FACT CHECK: Marceau’s 28th place and Girard’s Alberta study don’t measure Quebec

Twenty-eighth

A line on the radio

One ranking crossed the room, then the airwaves: twenty-eighth.

It isn’t a lie. It isn’t a calculation either. Not one that anybody has published, anyway.

On September 24, 2026, at the economic debate hosted by the Board of Trade of Metropolitan Montreal, Parti Québécois candidate Nicolas Marceau put an independent Quebec in 28th place in the world for GDP per capita, from its very first day. Somewhere near France or Japan, he added, according to La Presse.

In the room, people jot notes on the corner of a program. In cars, Montreal’s 98.5 FM carries the debate live. One number goes by, then another. Nobody has time to check.

One room. One radio. Two numbers.

A rank without a table

So I checked, with public data.

Provisional finding: 28th is neither false nor proven. It depends entirely on the measure and the list, and neither one was named.

The figure Eric Girard fired back is accurate. It just isn’t about Quebec.

A rank without its list is still a promise.

Five spokespeople, one room

Thursday evening, September 24

The debate ran from 6:30 to 8 p.m. in downtown Montreal, according to the Board of Trade. The five main parties each sent their economy spokesperson.

Eric Girard, finance minister and candidate for the governing Coalition Avenir Québec. Nicolas Marceau, a former finance minister, running for the Parti Québécois, which leads in the polls. Michel Leblanc for the Quebec Liberal Party. Alexandre Leduc for Québec solidaire. Adrien Pouliot for the Conservative Party of Quebec.

La Presse posted its account at 11:02 p.m.

Five voices. Ninety minutes. Not one table on the screen.

Three numbers in the air

Marceau promised that Quebec would be the richest country ever born, at the moment of its birth. Girard answered that the project was bad for the economy, and he brought up Brexit.

Then Girard pulled out a University of Calgary study: a separate Alberta would see its GDP shrink by 2% to 10% over five years, according to La Presse.

Leblanc talked about three years of uncertainty in front of head offices. Leduc said he was convinced GDP per capita would rise. Pouliot promised that a Conservative caucus holding the balance of power would block any referendum.

After the debate, Leblanc faulted Marceau for leaving his country project out of his closing statement. Leduc regretted an exchange that had turned into a referendum fight.

A promise can’t be checked. Two numbers can.

Ninety minutes of debate. Two numbers to redo.

Canada, thirtieth

The World Bank list

Start with what La Presse checked itself. On Thursday, Canada ranked 30th, according to World Bank data.

That holds up. In the World Bank database, updated July 13, 2026, Canada’s GDP per capita comes to US$55,698 for 2025, in current dollars. Take the most recent value for each economy, and Canada sits in 30th place out of 214.

At purchasing power parity, in the same database, Canada shows 66,746 international dollars. Still 30th, out of 203.

Thirty. Twice. Confirmed.

Two measures, the same 30th

Two measures, one rank. It’s a handy coincidence. It makes the comparison possible.

So here is my reading, and it isn’t about sovereignty. Neither number thrown out on Thursday was calculated for Quebec. The first has no public source. The second is about Alberta.

A rank without a list isn’t a number.

Canada’s 30th checks out. Quebec’s 28th doesn’t, yet.

Minus 9.6%

The gap the ISQ publishes

To place Quebec on that list, you first need to know where it stands against Canada.

The Institut de la statistique du Québec, the province’s statistics agency, publishes exactly that. In 2024, Quebec’s real GDP per capita was C$53,812, in chained 2017 dollars. Canada’s was C$59,529.

That leaves Quebec 9.6% below the Canadian average.

The math is simple. So is the result. Quebec produces less per person than Canada does.

Thirty-second in dollars

Now apply that gap to the World Bank figure for Canada. It’s an approximation, and I’m flagging it as one: the ISQ gap is measured in constant dollars, not current ones.

In current dollars, Quebec would land around US$50,350 per person. In current dollars, it would sit just above the United Arab Emirates and just below Andorra. In current dollars, it would rank 32nd.

Not 28th. Thirty-second.

To reach 28th on that list, Quebec would have to pass Hong Kong, at US$56,983. In other words, post a GDP per capita 2.3% higher than Canada’s.

The ISQ has it 9.6% lower. So much for market prices.

At market prices, Quebec trails Canada. It doesn’t lead it.

Thirty-eighth in purchasing power

Same rule, the other measure

Purchasing power parity corrects for price differences between countries. Most economists prefer it for comparing living standards.

Applied to Canada’s PPP figure, the same 9.6% gap gives Quebec about 60,340 international dollars per person.

Just below Czechia. Just above Spain. In 38th place.

