Trump at 39% approval, one year after the Big Beautiful Bill

Introduction: what the numbers actually say about Trump in early July 2026

A claim circulating widely

The claim has been circulating widely since early July 2026: Donald Trump's approval rating has reportedly fallen to around 39%, almost exactly one year after he signed his flagship budget law, the Big Beautiful Bill. As a columnist who regularly documents this administration's domestic missteps, I must check this claim with the same rigor I would demand of any other source.

This fact-check aims to establish precisely what the available polling averages show as of July 1, 2026, without exaggeration or understatement, by cross-referencing several aggregators recognized for their rigorous methodology.

Why this figure deserves scrutiny

Polling averages are often cited loosely in public debate, with figures sometimes pulled out of their methodological context. I will therefore examine the available primary sources, notably those from the New York Times and the Silver Bulletin aggregator run by statistician Nate Silver, known for the reliability of his electoral models.

This verification is all the more necessary because the subject touches directly on the democratic evaluation of a presidency whose domestic missteps I regularly criticize, while also acknowledging certain successes on the military and diplomatic front.

Claim #1: Trump's approval rating is at 39%

What the polling aggregators show

Verdict: TRUE, with a methodological nuance. According to the New York Times average as of July 1, 2026, Donald Trump's approval stands at 39%, against 58% disapproval. Nate Silver'sSilver Bulletin, on the same date, puts forward an almost identical figure: 39.4% approval against 57.5% disapproval.

This convergence between two aggregators using different methodologies strengthens the reliability of the 39% figure. This is not an isolated poll but a weighted average incorporating multiple opinion surveys conducted by different pollsters over the preceding weeks.

A negative trend for more than a year

The data show that Trump's approval has been in net negative territory for more than a year, with a trend that has further deteriorated in recent months. This downward trajectory contradicts occasional claims from the president's inner circle that his popularity remains stable or improving.

The verdict on this first point is therefore unambiguous: the 39% approval figure is confirmed by at least two independent, methodologically rigorous sources.

Claim #2: 60% of Americans see Trump as disconnected from priorities

The USA Today-Economist/YouGov poll broken down

Verdict: TRUE. An Economist/YouGov poll, published on June 30, 2026, and conducted from June 26 to 29 among 1,606 American adults with a margin of error of ±3.2 points, found that 60% of respondents believe Donald Trump is not focused on the country's top priorities. This figure was widely reported by USA Today in its July 1, 2026 edition.

This share of six in ten Americans who see their president as disconnected from national priorities is a political signal hard to ignore, particularly since it comes from a polling institute recognized for the rigor of its sampling methodology.

A perception that crosses partisan lines

The same poll shows that 28% of respondents believe the country is on the right track, against 61% who believe the United States is headed in the wrong direction. This overwhelming share of pessimism extends well beyond Trump's traditional opponents, suggesting an erosion of trust that also touches part of his own electoral base.

The verdict is therefore confirmed: this 60% statistic comes from a verifiable and methodologically sound source, with no exaggeration on my part.

Claim #3: a majority disapproves of his handling of health and education

Sector-level numbers that confirm the trend

Verdict: TRUE. Still according to the same Economist/YouGov poll relayed by USA Today, more than half of respondents disapprove of Trump's handling of health care, education, abortion and the environment. These sector-level figures corroborate the general trend observed in the overall approval averages.

This sector-level disapproval is particularly significant on the health care front, a topic that has fueled several of my own criticisms concerning the budget cuts tied to the Big Beautiful Bill, the budget law the president signed a year earlier.

The context of the Big Beautiful Bill's first anniversary

The decline in popularity does indeed coincide with the first anniversary of this budget law, regularly criticized for its cuts to social and health programs. This temporal coincidence, while not proving a direct causal link on its own, fits within a narrative consistent with the available polling data.

The verdict is therefore confirmed on this point as well: the sector-level disapproval figures are real and documented by a recognized polling source.

Claim #4: this decline is due solely to the Big Beautiful Bill

A causal claim that needs serious qualification

Verdict: PARTIALLY TRUE, with a significant methodological caveat. While there is a striking temporal coincidence between the Big Beautiful Bill's first anniversary and this approval decline, none of the sources consulted, neither USA Today nor the Silver Bulletin, establishes a direct and exclusive statistical causal link between this budget law and Trump's eroding popularity.

Other factors likely contribute to this decline, notably the controversies surrounding the Epstein matter, tensions within the Department of Justice, and persistent divisions in the Senate over several of the administration's priority legislative texts.

A web of causes rather than a single one

Political analysts cited in the American press instead point to a web of converging causes: public fatigue after months of judicial controversies, disappointment over unmet promises to lower the cost of living, and persistent concerns about health care access for lower-income households.

A nuanced verdict is therefore warranted here: the Big Beautiful Bill is probably one factor among several, but attributing it as the single, exclusive cause of the observed decline would be an oversimplification the data do not support with certainty.

