OPEN LETTER: to the West looking away while Kim arms Putin

Introduction: this letter is addressed to those who prefer not to see

Dear Western leaders

I am writing this letter to you because a disturbing fact keeps unfolding before your eyes without provoking the outrage it deserves: North Korea continues to send and rotate its soldiers through Russia's Kursk region, more than two years after this military partnership began, according to an analysis published by the Lowy Institute. This is no longer a one-off episode — it has become an openly declared state policy under Kim Jong-un.

You already know this, but I prefer to spell it out plainly: roughly 14,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been sent to fight alongside Russian forces in Kursk, according to estimates relayed by NBC News. More than 6,000 of them are believed to have already died, according to estimates from South Korean, Ukrainian, and Western officials.

Why this letter is needed now

I chose the open-letter format because hushed briefings and carefully measured diplomatic statements are no longer enough. This partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang is no longer transactional — it is becoming structural, with a cooperation framework covering the 2027-2031 period expected to be signed later this year, according to Russian news agencies cited by NBC News.

If the West keeps treating this file as a footnote to the war in Ukraine, it will make a strategic mistake it will pay for over decades, long after the hoped-for end of the Ukrainian conflict.

What the rotation of troops reveals

A decision that came from Pyongyang, not Moscow

Here is a detail I want to underline specifically: according to intelligence reports cited by the Lowy Institute, the initiative for the additional deployment of troops reportedly came from Pyongyang itself, not from pressure exerted by Russia. This reversal of perspective changes everything about how we should understand this partnership.

It means Kim Jong-un is not enduring this war — he sees it as a strategic opportunity. Russia reportedly faces a shortfall estimated at 500,000 soldiers due to faltering mobilization efforts, yet it is Pyongyang pushing to deepen this military relationship, not the other way around.

A cynical calculation on human losses

North Korean losses are estimated between 1,000 and 3,800 since November, a casualty rate between 9 and 35%, according to the Lowy Institute analysis. A casualty rate between 10 and 15% is already enough to damage a military unit's cohesion, morale, and offensive capacity; above 30%, units often become ineffective in combat.

Despite these chilling numbers, withdrawing North Korean troops would expose Kim Jong-un to international embarrassment and deprive him of modern combat experience he considers valuable. This is the cold logic, where human lives become geopolitical currency, that I want to remind you of today.

A memorial to turn death into propaganda

The Kursk ceremony

In April 2026, a Russian delegation including Defense Minister Andrei Belousov attended a ceremony marking the completion of a memorial dedicated to the North Korean soldiers who died fighting in the Kursk region, according to NBC News. A commemorative concert titled "Stars of the Motherland" was even organized for the occasion.

Kim Jong-un left a handwritten note at the neoclassical memorial, declaring that the honor these soldiers upheld would live forever. This carefully staged display turns thousands of deaths into symbols of sacrifice and loyalty, an internal propaganda tool as cynical as it is effective for legitimizing the continued deployment.

Words that should alarm you

At the ceremony, Kim claimed North Korean forces had "eliminated the aggressors" and thwarted what he called "the hegemonic ambitions and military adventurism of the United States and the West," according to remarks reported by KCNA and relayed by NBC News. He also promised that North Korea would continue to support "wholeheartedly" Russian policies aimed at protecting its sovereignty and territorial integrity.

I ask you directly: how much longer will we let this Cold War language become the norm again without answering it with equal rhetorical and strategic firmness?

The arsenal crossing the border

Ammunition by the millions

Since November, weapons have been flowing both ways across the border between Russia and North Korea, according to the Lowy Institute. Twenty thousand containers holding more than six million rounds of 152mm and 122mm ammunition have reportedly been delivered to Russia, along with fifty 170mm "Koksan" self-propelled howitzers and twenty 240mm multiple rocket launch systems.

About one hundred KN-23/24 short-range ballistic missiles have reportedly already been delivered to Russia, and at least five KN-15 intermediate-range missiles, compared to Russia's formidable Oreshnik for their ability to strike deep into Europe, may also have been transferred, although Ukrainian intelligence has denied these specific claims.

