TESTIMONY: How Reform UK brought down a prime minister

Introduction: the populist wave that swept over Westminster

An electoral landslide in May

In May, the Reform UK party, led by Nigel Farage, swept local elections across England, winning 1,453 council seats and taking control of 14 councils. These gains came largely at the expense of the Labour Party, which lost 1,496 council seats in the same vote. The result was widely read as an informal referendum on Keir Starmer's leadership, and it directly set in motion the fall that followed a few weeks later.

Reform made particularly strong inroads in post-industrial working-class areas that traditionally voted Labour, as well as among disillusioned former Conservative voters. This double capture — on both the right and left of the traditional political spectrum — illustrates the cross-cutting nature of the populist phenomenon Farage has methodically built for years in the United Kingdom.

The "red wall" shaken again

The so-called "red wall" constituencies — that working-class bastion in northern England historically loyal to Labour — were hit especially hard by this Reform surge. This is not an isolated phenomenon: it fits a trend seen since the 2016 Brexit referendum, when the same regions had already expressed a massive rejection of the traditional political establishment, whether Conservative or Labour.

This electoral shift immediately fueled internal panic within Labour, with several MPs believing that without a quick change of leadership, the party risked an even worse rout at the next general election, due no later than July 2029.

Let's call it what it is: what Reform UK pulled off in May was not a simple local electoral breakthrough. It's proof that a simplistic anti-immigration message can still, in 2026, shake traditional parties more than a century old. That's alarming, and it should alarm anyone committed to Western democratic stability.

A political class in a state of shock bears witness

"It has frightened all of British politics"

Political columnist Polly Toynbee summed up the scale of the shock caused by Reform's rise in unambiguous terms: "That has frightened all of British politics, particularly the Labour Party." She adds: "A sense of emergency about that has led to them removing a man who is very decent, tries his best, but is incredibly unpopular." This testimony captures well the internal logic that led to Starmer's fall — not a grave misdeed, but an existential fear of a rising populist rival.

This climate of panic is not confined to Labour. According to several analysts cited in coverage of this crisis, some polls now suggest Farage himself could become the next British prime minister — a scenario that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago, but which fits a broader trend of rising far-right parties across Europe.

Economic anger turned political

Analyst John McTernan attributes this populist rise to deep, lasting economic frustration: "If you hadn't had a pay raise in 20 years, you might be getting angry. And that anger — which I think is righteous anger — turns itself on the government, and the governing class." In his view, this anger is rooted in the combined aftereffects of the 2008 financial crisis and Brexit, two successive economic shocks that left millions of Britons feeling abandoned by their successive leaders.

McTernan sums up the situation this way: "This is a period in which Britain has done the most harm to itself, by leaving the European Union." An analysis that reframes Reform UK's rise not as an isolated anomaly, but as the logical consequence of a decade of economic stagnation and accumulated political disillusionment.

This economic testimony deserves to be taken seriously, even as I refuse to excuse Farage's anti-immigration rhetoric. You don't fight populism by sneering at the anger that feeds it — you fight it by finally tackling the structural causes of that anger, something neither the Conservatives nor Labour have managed since 2016.

Andy Burnham, the unlikely antidote

A victory that surprised everyone

On June 18, Andy Burnham, former mayor of Greater Manchester, won a by-election in the constituency of Makerfield, in suburban Manchester, with 55% of the vote, beating the Reform UK candidate, Robert Kenyon, by more than 9,000 votes. The result surprised many observers, who had expected a far tighter race in a region where Reform had just won every seat on the local council.

Toynbee praised the performance as proof that one politician still seems able to hold back the Reform wave in these areas: "He beat [Reform] overwhelmingly, in a place where they had just recently won all of the local council seats. So it seems that Andy Burnham is the only man who has the touch in areas like that, to take on Reform UK."

"Manchesterism" as a political answer

Burnham built his reputation on an approach he himself calls "Manchesterism" — a blend of business-friendly initiatives combined with tighter public control over essential services. This hybrid formula, neither purely left-wing nor openly pro-market, seems to have found a particular resonance among working-class voters disillusioned with both major traditional parties.

His strong local roots and his reputation as a pragmatic manager, forged during his years as mayor of Greater Manchester, have made him a figure capable of winning back voters tempted by Reform, without abandoning Labour's core values — a balance few other figures in the party currently seem able to embody.

If Labour has any chance of slowing Reform UK, it rests largely on credible local figures like Burnham, not on op-eds from Paris or London denouncing populism from an ivory tower. Politics is won in constituencies, not in commentary pages.