Claim #5: DOJ legal troubles are also weighing on public opinion

The Epstein context and tensions at the DOJ

Verdict: LIKELY, but not precisely quantifiable. Several news reports, including CNBC's piece dated July 2, 2026, on tensions between former special counsel Jack Smith and the DOJ, along with Democracy Docket's revelations about retaliatory actions against law firms, paint a picture of persistent judicial controversy surrounding the Trump administration.

This climate of judicial controversy, including the Epstein matter and its ongoing developments, likely adds to the list of factors eroding public trust, though no source allows for a precise quantification of exactly how much of that erosion is attributable specifically to these judicial controversies rather than to economic and social concerns.

Necessary methodological caution

As a rigorous columnist, I must acknowledge the limits of what current data can support. Establishing a precise causal link between each specific judicial controversy and the evolution of the approval rating goes beyond the scope of a simple analysis of aggregated polls, however rigorous they may be.

This methodological caution takes nothing away from the seriousness of the documented controversies, but it prevents me from asserting with certainty a precise cause-and-effect link that the available data cannot scientifically demonstrate.

What this fact-check does not allow us to claim

Methodological limits to respect

It would nonetheless be excessive to claim that this decline in popularity is irreversible or that it predicts a precise electoral outcome for upcoming contests. Opinion polls, even aggregated with rigor, capture a snapshot at a given moment and can shift quickly depending on the news cycle, notably on the military and diplomatic fronts where Trump retains firmer support.

I must restate this essential methodological nuance: a 39% approval rating does not mean total unpopularity, and it should not be interpreted as a mechanical indicator of future electoral defeat.

A necessary nuance on the military front

This fact-check focuses specifically on the domestic issues where Trump's approval is declining. On the military front and his stance toward Russia, China, Iran and North Korea, other data suggest more mixed but distinctly different support from the collapse observed on domestic policy issues like health care or education.

This distinction between the two arenas, domestic and international, remains essential to avoid any excessive generalization from the figures presented in this text alone.

Final verdict: the numbers hold up under scrutiny

A set of claims broadly confirmed

At the end of this verification, the full set of figures put forward regarding Trump's approval at 39%, the 60% share who see the president as disconnected from national priorities, and majority disapproval on several sector-level issues, holds up under rigorous examination of the available primary sources. These figures come from polls and aggregators recognized for their methodological reliability.

This fact-check therefore confirms the general validity of the original claim, while adding the methodological nuances necessary to avoid any excessive interpretation of these figures.

An invitation to continued vigilance

I invite you, as always, to verify these figures yourselves against the primary sources cited, rather than relying solely on my own summary. Methodological transparency remains the best safeguard against disinformation, whether it comes from supporters or opponents of the current administration.

This citizen vigilance, applied systematically to political figures circulating in public debate, is in my view one of the most effective defenses against manipulation of public opinion, regardless of which political camp would benefit from it.

Conclusion: solid numbers, a presidency under strain

What to take away from this verification

This fact-check confirms that Donald Trump's approval indeed sits around 39% in early July 2026, a figure corroborated by at least two independent aggregators recognized for their methodological rigor. The 60% share of Americans who see the president as disconnected from national priorities is also confirmed by an Economist/YouGov poll conducted under a transparent methodology.

Taken together, these figures paint the portrait of a presidency under strain on the domestic front, one year after signing a controversial budget law whose effects visibly continue to weigh on American public opinion.

A two-speed presidency

This fact-check also confirms the need to distinguish the judgment on Trump's domestic policy, widely criticized, from that on his international posture, where assessments remain more nuanced. This duality, backed by figures, will likely continue to shape American public debate in the months ahead of upcoming electoral contests.

I will continue checking these figures in the coming months, with the same methodological rigor applied in this text, convinced that only this standard can sustain an honest public debate about the current presidency.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I sign this fact-check as a columnist critical of the Trump administration's domestic missteps, while acknowledging certain successes of its military and diplomatic policy against Russian, Chinese, Iranian and North Korean threats. This verification relied exclusively on verifiable and publicly accessible polling sources.

I have invented no figure and no quote in this text. Every piece of data put forward comes from the primary sources listed below, which I invite you to consult directly.

What I do not know

I cannot predict the future trajectory of these approval figures, nor assess with certainty the long-term electoral impact of this negative trend. Opinion polls remain, by nature, snapshots liable to shift quickly depending on national and international events.

Sources

Primary sources

USA Today, poll on Trump's approval — July 1, 2026

Silver Bulletin, Trump approval average — July 1, 2026

Secondary sources

USA Today, approval rating trend — June 30, 2026

US Polling Data, Trump approval aggregator — July 2026

CNBC, political context of the Trump administration — July 2, 2026

Democracy Docket, DOJ actions under the Trump administration — 2026