QUICK TAKE: Eby puts Trump on the October 24 ballot, and Trump isn’t running

A smell of smoke in Victoria

Tuesday, September 22, at noon

David Eby called an election in British Columbia on Tuesday, September 22, and asked voters to say no to Donald Trump.

A flat no, even. The word he actually used was rougher. I’ll render it as conviction.

The vote will take place on October 24.

Donald Trump will not be a candidate.

Not in Victoria. Not in Vancouver. Not anywhere.

That is the whole take. The rest is detail.

The firebreak

The premier chose an image everyone out there understands. The firebreak.

He compared his party to a trench dug in front of a wildfire. “When you smell smoke, you don’t sit and wait to see what happens next,” he said, according to The Tyee. “You act.”

In summer in British Columbia, smoke gets in through closed windows. It stings the eyes. It lingers in the curtains. People know what the smell means.

A firebreak is dug with a shovel, in dry earth, around houses.

This one is dug in a voting booth.

The word is right. The use of it, less so.

You dig a firebreak around a house, not a party.

Two years ahead of schedule

A mandate running to 2028

The New Democrats won a narrow majority in 2024. Enough to govern alone.

Eby was not required to go back to voters before 2028, the Associated Press notes.

He did it anyway, two years after the last election.

He had been hinting at it for weeks, The Tyee writes. Despite the majority. Despite the two years left before the fixed date.

Two years. Twenty-four months of mandate left on the table.

He asked the lieutenant governor, Wendy Cocchia, to dissolve the legislature. She did.

Nothing illegal about it. A fixed date does not rule out a dissolution.

The reason given

The reason fits in one sentence, according to the Associated Press: the trade war and Trump’s threats changed conditions enough to justify a vote two years early.

“The conditions in our country have changed,” he said, according to The Tyee.

The conditions have changed, yes. So has the calendar. The question is which one made the call.

Two years early, to answer a man who doesn’t vote here.

A no addressed to an absentee

Tuesday’s rallying cry

Eby put Trump on the ballot. The Associated Press spells it out.

He frames the vote as a choice. On one side, his government, resisting American economic pressure. On the other, opponents he accuses of importing “MAGA-style politics.”

He urges voters to join him in a flat no to Trump and his politics.

The rallying cry is clear. The ballot is silent.

No ballot on October 24 carries Trump’s name.

There will be New Democrats, Conservatives, Greens and others. No Trump box. No Washington box.

A date picked, not a counterpunch

I read this election as a chosen date. Not as a counterpunch.

The threat is real. The response already existed. What was missing was a favorable moment.

And that moment was found by a party calendar. Not by a trade war calendar.

I’ll show it with their own numbers. The premier’s, and the voters’.

I reread Eby’s sentence. It stands up. It doesn’t stand on a ballot.

A ballot only knows the candidates printed on it.

Down 4%, up 16%

Eby’s numbers

I’ll start with what argues in his favor.

According to Eby, British Columbia’s exports to the United States fell 4%. Those to other markets rose 16%.

These are his numbers, reported by the Associated Press. I treat them as his.

He talks of new threats every day. Of escalating threats. Of a choice to make about how to respond, according to the National Observer.

He accuses Trump of attacking workers, going after businesses and threatening Canada’s sovereignty. He says this is not just a trade dispute but the life every family is building.

Not one drop of Jack Daniels

His firebreak has three parts, according to the Associated Press. Protect workers and businesses. Reduce dependence on the United States. Find new markets.

He also vowed that “not one drop of Jack Daniels” would return to provincial shelves until there is a fair deal with Washington.

Trump’s tariffs are a bad move. They hit an ally, and they divide the West that Washington is supposed to lead.

I don’t dispute the anger. I dispute where it is addressed.

On substance, then, Eby has a case. And yet on the date, he has none.

The threat is real, and the response already had an address.

Already underway

Three pillars, one majority

Rob Shaw has covered British Columbia politics for more than 18 years. He reread the transcript of the speech several times.

His conclusion, in the Richmond News: everything Eby promised on Tuesday, he was already doing. For months. With his majority.

Stand up to Trump. Support jobs. Build the economy.

None of it required a new mandate.

A majority. Projects underway. No gridlock.

Nothing to unblock

A minority government that falls, you understand. A bill that is blocked, you understand. A budget voted down, you understand.

Here, nothing was blocked. The majority was in no danger of imminent collapse, Shaw writes in a later column.

So why?

