A third heatwave threatens Spain, Portugal, and soon France

Introduction: the summer that won't let us catch our breath

Another heat wave, already the third

We thought we'd caught a break after the last wave. Bad news: a third heatwave is currently forming over Spain and threatens to reach France within days. According to Ouest-France, Spain is bracing for the return of temperatures near 42°C starting July 3, 2026, a figure that would make even veterans of Mediterranean summers dizzy.

Portugal, for its part, has been placed under a red alert, a level Portuguese authorities only trigger in situations deemed particularly dangerous for public health. This new heat wave confirms that summer 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most grueling of the decade for southern Europe.

Why this column, why now

I am not a climatologist, and I don't claim to be one. But as a columnist who watches what directly touches readers' daily lives, it's hard to ignore a phenomenon that is literally redefining the summer we knew just a decade ago. This column is not a meteorology lesson: it's an attempt to understand what this actually changes for us, here, and for our loved ones over there.

What's striking this year is the frequency. Three major heatwaves in a matter of weeks is no longer an isolated climate accident, it's a trend taking hold.

Portugal under red alert: what it really means

Twelve of eighteen districts under maximum surveillance

According to Euronews, Portugal's meteorological institute IPMA has placed twelve of the country's eighteen districts under red alert from Thursday through Saturday, with temperatures expected between 35°C and 41°C, and up to 44°C in the Tagus valley and the Alentejo. The Portuguese government has declared an official state of alert, a measure that mobilizes additional resources for wildfire prevention and assistance to vulnerable populations.

What particularly worries Portuguese health authorities are nighttime temperatures that aren't dropping below 24°C to 28°C in the Lisbon region. These tropical nights prevent the body from recovering, a major aggravating factor for elderly people and those suffering from chronic illnesses.

A human toll that is already starting to mount

According to Wikipedia and cross-referenced data from several European health bodies, the World Health Organization was already estimating around 1,300 excess deaths in Europe for the single week of June 21-28, 2026, directly linked to extreme heat. In Spain, the Carlos III institute estimated between 212 and 327 deaths attributable to heat for the same period.

These figures are not abstract statistics. They are elderly people living alone in apartments without air conditioning, outdoor workers exposed to direct sun, and children and infants particularly vulnerable to dehydration.

Why this third wave feels like a turning point

A summer stringing together records without letup

According to Le Dauphiné, this new wave could reach up to 45°C in some regions as early as the start of July. What distinguishes 2026 from previous summers is not necessarily a single peak of maximum intensity, but the repetition of extreme episodes within such a short period.

The Wikipedia page devoted to "2026 European heatwaves" confirms that this third wave began forming as early as July 2 in Portugal and Spain, only a few weeks after the previous wave that had already placed 72 French departments under red alert, a historic record for France.

What France's environment minister is saying

According to Le Figaro, Minister Monique Barbut spoke of "strong odds" of extreme heat returning to France between July 6 and 14. This official statement confirms that French authorities are actively preparing for a new heatwave episode, rather than passively waiting for the current wave in Spain and Portugal to naturally spread north.

This governmental anticipation, though insufficient on its own to solve the underlying climate problem, at least represents progress compared with previous summers when alerts often came after critical episodes had already begun.

Spain, the epicenter of the wave before it spreads

The return of 42°C announced for the weekend

According to Ouest-France and Selectra, Spain is concretely bracing for the return of temperatures of 42°C as early as the weekend of July 3. This figure, already extreme in itself, fits into a series of episodes that have marked the country since the start of summer, with southern regions like Andalusia particularly hard hit.

These extreme temperatures are not limited to a passing discomfort: they directly affect agriculture, water availability, and the ability of energy infrastructure to meet increased demand for air conditioning, creating a cycle in which the heat itself worsens the strain on the very resources needed to fight it.

A drought setting in alongside it

According to Météo-Paris, the signs of a new heatwave are already accompanied by early warning signs of persistent drought in several regions of southern Europe. This combination of extreme heat and water shortage creates conditions especially conducive to forest fires, a risk that Spanish and Portuguese civil security services are watching very closely at this time.