What Moscow gives in return

This is not a one-way relationship. Over the past two months, intelligence reports suggest Moscow has transferred advanced air defense systems to Pyongyang, most likely S-400s, and reportedly reached a deal to supply MiG-29 and Su-27 fighter jets to North Korea.

These transfers could durably alter the security balance on the Korean Peninsula by stripping South Korea of its currently near-absolute air advantage, a development that should directly alarm Seoul, Tokyo, and Washington.

The real price of this alliance

A barter deal rather than a simple payment

According to Lowy Institute calculations, the North Korean contingent of 11,000 soldiers would be worth barely $314 million for a year of service, recruitment bonuses included. By comparison, a single S-400 system costs between $500 million and $1.3 billion depending on the buying country: China paid $500 million per regiment in 2014, Turkey $625 million in 2017, India $1.3 billion in 2018.

Even at the lowest price point, the value of North Korean troops remains far below the cost of a single Russian anti-air defense system, suggesting the payments are structured as a barter arrangement with a monetary top-up, rather than a simple standard commercial transaction.

A deal that would exceed seven billion dollars

The overall agreement between Moscow and Pyongyang, likely concluded in 2023 and possibly amended in 2024, would now exceed seven billion dollars in cumulative value, according to Lowy Institute estimates that factor in the value of troop deployments, the recent expansion of weapons deliveries, and earlier estimates from the Friedrich Naumann Foundation.

Even excluding the value of oil and food supplied by Moscow, this figure would be more than enough to cover Russia's recent deliveries, which explains why Pyongyang suddenly agreed to share such costly and sensitive military systems.

A treaty that locks in the future

The 2024 mutual defense pact

North Korea and Russia formalized a "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" in 2024 during a visit to Pyongyang by President Vladimir Putin, including a mutual defense clause, according to NBC News. This treaty forms the legal foundation that let both regimes legitimize, in their own eyes, the deployment of North Korean troops on Russian soil.

Belousov said he had reached an agreement with North Korean officials to establish military collaboration on a stable, long-term basis, with a cooperation framework specifically covering the 2027-2031 period due to be signed later this year.

An alliance designed for the postwar period

Analyst Lim Eul-chul noted that this five-year cooperation plan suggests preparations for the aftermath of the conflict in Ukraine, a chilling observation confirming that this alliance will not dissolve with any eventual ceasefire or peace negotiation between Kyiv and Moscow.

According to Lim, this political, military, and economic alignment could continue well after the war ends, potentially evolving into a lasting institutional alliance between the two regimes — a scenario the West appears to be only just beginning to seriously anticipate.

The guilty silence of Western capitals

An insufficient diplomatic response

Faced with this level of military integration between Russia and North Korea, Western responses remain largely symbolic: additional sanctions, statements of condemnation, but few concrete actions capable of truly disrupting this flow of weapons and troops directly fueling the war in Ukraine.

I don't claim to know the perfect solution to this complex problem, but I do observe that the gap between the gravity of the situation and the intensity of the Western response keeps widening, an imbalance that directly benefits Moscow and Pyongyang.

What this means for Korean security

For Seoul, this is no distant geopolitical abstraction. Every air defense system or modern fighter jet transferred by Russia to North Korea directly narrows South Korea's military edge, with potentially dramatic consequences in the event of an escalation on the Korean Peninsula itself.

Washington's allies in East Asia deserve at least as much Western attention as that given to Ukraine, because the two files are now deeply intertwined by this same Russia-North Korea alliance stretching simultaneously across two major strategic theaters.

North Korea's navy is changing shape

A warship that strangely resembles a Russian design

North Korea recently unveiled its largest warship ever built, equipped with a vertical launch system capable of deploying cruise or guided anti-air missiles, according to the Lowy Institute. The ship's design bears a striking resemblance to Russia's Derzky project, raising legitimate questions about possible technical assistance from the Kremlin.

No report directly and confirmedly links Russia to these North Korean naval advances, but Pyongyang's unprecedented participation as an observer in recent Russian naval exercises suggests ongoing or upcoming collaboration in this area as well.

