Mr. Trump, even your reddest strongholds are starting to doubt

Introduction: an erosion no longer confined to Democratic territory

A letter to a president losing ground everywhere

Mr. President, I am writing this open letter as the latest state-by-state approval numbers, published in late June 2026, show something even your most loyal supporters now struggle to deny: your approval rating is slipping in strongholds you once considered locked in. According to data compiled by USA Today and its aggregator Civiqs, your national disapproval rate stands at 36%, with state-by-state figures telling a far more troubling story for your side than the national headlines suggest.

It isn't just the historically Democratic strongholds disapproving of you, which would be expected and politically unremarkable. What worries your own strategists is the measurable erosion in states you won comfortably in 2024, where Kentucky, Florida, Ohio, and even Texas are showing signs of electoral fatigue ahead of the November 2026 midterms.

The number that should worry you most

According to Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, your net approval stood at -17.8 as of July 3, 2026, a slight improvement from the previous week's -18.9, but still a deeply negative figure for a president at the midpoint of his second term. The New York Times, for its part, put your approval at 39% against 58% disapproval as of July 1, figures almost exactly matched by the Silver Bulletin itself at 39.4% against 57.5%.

These national numbers, worrying as they are for your administration, mask an even more revealing reality: the geography of your support is shrinking, state by state, including in territories your campaign team considered unshakable fortresses as recently as eighteen months ago.

Kentucky, a symbol of a silent collapse

From +23 to zero: the fall of a state that was never supposed to doubt

Take Kentucky, Mr. President. According to a Newsweek analysis published in late June 2026, your net approval in that state dropped from +23 points at the start of your second term to a neutral rating of zero by mid-2026, completely wiping out the political cushion you once had in a state considered deeply conservative. That's a 23-point drop in under eighteen months, a fall that is anything but trivial for a state where your party relies on a comfortable margin to secure its congressional seats.

Other analyses, notably those cited in Facebook posts referencing Civiqs data, put your Kentucky slide even lower, at -4, a slightly different figure that nonetheless confirms the same underlying trend: a once-solid state now tipping into complete political uncertainty.

Idaho and Wyoming, your last refuges, are also eroding

Even your most solid strongholds aren't spared. Wyoming, your most favorable state with net approval that once reached +47, now sits around +24 or +25 points depending on the aggregator, a drop of nearly half. Idaho, which showed +34 at the start of your term, now plateaus around +11 to +13, while West Virginia has fallen from +35 to roughly +13 or +15.

These declines in your most loyal states don't mean you're losing the majority there, far from it. But they signal a widespread erosion touching the entire American political spectrum, from Democratic strongholds to the deepest Republican fortresses, with no territorial exception.

The swing states, your real electoral nightmare

Florida, Ohio, Nevada: the flip of once-won territory

The most dangerous decline for your party is playing out in the swing states. According to data reported by Yahoo News and Newsweek, Florida went from a net approval of +9 points at the start of your term to -11 or -13 points by mid-2026. Ohio, another state you considered consolidated, fell from +8 to -13 or -14 points, while Nevada went from a neutral position to -21 points, one of the sharpest declines in the entire country.

Pennsylvania, the quintessential swing state, slid from -3 to -15 points, and Wisconsin fell from -4 to -14 points. North Carolina, once neutral, now shows -13 points, while Arizona sits at -11 and Georgia at an alarming -22 points according to the same analyses.

What this means for your party in November

These numbers aren't just abstract statistics, Mr. President. They represent congressional seats flipping, governorships becoming competitive, and a Republican majority in the House, and potentially the Senate, that could evaporate in November 2026 if this trend continues. Every point lost in these states represents tens of thousands of voters who trusted you in 2024 and who today are hesitating, doubting, or outright switching to the other side.

The fact that your approval is now negative in every single swing state tracked by the aggregators represents, according to several analysts cited by Newsweek, a warning signal rarely seen at this stage of a presidential term, particularly for a party currently controlling both chambers of Congress.