The link between heatwave and drought is no coincidence: the two phenomena feed each other in a cycle that makes each summer harder to manage for local authorities and for the most exposed populations.

What this wave will change for France in the coming days

A spread that follows a now-familiar pattern

The pattern has become almost predictable for those familiar with European summer weather: heat first forms over the Iberian Peninsula, before gradually moving north and reaching France a few days later. According to Le Dauphiné, this northward push could hit the southeast and southwest of France particularly hard first.

French authorities, chastened by the previous wave that had already triggered a record number of departments under red alert, appear better prepared this time in terms of preventive communication, even though heat-adaptation infrastructure, such as air conditioning in schools or hospitals, remains largely insufficient in many regions.

The simple actions that make a real difference

Faced with these repeated episodes, basic health recommendations remain the same but deserve to be repeated relentlessly: stay hydrated regularly even without feeling thirsty, avoid physical exertion during the hottest hours, keep homes cool by closing shutters during the day, and above all check in regularly on elderly or isolated people around you.

This last point deserves emphasis: the majority of heat-related deaths involve people living alone, often elderly, who have no one to check on them during the most intense heat peaks.

European tourism facing a changing summer

Vacation habits that must evolve

For millions of European and international tourists who travel to Spain and Portugal every summer, these repeated heatwaves are starting to change how vacations are planned. Some tour operators are already seeing a shift in bookings toward the milder months of May, June, and September, at the expense of peak summer, which is becoming increasingly hard to endure for visitors from milder climates.

This gradual shift in tourist habits could have significant economic consequences for Mediterranean economies that rely heavily on traditional summer tourism, a sector that will need to adapt to a climate that no longer resembles the one of twenty years ago.

Tourist infrastructure put to the test

Hotels, campgrounds, and beach infrastructure must now treat air conditioning and extreme heat management as operational priorities rather than comfort options. This adaptation represents a significant cost for a sector that must simultaneously manage climate pressure and remain price-competitive against fierce international competition.

Regions that manage to adapt fastest to this new climate reality, with redesigned infrastructure and transparent communication toward visitors, could retain a competitive edge over those that continue to operate as if nothing had changed.

What the repetition of these heatwaves reveals about Europe's climate

Three waves in a matter of weeks, a hard signal to ignore

Three major heatwaves within a matter of weeks is no longer just normal weather variability. This frequency, documented by several independent European meteorological bodies, fits into a long-term warming trend that particularly affects the Mediterranean basin, one of the fastest-warming regions in the world according to several climate studies published in recent years.

I remain cautious about drawing direct causal links between a specific episode and global climate change, a complex scientific exercise beyond the scope of this column. But the overall trend of increasing frequency and intensity of heatwaves in southern Europe is, itself, well documented by the scientific community.

Adaptation, more urgent than ever

Faced with this reality, the question is no longer just how to reduce emissions in the long term, but also how to adapt infrastructure, lifestyle habits, and public health systems right now to summers that will increasingly resemble the one the Iberian Peninsula is currently experiencing.

This adaptation concerns governments, which must invest in early-warning systems and resilient infrastructure, just as much as individual citizens, who must factor these new risks into their summer routines.

Neighborhood solidarity, an underrated weapon against the heat

What some Spanish and Portuguese municipalities are already doing

Faced with the recurrence of these episodes, several Spanish and Portuguese municipalities have set up neighborhood watch networks for isolated elderly people, with regular phone calls organized by local social services during heat peaks. These initiatives, though modest on a national scale, show that a close-knit community response can effectively complement broader government measures.

Air-conditioned centers open to the public, often municipal libraries or community centers, also allow people without air conditioning at home to find temporary shelter during the hottest hours of the day.

A model that could spread to other European regions

These local initiatives, tested in southern Europe where experience with extreme heatwaves runs deepest, could serve as a model for other European regions just beginning to face similarly extreme summers, notably in northern France or Belgium, regions historically less prepared for this kind of sustained heat.

