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DECODING: Russia’s 5.731-Trillion-Rouble Deficit Is Outrunning Its Budget Plan
Analysis· No. 5242

DECODING: Russia’s 5.731-Trillion-Rouble Deficit Is Outrunning Its Budget Plan

DECODING: Patriot and THAAD Stock Claims Clash—Factory Timelines Do Not
Analysis· No. 5238

DECODING: Patriot and THAAD Stock Claims Clash—Factory Timelines Do Not

About 20 Patriot interceptors a month and 15 Tomahawks a month: those reported production rates are harder to argue with than the competing claims…

ANALYSIS: Washington Eased Three IRGC-Linked Listings—But the Pressure System Stayed Intact
Analysis· No. 5236

ANALYSIS: Washington Eased Three IRGC-Linked Listings—But the Pressure System Stayed Intact

On August 5, 2026, the U.S. Treasury Department removed counterterrorism sanctions from two aircraft and three airlines reported as linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary…

COLUMN: Washington Put $102 Million on the Post–El Mencho Hunt
Column· No. 5234

COLUMN: Washington Put $102 Million on the Post–El Mencho Hunt

On August 5, 2026, U.S. authorities announced $102 million in rewards tied to alleged CJNG leaders after publicizing indictments. The amount is an offer;…

FACT CHECK: Fico’s Moscow Talk Is Real, but the Defence Data Are From 2025
Analysis· No. 5232

FACT CHECK: Fico’s Moscow Talk Is Real, but the Defence Data Are From 2025

The strongest defence-spending claim in the available record is dated late August 2025: Robert Fico said Slovakia would stay at NATO’s 2% of GDP…

DECODING: Berlin’s €109.7 Billion Defence Jump Comes With an €838 Billion Bill
Analysis· No. 5229

DECODING: Berlin’s €109.7 Billion Defence Jump Comes With an €838 Billion Bill

The cabinet led by Friedrich Merz approved a draft 2027 budget on July 6, 2026 that raises German defence spending from €82.2 billion in…

ANALYSIS: Europe Set a 2030 Defence Deadline. Its Gaps Will Not Wait
Analysis· No. 5228

ANALYSIS: Europe Set a 2030 Defence Deadline. Its Gaps Will Not Wait

The European Commission’s Readiness Roadmap 2030 sets a deadline of the end of 2028 to close capability gaps and the end of 2030 to…

OPEN LETTER: AUKUS Cannot Become a Paper Promise of Submarines
Open letter· No. 5227

OPEN LETTER: AUKUS Cannot Become a Paper Promise of Submarines

The Pentagon has proposed that Australia receive only Virginia-class attack submarines already in service, rather than the mix of used and newly built boats…

ANALYSIS: 450 Seats, 11 Occupied Districts, and a Duma Election Already Distorted
Analysis· No. 5226

ANALYSIS: 450 Seats, 11 Occupied Districts, and a Duma Election Already Distorted

Russia’s September 18–20, 2026 Duma election will choose 450 deputies, including 11 constituencies created in occupied Ukrainian territories. The map creates a legitimacy problem…

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