F-35 jets for Turkey, the card Trump plays before Ankara

Introduction: a last-minute twist before the NATO summit

A file frozen since 2019 resurfaces abruptly

Just days before the NATO summit scheduled for July 7 and 8 in Ankara, Donald Trump hinted that he might authorize the sale of F-35fighter jets to Turkey, a file frozen since 2019 after Ankara's purchase of the Russian S-400 air defense system. Asked directly about the matter, the American president replied that he would probably do something to make Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan very happy, according to remarks reported on July 1, 2026.

Vague as that statement may be, it reopens a dispute now seven years old that cost Turkey its place in the F-35 development program and froze delivery of more than a hundred aircraft ordered for roughly eleven billion dollars.

Why this file matters so much to NATO

Turkey remains a military pillar of the Atlantic Alliance, fielding NATO's second-largest army by troop numbers. Unfreezing the F-35 sale would send a strong signal just days before a summit where Washington and its allies want to project an image of cohesion against Russia and its partners.

This file also shows how hard it is to reconcile sanctions, alliances and realpolitik within an Alliance that needs all of its members united, including those who occasionally flirt with Moscow.

The S-400 dispute, origin of seven years of gridlock

An American decision rooted in technology security

Washington excluded Turkey from the F-35 program in 2019 after Ankara acquired the Russian S-400 system, judging that holding both systems at once would expose the American jet's stealth technology to espionage risk. The U.S. Congress then legislated to formally bar any sale of aircraft to Turkey until the dispute was resolved.

Turkey had nonetheless taken part in F-35 development since 2002 alongside other NATO countries, and had already received six aircraft before the embargo, now stored on American soil without ever reaching their intended Turkish base.

Ankara refuses to give up the S-400

In 2024, the United States had indicated a sale would remain possible if Turkey simply abandoned its Russian system, an option Ankara has consistently ruled out, since the S-400 is now durably integrated into its air-defense setup. This deadlock has fed seven years of diplomatic tension between two allies who are supposed to converge on the essentials.

Turkey's answer: the national KAAN fighter

A program born of American refusal

Faced with the American blockade, Turkey accelerated development of its own domestically designed fighter, the KAAN, a direct response to seven years of exclusion from the F-35 program. This project reflects Ankara's determination to no longer depend entirely on Washington's goodwill for its strategic military capabilities.

Yet the Trump administration has notified Congress of its intent to sell Turkey dozens of jet engines made by General Electric, worth more than 700 million dollars, meant precisely to power this autonomous Turkish fighter.

A dependency that persists regardless

Selling American engines for a jet born in reaction to the American embargo reveals a paradox: even as it seeks to break free, Turkey remains dependent on key components made in the United States, proof that a full technological rupture remains difficult for a NATO ally.

The Ankara summit, the perfect stage for an announcement

A two-day gathering under high tension

The 2026 NATO summit, set for July 7 and 8 in Ankara, will bring together dozens of elected representatives, defense ministers and decision-makers from the Alliance's 32 member countries. Secretary General Mark Rutte said discussions would cover the transformation of defense investment, industrial military innovation, and continued support for Ukraine.

According to Forbes, NATO allies are expected to announce tens of billions of dollars in defense-related deals at the summit, a backdrop that would make any announcement on Turkish F-35s especially symbolic.

Erdogan, strategichost of a summit with many stakes

The fact that Turkey itself is hosting this summit hands Erdogan an obvious diplomatic lever to extract concessions on the F-35 file, at a moment when Washington is precisely trying to display flawless Western unity against Russia.

The 5% of GDP target, backdrop of the summit

An ambitious commitment adopted in 2025

At the 2025 summit, Alliance members had committed to raising defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, with 3.5% for pure military equipment and 1.5% for related spending such as cybersecurity and infrastructure. This target replaces the 2% threshold set in 2014, which only 23 of the 32 member countries had reached by 2025.

This ambitious trajectory is already drawing criticism, with countries such as Spain refusing to firmly commit to the 5% target, while the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovenia and the United Kingdom are struggling to make progress since last year.

Rutte searches for a credible path to the goal

NATO's secretary general said he wants to help members build a credible path toward the 5% target, a balancing act while several European capitals drag their feet on budget commitments they collectively voted for.

