ANALYSIS: Carney signs in Ankara while Trump says he holds all the cards

The sentence from Washington

Donald Trump was walking to Marine One. A reporter brings up Canada. The answer drops. “We have all the cards.”

He adds a nuance. “I hate to say this.” Then he says it anyway.

Canada is working “very hard.” A deal is close. By his account.

The day before, he had called Mark Carney. “For quite some time,” the prime minister says.

The content stays secret. Both men stay quiet. For now at least.

All the cards. Three words. The formula is known. It has been used before. Before today.

The sentence from Istanbul

A few hours earlier, Carney was speaking. In the middle of the Canadian night. From Istanbul. He had just signed with Erdogan.

His answer was not about cards. It was about time. “We could sign it this afternoon.” Or in months. Or under “another administration.”

A president who says he holds all the cards and a prime minister who says he has no hurry are not playing the same game.

One presses. The other waits. One talks loud. The other signs far away.

One votes on November 3. The other does not. The calendar will choose.

All the cards, except the card of time.

A first in 83 years

Canada and Turkey have 83 years of diplomatic relations. No Canadian head of government had ever made the trip. Carney did. This Thursday.

With Erdogan, he launches a strategic partnership. A three-year action plan. Four pillars. Trade and energy. Defense and dialogue.

Three texts are signed. A memorandum on defense industries. An air transport agreement. A joint statement on energy.

Free trade negotiations begin. They are not finished. The statement says so. In plain words.

What the text promises

An annual strategic dialogue. An annual economic committee. Military consultations. Security consultations. Liquefied natural gas. Civil nuclear power. Critical minerals. The menu is long.

Turkey hosts COP31 in Antalya. From November 9 to 20. Ottawa promises to work with it there. Very closely.

Erdogan is invited to Canada. At a mutually convenient date. The phrase is diplomatic. The invitation is real.

A three-year plan signed with a NATO ally is worth more than a statement of intentions, it is worth an order book.

Ottawa is looking for customers elsewhere. It found a big one. In one day.

Two plants to build

Turkey is planning two nuclear plants. AtkinsRéalis wants to build them. With the Candu reactor. A Canadian reactor. Designed here.

Carney spoke of “good chances.” This Friday. In Istanbul. In front of Turkish business leaders. The word is weighed.

A nuclear project commits decades. The financing. The fuel. Technology transfers. Engineering jobs. In Canada too.

The energy statement encourages nuclear dialogue. It does not name Candu. Carney does it for it. Out loud.

Why it matters against Washington

A nuclear contract in Turkey does not replace the American market. Nothing replaces it. But it changes the conversation. A little bit.

A country that sells reactors to Ankara negotiates differently. It has an order book. It has options. It has time.

That is the whole point of the trip. Reduce dependence. Carney says so. For months now. He is doing it now. In Ankara.

Two plants in Turkey for a Montreal company is not revenge on Trump, it is an insurance policy against him.

The nuclear card is Canadian. It is not in Trump’s hand. It never was.

What Trump actually said

The question was about Mexico. Trump answers “very close.” To a “very good” deal. Then he moves on. “The same thing with Canada.”

Canada is “working very hard.” And “I hate to say this, but we have all the cards.” Three sentences. Thirty seconds.

It was Friday, October 23. On the South Lawn. Before Marine One. The cameras were rolling.

The president speaks of cards. He describes none. Not a single one. He does not need to. He believes.

What is moving behind the scenes

Carney’s advisory committee on U.S. relations met Thursday. The first meeting in more than a month and a half. Sources told CTV.

Dominic LeBlanc was in Ottawa on Friday. Then in New Brunswick. For an infrastructure announcement. The trade minister was opening roads.

A snap deal before the American vote is not ruled out. Hope remains “faint.” The word is the sources’. It is chosen.

A committee that meets after six weeks of silence and a minister opening roads do not describe a capital in a hurry.

Ottawa has put its files back on the table. With calm.

Carney’s exact words

“We don’t care about the timing of that.” The sentence is Carney’s. In Istanbul. Around midnight, Ottawa time. It is clean.

He spells it out.

Canada is ready to negotiate “in good faith.” A deal “in both of our interests.” He is looking at “the interests of Canadians.” Nothing else.

Then the key. “If it has to be months from now or longer than that, or another administration.” Canada will wait. He said it.

Another administration. Two words. He did not correct them.