A threat extending beyond ground troops

This naval dimension of Russia-North Korea cooperation deserves the same vigilance as ground weapons transfers. A North Korean navy modernized with Russian technical help, even indirect, would significantly change strategic calculations across the entire Asia-Pacific region.

I'll say it plainly: every new military capability Pyongyang acquires through this partnership brings North Korea a little closer to the status of a regional military power capable of projecting force well beyond its immediate borders.

Drones, the next stage of cooperation

Mass production announced in November

North Korean suicide drones are reportedly about to be delivered to Russia imminently, following a mass production order placed in November, according to the Lowy Institute. This new weapons category would add to the already considerable arsenal Pyongyang has transferred to Moscow since this partnership began.

These transfers had long been expected, but claims that they are linked solely to North Korean troop deployments appear exaggerated, according to the Lowy Institute analysis, which instead favors the hypothesis of an overarching deal structured over several years.

A full-scale proving ground for Pyongyang

Beyond directly aiding the Russian war effort, these drone deliveries give North Korea a full-scale proving ground to test its arsenal under real combat conditions, an opportunity the regime could never have obtained otherwise without provoking a direct confrontation.

This experimental dimension of North Korea's military cooperation with Russia should worry all of North Korea's neighboring countries, which could one day face weapons systems directly tested and refined on Ukrainian soil.

What Kim Jong-un really wants to gain

A security guarantee in case of a Korean crisis

According to the Lowy Institute analysis, Kim Jong-un's main goal is to anchor Moscow in a deeper strategic alignment in order to secure reciprocal support in the event of a crisis on the Korean Peninsula itself. This calculation explains why Pyongyang accepts sacrificing thousands of soldiers for a gain that goes far beyond the current Ukrainian conflict.

This pursuit of long-term security guarantees places the war in Ukraine in a far broader perspective than it is usually presented: for Kim, this war is an investment in his own regime's future survival against any future pressure from Seoul or Washington.

Preventing a Russia-West rapprochement

Pyongyang is also reportedly seeking to prevent any eventual rapprochement between Russia and the West after a settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, thereby reducing the risk of future isolation for the North Korean regime should Moscow ever decide to move closer to Washington or Brussels again.

This fear of abandonment, typical of diplomatically isolated regimes, explains Pyongyang's determination to lock in this alliance through institutional agreements spanning several years, well beyond the foreseeable duration of the current Ukrainian conflict.

Why Ukraine pays the heaviest price

Firepower pounding Ukrainian positions

Every "Koksan" howitzer and every North Korean multiple rocket launch system delivered to Russia translates directly into more firepower aimed at Ukrainian positions, more cities shelled, more Ukrainian soldiers exposed to Russian artillery reinforced by this outside help.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly said that the coalition formed by Russia, North Korea, Iran, and to a lesser extent China, constitutes an existential threat not only to Ukraine, but to the entire rules-based international order the West claims to defend.

Ukrainian heroism that deserves more support

Facing this increasingly militarily integrated authoritarian coalition, Ukrainian resistance, carried by soldiers fighting an adversary reinforced by massive foreign weapons deliveries, deserves Western support matching this growing threat, not promises diluted across endless budget cycles.

Zelensky remains, in my view, the embodiment of legitimate resistance against an aggression Moscow could probably never have sustained this long without the considerable logistical and human support Pyongyang has provided for more than two years now.

What this letter concretely asks of you

Coordinated pressure on both regimes

I ask you, Western leaders, to treat this Russia-North Korea partnership as the structural threat it has become, not as a mere secondary detail of the Ukrainian conflict. This means more targeted sanctions, tighter monitoring of weapons transfer routes, and much closer coordination between Washington, Seoul, Tokyo, and European capitals.

This pressure must also come with increased, fast, and predictable support for Ukraine, in order to reduce the advantage this massive influx of ammunition and North Korean soldiers gives Moscow on the ground.