Ukraine still at the center of discussions

Zelensky expected in Ankara

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky will attend this two-day summit, confirming that the Ukrainian file will remain a top priority for the Alliance despite the space taken up by bilateral issues like the Turkish F-35s. Rutte reiterated that Ukraine's security remains inseparable from that of all NATO members.

Last April, Alliance members had already committed 60 billion dollars in military aid to Ukraine, an amount that adds to the tens of billions already disbursed since Russia's full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The American program for reselling weapons to European allies

Under the Trump administration, a program was set up allowing American weapons to be sold to European NATO allies, who then transfer them to Ukraine, a formula that lets Washington keep supporting Kyiv while generating revenue for the American defense industry.

Regional precedents: Israel and Greece

Two allies without an embargo, for comparison

Unlike Turkey, Israel has already received 48 of the 75 F-35s it ordered, without ever facing a comparable embargo, while Greece awaits delivery of twenty aircraft by 2030. This contrast underscores just how much the Turkish file remains a political exception rather than a simple logistical or industrial question.

This regional comparison fuels a sense, on the Turkish side, of a two-speed treatment within the Atlantic Alliance itself, an argument Ankara's diplomacy will not fail to raise at the summit.

A region where the military balance is shifting fast

The deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has pushed Washington toward a more pragmatic approach to defense cooperation, a factor that could tilt the scales toward easing restrictions on Turkey, an indispensable ally in the region.

What NATO's defense innovation push changes in the equation

The DIANA program and technological acceleration

Beyond the F-35 file, the Ankara summit is also set to address defense industrial innovation across the Alliance, notably through DIANA, the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic, which awarded a research contract in April to a British company specializing in underwater robotics.

This innovation drive reflects NATO's determination to cut administrative barriers and speed up the adoption of new military technologies, an issue that reaches far beyond the sole Turkish-American dispute over F-35s.

An industrial coherence worth preserving

Unfreezing the F-35 sale to Turkey would fit into this broader push to strengthen the Western defense industrial base, where every major contract helps consolidate the military ecosystem of allied countries against strategic rivals.

Vice President Vance's role in the file

A legal review entrusted to the Pentagon

Vice President JD Vance said the Pentagon was currently reviewing the matter from a strictly legal standpoint, since selling F-35s to Turkey remains barred by a law passed by Congress and signed by Trump himself. This legal framework complicates any spontaneous announcement, even though the president has raised it publicly.

Trump himself acknowledged the complexity of the situation, saying simply that his administration would find a solution, a phrase that leaves the door open without guaranteeing any precise timeline.

An executive testing the limits of its room to maneuver

This situation illustrates the tension between the president's desire to move quickly on this diplomatic file and the legal constraints imposed by Congress, a typical institutional balancing act in contemporary American foreign policy.

International reactions to this possible reopening

Visible caution on the European side

Several European allies are watching this file with real caution, aware that unfreezing the F-35 sale to Turkey could reignite tensions with other Alliance members already critical of Ankara's past closeness to Moscow over the S-400 file.

This caution also reflects NATO's difficulty in maintaining a coherent line on sanctions tied to buying Russian equipment, even as the Alliance demands unwavering firmness from every member on the Ukrainian file against Russia.

Russia's position, lying in wait on this file

Moscow is closely watching this possible military rapprochement between Washington and Ankara, aware that a full normalization of Turkish-American defense ties would mechanically reduce Russian influence over a partner it has long cultivated through the S-400 sale.

The economic stakes for America's defense industry

A potential multibillion-dollar contract

Beyond diplomacy, a potential sale of more than a hundred F-35s to Turkey would represent a multibillion-dollar contract for Lockheed Martin and its entire supply chain, a major economic stake for the American defense industry at a time when global demand for the jet remains strong.

This economic dimension is never neutral in this kind of file: the more the American industry depends on international contracts, the stronger the political pressure to ease restrictions like those targeting Turkey becomes over the years.

A global race for fifth-generation fighters

The global market for fifth-generation fighters remains fiercely contested between the United States and its strategic rivals, reinforcing the argument that letting Turkey drift permanently toward Russian or Chinese alternatives would be a strategic setback for the West as a whole.