Health care cuts, a slow-acting poison

500,000 New Yorkers losing their health insurance

Part of this erosion, Mr. President, traces directly back to the concrete consequences of your flagship law, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed nearly a year ago. According to a Guardian investigation published July 1, 2026, nearly 500,000 New Yorkers with moderate incomes began losing their health coverage on July 1, a direct consequence of the end of federal funding for New York State's Essential Plan, an Obamacare-derived program that covered people earning between 200% and 250% of the federal poverty line.

Dr. Adam Aponte, CEO of the East Harlem Council for Human Services, summed up the situation bluntly: "This is just the tip of the iceberg, because come January, all the other impacts of HR1 will start to be felt." He added that most of the newly uninsured will likely turn to hospital emergency rooms, unable to afford coverage on the private market.

A cost running into the billions, a bill coming due

Your law will result, according to projections cited by the Guardian, in a $911 billion cut to federal health spending, while adding $3.4 trillion to the federal deficit by 2034. Nationally, 10 million more Americans are expected to lose health coverage over the next decade, a figure that goes far beyond New York State alone and potentially touches voters in every district in the country.

In New York alone, up to 1.1 million people could lose coverage by 2034, and more than 250,000 residents of New York City alone will see their situation affected. Insurers, for their part, are seeking premium increases of up to 52.1% for some plans, an increase few moderate-income families will be able to absorb without sacrificing other essential needs.

One in ten Americans sees the country on the wrong track

The poll that should alarm your campaign team

A poll published June 30, 2026 by Newsweek found that only 28% of Americans believe the country is broadly headed in the right direction, against 61% who believe it's on the wrong track. That figure marks a slight decline from the previous week, when 31% of respondents said they were optimistic about the country's trajectory, a sign of confidence eroding gradually rather than abruptly, which makes the phenomenon all the harder for your communications team to fight.

Another USA Today poll, published July 1, 2026, found that 60% of Americans believe you are not focused on the country's top priorities, a figure reflecting cross-partisan frustration rarely seen to this degree during your second term. This sentiment cuts across traditional partisan lines and touches even part of your historic voter base.

Erosion within your own camp

Even more troubling for your administration, several analyses point to measurable erosion within your own coalition. According to data cited by Lincoln Square, the percentage of Republicans expressing strong approval of your presidency fell from 52% to 43%, while the proportion of Republicans who believe the economy has deteriorated under your leadership jumped from 13% to 28%. Among young Republican voters, the decline reportedly reaches 23 points, a signal that even your electoral base is no longer immune to doubt.

This internal erosion, if confirmed in the coming months, would represent a phenomenon rarely seen for a president at this stage of his term, when unconditional base support usually serves as the last line of defense against a general collapse in approval ratings.

The geopolitical backdrop that does nothing for your domestic image

Iran, inflation, and the cost of living weigh on your record

According to USA Today's analysis published June 30, 2026, your approval rating remains weighed down by several compounding factors: negotiations with Iran, rising gas prices, rising food prices, and more broadly the cost of living that continues to weigh on the daily lives of millions of American families. Unlike abstract geopolitical debates, these economic issues hit voters' wallets directly and weigh heavily on their perception of your presidential management.

It's telling that even your diplomatic or military successes abroad fail to offset this negative domestic economic sentiment. American voters, as polls have shown consistently for decades, judge their presidents above all on their personal finances, well ahead of foreign policy matters, however important those may be on the international stage.

An administration caught between two fires

Your administration thus finds itself caught between two conflicting pressures: on one hand, maintaining a firm posture on the international stage against Iran, Russia, and China, which demands resources and sustained attention; on the other, responding to the immediate economic concerns of American voters, who are primarily worried about grocery and gas prices. This tension partly explains why your communications team is struggling to turn your diplomatic successes into measurable political gains in national polls.

The challenge for your team, with four months left before the midterms, will be to demonstrate that your economic management will produce concrete results before voters head to the polls, a race against the clock that, at this stage, looks far from won.