Before or after November 3

A reporter presses. Does timing matter? Carney answers. Canada would “drop everything.” For a good-faith negotiation.

Before the American elections? “Up to the United States, they’re a little hard to predict.” The sentence is dry. It is accurate.

The president needs a deal before the vote. Not the prime minister. That is the real distribution of cards. It is public.

A negotiator who announces he can wait for another administration has just removed the only card his opponent thought he held, the calendar.

Whoever is in no hurry holds the watch. And the watch is ticking in Washington. Loudly.

Section 338

The 50% duties rest on Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930. A 96-year-old law. Never used for a tariff. Before July.

On July 20, Trump signs three proclamations. Autos, alcohol and dairy. Three grievances. Three lists. Effective August 22.

The targeted products tell everyday life. Hockey sticks. Some wine. Some honey. Some wigs. Some cheeses. All at 50%.

The tariff applies even to USMCA-compliant goods. And it stacks on Section 232 duties. Two layers. One bill.

The USMCA thread

In July, the administration announces a break. It will not renew USMCA for sixteen years. The treaty becomes precarious. So does access.

The Washington talks collapse in August. The tariffs land on the 22nd. Canada retaliates. Dollar for dollar.

Since then, the list keeps moving. September 8. October 23. The 1930 law has become a weekly tool.

A 1930 law pulled out to tax hockey sticks measures less the strength of Washington than the wear on its other tools.

The drawer was empty. Only 1930 was left. Dusty. But legal, they say. A court will tell.

What goes out, what comes in

Friday, a new proclamation. It amends Proclamation 11048. The one on vehicles. Effective October 30.

Off the list: plywood, some paper products, certain machinery, refrigeration equipment, packing crates. And seaweed.

Onto the list: certain valves, carpets, waste products, cocoa powder, vinyl flooring, shampoos.

Seaweed goes out. Cocoa comes in. Nobody explains the logic. The fact sheet speaks of the “public interest.” That is all. Nothing more.

Six products out. Six products in. One week’s notice.

What the fact sheet says

The White House restates its version. Canada supposedly walked away from a near-final deal “this past summer.” Then retaliated on $20 billion of exports.

It adds a ranking. In eighteen months, only two countries retaliated rather than negotiate. China. And Canada.

Being ranked with China is an involuntary compliment. It means Ottawa held. So far, at least.

A list that changes three times in three months, drops seaweed and adds shampoo, protects nothing, it serves as currency.

The list is a hand of cards. It is reshuffled every month. Sometimes sooner.

The Maine exemptions

Susan Collins is a Republican senator. From Maine. She is campaigning. Against Democrat Troy Jackson. The vote is ten days away.

On Friday, she announces exemptions. For blueberry growers. Potato growers. Apple and seaweed producers. She asked Greer and Lutnick for them.

Her sentence is precious. Maine farmers rely on Canadian equipment “either unavailable from American suppliers” or too costly to replace. She writes it.

A Republican senator has just written down Canada’s card. In black and white. Americans need it. She said so first.

What an analyst concludes

Eric Ham analyzes politics for CTV. He rules. “All about politics.” Internal polling must show Collins “in deep, deep trouble.”

Republicans are “sounding the alarm.” Ten days from the vote. The tariffs are causing “tremendous angst” among voters. He says it as is.

Trump is trying to “give his candidates a lifeline.” While voters head to the polls. The analysis is American. Not Canadian.

When a senator from the governing party negotiates exemptions for her blueberries ten days before the vote, the cards have changed sides.

Trump’s cards are called Collins, blueberries and potatoes.

Gellert versus Trump

Gellert Global Group imports cheese. In New Jersey. More than $1.7 billion in annual revenue. Some brie. Some camembert. Some mascarpone.

In 2025, the company imported $71 million of Canadian cheese. No tariff. Thanks to USMCA.

Today it pays 50%. About $40 million a year. It absorbs the cost through the end of 2026.

After that, prices rise. In your store too. On the brie.

On October 20, it filed suit. Court of International Trade. With the Liberty Justice Center. A heavyweight ally.

The argument that lands

The Liberty Justice Center has already won. Against the “reciprocal” tariffs. At the Supreme Court. In February 2026.

Washington has since been refunding about $166 billion. To importers. The precedent weighs heavily. Very heavily.

The complaint says one simple thing. The Canadian measures cited were responses to Trump’s tariffs. Some ruled unlawful. “Retaliation is not discrimination.”

