Erdogan, the tightrope walker keeping both NATO and the Kremlin close

Introduction: a host playing both sides of the table

Ankara, capital of a deliberate balancing act

By hosting the NATO summit in Ankara this week, Recep Tayyip Erdogan confirms a unique position within the Atlantic Alliance: that of a full member-state leader who simultaneously maintains close economic and diplomatic ties with Moscow. The Turkish president is set to host Volodymyr Zelensky for an official dinner while also holding bilateral talks with Donald Trump, a diplomatic balancing act rarely seen on this scale.

This dual role is nothing new, but it takes on particular resonance as transatlantic tensions grow, between the war waged by the United States against Iran without consulting allies and Trump's repeated criticism of European funding for NATO.

A summit marked by uncertainty

According to Reuters, several European officials hope the good personal relationships that both Erdogan and Secretary General Mark Rutte maintain with Trump will help defuse the tensions expected during this summit, though none can guarantee a smooth outcome.

This surrounding uncertainty illustrates the particular role Erdogan now plays within NATO: no longer just one ally among others, but an informal mediator whose conciliatory skill could shape the overall atmosphere of the talks ahead.

Geography that dictates an ambiguous diplomacy

Strategic control of the straits

Turkey's geographic position, controlling access to the Bosphorus and Dardanelles straits linking the Black Sea to the Mediterranean, gives Ankara considerable strategic leverage over Russian and Western naval movements in this critical region of the Ukrainian conflict. This geographic card, more than any ideological consideration, explains Erdogan's calculated caution toward Moscow.

Under the Montreux Convention, Turkey holds the power to restrict the passage of warships through these straits during wartime, a tool Ankara has indeed used to limit certain Russian naval movements since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

An economic partner that is hard to sanction

Trade between Turkey and Russia remains substantial, notably in the energy and tourism sectors, which puts Erdogan in a delicate position facing Western calls for stricter economic isolation of Moscow. This mutual dependence structurally limits Turkish diplomatic room to maneuver, whatever pressure its NATO partners apply.

This economic reality explains why Ankara has consistently refused to join the Western sanctions regime against Russia, while continuing to supply Ukraine with significant military equipment, notably combat drones recognized for their effectiveness on the front.

Dual military support, an acknowledged contradiction

Bayraktar drones that shaped the war

Paradoxically, Turkey remains one of Ukraine's most important military suppliers since the conflict began, notably through its Bayraktar TB2 combat drones, which played a documented role in the early phases of Ukrainian resistance against the Russian invasion. This direct military contribution contrasts sharply with Turkey's refusal to economically sanction Moscow.

This apparent contradiction between military support for Kyiv and maintaining normalized economic relations with Moscow is precisely the hallmark of Erdoganian diplomacy: an ability to compartmentalize international relationships along distinct logics, without ever locking itself into a single exclusive camp.

A recognized but limited mediator role

Ankara has also hosted several rounds of negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian representatives since the war began, a mediator function Turkey claims with a certain diplomatic pride, even though these negotiations have so far produced no lasting peace agreement.

This mediator role, while it has not yet borne diplomatic fruit, nonetheless gives Erdogan international visibility and a particular status within NATO, that of the only member able to keep an open communication channel with Moscow under all circumstances.

Erdogan facing Trump, a hall of mirrors

Two political styles that mirror each other

The personal relationship between Erdogan and Trump rests on a form of mutual recognition between two leaders with similar political styles, marked by assertive nationalism and a shared distrust of traditional multilateral institutions. This personal closeness could prove valuable in defusing tensions expected during the Ankara summit.

Several European diplomats cited by Reuters are explicitly counting on this relationship to prevent Trump's repeated criticism of European funding for NATO from escalating into an open crisis during the summit's official discussions.

A credibility test for the Turkish presidency

This role of informal facilitator between Washington and its European allies represents both an opportunity and a risk for Erdogan: succeeding at this mediation would considerably strengthen his international standing, while failure would expose the real limits of his personal influence over a notoriously unpredictable American president.

This personal dimension of international diplomacy, where relationships between leaders sometimes matter as much as the official positions of states, illustrates a reality of contemporary foreign policy that Erdogan has mastered with considerable skill over the years.

The dinner with Zelensky, a symbol of measured support

A hospitality that doesn't tell the whole story

The official dinner Erdogan is set to host for Volodymyr Zelensky on the summit's sidelines is a significant diplomatic gesture, reaffirming Turkish recognition of the Ukrainian government's legitimacy against Russian aggression. This gesture continues Turkey's ongoing support for Ukraine's territorial integrity, a position Ankara has held consistently since 2022.

This diplomatic hospitality should not, however, mask the real limits of Turkish commitment: Turkey continues to refuse any participation in the Western sanctions regime, a reservation that clearly distinguishes its support from that of other NATO allies more economically committed against Moscow.

Kyiv, aware of this ally's limits

Ukrainian officials, accustomed to distinguishing rhetorical support from concrete commitments, maintain a pragmatic relationship with Ankara, valuing Turkish military deliveries while staying clear-eyed about the impossibility of getting Turkey to fully align with the hardest Western line against Moscow.