The price correction helps countries where living costs less. It doesn’t work miracles. Here, it works for Canada as a whole, not for Quebec alone.

Thirty-eighth.

That’s nothing to be ashamed of. It’s a respectable rank. It just isn’t 28th.

7.8% above Canada

To be 28th on that list, Quebec would have to pass Australia, at 71,934 international dollars. That is 7.8% more than Canada as a whole.

Quebec nearly 8% richer than Canada in purchasing power? No official statistic says so.

And yet Marceau may not be wrong on the substance. There is a serious argument for adjusting these numbers. It deserves a look before anyone concludes.

Thirty-second or thirty-eighth. Never 28th, on this list.

Twenty-fourth among states

Monaco, Bermuda and the rest

Because the list matters as much as the measure.

The World Bank ranking mixes countries and territories. On the full list, Monaco and Liechtenstein come out on top. On the full list, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, the Isle of Man, the Channel Islands, the Faroe Islands and Greenland all rank ahead of Canada. On the full list, some values date from 2023 or 2024.

Keep only sovereign states, and the picture changes. Among states alone, Canada climbs to 22nd in current dollars and 24th in purchasing power.

A rank that moves with the list

And Quebec, with the same 9.6% gap? It would be 24th in current dollars. And 32nd in purchasing power.

There’s the moving benchmark. Depending on the measure and the list, the same Quebec runs from 24th to 38th.

Twenty-eighth falls inside that range. That’s what makes it plausible. It’s also what makes it useless without a source.

Fourteen places. For one Quebec.

Which measure? Which list? Which year?

Same Quebec, 14 places apart. It all depends on the table.

The Pierre Fortin correction

Eleven percent cheaper

Now let’s argue Marceau’s side, because the argument exists and it’s solid.

In November 2024, UQAM economist Pierre Fortin published a research note on real GDP per capita. His point of method is simple: every international comparison adjusts for price gaps, but Statistics Canada’s provincial accounts don’t do it between provinces.

And prices are lower in Quebec. By his estimates, final domestic demand prices there were 11% below Ontario’s in 2017.

He leans on Statistics Canada. In 2017, the consumer basket that cost C$110 in Toronto cost C$92 in Montreal. Housing alone explains about half of that gap, he writes.

Montreal, 92. Toronto, 110. You feel the difference in the rent.

Once that correction is made, he concludes, Quebec’s standard of living beat Ontario’s by 2.4% in 2023.

It would take 16%

It’s a real argument, and it helps Marceau. It brings Quebec closer to Canada. It might even bring it close.

But run the math to the end. For Quebec to rank 28th in purchasing power on the World Bank list, its prices would have to be about 16% below the Canadian average.

Fortin measures an 11% gap with Ontario, the most comparable province. Not 16% with Canada as a whole.

The argument narrows the gap. It doesn’t close it.

Fortin corrects the map. He doesn’t move Quebec to 28th.

France yes, Japan no

France at US$48,986

That leaves the promised neighbourhood: France or Japan.

In current dollars, France posts US$48,986 per person for 2025, 34th on the full list. A Quebec around US$50,350 would indeed be its neighbour.

On the list of states alone, France is 25th in current dollars. Quebec would be 24th. Neighbours again.

On this specific point, Marceau is right.

Japan at US$35,951

Japan sits much lower. US$35,951 per person, in 48th place. In purchasing power, it’s 45th.

Japan isn’t Quebec’s neighbour on either World Bank measure. It’s far behind.

Two neighbours announced. Only one showed up.

Half the sentence checks out. Half is contradicted.

France’s neighbour, yes. Japan’s, no.

GDP leaves out the debt

The richest country ever born

There’s one thing the ranking doesn’t see at all: debt.

GDP per capita measures output. It says nothing about what a new state would owe the day after it is born. And an independent Quebec would take on a share of the federal debt.

How much? Nobody in this debate put a number on it.

Debt doesn’t vanish. It gets divided. And the formula for dividing it changes everything.

C$324 to C$442 billion for Alberta

The Calgary study does offer a sense of scale, for Alberta. By taking on a share of the federal debt, Alberta’s debt would climb to between C$324 billion and C$442.3 billion, according to CBC News.

Its debt-to-GDP ratio could rise as high as 88.5%, against 7.7% projected for the end of the current fiscal year.

That isn’t Quebec. But it proves that a GDP-per-capita rank on day one says little about a state’s wealth on day two.

And yet day two is when taxpayers pay.

GDP counts what we produce. Debt counts what we owe.

The Calgary study

Commissioned in June, released in September

Now Girard, with the same rigour.

