To Moscow and Beijing, who came to honor Khamenei without ever naming him

Introduction: an open letter to those who made the trip to Tehran

A capital under the weight of political mourning

Since July 3, 2026, Tehran has been living to the rhythm of funeral ceremonies for the former supreme leaderAli Khamenei, killed in late February in a joint American-Israeli strike that triggered the most destructive warIran has known in decades. Delegations from roughly a hundred countries have passed through the Iranian capital, according to Al Jazeera, in a diplomatic procession that says a great deal about the real alliances of a weakened Iranian regime.

I am writing this open letter directly to those who chose to make the trip, particularly the Russian delegation, because their presence at these funerals is never a neutral gesture: it is a deliberate political choice, with very real consequences for the global geopolitical balance.

Moscow's revealing choice

Russia sent Dmitry Medvedev, deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council and personal envoy of Vladimir Putin, who met Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian on the sidelines of the ceremonies, according to the Moscow Times. Sending a senior official rather than a mere protocol delegation confirms, once again, the depth of the strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran.

This alliance, already visible in the supply of Iranian drones to the Russian army for its war against Ukraine, takes on an additional symbolic dimension here: paying tribute to the spiritual leader of a regime with which Russia now shares a common adversary, the democratic West.

Dear Kremlin, your presence in Tehran fools no one

An alliance of convenience turned structural

The partnership between Moscow and Tehran was long presented by both capitals as pragmatic and limited, but the presence of a senior dignitary like Medvedev at Khamenei'sfuneral shows an evolution toward something deeper and more lasting than a simple transactional arrangement.

This relationship was built on Russia's concrete military needs in the midst of its war of aggression against Ukraine, but it now goes far beyond a strictly military framework to encompass an explicit ideological convergence against the international order dominated by Western democracies.

What this means for Kyiv and for Europe

Every gesture of rapprochement between Russia and Iran should directly alarm European capitals and Kyiv, since this alliance carries very concrete military consequences: Iranian Shahed drones keep striking Ukrainian cities, often at night, targeting civilian and energy infrastructure.

Ignoring the symbolic dimension of these funerals would be an analytical mistake: every handshake between Russian and Iranian dignitaries in Tehran this month has a direct translation on the Ukrainian battlefield, in the skies above Odesa or Kharkiv.

Dear Beijing, your strategic silence has a price too

A minimal but calculated Chinese presence

China sent He Wei, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress, marking the first senior Chinese visit to Iran since the start of the war, according to Al Jazeera. This choice of a mid-level delegation, rather than a direct presidential presence, reflects Beijing's usual caution on the most sensitive files in the Middle East.

That calculated caution, however, should not obscure the essential fact: China remains one of the main buyers of Iranian oil, an essential financial lifeline for a regime that Western sanctions are precisely designed to economically strangle.

Beijing's double game of discretion and strategic interest

Beijing has spent years cultivating a balancing act in the Middle East, maintaining economic ties with Iran while avoiding an overtly anti-Western alignment that would hurt its own commercial interests with Europe and the United States.

This approach, far more sophisticated than Moscow's, remains no less problematic for the West: it lets China reap the economic benefits of its relationship with Iran without fully bearing the diplomatic costs, a strategic hypocrisy that must be named clearly.

The backdrop of a war that changed Iran forever

A strike that decapitated the regime's leadership

The death of Khamenei in late February 2026, in a joint American-Israeli strike, marked the starting point of a devastating war that deeply weakened the Iranian regime's power structures, leaving a void at the top that succession still struggles to fully fill several months later.

This military operation, however controversial under international law, confirmed the Western and Israeli willingness to strike directly at the top of Iranian power rather than settling for economic sanctions whose effectiveness had proven limited for years.

An absent son who says a lot about the regime's fragility

Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the former supreme leader and long-discussed potential successor, did not attend his father's funeral, citing security reasons, according to several regional media outlets. This highly symbolic absence shows just how much the Iranian regime remains under the threat of new targeted strikes.

A power that cannot even guarantee the security of its own spiritual leader's son at a national funeral is a deeply shaken power, regardless of how large the popular mobilization organized for the occasion may be.

Dear Islamabad, your mediation deserves recognition

A facilitator's role praised even by its rivals

Pakistan, which played a key mediating role in the truce that ended the most intense hostilities of this war, sent Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to attend the funeral, a strong diplomatic gesture that publicly acknowledges Pakistan's role in the recent de-escalation.

This Pakistani diplomacy, often underrated on the world stage, deserves recognition for what it is: a rare example of effective regional mediation in a conflict where major Western powers could not play the role of neutral intermediary.

India, cautious, keeps its distance

India, by comparison, sent only a deputy foreign minister and the governor of Bihar, without Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a clear signal of diplomatic caution from New Delhi on such a sensitive matter.

This Indian caution contrasts with Russia's eagerness and reflects the balancing position India is trying to maintain between its relations with the West, with Russia and with the Gulf states, an increasingly difficult diplomatic act to sustain in a polarized world.

