INVESTIGATION: Musk-Trump, the explosive break that shook American power

INVESTIGATION: Musk-Trump, the explosive break that shook American power

Introduction: Washington's most spectacular alliance turns sour

The deal of the century that nearly changed everything

November 2024. Elon Musk invests $277 million in Donald Trump's campaign — a record contribution, the largest ever made by a private donor in an American election. In exchange for unprecedented access to power, Musk becomes the executive director of the Department of Government Efficiency — DOGE. An informal entity, deeply controversial, but equipped with real access to federal systems. Trump presents Musk as the symbol of his "anti-establishment" administration. Musk presents himself as the savior of American efficiency. The two men shake hands on camera. The world watches, stunned.

Then comes May 28, 2025. Musk posts on X — his own platform — to announce he is leaving the Trump administration. One hundred and thirty days into the job. Just days after publicly attacking the president's flagship legislation, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which he called a "disappointment" before labeling it a "repugnant monstrosity" and a "disgusting abomination." The most spectacular alliance in modern American politics just collapsed — live, on social media, in front of billions of viewers.

Why this story matters

This break is not a simple disagreement between two strong personalities. It is the head-on collision of two incompatible visions of power — and a lesson in what happens when the world's richest man and the President of the United States both believe they answer to no one. This story has ripple effects on Tesla, SpaceX, American space policy, electric vehicle tax credits, and the dynamics of Trumpist politics. It deserves a full investigation.

DOGE: one hundred and thirty days of calculated chaos

A mandate without precedent in federal history

The Department of Government Efficiency is not a real department in the constitutional sense. It is an informal entity created by Trump via executive order, without Senate confirmation, without a budget voted by Congress. Musk operates within it as a "special government employee" — a legal status limited to 130 days of service per year. That status let him move fast, free from the usual constraints of federal bureaucracy.

During his 130 days, DOGE fired thousands of federal employees, shut down entire agencies, and terminated contracts — often without prior legal verification. Court proceedings were launched across the country. A federal judge even questioned in May 2025 the constitutionality of Musk's initial appointment. DOGE's "receipts wall" claimed $175 billion in savings — but the Treasury's Bureau of Fiscal Service was simultaneously documenting an increase in spending compared to the prior year. The numbers didn't hold.

The promise of $2 trillion scaled back to $150 billion

At DOGE's launch, the stated objective was $2 trillion in savings. By April 2025, during a Tesla shareholders' call, Musk had reduced the ambition to "$150 billion," announcing he would gradually step back. The gap between promise and reality — $2 trillion versus $150 billion — illustrates the disconnect between the political marketing of Trump and Musk and the constraints of governing. 93 percent of the stated objective never existed.

The One Big Beautiful Bill: the bone of contention

What this law actually contains

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act is a fiscal and budgetary package running over one thousand pages. It makes the 2017 tax cuts permanent, increases spending on border security and defense, imposes work requirements for Medicaid, and eliminates tax credits for electric vehicles. The White House presented it as the backbone of the Trumpist economic vision. The House passed it on May 22, 2025, by 215 votes to 214 — a one-vote majority, with two Republicans voting against.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) — Congress's nonpartisan fiscal analysis body — calculated that the bill would increase the national debt by $3.8 trillion over ten years. It would cut Medicaid by $698 billion and the SNAP (food assistance) program by $267 billion — directly hitting the most vulnerable Americans. It was these figures that triggered Musk's fury: a law supposedly designed to reduce federal spending would in fact blow up the deficit.

The public break: Musk on X, Trump on Truth Social

On May 28, 2025, Musk announces his resignation from DOGE on X. The next day, he gives an interview to CBS Sunday Morning where he says he was "disappointed" by the bill. "A bill can be big or beautiful. I'm not sure it can be both." These are his first public blows against Trump. Then, on June 3, 2025, he escalates further: "I'm sorry, but I can no longer tolerate this. This gigantic, outrageous congressional bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who supported it." On X, he explicitly asks his followers to "KILL THE BILL."

Trump's response: subsidies as a weapon

"Close up shop and go back to South Africa"

Trump did not wait. From Truth Social and in exchanges with journalists, the president fired back. The sharpest threat came on July 1, 2025: "Elon may receive more government subsidies than anyone in history. Without those, he would probably have to close up shop and go back home to South Africa." The reference to South Africa — Musk's birth country — was deliberately humiliating. It was Trump saying: without me, you're nothing. Without American money, you go back where you came from.

Trump also proposed turning DOGE on Musk's own interests: "The easiest way to save billions in our budget would be to end Elon's subsidies and contracts." He was suggesting that SpaceX's contracts with NASA and the Pentagon be subjected to DOGE scrutiny. Tesla, SpaceX, xAI — all of Musk's companies that benefit from federal funding or tax credits were suddenly in the crosshairs.

