Dear Ankara, the West Is Finally Ready to Turn Promises Into Factories

Introduction: an open letter to those who still doubt NATO's resolve

What Mark Rutte is about to announce

Dear skeptical reader of Western resolve, I write to you just days before the NATO summit in Ankara, set for July 7 and 8, 2026, as Secretary General Mark Rutte already announced, on June 25 from the Atlantic Council in Washington, that "tens of billions of dollars" in new defense contracts will be formalized at this gathering. His exact words deserve to be quoted in full: "We will announce tens of billions of dollars in new contracts, memorandums of understanding, letters of intent, but also major contracts currently being signed."

This summit, described by several analysts as the starting point of a genuine "military-industrial revolution," will not be limited to hollow speeches about transatlantic unity: for the first time in years, it will turn abstract budget commitments into concrete, measurable, deliverable industrial capacity.

Why this letter is addressed to you, specifically

If you are among those who think NATO is nothing more than a costly, symbolic bureaucracy, this letter is for you. I want to show you, with the numbers to back it up, that something tangible is taking shape in Ankara, and that this summit could well mark a turning point in how the West actually finances its own defense against the threats piling up on its eastern borders.

I am not claiming here that everything in NATO's machinery is perfect, far from it, but I also refuse to give in to the easy cynicism that systematically dismisses every Western initiative just because it sometimes arrives late.

What this Ankara summit really means for the defense industry

An industry forum dedicated from day one

On July 7, starting at 10 a.m., the NATO Summit Defence Industry Forum (NSDIF26) will open, an event entirely devoted to the now-established goal of raising defense investment to 5% of GDP among member states, in line with the commitment made at the 2025 Hague summit, which sets a 2035 horizon for reaching this ambitious target.

That 5% target breaks down into two distinct parts: 3.5% going directly to traditional defense spending, and 1.5% allocated to resilience and military mobility, a technical but essential distinction for understanding how allies intend to structure this budgetary buildup over the coming decade.

Clearly identified areas of investment

According to available information, the new contracts announced in Ankara will primarily target three strategic areas: deep-strike capabilities via long-range missiles, modernizing air defense against the growing threat of drones and missiles, and developing autonomous systems, particularly military drones, a sector where the West is trying to close the gap with rivals such as Russia and China.

This focus on concrete capabilities, rather than generic budget pledges, reflects a genuine strategic maturing of the Alliance, which finally seems to be turning declaratory ambitions into precise, measurable industrial priorities.

Aid to Ukraine at the heart of the financial discussions

A colossal aid package in the works

Beyond the Alliance's internal industrial contracts, the Ankarasummit is also expected to finalize a military aid package for Ukraine valued at roughly 70 billion euros a year for 2026-2027, or a total near 140 billion euros over two years, a figure that speaks to the scale of Western commitment to Kyiv in the face of Russia's ongoing aggression.

A significant share of that funding, about 30 billion euros a year, is expected to flow through a European loan mechanism, a financial structure that pools risk among EU member states while speeding up the delivery of funds for Ukraine's urgent military needs.

Zelensky present but outside the main plenary

President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose presence at this summit remains highly symbolic, will not, however, take part in the main plenary session of heads of state and government, a decision confirmed by Mark Rutte as early as June 17. He will still take part in several events on the sidelines of the summit, including a NATO-Ukraine Council dinner set for July 7 at 7:45 p.m., along with an appearance planned directly at the Defense Industry Forum.

This arrangement, which might at first glance seem to sideline Ukraine, actually reflects a delicate diplomatic balance between maintaining visible support for Kyiv and managing the internal sensitivities of certain allies regarding Ukraine's exact status within NATO's structures.

"Burden shifting" finally named officially

A historic acknowledgment in the summit declaration

For the first time, according to the analysis of Oana Lungescu, a researcher at the British think tank RUSI, the official declaration from the Ankarasummit is expected to explicitly name the concept of "burden shifting" — that is, the gradual transfer of the West's defense burden from the United States to European allies, a dynamic that has been accelerating for years but had never been formally acknowledged in an official Alliance document.

Technical as it may sound, this textual acknowledgment actually represents a major paradigm shift in how NATO conceives of its own defense architecture, explicitly stating that Europe must now assume a growing and lasting share of its own collective security.

Numbers that already confirm this trend

European allies and Canada already increased their core defense spending by roughly 139 billion dollars last year, a rise of about 20%, a significant jump that predates the official announcement of the burden-shifting concept and shows this dynamic was already underway before it was even formally written into a NATO document.