The columnist notices another detail. On the launch signage: no NDP logo, no premier’s face, no nine-year record in power. A blue slogan, “Build BC Strong.” A direct lift from the vocabulary of Mark Carney’s federal Liberals.

He notes this too. Eby faults the Conservatives for meeting the US ambassador. He met him too. He accuses them of wanting to turn the province into “America Junior.” They have not said that, Shaw points out.

Nothing was blocked, except the other side’s calendar.

Forty-eight hours after Findlay

Sunday, a resignation

On Sunday, September 20, Kerry-Lynne Findlay stepped down as leader of the BC Conservatives.

Forty-eight hours later, the writs dropped. The Angus Reid Institute did the count.

The party had elected 44 MLAs in 2024. It was down to 24 by the previous Friday, according to The Tyee, after a wave of departures.

The party did have money. It raised C$2.2 million in the first half of the year, about C$400,000 more than the NDP, according to The Tyee. It had money. It no longer had a leader.

A new centre-right party was taking in defectors. A by-election was underway. The whole opposing camp was a construction site.

The other side’s calendar

Stewart Prest, a political scientist at the University of British Columbia, calls it “an inauspicious time,” according to the National Observer.

He also points to a paradox. By calling the vote, Eby may have pulled off what nobody else had managed. Uniting the right.

Seven of the eight MLAs who had moved to the new centre-right party returned to the Conservatives the same day, Shaw reports.

Vaughn Palmer, a columnist at the Vancouver Sun, sees no demonstrable urgency, according to The Tyee. He sees a move to capitalize on a split opposition.

Marc Lee, an economist at the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives, writes that the vote could mask slow progress on the 2024 promises, the National Observer reports.

A veteran columnist. An economist at a progressive think tank. The criticism doesn’t come from one camp only.

Nobody picks a date without looking at the other side. No one pretends otherwise. But then don’t call it a response to Washington.

On the calendar, Findlay. In the speech, Trump.

October 17 and October 24

Two elections, one week

British Columbia’s municipal elections take place on October 17.

Advance voting for the provincial election opens on October 16, according to Elections BC. It runs until the 21st.

In other words, the day before the municipal vote, people can already vote for Victoria.

The mayors had asked that the two campaigns not overlap, the National Observer writes. They were not heard.

On the 17th, you choose the mayor. On the 24th, the government. Seven days apart.

Elections BC runs only the provincial vote. Municipal voting falls to local governments, the agency told the National Observer. Two machines. The same week. The same voters.

Fifty names on a ballot

In some municipalities, up to 50 candidates are running, notes Jenna Stoner, president of the Union of BC Municipalities.

She fears confusion. She fears the provincial campaign swallowing the attention local campaigns deserve.

Her question fits in one line: “What difference does it make to call this now, or four weeks from now?”

The answer can’t be Trump. In four weeks, Trump would still be there.

Fifty names on the 17th, and an absent headliner on the 24th.

Abbotsford-Mission votes twice

Ballots already cast

There was a by-election underway in Abbotsford-Mission.

A by-election means an empty seat. And voters who want to fill it.

Advance voting had already started there. Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s candidacy was already locked in, according to the National Observer.

Calling the general election canceled that by-election.

Elections BC says it plainly. The ballots already cast will not be counted.

Voting all over again

Voters who had cast a ballot will have to vote again, Elections BC specifies.

There are people who made the trip. People who folded their ballot and slipped it into the box. People who walked out feeling they had done their part.

Their vote will not count.

Not because of Washington. Not because of a tariff. Because of a date.

It is the smallest detail in the file. It is the one that weighs most.

I can’t laugh at this one. I would hold it against myself.

Votes cast, then erased, in the name of a counterpunch.

The seventh concern

59%, 42%, 15%

The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 801 adults from September 22 to 24.

It asked them what will decide their vote. The survey was conducted online. It offers a snapshot, not a verdict.

Cost of living: 59%. Health care: 42%. The economy and jobs: 28%. Housing: 25%. Crime: 25%. The deficit: 24%.

Then, seventh, US tariffs, Donald Trump and the alcohol ban: 15%.

Fifteen percent. Cost of living weighs almost four times as much. Health care, nearly three times.

Among the undecided, 12%

Among undecided voters, the ones the campaign has to win, only 12% cite relations with the United States. Among NDP voters, tariffs climb to 31%. Among Conservative voters, they drop to 6%. Among Green voters, 7%. Among voters of all parties combined, 15%.

The issue speaks mostly to the already convinced.

The institute notes that the tariff war has served Eby’s personal popularity well for 21 months. The premier seems, it writes, to want to strike while the iron is hot.