Musk's counterstrike: SpaceX begins retiring Dragon

Musk did not capitulate. On X, he announced that SpaceX would begin retiring its Dragon spacecraft — the vehicle that carries American astronauts to the International Space Station — "in light of the president's statement about canceling my government contracts." It was a nuclear threat in the most literal sense of the American space program: if Trump cuts SpaceX contracts, the United States loses access to the International Space Station. Neither Boeing nor Starliner can replace it in the short term. The dependency was total — and Musk had just made it visible.

The real debate: why did Musk actually oppose the bill?

The principled argument: the national debt

Musk's official justification is ideological: the One Big Beautiful Bill increases the deficit instead of reducing it, which sabotages the very goal of DOGE. "Political allies who campaigned on cutting spending but voted for this bill should hang their heads in shame," he wrote. He called on the Senate to "KILL THE BILL" and said Republican senators who supported it "will lose their next elections — it's the last thing I'll do on this Earth."

The argument holds on the merits: the CBO confirms the law increases debt by $3.8 trillion. If DOGE saves $150 billion and the bill spends $3.8 trillion, the net result is a colossal deficit. Musk was arithmetically correct. But in politics, being right and having power are two different things.

The hidden argument: electric vehicle credits

His opponents — including Republican Speaker Mike Johnson — raised a more cynical interpretation: Musk opposed the bill because it eliminated the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit. Tesla directly benefited from that credit, which made its cars more affordable and boosted sales. The elimination of the credit was "incredibly destructive," in his own words from June 29, 2025. Musk denied it was his primary motive — but Tesla itself admitted during its July 2025 shareholders' call that the elimination of the credit affected its American sales.

Tesla's stock: $150 billion in market value destroyed

The financial shock of the feud

When Trump publicly threatened to cut Musk's subsidies and contracts, Tesla lost $150 billion in market capitalization within a matter of days. It was one of the fastest destructions of value in American market history for a single company. Investors took the threat seriously — because federal contracts and tax credits represented a significant share of Tesla's business model, at least for US sales.

SpaceX, which is not publicly traded, did not suffer an equivalent market punishment — but its contracts with NASA, the Pentagon and the NRO represent billions of dollars per year. The mere threat of review was enough to send shock waves through Silicon Valley, defense circles and global financial markets.

The collateral damage: federal workers as DOGE's real victims

While two billionaires clashed on social media, the real victims of this ego battle were not making headlines. Tens of thousands of federal employees had been fired by DOGE — often illegally, as multiple courts established. Critical programs had been cut. Food safety agencies had seen their staff slashed. Health inspectors, social workers, veterans' specialists — all fired in a race for efficiency that never delivered its promised trillions in savings.

The threat of an "American Party": Musk as a third force?

The Senate escalation: 51-49 vote

On July 1, 2025, as the Senate debated the Senate version of the One Big Beautiful Bill, Musk escalated further. He announced he was considering creating a new American political party to challenge those who voted for the bill. On X, he warned Republican senators they would lose their primaries. He called the Senate version of the bill "totally insane and destructive." Despite his opposition, the Senate advanced the bill by 51 votes to 49, with Vice President JD Vance casting the tiebreaking vote in favor.

The threat of an "American Party" remained just that — a threat. Musk did not follow through — at least not immediately. He had withheld the final $100 million of his promised financial commitment to Trump, but he did not redirect it to a rival party. The structural dynamics of American two-party politics make building a third force extraordinarily difficult, even with Elon Musk's resources.

The reconciliation: dinner at Mar-a-Lago

Open war cannot last indefinitely. By early 2026, reports began circulating of a gradual reconciliation between the two men. A dinner at Mar-a-Lago, Trump's Florida residence, reportedly helped ease the tension. The details of this meeting were never made public. But the mutual public attacks ceased. Musk continued to criticize certain policies — he called the "subsidies" mentioned by Trump fictitious in July 2025, saying they "simply don't exist." But the tone became less personal.

The DOGE balance sheet: myth and reality

What DOGE actually accomplished

In December 2025, Musk gave an interview on Katie Miller's podcast where he called the DOGE experience "somewhat successful." He admitted he would not do it again if he had the choice. The $175 billion in savings claimed on DOGE's "receipts wall" were never independently verified — a BBC analysis concluded these figures lacked "sufficient evidence." The Treasury's Bureau of Fiscal Service documented an increase in spending compared to the prior year despite DOGE's cuts.

What is certain: federal agencies were reduced, some contracts were cancelled, some administrative processes were accelerated. But the promise of $2 trillion in savings — reduced to $150 billion — reduced to $175 billion unverified — evaporated. What DOGE mostly accomplished, according to its critics, was targeting the oversight and regulatory bodies that oversee Musk's companies — the CFPB, the NHTSA — while leaving large spending programs essentially intact.