Dear West, your absence did not go unnoticed

A total absence that speaks for itself

No major Western country sent an official delegation to these funerals, an absence that stands in sharp contrast with the presence of nearly a hundred delegations from elsewhere around the world, according to Al Jazeera's coverage. This Western diplomatic silence is not an oversight: it is a political choice consistent with the West's position on this regime.

This absence confirms, if confirmation were needed, that the rupture between the democratic West and the Iranian regime remains total, with no diplomatic ambiguity whatsoever, unlike the more nuanced stance adopted by several countries of the Global South.

A consistency worth praising despite the criticism

Some observers will accuse the West of excessive diplomatic isolation that deprives Western capitals of a useful communication channel with Tehran, but that criticism ignores a fundamental reality: you do not send an official delegation to pay tribute to the spiritual leader of a regime that funds regional terrorism and brutally represses its own population.

This Western consistency, even if it carries a real diplomatic cost, remains the only defensible position toward a regime that has never abandoned its declared hostility toward Western democracies and their regional allies.

The weight of Iranian popular mobilization

Millions in the Iranian streets

Iranian authorities cite between fifteen and twenty million people taking part in the various funeral ceremonies across the country, according to The News International, an impressive figure that reflects both genuine national mourning and a mobilization carefully orchestrated by a regime seeking to project an image of restored national cohesion.

It is nonetheless difficult to separate, in this kind of state-organized mobilization, the share of authentic grief from that of social and political pressure exerted on an Iranian population exhausted by months of war and severe economic hardship.

A regime that needs this display of strength

This massive mobilization above all serves the interests of a weakened Iranian regime, which needs to project an image of popular solidity at a particularly critical moment in its recent history, marked by a devastating war and an uncertain political succession at the top of the state.

The contrast between this organized display of strength and the reality of a power deeply weakened by the war illustrates the persistent gap between official Iranian propaganda and the actual situation on the ground, a gap Western observers must keep documenting rigorously.

The funeral calendar as a political instrument

A carefully orchestrated multi-day sequence

The funeral calendar spans several days, from Tehran on July 3 and 4 to Qom on July 7, then on to Iraq, Najaf and Karbala on July 8, before final burial in Mashhad on July 9, according to several regional media outlets. This extended sequence lets the regime maximize media coverage and popular mobilization over nearly an entire week.

The stops at Shiite holy sites in Iraq are not incidental: they aim to strengthen the religious and political ties between Iran and the Iraqi Shiite militias that remain essential strategic allies of Tehran in the region.

Funeral diplomacy in the service of regional influence

This strategic use of national mourning as a tool of regional foreign policy illustrates the sophistication of the Iranian regime in managing its image, even at the most vulnerable moment of its recent political history, marked by the loss of its historic spiritual leader.

The West would be wrong to underestimate this Iranian capacity to turn a succession crisis into an opportunity to strengthen its network of regional alliances, particularly among Shiite populations in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere in the region.

What this diplomatic map reveals about the world of 2026

An increasingly stark global polarization

The list of countries present and absent at these funerals draws, almost perfectly, the map of the geopolitical blocs structuring the world of 2026: on one side, an axis grouping Russia, China and several countries of the Global South; on the other, a democratic West united in its deliberate, consistent absence.

This polarization, documented in black and white by the list of delegations present according to the Eastern Herald, confirms that the war in Iran never remained a purely regional conflict: it fits squarely into the broader confrontation between Western democracies and allied authoritarian regimes.

A lesson for Western strategists

This diplomatic map should serve as a lesson for Western decision-makers: the isolation of the Iranian regime remains largely theoretical as long as Russia and China keep providing it with substantial diplomatic and economic support, even in a discreet, calculated form like the one observed in Tehran this week.

A coherent Western strategy against Iran must necessarily include increased pressure on these two strategic partners of the regime, rather than focusing solely on Tehran itself, isolated but still supported from outside.

The murky role of Chinese energy diplomacy

Iranian oil, an essential financial lifeline

Chinese imports of Iranian oil, often carried out through roundabout channels to bypass Western sanctions, make up one of the main sources of revenue for the Tehran regime, an economic reality that largely explains the Chinese diplomatic caution seen at these funerals.

This mutual dependence, economic for Iran and strategic for a China that secures part of its energy supply this way, creates a structural bond far stronger than the mere protocol presence of a mid-level Chinese dignitary at Khamenei's funeral.

A hypocrisy worth documenting

Beijing continues to publicly call for regional stability and diplomatic dialogue while, in practice, financing a regime whose destabilizing regional activities have been documented for decades by numerous Western and UN reports.

This contradiction between official Chinese rhetoric and its concrete economic actions deserves to be systematically exposed by Western diplomats, rather than treated as a minor detail in the broader Sino-Western relationship.

The consequences for regional stability in the short term

A succession that remains largely uncertain

Despite these carefully orchestrated state funerals, the question of real succession at the top of Iranian religious and political power remains largely unresolved, an institutional uncertainty that could fuel dangerous internal rivalries in the months ahead.