A party overtaken by its own base

Labour facing its historic electorate

Reform UK's breakthrough in traditional working-class constituencies is a particularly serious alarm bell for Labour, a party historically founded on the support of industrial working classes. Seeing these same voters shift toward a far-right party led by a former commodities broker like Farage illustrates the scale of the trust breakdown between Labour and its historic base.

Some critics within the party link this loss of support to specific policy choices made by Starmer, notably his positions on the Gaza conflict and his cuts to social benefits, which are said to have alienated part of the party's progressive wing without winning over more economically conservative voters.

A strategic dilemma with no easy solution

This tension places Labour in a difficult strategic bind: toughen its stance on immigration to regain ground against Reform, at the risk of further alienating its progressive base, or stick to a more moderate line, at the risk of continuing to lose ground in working-class regions. Starmer had tried to adopt a tougher immigration stance without managing to slow Reform's advance, a failure that directly contributed to his downfall.

This dilemma will not disappear with Starmer's departure. Whoever succeeds him, Labour will need to find a credible synthesis between these two electoral poles, or risk seeing Reform UK continue its advance in future national elections.

Labour finds itself caught in a trap largely of its own making: unable to choose between wooing back its old working-class base and reassuring its urban progressive wing. Until that choice is made clearly, Reform UK will keep thriving in that political no man's land.

Wes Streeting steps aside, Burnham takes charge

An unexpected strategic rallying

Wes Streeting, former Health secretary initially seen as Burnham's main potential rival for the Labour leadership, surprised many observers by announcing his support for Burnham rather than entering the race himself. He explained the decision this way: "After extensive discussions with Andy in recent days, I am convinced that his leadership will provide a place for those ideas; he is dedicated to fostering an inclusive party that draws from our best political traditions and can win the battle against nationalism."

Streeting added a call for unity over internal division: "Instead of spending the summer focusing on minor differences, we can roll up our sleeves and help him bring about the change our party and country require." This rallying could allow Burnham to run essentially unopposed, speeding up the succession process.

Angela Rayner adds her political weight

Angela Rayner, former Labour deputy prime minister and a popular figure within the party, also threw her support behind Burnham. Her backing considerably strengthens Burnham's position, given that Rayner played a central role in Labour's winning 2024 election campaign and retains significant influence among many party MPs.

This quick wave of support gathering around Burnham, only days after his Makerfield win, suggests the party wants to avoid at all costs a prolonged internal fight that could leave the field open to Reform UK over the summer, a period traditionally quieter in terms of political media attention.

This swift rallying around Burnham is no coincidence — it's a collective survival instinct. Labour has understood that a drawn-out leadership battle would be an unexpected gift to Farage. For once, this party seems to have learned something from its past mistakes.

The specter of Farage still looms

Trump's inconvenient "friend"

Nigel Farage is described in coverage of this crisis as an "on-again, off-again friend" of American president Donald Trump, a relationship that illustrates transatlantic ideological ties between certain right-wing populist currents. This closeness, real but fluctuating, feeds the concerns of many European analysts about a possible strategic convergence between British and American populist movements.

This ambiguous relationship with Trump also complicates Farage's position on the international stage: too close to Washington to reassure some Europhile voters, but not aligned enough with every American position to fully satisfy his most nationalist base. This internal tension nonetheless remains secondary to the effectiveness of his anti-immigration message on the British electoral ground.

A threat that goes beyond Labour alone

While the current crisis directly affects Labour, the threat posed by Reform UK extends far beyond that one party. The Conservatives themselves, some of whose voters Reform has also captured, must now contend with a populist rival that has established itself as an unavoidable electoral force across the entire British political spectrum.

This fragmentation of the traditional political landscape into three competing poles — Labour, Conservatives, and Reform — considerably complicates any reliable forecast for the next general election, and could lead to unprecedented parliamentary scenarios, including potentially a minority government or an unlikely coalition.

Farage isn't just a problem for Labour. He's a problem for British democracy itself, since his success rests largely on the gross oversimplification of complex economic and migration issues. The West doesn't need more Farage — it needs leaders capable of explaining complexity, not exploiting it.

What this crisis reveals about Europe

A phenomenon that goes beyond British borders

Reform UK's rise cannot be understood in isolation from the broader European context, marked by the advance of similar populist forces in several countries across the continent. This transnational dynamic illustrates a shared fragility among Western democracies in the face of simplistic rhetoric on immigration and national identity, exploiting real economic frustrations that traditional parties have too often failed to address.