Documented conflicts of interest

The watchdog organization Public Citizen published a report finding that 70 percent of the agencies Musk targeted for significant cuts were actively investigating him or his companies. The NHTSA — investigating Tesla. The CFPB — regulating financial activities. The FCC — managing Starlink licenses. The coincidence was too systematic to ignore. Musk ran an agency charged with cutting government programs while specifically targeting the regulators who oversaw him. Even his defenders struggled to justify that geography of cuts.

Social consequences: Medicaid and SNAP

The real victims: the most vulnerable

Beyond the billionaires' duel, the One Big Beautiful Bill — which Musk fought for the wrong reasons according to his critics, or the right reasons according to his defenders — has real consequences for millions of Americans. The CBO estimated the law would cut Medicaid by $698 billion and the SNAP food assistance program by $267 billion. These cuts directly affect the elderly poor, children, low-income workers, and people with disabilities.

The law was signed by Trump and came into effect. Its consequences are unfolding gradually. American states have begun implementing the new Medicaid work requirements, creating nightmarish situations for sick or disabled people who must prove their employment status to keep their medical coverage. This is not abstract politics — it is the daily life of millions of people.

The paradox: Musk was probably right on the substance

Here is the painful paradox of this story: Musk was probably correct about the budgetary impact of the law. Adding $3.8 trillion to the debt while cutting social programs for the poorest is indeed questionable fiscal policy. But his mixed motivations — the deficit yes, but also EV credits and personal interests — and his silence on social program cuts when he ran DOGE — stripped his opposition of any moral credibility. You can have the right numbers and the wrong intentions.

SpaceX and the future of the American space program

America's dependency on SpaceX

Musk's threat to retire Dragon revealed a troubling strategic vulnerability: the United States depends on SpaceX for its crewed flights to the International Space Station. Boeing Starliner has suffered repeated failures. No SpaceX means no sovereign American access to the ISS. This de facto monopoly — the result of massive public investment through NASA that allowed SpaceX to grow — now rests in the hands of one man who can use it as leverage against the government that funds him.

This situation has no precedent in the history of the American space program. During the Cold War, launch vehicles were entirely public programs controlled by NASA and the military. The outsourcing to the private sector — which produced technical marvels — also created a strategic dependency. The Musk-Trump dispute made that dependency visible. It has not been resolved.

The future of SpaceX contracts

After the reconciliation of early 2026, SpaceX contracts remained intact. The Pentagon, NRO and NASA continue to rely on Falcon 9, Falcon Heavy and Starship launch vehicles. The billions in government contracts are still there. But the question hangs in the air: what happens if Musk and Trump fall out again? Or if Musk decides his strategic interests — in China, in Europe, or elsewhere — diverge from those of the American government? That question will not find an easy answer.

The political legacy: what this break changed

The fragility of marriages of convenience

The Musk-Trump break illustrates a fundamental truth about political alliances of convenience: they hold as long as interests align, and collapse when they diverge. Musk needed Trump for access to power and regulatory protection. Trump needed Musk for the image of an innovative government and for his $277 million. When their interests over the One Big Beautiful Bill diverged, the alliance had no foundation left.

This dynamic is not unique to Trump and Musk — it is the logic of any political coalition. But the spectacular transparency with which it tore apart — live on X and Truth Social, with explicit threats about contracts and passports — exposed the normally hidden mechanics of American power to a global audience.

The democratic question: the billionaire in government

Beyond personalities, this story raises a fundamental democratic question: is it healthy for a democracy that the world's richest man runs a government agency without Senate confirmation, without an electoral mandate, and with documented conflicts of interest? The answer this episode suggests is no — not because Musk is bad, but because the very structure of this kind of arrangement creates corrupt incentives that always end up dominating good intentions.

The impact on American energy policy

The end of the EV credit: a lasting decision

The elimination of the $7,500 tax credit for electric vehicles — passed as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill — has real economic and climate consequences. Tesla, General Motors, Ford, Rivian — all saw their American sales prospects deteriorate overnight. Tesla was the first to admit the impact: a "limited vehicle offer in the United States this quarter" due to the "abrupt change." The American electric vehicle market, in the middle of accelerating, received a brutal regulatory brake.

The elimination of the EV credit was an ideological decision — Trump has always been skeptical of electric cars, framing them as a "woke" fraud. But it runs counter to the interests of one of his largest donors. And it weakens America's position in a global technology race where China already dominates battery and electric vehicle production. BYD, CATL, SAIC — Tesla's Chinese competitors have not lost their subsidies.

