Analysis
Pieces
ANALYSIS: The Thucydides Trap and the 2027–2030 Window Between China and the West
Across five centuries of modern history, Graham Allison and his team at Harvard’s Belfer Center counted sixteen cases in which a rising power challenged an established one. Twelve ended in war. Four did not, and each of those four demanded…
ANALYSIS: Moscow counts 613 drones and answers that the war must continue, while Trump holds Kyiv back
Six hundred thirteen. That is the number of drones launched at Moscow in a single night, if its mayor, Sergey Sobyanin, is to be…
EXPLAINER: Israel, 53 seats for Netanyahu, 61 needed, and 19 Arab seats almost everyone refuses
Fifty-three seats. In the partial count, Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc comes first. Governing takes 61. The Knesset has 120 seats. A majority starts at 61.…
EXPLAINER: Why the UN finally calls Russia’s cold a crime against humanity
A man in Kyiv. Fifty-three years old. Last winter. One precise fear. Not the missiles. Not the sirens. “The scariest thing was to fall…
ANALYSIS: Abu Dhabi after November 4, a peace negotiated without Europe
A date. November 4. A Russian holiday. Then, maybe, a table. In the Gulf. The Kremlin set its calendar, and it pinned it to…
FACT CHECK: Trump’s million against voter fraud, what the numbers really say
One million. In dollars. Promised to anyone who reports voter fraud leading to an arrest, then a conviction. Donald Trump makes the offer. It…
ANALYSIS: Carney signs in Ankara while Trump says he holds all the cards
Donald Trump was walking to Marine One. A reporter brings up Canada. The answer drops. “We have all the cards.”
FACT CHECK: Trump says more oil flows through Hormuz than before the war, the data say 82%
Donald Trump wrote on Thursday. Iran is “making up fake attacks, mines, and everything else.”
EXPLAINER: Putin denies any mobilization, then signs his fourth army expansion in seven months
Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 28 that sets the authorized strength of Russia’s armed forces at 2,441,630 positions, including 1,550,500 service members.