This European budgetary acceleration, if it continues at the current pace, could structurally reshape the Alliance's financial balance by the end of the decade, gradually reducing the historical reliance on the American budgetary umbrella.

Donald Trump's ambiguous but necessary role in this dynamic

Presidential pressure that is finally paying off

It has to be acknowledged, without excessive indulgence but with honesty, that the pressure Donald Trump has exerted for years on European allies to significantly raise their defense spending has directly contributed to today's budgetary acceleration, this repeated insistence eventually producing concrete results that neither his predecessors nor internal European appeals had managed to achieve with the same effectiveness.

This dynamic, uncomfortable as it may be for some traditional supporters of diplomatic multilateralism, illustrates a hard-to-dispute strategic reality: American firmness on burden-sharing has accelerated a transformation Europe had been putting off for decades out of budgetary comfort.

An essential distinction never to forget

I want to make clear, with the same honesty, that this acknowledgment of Trump's positive role on the military and NATO file does not extend in any way to his domestic American policies, marked by persistent controversies over public health, the functioning of the Department of Justice, and multiple conflicts of interest that continue to undermine democratic trust in the United States.

On the military and NATO front specifically, however, the facts speak for themselves: the pressure applied has produced measurable European budgetary acceleration, and it would be intellectually dishonest not to acknowledge that simply because the source of that pressure remains controversial on other issues.

The two-day summit program in detail

A first day dense with announcements

On July 7, besides the morning opening of the Defense Industry Forum, a joint statement from Mark Rutte and Volodymyr Zelensky is scheduled for 2 p.m., followed in the evening by the NATO-Ukraine Council dinner mentioned earlier, a sequence of events that illustrates the diplomatic and industrial density of this first day of the summit.

This methodical scheduling, alternating economic announcements with diplomatic gestures toward Ukraine, reflects organizers' clear intent to maximize the summit's media and strategic impact from the very start, rather than spreading major announcements thinly across both days.

A second day devoted to final decisions

On July 8, the North Atlantic Council meeting bringing together all heads of state and government will begin at 11:15 a.m., ahead of Mark Rutte's closing press conference set for 3 p.m., the moment when all announcements of contracts and financial commitments are expected to be formally consolidated and publicly communicated to the international press gathered in Ankara for the occasion.

This precise schedule, made public several days in advance, reflects a well-oiled NATO organization, far from the sometimes caricatured image of a slow, disorganized international bureaucracy.

Turkey, a strategic host for a summit of major symbolic weight

Ankara, a geographic choice heavy with meaning

Choosing Turkey as host country for this summit is no accident: a NATO member since 1952, Turkey occupies a unique geostrategic position at the crossroads of Europe, the Middle East, and the Black Sea, a location that carries particular weight in the current context of prolonged confrontation with Russia along the Alliance's eastern flank.

This Turkish geographic position, combined with its rapidly growing defense industrial capacity, particularly in military drones where the country has established itself as a leading global player, makes Turkey an increasingly indispensable industrial partner for the new defense contracts announced at this summit.

A symbol of unity despite past internal tensions

Despite occasional diplomatic tensions over the years between Ankara and certain Western members of the Alliance, holding this major summit on Turkish soil sends a strong signal of cohesion, a reminder that NATO's unity, though sometimes tested by isolated disagreements, remains solid enough to organize an event of this strategic and financial magnitude.

This symbolic choice also reinforces Turkey's position as an indispensable pivot for broader European security, a role the country appears determined to fully embrace amid a geopolitical context marked by the war in Ukraine and persistent tensions with Moscow.

Western defense manufacturers gearing up

A once-in-a-generation commercial opportunity for the sector

For major Western defense industrial groups, this summit represents a commercial opportunity of rarely seen scale, with financial analysts cited by CNBC already noting a notable rise in the stock valuations of European defense companies even ahead of the official announcement of the contracts expected in Ankara.

This positive market anticipation, observable for several weeks, reflects financial markets' confidence that the budget commitments announced by Mark Rutte will actually materialize, an economic signal that further reinforces the credibility of this pre-summit announcement.

An industry that now has to match the pace of the announcements

The real challenge, beyond simply signing contracts, will be the Western defense industry's actual ability to deliver on these commitments within a reasonable timeframe, with several experts already pointing to existing strain on supply chains for munitions, military electronic components, and skilled labor specialized in these advanced sectors.

