the fragility of allied airspace against Russian electronic warfare. Latvia also reported drones exploding on its own territory, detected by radar only minutes before impact, a dangerously narrow margin for national air defense to react.

Cyberattacks and disinformation, a silent war

Beyond the physical incidents, cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns are explicitly listed among the hybrid instruments cited by the Saeima. These attacks target critical infrastructure, but also citizens' trust in their democratic institutions, a long-standing strategic goal for the Kremlin in its drive to weaken the internal cohesion of Western societies.

The resolution explicitly calls for a unified, rapid Alliance response to these hybrid attacks, along with better coordination of financial, technological and non-military countermeasures. A clear call to move beyond reactive mode and build a permanent hybrid deterrence doctrine.

The call for a stronger air defense posture

Eastern Sentry, a symbol of heightened vigilance

The Latvian text explicitly calls for stronger technical support for NATO's enhanced vigilance activity, dubbed Eastern Sentry, deployed in Latvia. This initiative aims to reinforce allied presence on the eastern flank and in the Baltic Sea region, an area where hybrid incidents have been multiplying for months.

The resolution also calls for the development of modern integrated air and missile defense systems, including effective counter-drone capabilities. This technical request reflects a concrete worry: without robust detection and interception capabilities, jamming and incursion incidents will keep multiplying without an adequate response.

Drawing on the Ukrainian battlefield experience

Notably, the Saeima's text calls for drawing on Ukrainian battlefield experience to strengthen the Alliance's operational effectiveness, its defense industrial capacity, the resilience of its supply chains and the rapid deployment of technological innovation. Ukraine is no longer just a recipient of Western aid, it is becoming a major source of strategic learning for its own allies.

Latvia notes it has allocated 0.25% of its GDP every year since 2024 to military support for Ukraine, and calls on all Allies to make that figure the annual minimum for assistance. A quantified appeal that contrasts with the more cautious positions of other European capitals.

A test of cohesion for the Atlantic Alliance

The Western fatigue the Kremlin is counting on

By intensifying its hybrid operations precisely ahead of a major NATO summit, Russia is likely testing the strength of allied cohesion at the most sensitive moment: budget decision-making. This is a classic Kremlin strategy, betting on fatigue and division to gradually erode Western unity without ever triggering an open conflict with the Alliance.

The Baltic states, geographically on the front line of this pressure, refuse to let this strategy succeed in silence. Their joint alert is aimed precisely at preventing military spending commitments from remaining mere budget lines with no concrete translation into air defense and counter-drone capabilities.

What the Ankara summit must deliver

For Tallinn and Riga, the value of the Turkish summit will not be measured by its speeches, but by concrete, measurable commitments on defense spending and capability investment. The resolution insists that all Allies must show tangible progress at the summit, or else the credibility of collective deterrence will keep eroding against a patient, methodical adversary.

This demand for concrete results echoes a broader concern shared by many members of the eastern flank: after years of summits marked by dramatic announcements but slow delivery, patience is wearing thin among the capitals most exposed to the Russian threat.

China, Iran and North Korea are watching from the wings

An authoritarian axis learning from every Western hesitation

While the Latvian-Estonian resolution primarily targets Russia, its message reaches far beyond the bilateral framework. Every sign of division or weakness within NATO in the face of Russian hybrid provocations feeds the strategic calculations of other authoritarian regimes, whether China watching the Taiwan file, Iran gauging Western resolve, or North Korea pursuing its own ballistic provocations.

This global dimension explains why the Baltic alert deserves attention that goes well beyond the Baltic region alone. Western cohesion in the face of Russian hybrid war sets a precedent that these regimes are watching closely to fine-tune their own strategy of gradual escalation.

A vigilance that must never waver

The recent history of the Ukrainian conflict has shown just how dearly the West pays for every strategic hesitation against a determined adversary. The Baltic states, having lived under Soviet domination, understand better than anyone the price of strategic naivety toward Moscow, and it is this historical memory that fuels the urgency of their message.

The Ankara summit is an opportunity for the Alliance to prove that this vigilance remains intact, four years after the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and that the lessons of hybrid war have truly been absorbed at the collective level.

Lessons from a methodical escalation

A war of attrition documented for years

Security experts monitoring the Baltic region have for several years noted a methodical escalation of Russian provocations, ranging from simple jamming incidents to armed drone incursions capable of causing material damage. This gradual progression matches a well-known Russian hybrid strategy doctrine: patiently testing Western tolerance thresholds without ever crossing the line that would trigger a collective Article 5 response.

This cold calculation explains why the Baltic alerts insist so strongly on the need for a fast, coordinated response. Every incident handled in isolation, without a systemic Alliance response, reinforces the impression that hybrid war pays off risk-free for its instigator.