Sharing experience between European municipalities on these local climate adaptation issues could speed up the rollout of effective solutions, rather than leaving each region to reinvent its own response to a problem now shared across the entire continent.

Children and vulnerable people, top priority

Why some groups are far more exposed

Infants, young children, pregnant women, the elderly, and people suffering from chronic illnesses such as cardiovascular or respiratory conditions always pay the heaviest price during these extreme heat episodes. Their natural thermoregulation capacity is reduced, making them far more vulnerable to dehydration and heatstroke, sometimes after just a few hours of exposure.

Spanish and Portuguese health authorities have issued a growing number of specific recommendations for these populations, including adjusted schedules for summer school activities and precise guidelines for daycare centers and elderly care facilities.

What parents and caregivers can concretely do

For parents of young children, recommendations include completely avoiding outings between noon and 4 p.m., favoring loose, light-colored clothing, and closely monitoring signs of dehydration such as unusual fatigue or excessive irritability. For caregivers of elderly people, even a brief daily contact can help quickly spot the first signs of heatstroke before it becomes critical.

These simple actions, repeated and built into family habits, represent the most immediate and accessible line of defense against weather episodes we cannot prevent but can learn to manage better collectively.

The hidden economic impact of these repeated waves

Mediterranean agriculture under constant pressure

Beyond the immediate health impact, these repeated heatwaves are placing considerable economic pressure on Mediterranean agriculture. Fruit and vegetable crops, particularly sensitive to extreme temperature swings, are suffering significant yield losses, which could eventually ripple through food prices across the European Union.

Spanish and Portuguese farmers, already grappling with recurring water availability problems, now have to deal with an increasingly unpredictable climate calendar that complicates harvest planning across several consecutive seasons.

The energy bill exploding with air conditioning use

Electricity demand for air conditioning is hitting record highs during these episodes, straining the Spanish and Portuguese national power grids. This increased pressure on energy infrastructure raises the question of grid resilience in the face of increasingly frequent and intense demand peaks, a challenge European energy operators must now factor into their long-term investment plans.

This economic reality, often less visible in media coverage than the direct human toll of heatwaves, nonetheless represents a considerable cumulative cost for southern European economies, year after year.

What scientists recommend for the decades ahead

Rethinking urban planning in the face of extreme heat

Several climate urban planning experts recommend a gradual overhaul of Mediterranean urban spaces, with more green spaces, reflective surfaces, and natural cooling features like public fountains and shaded areas. These architectural adaptations, costly to implement at scale, are nonetheless considered essential to keeping southern European cities livable in the decades ahead.

Some Spanish cities have already begun experimenting with these approaches, with encouraging preliminary results in reducing perceived temperatures in the neighborhoods concerned, although scaling up these measures remains a long-term project.

The importance of improved early-warning systems

Beyond urban planning, the continuous improvement of early-warning systems, like those deployed by the Portuguese institute IPMA or its Spanish equivalent, saves lives by giving populations and authorities the time needed to prepare before the most dangerous heat peaks actually arrive.

These systems, combined with better coordination between neighboring European countries that often share the same heatwaves just days apart, could form the basis of a truly continental response to a phenomenon that knows no national borders.

What this column cannot tell you with certainty

The limits of my analysis as a columnist

I have to be honest about the limits of what I can assert here. I am not a climatologist, and I cannot predict with certainty whether this third heatwave will actually reach France with the same intensity as in Spain and Portugal, nor exactly how long it will last once it settles over French territory.

Weather forecasts, even the most sophisticated ones, always carry a degree of uncertainty, particularly when it comes to predicting the precise evolution of a complex phenomenon several days in advance.

What remains certain despite these uncertainties

What remains certain, however, is that the frequency and intensity of these heatwave episodes in southern Europe follow a trend clearly documented by the meteorological and health bodies cited in this column. This trend, independent of the specific uncertainties surrounding each individual episode, more than justifies heightened vigilance and stronger collective preparation for summers to come.