This succession uncertainty, combined with the regime's military and economic weakening after months of war, creates a particularly volatile context that warrants close monitoring by Western intelligence services.

A risk of internal fragmentation that should not be underestimated

Some regional analysts now point to a real risk of internal fragmentation of Iranian power, among military, religious and political factions that could vie for more direct control in the post-Khamenei era, a scenario that would have major repercussions across the entire Middle East.

The West must prepare for several possible scenarios, rather than assuming an automatic continuity of the regime under a new, unified leadership, given how high current uncertainty remains according to several recent regional analyses.

Dear Western reader, here is why this matters to you

A direct link to your energy and military security

What is happening in Tehran right now is not some distant event without direct consequences for Western citizens: the alliances being confirmed at these funerals have a concrete impact on energy prices, on European security in the face of Iranian drones used by Russia, and on the overall stability of the Middle East.

Understanding who was in Tehran this week, and why, means understanding an essential part of the map of alliances that will shape the major conflicts and tensions of the coming years worldwide.

An invitation to stay vigilant rather than indifferent

It would be easy to treat these funerals as a simple Iranian religious and cultural event with no great significance for the rest of the world, but that superficial reading would ignore the major geopolitical dimension of every diplomatic gesture made this week in Tehran.

I invite you, as Western readers, to follow this story with the same attention you would give any major development directly affecting your collective security, because that is exactly what is at stake here.

What history will remember about this generational transition

A regime forced to improvise its own continuity

The manner in which the Iranian regime has handled this succession crisis, improvising a lengthy funeral calendar rather than presenting a clear, prepared transition plan, suggests a leadership caught off guard by the speed and violence of recent events, despite decades spent theoretically preparing for this exact moment.

This apparent improvisation matters because a regime that cannot manage its own institutional continuity smoothly is a regime more vulnerable to miscalculation, both toward its own population and toward its regional and international adversaries.

Why Western patience should have limits

Some Western commentators will argue for patience, suggesting that a weakened Iranian regime might eventually moderate its behavior once the succession settles, but this open letter takes a different, more skeptical position: regimes under maximum internal pressure often become more dangerous, not less, as they search for external distractions from domestic fragility.

Western capitals would be wise to treat this transition period as a moment of heightened risk requiring vigilance, rather than a natural opening for renewed diplomatic outreach toward a regime that has given no indication of genuine change.

A final word before this letter closes

Why I chose the format of an open letter

I chose to write this piece as an open letter rather than a conventional analysis because some truths land harder when addressed directly to those responsible for them, rather than filtered through the more distant, impersonal voice of a third-person report.

Addressing Moscow, Beijing, Islamabad and the West directly is a deliberate rhetorical choice, meant to make the stakes of this diplomatic map feel immediate rather than abstract, even though none of these capitals will ever formally respond to a columnist's letter.

Conclusion: a letter that stays open, like Iran's future

What this week taught us collectively

The funeral of Ali Khamenei will have revealed, in just a few days, the true architecture of the world's alliances in 2026: a Russo-Chinese axis quietly but firmly backing the Iranian regime, a Global South divided between caution and religious solidarity, and a democratic West united in its deliberate, consistent absence.

This diplomatic map, drawn in black and white by the list of delegations present and absent in Tehran, deserves careful study by anyone seeking to understand the fault lines that will shape the major international conflicts of the coming years.

A letter that will remain unanswered, and that is just fine

This open letter, addressed to Moscow, to Beijing, to Islamabad and to the West as a whole, will probably never receive a direct official reply, and that was never really its purpose anyway: it aimed instead to document, for the record, what the funeral diplomacy of a regime in existential crisis truly reveals.

Iran's future remains as uncertain as the succession of its former supreme leader, but one thing already seems clear: the alliances confirmed this week in Tehran will keep shaping global geopolitics long after the last echoes of these funerals have faded.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

How I built this open letter

I am neither a diplomat nor an academic specialist on the Middle East, and this open letter reflects my personal, openly acknowledged interpretation of facts reported by verifiable public journalistic sources, cited in full below. No factual information was invented or extrapolated beyond what these sources report.

My acknowledged biases on this story

I openly hold a pro-Western editorial line critical of the Iranian regime, of Russia and of China, a bias I fully own in this open letter of an editorial nature. The figures and quotes attributed to third parties come directly from the journalistic sources cited, while the interpretations and value judgments expressed are entirely my own.

Sources

Primary sources

Al Jazeera — Iran's Khamenei funeral: Which world leaders are attending, July 3, 2026

Iran International — Coverage of Khamenei's funeral, July 3, 2026

The Moscow Times — Medvedev to lead Russian delegation at Iranian supreme leader's funeral, July 2, 2026

Secondary sources

The News International — Khamenei funeral: millions gather in Iran, July 3, 2026

Eastern Herald — Khamenei funeral Tehran: diplomatic attendance map, July 3, 2026

Foreign Policy — Analyses of regional alliances and the Iran-Israel-US war, July 2026