Vigilance that must not fade over time

Finally, I ask you to never consider this alliance temporary or bound to collapse on its own. Evidence keeps piling up, from the Lowy Institute to NBC News, that Moscow and Pyongyang are building a military architecture designed to outlast the current war in Ukraine.

Western vigilance must operate on the same timescale as this alliance, or risk waking up in five or ten years to a fully institutionalized military axis between two regimes that now share a common strategic interest in weakening the Western international order.

What history will remember of this silence

A missed opportunity if nothing changes

If the West continues to downplay the scale of this Russia-North Korea alliance, history will remember a missed opportunity to contain, at a still relatively early stage, the formation of a lasting military axis between two authoritarian regimes determined to challenge the international order by force.

This is not some distant hypothetical scenario — it is a reality being built methodically, contract after contract, delivery after delivery, under the gaze of a West still too often distracted by its own internal divisions.

One last question addressed to you

I close this letter with a simple question, addressed directly to you who hold the power to change this trajectory: how many more thousands of North Korean soldiers, how many more billions of dollars in weapons exchanged, how many more years of institutionalized cooperation will it take before this alliance is finally treated with the strategic seriousness it deserves?

The responsibility that falls on all of us

Not repeating the mistakes of the past

History is full of examples where the West underestimated the formation of military alliances between authoritarian regimes until it was too late to act effectively without a human and financial cost far higher than if early action had been taken.

I refuse to believe we are doomed to repeat this historical mistake with the Russia-North Korea alliance, but that requires a political will I do not yet see sufficiently asserted in Western capitals, despite the mounting evidence documented by credible institutions like the Lowy Institute.

A call to action, not just words

This letter is not an academic exercise. It is a direct call to turn the concern expressed in expert reports into concrete diplomatic, economic, and military actions capable of genuinely weighing on Moscow and Pyongyang's strategic calculations.

I still believe, despite everything, that the West has the tools needed to respond to this threat, provided it stops treating it as a footnote in the larger story of the war in Ukraine.

Conclusion: the letter remains open, the answer is yours

A file that will not disappear on its own

This alliance between Russia and North Korea will not collapse on its own under the weight of its internal contradictions. It grows stronger, month after month, through increasingly sophisticated weapons transfers and institutional agreements designed to last well beyond the war in Ukraine.

I close this letter hoping it will contribute, even modestly, to a clearer understanding of the real scale of this joint threat, far from the simplifications that too often reduce this file to a single line in an occasional intelligence report.

What I will keep watching

I will continue, in my future columns, to track the evolution of this Russia-North Korea alliance, its implications for security in East Asia, and its direct impact on the course of the war in Ukraine, for as long as the West has not responded at the level this challenge demands.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

On how this open letter was built

This open letter draws on the detailed analysis published by the Lowy Institute, written by researcher Olena Guseinova, as well as on information reported by NBC News regarding the Kursk memorial ceremony and Kim Jong-un's official statements. I had no access to any confidential intelligence source beyond these public publications.

The numerical estimates on losses, weapons deliveries, and the total value of the Russia-North Korea deal come directly from the cited analyses, and I note these are expert estimates, not absolute official confirmations from the governments involved.

My acknowledged bias

I fully support Ukraine in its resistance against Russian aggression, and I consider North Korea, Iran, and China to be direct threats to Western security when they actively support the Kremlin's war machine. This personal conviction shapes the tone of this letter, even as I strive to ground every factual claim in verifiable sources.

Sources

Primary sources

Lowy Institute — The message North Korea sends by rotating its troops in Russia

NBC News — Kim Jong Un vows to continue support for Russia as North Korea opens memorial museum — April 27, 2026

Secondary sources

The Kyiv Independent — Nearly 11,000 North Korean troops stationed in Russia's Kursk Oblast at start of 2026 — February 13, 2026

Reuters — North Korea's Kim voices full support for Russia, sends National Day message to Putin — June 11, 2026

Ground News (via Kyiv Independent) — Ukraine reveals new figures for North Korean troop losses in Russia's Kursk Oblast — June 29, 2026

Institute for the Study of War — Korean Peninsula Update, June 16, 2026