Republican strategists are starting to worry openly

A fragile majority that could flip in November

According to several analyses relayed by the American press, your own party strategists are starting to voice open concern about the durability of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives, a majority that remains historically thin and vulnerable to any significant electoral swing. With negative net approval in practically every swing state tracked by the aggregators, your party's margin for error is shrinking dangerously as November approaches.

Midterm elections are traditionally difficult for the party in power, a well-documented historical phenomenon affecting nearly every modern American president. But the scale of the current erosion, combined with persistent economic difficulties and health care cuts that are just beginning to be concretely felt, could turn a usual difficulty into an electoral rout for your party.

The Epstein factor still hanging over your administration

Adding to this economic erosion is another, more political factor still weighing on your image: the ongoing handling of the Epstein case, on which several Democratic members of Congress are already preparing investigations in anticipation of a possible return to the majority after November. This case, combined with economic difficulties, creates a particularly unfavorable political cocktail for your administration ahead of a crucial electoral deadline.

The combination of these economic and political factors explains why some observers already describe the current situation as a perfect storm for your party, a convergence of unfavorable circumstances that has historically rarely spared parties in power during American midterm elections.

Women, an electorate slipping away fast

A ten-point drop in a month among female voters

An analysis of Fox News and CBS/YouGov polling, covering the previous summer period but with trends confirmed in 2026, already showed a sharp drop in your net approval among women, falling from -16 to -21 points within a single month. This rapid deterioration among a decisive electorate in several swing states continues to weigh heavily on your electoral chances as November 2026 approaches.

Gallup data, cited by several analysts, put your overall approval at 36% with disapproval at 60%, a figure that masks an even more troubling reality: even approval within your own party fell by seven points to reach 84%, its lowest level of your entire second term.

Independents, November's silent arbiters

Growing negativity among unaffiliated voters

Independent voters, who traditionally determine the outcome of midterm elections, are expressing increasingly unfavorable views of you. According to several polls compiled in spring 2026, your approval among independents plateaued at just 20%, an extremely low figure that shows just how much your electoral coalition now depends almost exclusively on your most loyal Republican base.

This increased reliance on a narrower base represents a major strategic risk for your party, particularly in swing states where independents often provide the margin of victory or defeat between the two major parties in federal elections.

The weight of inflation on the electoral scale

The price of groceries, an issue that transcends ideology

According to Quinnipiac University data, your handling of the economy hit a historic low in spring 2026, with only 33% approval against 64% disapproval, the lowest rate recorded since the start of your two combined presidential terms. This deterioration comes amid rising oil prices and persistent tensions with Iran, two factors directly fueling the economic anxiety of American households.

Even among Republican voters, only 16% believe your administration has significantly helped with the cost of living, a dramatic drop from the 49% who held that view in April 2024, before you even returned to the White House.

Young voters, a generation turning away

Early disillusionment among Generation Z voters

Data on young Republican voters reveal a 23-point drop in their support, an alarming figure for a party that must urgently renew its electoral base over the long term. This early disillusionment among a generation still forming its political identity could have lasting consequences well beyond the 2026 midterm elections alone.

The most clear-eyed Republican strategists acknowledge that the loss of trust among young voters represents a structural challenge that goes far beyond the immediate electoral cycle, requiring deep reflection on the party's priorities and message for decades to come.

Governors, the first witnesses to local discontent

Virginia and New Jersey, early barometers for November

The gubernatorial elections scheduled for this fall in Virginia and New Jersey will serve as an early test of the real scale of your electoral erosion. In Virginia, your approval stood at around 45% according to the latest figures, down from the previous month, while 52% of voters disapprove of your presidential management in that pivotal state.

These gubernatorial races, though distinct from the federal midterms, are traditionally read by political analysts as leading indicators of the national electoral mood, offering a valuable preview of what could happen in November for the entire US Congress.