This question of real production capacity, distinct from mere declared budgetary will, will ultimately determine whether the Ankara announcements translate into a tangible and rapid strengthening of Western military capabilities, or remain partly theoretical for lack of sufficient industrial means in the short term.

What this summit means for deterrence against Russia

A direct reinforcement of the eastern defensive posture

The announced investments in air defense and deep-strike capabilities fit directly into a logic of strengthening deterrence against Russia, whose ongoing aggression against Ukraine reminds every NATO member daily of the urgency of maintaining credible technological and numerical military superiority on the Alliance's eastern flank.

This logic of deterrence, backed by concrete contracts rather than mere statements of intent, sends a clear message to Vladimir Putin: the West is not weakening in its military support for Ukraine or in strengthening its own collective defensive capabilities, contrary to certain hopes the Kremlin has voiced about a gradual fraying of Western solidarity.

A message also aimed at China and Iran

Beyond the immediate context of the war in Ukraine, this strengthening of Western defense capabilities also sends a strategic signal to other hostile actors, notably China and Iran, whose respective regional and global ambitions require credible, technologically advanced Western deterrence across several theaters at once.

This multilateral dimension of Western deterrence, which is therefore not limited to the European context alone, shows clearly why this Ankarasummit reaches well beyond a simple regional meeting to become an event of truly global significance for the international strategic balance.

The legitimate criticisms accompanying these announcements

The risk of a gap between promise and delivery

It would be dishonest of this open letter to skip over the legitimate criticism raised by some defense experts, who point out that previous NATO summit announcements have not always been followed by swift, complete execution, with several industrial projects announced at earlier summits having faced significant delays in their actual rollout on the ground.

This methodological caution, well grounded in the Alliance's historical track record, calls for continued vigilance from observers and Western citizens alike, who will need to watch closely in the months after the summit whether the tens of billions announced actually translate into concrete, measurable military deliveries.

Greater transparency that reassures nonetheless

Despite these legitimate reservations, the unusual precision of Mark Rutte's advance announcements, including specific figures and a detailed schedule shared days ahead of time, is itself a mark of seriousness superior to what was seen at previous NATO summits, where announcements tended to stay vaguer and harder to verify after the fact.

This greater transparency, if it holds up once the summit is over, could help restore some of the Western public's trust in an institution sometimes perceived, rightly or wrongly, as technocratic and disconnected from the concrete concerns of the citizens who fund these defense investments.

Why this summit matters more than previous ones

A geopolitical context that leaves no room for wait-and-see

Unlike some earlier NATO summits held in a relatively calm environment, the one in Ankara comes as the war in Ukraine enters its fifth year, tensions with China over Taiwan remain high, and Iran continues to pose a major destabilizing regional threat in the Middle East — a combination of factors that makes the urgency of these industrial announcements far more concrete than at previous NATO gatherings.

This buildup of simultaneous tensions across several distinct geopolitical theaters explains why Western leaders can no longer settle for symbolic statements of intent: today's strategic urgency demands tangible, rapid, and verifiable industrial results, checkable by all allies and international observers.

A credibility test for the entire Western security architecture

This summit ultimately represents a major credibility test for the entire Western security architecture: if the tens of billions announced actually materialize into signed contracts and concrete deliveries in the following months, NATO will have shown it can turn rhetoric into tangible military action against adversaries who, for their part, never fail to translate their ambitions into real military capability.

Conversely, failing to deliver on these announcements would send a dangerous signal of weakness to adversaries who watch closely for any sign of hesitation or division within the Atlantic Alliance, making the stakes of this summit all the more critical for Western collective security over the medium and long term.

What this letter hopes to spark in you

A call for informed vigilance rather than lazy cynicism

I write this open letter to you, dear reader, not to convince you blindly of NATO's perfection, but to invite you to watch closely, in the weeks following this Ankara summit, whether the tens of billions of dollars announced by Mark Rutte actually translate into signed contracts, concrete military deliveries, and a measurable strengthening of the West's defensive posture.

This informed vigilance, demanding but constructive, strikes me as far more useful to Western democracy than the lazy cynicism that dismisses every institutional initiative outright simply because previous ones have sometimes disappointed; it is precisely this collective demand that can push our institutions to genuinely improve.

A final invitation to keep watching closely in the coming weeks

In the coming weeks, I will keep closely tracking how these Ankara announcements actually play out, and I commit to coming back to you, dear reader, with an honest assessment of what was actually delivered versus what was merely promised, in keeping with the factual rigor that must always come before enthusiasm or circumstantial pessimism.