The study he cited exists. The Alberta government commissioned it in June 2026 from the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy. Economist Tim Sargent led it, and it was made public on September 16.

Outside reviewers went over it. Among them was François Vaillancourt, of the Université de Montréal. The school says it kept the final word on content.

The study says separation would cost Alberta between C$50 billion and C$170 billion over five years, CBC News reports. The study says it compares an orderly scenario with a difficult one. The study says the long-term outcome remains highly uncertain.

Minus 2% to minus 10%

Girard’s numbers are faithful. Over five years, Alberta’s GDP would fall 2% to 10%, according to La Presse. Over 20 years, it could gain 3% in the optimistic scenario, or lose 16% in the pessimistic one.

Between the two scenarios, over 20 years, the spread reaches 19 points of GDP. That tells you how much uncertainty the study itself accepts.

In the difficult scenario, employment would drop 10% at the worst of the recession, according to CBC.

The expert panel appointed by Alberta adds, according to CBC, that without Alberta, Canada would lose 15% of its GDP. Even Ontario would see its own shrink, by up to 0.9%.

He quoted it accurately. The problem lies elsewhere.

Girard’s number is right. It lives in Alberta.

Pipelines, not Quebec

An oil economy

The Calgary study describes a specific economy. An independent Alberta would depend more on moving its oil through the United States, the study says, according to CBC. Washington could demand a share of pipeline revenue. Alberta would stay exposed to crude prices.

Pierre Fortin, in his note, describes Alberta as steeped in hydrocarbon production, and Quebec as having no oil resources.

These are not interchangeable economies. The study’s central mechanism, landlocked oil, doesn’t exist in Quebec.

Quebec doesn’t have that problem. It has others. The study doesn’t put numbers on them.

Applying its figures to Quebec means lending an economy without oil the risks of an oil economy.

Quebec, mentioned once

Quebec does appear in the study. Once, in what CBC reports: in the difficult scenario, other provinces, Quebec in particular, might want to follow Alberta, and Ottawa might refuse concessions to discourage them.

In other words, the study treats Quebec as a bargaining risk. Not as an economy to measure.

On September 16, Calgary publishes on Alberta. On the 24th, Montreal turns it into a Quebec number.

A study of oil doesn’t measure the St. Lawrence.

The voter behind the wheel

Two numbers in ninety minutes

Who pays for these approximations? Not the spokespeople. The voter.

He heard 28th. He heard minus 2 to minus 10%. He heard Brexit. He heard about three years of uncertainty signs. He heard about a garage double-locked on two buses.

He heard no source.

He’s driving, radio on, hands on the wheel. He’ll keep one number, the one that confirms what he already thought.

He shuts off the engine. He keeps the number. He forgets the list.

The next day, he’ll bring it up at work, by the coffee machine. With a rank. Without its source.

A voter’s fatigue

I’ll admit it: I wanted one of the two numbers to stand on its own. It would have spared me a lot of tables. And a little weariness.

Neither stands on its own. The first needs its list. The second needs a different province.

And yet the decision voters are being asked to make won’t come with a range.

The voter keeps the number. Nobody hands him the table.

One source, one year, one list

Half true, and beside the point

My rating, graded. Two numbers. Two scores.

Nicolas Marceau’s 28th place: plausible on some lists, unverifiable without its source, and wrong about Japan as a neighbour. On the list La Presse cites for Canada, with the gap the ISQ publishes, Quebec would be 32nd in current dollars and 38th in purchasing power.

The study Eric Girard cited: accurate in its numbers, off target in its subject. It measures Alberta, not Quebec.

The number anyone can redo

My rating could change fast.

It would take a source. It would take a year. It would take a measure. It would take a list. It would take, finally, a study that puts a number on Quebec’s separation, debt included.

None of that is impossible. None of it has been published.

What number will we demand, from one camp as much as the other, before we believe a rank?

A rank you can redo is worth more than a rank you applaud.

Not 28th, not Alberta: Quebec has yet to be measured.

Sources:

Primary Sources:

• World Bank — GDP per capita (current US$), 2025 data updated July 13, 2026
• Quebec statistics institute (ISQ) — real GDP per capita, Quebec and Canada 2024, April 8, 2026
• University of Calgary, School of Public Policy — implications of Alberta separation, September 2026

Secondary Sources:

• lapresse.ca — Board of Trade economic debate, the 28th place and the Calgary study, September 24, 2026
• CBC News — the Calgary report, C$50 billion to C$170 billion over five years, September 2026
• Pierre Fortin, ESG UQAM Chair in Macroeconomics and Forecasting — real GDP per capita, Quebec vs. Ontario, November 2024