Historical comparisons that should worry you

A second term harder than the first, on this specific point

A notable fact several analysts have flagged: your current approval remains, on some indicators, slightly higher than at a comparable point in your first term, which adds an important nuance to an otherwise bleak analysis. However, the speed of the recent erosion in swing states, and even in certain red strongholds, has no direct equivalent in your previous historical data.

This combination of a slightly better starting point but a faster decline trajectory creates an unprecedented political situation that your campaign strategists are struggling to interpret using the traditional historical models applied in previous electoral cycles.

What American electoral history teaches about these cycles

Midterms, a rendezvous rarely kind to the party in power

American electoral history shows that the party controlling the White House almost systematically loses seats during midterm elections, a phenomenon observed for decades and affecting virtually every president regardless of party affiliation. This historical trend isn't, however, an absolute inevitability, as some presidents have managed to limit the damage through economic management perceived positively by voters.

The challenge for your administration is precisely to reverse this unfavorable dynamic before voters go to the polls, a task made harder by the accumulation of negative signals already documented in this letter, from the slide in red strongholds to the health care cuts that are only just beginning to produce their concrete effects.

The precedents of Clinton, Obama, and Biden facing their own midterms

The examples of Bill Clinton in 1994, Barack Obama in 2010, and Joe Biden in 2022 all illustrate, to varying degrees, the structural difficulty a party in power faces during midterm elections, particularly when the economy and the cost of living dominate American voters' concerns. Each of these precedents led to a significant loss of congressional seats, durably shifting the legislative balance for the remainder of the presidential term in question.

Your current situation, marked by simultaneous erosion in red strongholds and swing states, shows troubling similarities with these historical precedents, while adding an extra dimension tied to health care cuts whose effects are only just beginning to materialize concretely for millions of American families.

Conclusion: a letter meant as a warning, not a condemnation

What these numbers should tell you

Mr. President, this letter isn't meant to condemn you personally, but to remind you of a reality the numbers, dry as they are, can no longer hide: your electoral coalition is eroding, slowly but surely, in territories you long considered secure. From Kentucky to Florida, through Ohio and Nevada, the message from American voters seems to converge on the same conclusion: patience has limits, even among your most loyal supporters.

The health care cuts affecting hundreds of thousands of New York families today, combined with persistent inflation and widespread economic anxiety, paint a picture even your most skillful messaging will struggle to reverse before the November 2026 midterms.

A final word before the electoral deadline

You have four months left, Mr. President, to try to reverse a trend that, at this stage, appears deeply entrenched in American public opinion. History will judge whether your administration heeded this electoral warning or, instead, persisted down a path that a growing number of Americans, including in your own strongholds, now consider contrary to their fundamental interests.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I sign this open letter as a columnist committed to democratic transparency and political accountability, with an editorial line clearly critical of the Trump administration's domestic management, while acknowledging the firmness of its military posture against international threats like Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea. This letter relies exclusively on polling data published by recognized aggregators and verifiable journalistic investigations.

I had no access to any non-public internal Republican party poll nor any private communication from the administration. All data cited comes from public sources, notably USA Today, Newsweek, Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin, and the Guardian, dated late June and early July 2026.

What I don't know

I don't know whether this erosion will hold through the November 2026 elections, nor the exact scale of its impact on the composition of the US Congress. I also don't know whether major geopolitical or economic events will substantially alter this trajectory before the election. I commit to never presenting a projection as a certainty.

Sources

Primary sources

USA Today / The List Wire — President Trump's approval rating by state heading into July 2026, June 30, 2026

Secondary sources

USA Today — 60% say Trump isn't focused on top issues in latest poll, July 1, 2026

Silver Bulletin — Trump Approval Rating: Latest Polls, July 3, 2026

US Polling Data — Trump Approval Ratings

The Guardian — 'Tip of the iceberg': nearly 500,000 New Yorkers lose health insurance due to Trump cuts, July 1, 2026

Newsweek — Majority of Americans Say Trump Isn't Focused on Key Problems, June 30, 2026