Sara Albrecht runs the center. She sums up: “This case is not about the president. It is about the presidency.”

A president who refunded $166 billion over a misread law and pulls out the 1930 one to tax camembert is playing a cut hand.

The cheese will go to court. The court has already spoken once. It can do so again. It knows the file.

Five hundred jobs in Hamilton

Canadian steel pays 50%. Since June 2025. It was 25% in March 2025. The rate doubled. In three months.

Canada retaliates on $27.6 billion of American imports. On steel. On dairy. On appliances. On farm equipment. On pulp and paper. On electronics.

In Hamilton, Cleveland-Cliffs wants to lay off 500 Stelco workers. The CEO, Lourenco Goncalves, backed Trump’s tariffs. In public.

Mélanie Joly warned him. Reverse it, she says. The industry ministry does not let 500 jobs go. Not without a word. Not in Hamilton.

The embassy fact sheet

On Thursday, the U.S. embassy in Ottawa publishes a fact sheet. It accuses Canadian leaders of interference. In the November 3 vote. Joly is named.

Carney answers from Istanbul.

“There is no merit to these claims.” He says he is “disappointed.” The American envoy sees that as his role. Carney does not.

Canada is “very, very careful.” Not to be seen to interfere.

It has a deep diplomatic presence in the United States. Contacts everywhere. That is its job.

An ambassador who accuses of interference the country whose ministers defend 500 jobs at home turns the word against its meaning, and Ottawa is right.

Defending Hamilton is not meddling in Washington. It is governing.

Erdogan and rights

The partner in Ankara does not share everything. This month, his government carried out several operations. Against the opposition. Against journalists. Against marginalized groups.

Human rights organizations say so. For years. Carney knows it. He signs anyway. Eyes open.

He calls it “values-based realism.” “Engagement in those partnerships does not mean approval.” And: “very few countries in this world have the standards of Canada.”

Anita Anand raised human rights. With her Turkish counterpart. This Thursday.

Carney, for his part, does not say whether he did with Erdogan. He prefers “direct” conversations. Not reported out.

Our reading

We publish this fact in its place. It troubles. A prime minister who praises Canada’s standards and dodges on Erdogan leaves a gap.

Realism has a price. Carney accepted it. He should name it. Not just theorize it. Names matter.

Diversifying away from Trump is right. Doing it without answering on Turkish journalists is less so. Both are true. At the same time.

A three-year partnership with a government that silenced its opponents this month demands a direct answer, and Carney dodged it.

Realism has values, says Carney, and it has a price.

Your own cards

You buy cheese. You buy tools. You buy lumber. You work in steel. In food. In machinery. Every reshuffle passes through your bill.

But you hold cards too. Maine farmers say so. They need your equipment. Your packaging. Your seaweed.

American importers say so in court. They need your cheese. Enough to sue their own president. Their own.

Canada’s cards are not in Ottawa. They are in the fields of Maine. And the warehouses of New Jersey. Where the cheese waits.

What Trump is right to see

Trump is right on one point. Canada needs a deal. Its economy is tied to yours. Very deeply. He knows it.

But a deal before November 3 serves his candidates first. Collins showed it. Ham explained it. The countdown is his.

Maximum pressure works against an opponent in a hurry. Carney chose not to be one. That is his card. It may be enough.

A country negotiating without a watch against a country voting in ten days has fewer cards but more time.

Ottawa’s watch has no election hand. Washington’s does.

What this Friday leaves

A three-year partnership. Two plants in sight. A reshuffled list. A senator pleading for her blueberries. A cheesemonger in court.

And two sentences. “All the cards.” “Another administration.” They crossed over the Atlantic. The same day.

The president told the truth about strength. The prime minister told the truth about time. The two truths do not make a deal.

They make a wait. It is counted in days. Until November 3. Then in years. Perhaps four.

What you should remember

Whoever holds all the cards does not exempt Maine blueberries. Whoever is in no hurry does not sign in Ankara. In principle.

Both did it. Both know why. So do you, now. That is the essential point.

Whoever holds all the cards does not ask to play fast.

Carney signs in Ankara while Trump says he holds all the cards.

And you, who holds the cards when one signs in Turkey and the other exempts blueberries ten days before the vote?

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. I claim analytical clarity, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

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The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a critical, contextual synthesis based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

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