The iron is hot. Voters are talking about groceries.

Groceries come before Washington, among those asked.

Never a bad time

Eby’s best line

Eby deserves his best line. There is never a bad time to ask British Columbians which direction they want, he said, according to Shaw.

That is true in principle. Consulting voters is never a fault. A fresh mandate carries more weight in a negotiation than a worn one.

And the threat is not invented. The Associated Press recalls that talks between Ottawa and Washington have failed, and that the tariffs are heavy.

He also said, according to The Tyee, that British Columbians “deserve a say in the direction that we choose.” I don’t dispute it.

There is something more awkward for my reading. 56% of Angus Reid Institute respondents think the Conservatives are not ready to govern. Brad Zubyk, a former chief of staff to a Conservative leader, concedes as much on X, according to The Tyee: arguing that Eby doesn’t deserve another mandate is easy, showing a credible alternative less so.

I concede all of that. Without reservation.

What voters answer

And yet 62% of respondents consider the election premature. Among NDP voters, 52%.

And yet 65% say the premier is putting his hold on power ahead of the province’s interest.

The Conservatives lead 43% to 35% among decided and leaning voters. Ten days earlier, the NDP led by four points, according to the institute. It is early. One voter in five is undecided.

This poll does not say who will win. It says what people have understood.

Six voters in ten find the call too hasty.

Who pays for the date

Seventeen thousand people to hire

Elections BC is looking for about 17,000 election officials to run the vote, according to CHEK News.

Days of fifteen hours or more, from 7 a.m. to around 10 p.m. Paid C$329 to C$460 a day, according to the same source.

It is not a scandal. It is a bill. A bill that would have been paid in 2028 anyway, some will say.

Yes. In 2028.

Two years later. For the same thing. At the same price.

Municipal candidates in the shadows

The bill is not only in dollars.

It is in media attention, which will go to the provincial race. It is in the heads of voters who will have two campaigns to untangle in one week. It is in the ballot boxes of Abbotsford-Mission, where ballots are waiting not to be counted.

One Saturday in October, the polling station will smell of lukewarm coffee and gym floor. Election officials will stay fifteen hours. For a date.

Trump will pay for none of it.

Washington gets no bill for October 24.

Who sets the agenda

The name on everyone’s lips

Here is the mirror, and it isn’t aimed only at Victoria.

When a foreign president becomes the subject of a provincial election, he has already won something. He has chosen what we talk about at home.

He didn’t have to do anything. We put him on the agenda ourselves. He didn’t lift a finger.

Sovereignty is not only refusing a tariff. It is also keeping control of your own agenda.

A useful adversary costs nothing to whoever names him. The cost falls on those who were waiting to be talked about.

I say this with contempt for no one. The anger at the tariffs is justified. It deserves better than a date.

Health care, rent, groceries

I’ll admit to a certain fatigue. Every campaign now has its Trump chapter. Every leader wants to be the one who stands up to him best.

Meanwhile, health care, rent and groceries wait their turn. Voters, for their part, have put them first.

A firebreak is a trench where nothing burns. A campaign that talks only about the fire…

Putting Trump on the agenda already hands him the subject.

October 24, without Trump

The firebreak, revisited

The firebreak was a good image. It is dug around what you want to protect.

What the date serves is not the response to Washington. It is a majority, at the precise moment the opposition was collapsing.

The vote will decide who governs in Victoria. Nothing more.

The date serves a party. The word serves a president. The ballot serves only the voters.

I have nothing against an election. I have something against the label. A premier can ask for a mandate. He cannot pretend the ballot answers Washington.

What a ballot can refuse

What can a provincial ballot really refuse Donald Trump?

On October 24, people will vote for MLAs, a budget, emergencies, rents. The answer to Washington is being prepared elsewhere.

In Abbotsford-Mission, some will vote for the second time. Their first ballot sleeps in a box no one will open.

On October 24, Trump’s name will be missing. The bill won’t.

Sources:

Primary Sources:

• Associated Press (ABC News) — Eby calls an election and urges a no to Trump, September 23, 2026
• Elections BC — writs issued for the October 24 vote and by-election canceled, September 22, 2026
• Angus Reid Institute — September 22–24 poll on the election call, September 24, 2026

Secondary Sources:

• Richmond News, Rob Shaw — no convincing reason for the snap vote, September 23, 2026
• The Tyee — Eby calls the vote as the opposition scrambles, September 22, 2026
• Canada’s National Observer — the snap election and the October 17 municipal vote, September 22, 2026