The price of silence in the face of escalation

Ignoring or downplaying these provocations would mean repeating the strategic mistakes made before the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, when several warning signs were dismissed by parts of Western Europe still attached to the idea of a lasting peace with Moscow. The Baltic states refuse to relive that scenario, and their insistence should be understood as a lesson already learned at too high a cost elsewhere on the continent.

It is within this historical perspective that the Saeima's resolution takes on its full meaning: it is not demanding a disproportionate reaction, but vigilance proportionate to a real, documented threat.

What Western unity must prove in Ankara

Quantified commitments rather than vague formulas

The Ankara summit is a direct test of NATO's ability to turn concerns raised by its most exposed members into concrete commitments. The Baltic demands are precise: clearly established defense spending thresholds, strengthened counter-drone capabilities, rapid-response mechanisms for cyberattacks, and a guaranteed minimum of military assistance for Ukraine.

This precision contrasts with the vagueness that has sometimes characterized the final communiqués of previous Alliance summits. By formulating quantified, verifiable demands, Estonia and Latvia are setting a standard of accountability the other capitals will not be able to easily ignore.

A collective responsibility against a common adversary

At its core, the Baltic message is simple: the security of the Alliance's eastern border cannot be separated from the security of all its members. This principle, stated explicitly in the Saeima's resolution, is a reminder that Article 5 solidarity cannot be limited to classic invasion scenarios; it must also cover the response to hybrid attacks that, taken together, produce equally destabilizing effects.

It is this broader vision of collective security that the Ankara summit must, according to Tallinn and Riga, translate into concrete decisions rather than mere statements of intent.

The precedent of stray Ukrainian drones on allied territory

When Russia's war spills, despite itself, onto NATO territory

The March 2026 incidents, in which Ukrainian drones targeting Russian oil infrastructure were diverted by Kremlin electronic jamming into Estonian and Latvian airspace, illustrate an often-overlooked dimension of this hybrid war: its spillover effects onto Alliance territory. The director general of Estonia's Internal Security Service confirmed the drone was indeed of Ukrainian origin, with no hostile intent toward Tallinn ever established.

This kind of incident, though unintentional on Kyiv's part, shows just how much Russian electronic warfare complicates the distinction between direct threat and collateral damage. An Estonian defense forces commander explained, with reasonable confidence, that it was not a reconnaissance drone but rather one loaded with explosives.

A Baltic resilience forged by history

The insistence of Estonia and Latvia on the Russian hybrid threat does not come out of nowhere. These two nations, having lived for decades under Soviet domination, carry a sharp collective memory of the pressure and destabilization methods used by Moscow. This historical experience feeds a particularly clear-eyed reading of Russian intentions, often ahead of the analysis produced in other Western capitals farther from the border.

This historical vigilance also explains why both countries invest so much of their budgetary resources in defense, even though their limited economic size might justify a more modest posture. The opposite choice, that of maximum preparedness, reflects a deep conviction: security is not something you negotiate after the fact.

Conclusion: an alert that deserves to be heard in Ankara

Words that must become actions

The joint alert from Estonia and Latvia ahead of the Ankara summit illustrates a reality the West can no longer ignore: Russian hybrid war is not theoretical, it is already shaping the daily lives of populations along the Alliance's border. GPS jamming, cyberattacks, drones and disinformation form an arsenal Moscow deploys relentlessly, testing every crack in Western cohesion.

Western credibility is also at stake on this front

Responding effectively to this hybrid pressure, with concrete air defense capabilities and stronger coordination among Allies, is a credibility test just as important as direct military support for Ukraine. Ignoring this Baltic warning would mean leaving the field open to a war of attrition whose effects, over time, would threaten the entire European security architecture.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

My acknowledged biases

I sign this piece as an engaged columnist, not a neutral journalist. I firmly support Ukrainian resistance, I regard Volodymyr Zelensky as a figure of political courage, and I believe the West must remain the strategic center of gravity of the free world against the axis formed by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

What I don't know

I do not claim to know the details of internal discussions at the Ankara summit, nor the precise outcome of NATO's budget negotiations. This analysis relies exclusively on verifiable, dated sources, with no invention or fabricated testimony.

Sources

Primary sources

Latvia's Saeima — Resolution on the NATO Summit in Ankara, June 18, 2026

Euronews — Baltic drone incursions test EU security, June 1, 2026

Ministry of Defence of Ukraine — official page

Secondary sources

Defense News — Ukrainian drones hit all three Baltic States, March 27, 2026

The Guardian International — international edition

Foreign Policy — NATO and European security coverage