It is this vigilance, more than panic or denial, that this column hopes to pass on to its readers.

What you can concretely do starting today

Preparing your home before the heat arrives

For readers in France watching this wave approach, a few simple actions can make a real difference: close shutters and curtains first thing in the morning to limit heat entering, ventilate the home only early in the morning or late in the evening, and identify now the coolest rooms in your home to retreat to during the hottest hours.

For those with loved ones currently in Spain or Portugal, a simple message to check in can make a significant difference, particularly for elderly or isolated people who might hesitate to ask for help even if feeling unwell.

Staying informed without giving in to excessive anxiety

Following official weather bulletins, without sinking into permanent anxiety over every forecast, remains the best approach for navigating a summer set to be packed with extreme heat episodes. Pragmatic preparation is always better than either panic or, conversely, complete denial of the phenomenon.

This third heatwave, like the ones before it, will eventually pass. But the question of how many more will follow this summer, and how well our societies will manage to durably adapt to this new climate normal, will remain open well beyond these few days of intense heat.

The role of the media in covering these repeated heatwaves

Informing without giving in to sensationalism

Media coverage of these repeated heatwaves must strike a delicate balance between seriously informing the public of real risks and avoiding sensationalism that would end up desensitizing readers to repeated alerts. Too much repeated alarmism risks producing the opposite of the intended effect, normalizing messages that remain essential to the safety of vulnerable populations.

Spanish and Portuguese media, having dealt with these episodes longer than their northern European counterparts, have over the years developed more effective communication formats, combining precise figures, concrete practical advice, and measured human accounts rather than purely fear-inducing headlines.

What this column tries to do differently

My goal with this piece is not to pile on superlatives about the severity of the situation, but to give readers verified information and concrete actions they can apply starting today. That is, I believe, the most useful role a columnist can play in the face of a phenomenon as recurring as these summer heatwaves.

This pragmatic approach doesn't exclude the seriousness of the situation: it simply seeks to make it actionable rather than paralyzing for the average reader who, above all, wants to protect their family and loved ones.

Conclusion: living with the heat, not just enduring it

A summer redefining our collective habits

This third heatwave currently affecting Spain and Portugal, before possibly reaching France in the coming days, fits into a broader trend we can no longer afford to ignore. Heat records, repeated red alerts, and mounting human tolls force a collective reflection on how our societies must adapt to summers that no longer resemble those of a generation ago.

This adaptation is not solely the responsibility of governments and international institutions. It also involves simple individual actions, neighborhood solidarity, and heightened attention toward the most vulnerable people around us.

What to watch in the coming days

The coming days will tell whether this heatwave actually reaches France with the intensity feared by Minister Monique Barbut, and whether the prevention measures put in place this year will manage to reduce the human toll compared with previous episodes. In the meantime, caution, hydration, and attention to vulnerable loved ones remain the best tools we have against a phenomenon we cannot yet fully control.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I am a general-interest columnist, not a climatologist or professional meteorologist. My approach to heatwave issues systematically favors the human and practical angle over technical scientific analysis, which I leave to qualified experts in this specific field.

I acknowledge a bias toward caution and prevention: I always prefer to emphasize concrete protective actions rather than minimize the real risks these extreme heat episodes pose to vulnerable populations.

What I don't know and my method

I cannot predict with certainty the precise evolution of this heatwave in the coming days, nor its exact intensity once it reaches France. My method consists of cross-referencing information from several recognized meteorological and health sources, explicitly flagging uncertainties rather than presenting forecasts as absolute certainties.

No information contained in this column relies on direct personal testimony on the ground in Spain or Portugal; all data comes from the sources identified below.

Sources

Primary sources

Selectra — July 2026 heatwave, duration and forecasts

Météo-Paris — Signs of a new heatwave and drought

Ouest-France — Spain braces for the return of 42°C

Secondary sources

Le Dauphiné — Up to 45°C, a crushing third heatwave

Euronews — Portugal under red alert and state of alert, July 2, 2026

Euronews — What you need to know about Europe's record-breaking heatwave