The Trumpist paradox on energy

The Trump administration favors fossil fuels while having accepted, during the Musk-at-DOGE period, using SpaceX as its technological flagship. These two positions are contradictory: favoring oil and gas means disadvantaging the technologies that could reduce that dependence. Eliminating EV credits weakens Tesla but also weakens America's industrial clean-vehicle base. In a trade war with China where electric cars are a central issue, it amounts to shooting yourself in the foot.

The question that remains: where is Musk in June 2026?

After the reconciliation: a player in the background, not gone

In June 2026, Elon Musk is no longer in the hallways of the White House. DOGE continues to exist in another form — the executive order signed in August 2025 created a National Design Studio that continues applying certain DOGE philosophies to the digital redesign of government. The "DOGE" accounts that claimed savings continue posting. But Musk himself is focused on Tesla, SpaceX, xAI and X.

The reconciliation with Trump appears superficial — functional, without warmth. SpaceX contracts are maintained, economic interests are preserved, but the enthusiasm of the 2024 campaign is gone. Musk said in December 2025 he would not do DOGE again. He was honest about that much.

The lesson for the future

What this episode leaves in American political history is an open question about the place of tech billionaires in democratic governance. Musk demonstrated that it is possible to buy unprecedented influence over the American government with $277 million. He also showed that this influence has limits — that even with total access, you cannot transform a democracy into a company, and that a president, however unpredictable, remains a political actor who responds to logics other than those of the market.

Conclusion: The billionaire and the president — an American story

Two egos, one democracy as playground

The Musk-Trump story is an American story in the deepest sense of the term. It is about money as political language, ego as the engine of decisions, and democracy as a playing field for men who believe they are above its rules. Musk believed $277 million bought him loyalty. Trump believed Musk was a compliant instrument. Both were wrong about the other.

What this says about America in 2026

In June 2026, American democracy is still standing — but it is damaged. DOGE fired public servants, cut social programs, created dangerous precedents about the role of private billionaires in public governance. The One Big Beautiful Bill is law — with its $3.8 trillion in additional debt, its Medicaid cuts, its EV credit elimination. The losers are neither Trump nor Musk. The losers are the fired federal workers, the Medicaid patients whose coverage is shrinking, and a democracy whose institutions have been tested in unprecedented ways. History will record that two men played with the American government like a toy. And that when toys break, it is rarely their owners who clean up the pieces.

Conclusion: The real bill

Who is really paying for this power game?

Elon Musk walked away with his companies intact, his contracts maintained and his fortune increased. Donald Trump is still in the White House with his flagship law adopted. The two have reconciled over dinner at Mar-a-Lago. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of American civil servants lost their jobs. Millions of Medicaid beneficiaries face new restrictions. Millions more SNAP food assistance recipients are receiving less. The bill for this episode is not paid by Musk. It is not paid by Trump. It is paid by ordinary America.

A warning for democracies

For all the democracies watching the American experiment — in Europe, Canada, Australia, and wherever tech billionaires are developing similar political ambitions — this episode is a warning. Money can buy a great deal. It can buy access, influence, headlines and even the directorship of a government agency. But it cannot buy democratic legitimacy. And when it tries, it is the institutions — and ordinary citizens — who pay the price of the experiment.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Editorial positioning

This investigation represents the personal views of Maxime Marquette, columnist for MadMax. The author believes in liberal democracy and in the necessity of protecting its institutions against all unelected concentrations of power, whether they come from the right or the left. This investigation does not take sides with Trump or Musk — it interrogates the system that allowed this situation to arise. The facts cited have been verified from open sources dating primarily from May–July 2025 and December 2025.

Limitations of the investigation

The details of the Mar-a-Lago reconciliation in early 2026 were never made public. The author relies on what was reported by credible media. The intimate motivations of Musk and Trump are not directly accessible — the interpretations presented are based on documented facts and the public statements of both protagonists.

Sources

Primary sources

Elon Musk announces his time at DOGE has 'come to an end' — USA Today — May 29, 2025

Elon Musk slams Trump's bill as a 'disgusting abomination' — Al Jazeera — June 3, 2025

Trump threatens to review subsidies on Musk-owned companies — Al Jazeera — July 1, 2025

Trump's "Head Back To South Africa" Threat Gets A Dare From Musk — NDTV — July 1, 2025

Trump-Musk Battle Restarts After Billionaire Bashes Tax Bill — Bloomberg — July 1, 2025

Musk calls Trump's bill 'utterly insane and destructive' — The Guardian — June 29, 2025

Secondary sources

As Musk exits, he sees his projects unraveling — Los Angeles Times — May 29, 2025

Musk 'disappointed' by Trump's tax and spending bill — BBC News — May 28, 2025

Elon Musk fires back at Trump's claim that his companies will still enjoy subsidies — Business Insider — July 2025

The DOGE mindset is still central to the Trump agenda as 2025 ends — NPR — December 22, 2025

What is Trump's One Big Beautiful Bill — India Today — May 29, 2025