What this means for NATO's long-term unity

A test of cohesion before anything else

Just days before the Ankara summit, this F-35 file has become a genuine test of NATO's capacity to resolve its internal disputes without fracturing its cohesion against the external threats posed by Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

A positive resolution of this dispute would send a strong signal of Western diplomatic maturity, while another failure would prolong seven years of needless tension between two allies whose military cooperation remains strategically indispensable.

A precedent for other cross-sanction files

How this file is ultimately resolved could also set a precedent for other allies who have flirted with Russian equipment in the past, an issue that reaches far beyond the Turkish case alone within today's Western security architecture.

The symbolic weight of choosing Ankara as host city

A political message aimed at Erdogan

The choice of Ankara as host city for the 2026 NATO summit is no accident: it lets Erdogan project, to a domestic Turkish audience, the image of a head of state capable of drawing every leader of the Atlantic Alliance to his own country, a valuable political asset ahead of difficult electoral and economic milestones for Turkey.

This diplomatic symbol strengthens Ankara's negotiating position on the F-35 file, since any American concession announced during this summit would immediately be seen as a personal victory for the Turkish president in front of his own electorate.

A precedent for future traveling summits

This summit also sets a precedent for NATO, which increasingly chooses to hold its major gatherings in countries where sensitive bilateral files remain open, a strategy that can ease diplomatic compromise but also exposes the Alliance to accusations of pandering to its hosts.

This dynamic illustrates modern summit diplomacy, where the chosen venue itself becomes a bargaining chip among allies, on par with official speeches or final communiqués.

The weight of military lobbies in this file

Lockheed Martin, a discreet but decisive player

Behind the political statements, the manufacturer Lockheed Martin has spent years applying steady pressure in Washington to unlock the F-35 sale to Turkey, a market judged too lucrative to remain closed indefinitely over a persistent geopolitical dispute.

This industrial influence, rarely discussed publicly, weighs heavily nonetheless in the internal deliberations of the American administration, where economic interests and national security imperatives constantly intertwine on this kind of strategic file.

A difficult balance between commerce and security

The U.S. Congress remains torn between wanting to support its national defense industry and the need to maintain a firm line toward countries that have flirted with Russian military equipment, a dilemma that partly explains this file's slow pace since 2019.

This tension between commercial interests and security demands is not unique to the Turkish case, but it finds a particularly stark illustration here given the financial sums at stake for the American defense industry.

Conclusion: a file hanging on the Ankara summit

A decision that could come in the next few days

Whether July 7 and 8 will truly mark the end of seven years of gridlock, or whether Trump's statements will once again amount to intent without follow-through, remains to be seen. The legal framework imposed by Congress complicates any hasty announcement, but the diplomatic and economic pressure in favor of a thaw has never been stronger.

A symbol of Western unity worth watching closely

Whatever the outcome, this F-35 file will remain a valuable indicator of the Alliance's ability to turn persistent bilateral tensions into concrete solutions, at a moment when Western unity against its strategic adversaries has never seemed more necessary.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I am a columnist, not a military aviation expert nor a diplomat specializing in Turkish-American relations. I am openly pro-Western and I believe that strengthening NATO's cohesion serves the collective interests of allied democracies, a bias that shapes my interpretation of the facts reported here.

On military and security matters, I give the Trump administration credit when its posture strengthens Western deterrence, a position I maintain in this piece while staying attentive to the legal constraints framing this particular file.

What I don't know

I do not know whether an F-35 sale will actually be announced at the Ankara summit, nor on what precise timeline. I have not invented any quote or any detail not confirmed by the sources cited below, and I will stay attentive to any development in this file in the days ahead.

Sources

Primary sources

Izvestia — the United States again wants to sell F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, July 1, 2026

Forbes — what defense leaders will discuss at the 2026 NATO summit, July 1, 2026

Secondary sources

Haberler — Minister Fidan says the F-35 sales ban may be lifted

Punch — analysts say Trump's Turkey visit may unlock fighter jet deal

Reuters — aerospace and defense news

Wikipedia — 2026 Ankara NATO summit