The United Kingdom, already institutionally cut off from the European Union since Brexit, finds itself living through a particularly acute version of this phenomenon, without the European coordination mechanisms that, elsewhere on the continent, sometimes allow for pooled responses to the rise of the extremes.

A test for Western democratic resilience

Labour's ability to contain Reform UK's advance, notably through figures like Burnham, thus stands as a significant test for the broader resilience of Western democracies against populist movements. A British failure could serve as a warning sign, or conversely as a cautionary example, for other traditional European parties facing similar electoral dynamics.

This testimony of a British political crisis therefore extends far beyond national borders: it questions the West's collective capacity to respond to the economic and social challenges that feed populism, without giving in to the simplistic solutions offered by figures like Farage.

What is playing out at Westminster is not just a British quarrel. It's a preview of what awaits other Western democracies if they keep ignoring the economic anger of their working classes. The West would do well to watch this British lesson closely.

What activists' testimony reveals on the ground

Disoriented Labour activists

On the ground, several longtime Labour Party activists describe a sense of disorientation at the speed with which Reform UK managed to capture voters they had considered secure for generations. This rapid shift, documented by May's local election results, reveals a structural fragility that many within the party refused to admit before this electoral rout.

This activist disorientation comes alongside an internal reckoning over Labour's communication strategies, seen as too technocratic and disconnected from the everyday concerns of voters in working-class regions. Several internal voices are now calling for a more direct, more personal message, along the lines of what Andy Burnham has offered since his years as mayor of Greater Manchester.

Farage, an opponent who isn't slowing down

Despite his candidate's poor showing in Makerfield, Nigel Farage continues to benefit from a favorable national momentum, driven by persistent economic discontent and widespread distrust of traditional institutions. This testimony confirms that Burnham's victory, though significant, is only one battle won in an electoral war that promises to be long and uncertain for Labour.

Party strategists know that Reform UK retains a solid electoral base in several regions of the country, and that Burnham's personal popularity alone probably won't be enough on its own to durably reverse this dynamic without quick, concrete results on the economic and social front.

This testimony from the ground confirms what I sensed from the start of this crisis: a single electoral victory, even a symbolically powerful one, never erases years of accumulated disillusionment. Labour won a battle in Makerfield. The war against Farage has only just begun.

Conclusion: a fragile victory for Labour

Burnham, last line of defense or lasting solution?

Reform UK's advance directly precipitated Starmer's fall and propelled Andy Burnham into position as the near-certain favorite for the Labour leadership. His convincing win in Makerfield gives the party a breath of air, but it does nothing to resolve the deep structural tensions that allowed Reform to emerge as a major political force in the United Kingdom.

A reprieve, not a definitive victory

Toynbee herself warns this reprieve could be short-lived: "For Labour, Burnham will be the last throw of the dice." This phrase sums up the stakes well: Burnham may represent Labour's last credible card to contain Reform UK, but nothing guarantees that card alone will be enough to durably reverse an electoral dynamic that has been building for years.

This testimony of a British political crisis ends on an open question, and that may be the most honest conclusion possible: Burnham can slow Reform UK down. Nothing suggests he can, alone, reverse a decade of accumulated democratic disillusionment since Brexit.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Editorial positioning

This testimony holds a clear editorial line: defense of Western democratic institutions against the rise of populist movements, including Reform UK. The columnist acknowledges the real economic causes behind this rise without excusing its anti-immigration rhetoric. This positioning carries an owned judgment, not a façade of neutrality.

Methodology and sources

The facts, figures, and quotes in this text come from verified reporting, notably by Al Jazeera and NPR, including direct statements from columnist Polly Toynbee, analyst John McTernan, and Wes Streeting. No fact has been invented or extrapolated. Electoral figures (council seats, the Makerfield results) come directly from the source reporting.

Factual limits of this file

Future voting intentions and projections about a potential candidacy of Nigel Farage for prime minister are based on opinion polls cited in the sources, which by nature carry a margin of uncertainty and do not constitute definite predictions.

Sources

Primary sources

Why has Keir Starmer resigned as UK prime minister and who will take over — Al Jazeera, June 22, 2026

Starmer resigns, paving way for a seventh prime minister in ten years — NPR, June 22, 2026

Secondary sources

Coverage of Reform UK's rise and Labour's crisis — The Guardian International

Analysis of European and British populism — Foreign Policy

International coverage of the British political crisis — The Epoch Times

International tracking of Reform UK's rise — WION