This pragmatic relationship, built on acknowledged mutual compromise, illustrates well the complexity of Western alliances facing Russia: not all NATO members share the same intensity of commitment, and Kyiv must work with this reality to maximize whatever support is available, even if partial.

The internal NATO tensions Ankara must manage

An ally who divides as much as he unites

Turkey's ambiguous position has, over the years, generated recurring tensions with other NATO members, notably regarding its purchases of Russian military equipment or economic relations some more uncompromising partners, such as the Baltic or Nordic states, consider too permissive toward Moscow.

These internal tensions have, however, never led to a fundamental challenge to Turkey's membership in the Atlantic Alliance, as Turkey's strategic position and military power remain too valuable for its Western partners to seriously consider marginalizing Ankara.

A role that could become even more decisive

As transatlantic tensions grow under the Trump presidency, the balancing role Erdogan plays could become even more central in the months ahead, notably if the United States continues reducing its direct military commitment in Europe while demanding more from its European allies.

This growing centrality of Ankara within NATO raises a fundamental question Western capitals will sooner or later have to settle: can an ally who refuses sanctions against Russia while fully benefiting from the Atlantic Alliance's collective guarantees keep being tolerated indefinitely?

What the Ankara summit reveals about Turkey's game

A symbolic venue chosen with care

Choosing Ankara as host city for this NATO summit is no coincidence: it lets Erdogan stage, on his own soil, his indispensable balancing role between Washington, Brussels, and, indirectly, Moscow. This geographic symbolism strengthens Turkey's diplomatic position at a pivotal moment in transatlantic relations.

Hosting both Zelensky and Trump on Turkish soil at once, amid sharp tensions between Western allies, is a show of diplomatic strength Erdogan will surely exploit politically, both domestically and internationally.

A strategy that could serve peace as easily as delay it

Erdogan's bet remains risky: by cultivating a position of indispensability with every actor in the conflict, he could indeed help facilitate, one day, a negotiated resolution to the war in Ukraine. But that same strategy of permanent balancing could just as easily delay the difficult decisions the situation demands, by sustaining the illusion of a neutrality that primarily benefits Turkey itself.

It is this fundamental ambivalence, between useful mediation and calculated national interest, that defines Turkey's role in this war and will likely continue shaping Ankara's diplomacy for as long as the Ukrainian conflict remains unresolved.

The energy card, another lever of Turkish pressure

Russian gas, a persistent dependence

Turkey remains a significant importer of Russian natural gas, notably via the TurkStream pipeline, an infrastructure that supplies a substantial share of Turkish energy needs and serves as an additional argument for Ankara's refusal to join Western sanctions against Moscow.

This energy dependence, combined with economic interests tied to tourism and Turkish agricultural exports to Russia, creates a network of interdependencies that neither Brussels nor Washington appear able to break in the short term, despite repeated diplomatic pressure on Erdogan.

An energy balance that is hard to break

Western attempts to persuade Turkey to further diversify its energy supply sources run into long-term contractual realities and the absence of immediately available alternatives at comparable costs, which keeps Ankara in a position of structural dependence on Moscow for years to come.

This energy reality further reinforces the logic of permanent balance Erdogan has embraced for years, a logic that will likely continue shaping Turkish foreign policy well beyond the duration of the current Ukrainian conflict alone.

Conclusion: the tightrope walker who won't fall

A role tailor-made for Erdogan

The Ankara summit confirms, once again, the singular position Recep Tayyip Erdogan occupies within NATO: that of an ally whose loyalty to the Atlantic Alliance never translates into a complete break with Moscow. This calculated ambiguity, far from being a diplomatic accident, has been the very core of his foreign policy strategy for years.

A balance that cannot last forever

It remains to be seen how long this balance can hold, as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year and Western pressure for clearer alignment against Russia will likely keep intensifying in the months and years ahead.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my declared biases

I sign this piece as an engaged columnist, not as a neutral observer. I believe the West must remain the strategic center of gravity of the free world and that Russia poses a direct threat to European security. On Erdogan, I take a critical view of his persistent ambiguity, while acknowledging Turkey's real military contribution to Ukrainian defense.

What I don't know, and my method

I do not claim to know the exact content of bilateral talks between Erdogan and Trump in Ankara, nor the precise outcome of the summit at the time of this publication. This analysis relies exclusively on verifiable journalistic sources and official statements, with no invention and no speculation presented as established fact.

Sources

Primary sources

Ministry of Defence of Ukraine — official communications, July 2026

Reuters — NATO leaders gather in Ankara aiming to smooth over tensions with Trump, July 3, 2026

Armyinform — official Ukrainian communications, July 2026

Secondary sources

Foreign Policy — analysis of Turkish foreign policy, 2026

The Guardian International — coverage of the NATO summit, 2026

Anadolu Agency — infographic on Turkey's position within NATO, 2026