It is this demand for continuous verification, rather than simple endorsement or simple rejection, that must now guide our collective relationship with institutions as essential as NATO for the security of our democratic Western societies.

What the most exposed allies expect in concrete terms

Poland and the Baltic states on the front line of expectations

Among the Alliance members watching most closely for concrete results from this summit are Poland and the Baltic states, whose immediate geographic proximity to Russia makes every announced reinforcement of air defense and deep-strike capability particularly significant for their own short-term national security.

These countries, which have long exceeded the 2% of GDP defense-spending target for years, hope the new industrial contracts announced in Ankara will quickly translate into concrete deliveries of modern air defense systems, an urgent need given the rising frequency of drone incidents and airspace violations reported in recent months.

Western solidarity put to a concrete test

For these frontline allies, this summit is far more than a diplomatic exercise: it is a concrete test of Western solidarity at a moment when the Russian threat remains immediate and tangible, unlike other Alliance members geographically further from the Ukrainian theater of operations and thus sometimes less pressed to see these commitments materialize quickly.

This difference in perception between frontline allies and more distant ones illustrates well the complexity of managing priorities within an alliance as vast as NATO, where perceived urgency varies significantly depending on proximity to the immediate Russian threat.

The expected impact on member states' national budgets

An inevitable domestic budgetary strain

Ramping up these defense investments will not come without consequences for member states' national budgets, with several European governments now having to weigh funding these new military contracts against maintaining existing social programs, a budgetary balancing act already sparking internal political debate in several European capitals.

This budgetary tension, though rarely highlighted in official NATO communications, represents a major political issue for the long-term sustainability of this rising defense-spending trajectory, with several European opposition parties beginning to publicly question the pace set by the 5% of GDP target by 2035.

An investment presented as profitable in the long run

Advocates of this budgetary trajectory, including several NATO officials themselves, argue that these defense investments also generate significant positive economic spillovers, notably in the form of skilled industrial job creation and stronger national technological capacity, economic arguments that complement the purely security-based justification for this budgetary buildup.

This positive economic dimension, if it holds up once the Ankaracontracts are actually implemented, could help ease some of the domestic political resistance currently seen in several European member states facing otherwise significant budgetary constraints.

Conclusion: see you after Ankara for the reckoning

An ambitious promise that must now be kept

This open letter closes on a note of cautious hope: the Ankarasummit offers, on paper, a rare opportunity to turn years of often frustrating NATO budget debates into concrete, measurable industrial commitments, capable of genuinely strengthening the West's collective defensive posture amid an increasingly unstable and threatening geopolitical environment.

The responsibility now rests on the shoulders of the Western leaders present in Ankara: turning the tens of billions of dollars announced into actually signed contracts, then into concrete military deliveries within timeframes matched to today's strategic urgency, or this promise will join the long list of partially honored NATO commitments.

One final invitation to stay watchful and demanding

I invite you, then, dear reader, not to let your attention drop once the cameras go dark and the speeches in Ankara end: it is in the months following this summit that the credibility of this historic announcement will truly be decided, and it is this collective, informed, and demanding vigilance that will determine whether the West has finally managed to turn its words into real industrial power.

See you soon, for an honest reckoning of what this Ankarasummit will truly have changed for Western collective security.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I sign this open letter as a columnist holding an avowedly pro-Western, pro-defense position, convinced that strengthening Western military capabilities against Russian, Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean threats is an urgent strategic necessity for the security of our democratic societies.

My analysis draws on official statements from NATO officials, reports from financial analysts specializing in defense, and established journalistic sources, while striving to rigorously separate official announcements from projections and personal interpretations clearly labeled as such.

What I don't know, and my method

I cannot guarantee that every contract announced in Ankara will materialize on schedule, nor can I predict with certainty the exact scale of these investments' real impact on the military balance against Russia. My method is to faithfully report verifiable official announcements while openly owning my own editorial commentary, always kept distinct from the factual record in this text.

Sources

Primary sources

Global Affairs — Beyond defense spending: what's at stake at NATO Ankara, July 2026

CNBC — Europe defense stocks rearmament, July 1, 2026

NATO — Overview, 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara, July 2026

Secondary sources

Forbes — What defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit, July 1, 2026

Reuters — NATO's Rutte says billions in new defense contracts will be announced at summit, June 25, 2026

Wikipedia — 2026 Ankara NATO summit, July 2026

Anadolu Agency — Factbox, NATO defense spending, where allies stand ahead of Ankara summit, July 2026