Analysis
Pieces
ANALYSIS: Ankara and the 5% threshold that redefines NATO
On July 7 and 8, 2026, Western defense chiefs gathered in Ankara for a summit that will be remembered, whatever happens in the months…
FACT CHECK: what do we really know about Russia's shell industry
Estonian intelligence estimates Russian shell production at roughly 7 million units per year, or seventeen times the pre-war level, according to a report published…
DECODING: Western sanctions on Russian oil, the questions few are asking
On October 22, 2025, the U.S. Treasury Department made a major move by simultaneously sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia's two largest oil companies.
ANALYSIS: A third of Russian refining offline, what the numbers reveal about the balance of power
One number is sometimes enough to sum up a war of attrition: according to estimates from Macro-Advisory, roughly one third of Russia's refining capacity…
FACT CHECK: Revisiting Yaroslavl in flames, what the numbers confirm
The Yaroslavl refinery suffered a direct strike followed by a fire in late March 2026, according to CNN on March 28, 2026, an event…
DECODING: The state of play on Pyongyang, the quiet supplier of Russia's war
There is a number that, since it was published, has been circulating without really being absorbed by the public: 29,488 munitions containers are reported…
ANALYSIS: Russia's shell industry, one month on, a cold read
A number surfaced at the end of February 2026 and has barely left the conversation among military analysts since: Russian shell production is now…
FACT CHECK: the Russian oil price cap extended to 2027, in five numbers
A Russian presidential decree has confirmed the extension of the oil price cap mechanism through the end of 2027, a decision that mirrors the…
DECODING: the Kremlin and the diplomacy of waiting in three parts
On June 18, 2026, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on Russia to take concrete diplomatic steps to end the war, according to a report…