The day Poland sealed its submarine future with Saab

A ceremony loaded with symbolism

On June 29, 2026, in the Baltic port of Gdynia, Prime Ministers Donald Tusk of Poland and Ulf Kristersson of Sweden witnessed the signing of a contract the Polish navy had waited nearly three decades for. Swedish defense giant Saab had just secured a $4.83 billion contract to supply three A26-class submarines.

This moment is more than a simple commercial transaction. It is the culmination of a program called Orka, designed to replace the Polish navy's only submarine still in service, an aging Kilo-class vessel dating back to the Soviet era.

A contract at the heart of European rearmament

This contract fits into a broader context of accelerated military modernization in Northern Europe, fueled in part by the European defense loan program SAFE, of which Poland was the first beneficiary.

A design built for the Baltic Sea

The A26 Blekinge is presented by Saab as a fifth-generation submarine, fitted with an extremely low acoustic and magnetic signature, a feature crucial for stealthy operations in the shallow, contested waters of the Baltic Sea.

This technological discretion is precisely what allowed Saab to beat out competing bids from Germany's ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems, Italy's Fincantieri, France's Naval Group, Spain's Navantia, and South Korea's Hanwha Ocean.

A contract that goes well beyond the hulls

The deal signed in Gdynia covers not only the three submarines, but also a full weapons package, a training and support program, as well as the development of maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) capabilities directly in Poland, in close partnership with local industry.

A first delivery expected in 2031

Under the terms of the contract, the first of the three units will be delivered in 2031, while full delivery of all three submarines, with trained crews and integrated equipment, will be completed by 2038. This drawn-out timeline reflects the industrial complexity inherent in building submarines of this sophistication.

While waiting for the first A26 to arrive, Sweden will lease Poland a modernized A17-type submarine, or in some versions a Gotland-class vessel, allowing Polish crews to begin training as early as next year.

A crucial stopgap solution

This "gap-filler" solution is essential to preserve the Polish navy's operational know-how, which risked losing its submarine capability during the long construction period for the new vessels.

Poland, pioneer of the European program

Poland became the first country to sign loans under the European SAFE (Security Action for Europe) program, receiving a first disbursement of €6.6 billion as early as May 29, 2026, as part of a total envelope of €44 billion approved by Brussels.

This European financing adds to an already considerable national budget effort, with Poland aiming to finalize $27 billion worth of defense contracts under this program by the end of May, according to statements from Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

A model for other European countries

This Polish speed of execution, combining European financing with concrete industrial contracts, is increasingly cited as a model for other European capitals still struggling to turn their spending commitments into actual contracts.

Thousands of jobs on both sides of the Baltic

According to Swedish estimates, this contract should generate roughly 7,000 jobs in Poland, in addition to a substantial number of additional positions in Sweden. This economic spillover reinforces the argument that defense investments are not just a security cost, but also a regional economic engine.

The planned industrial cooperation also includes Sweden's purchase of a rescue vessel named Ratownik, built at a Polish shipyard belonging to the PGZ (Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa) group, a form of industrial offset that was the subject of prolonged negotiations.

An industrial file that saw tensions

Negotiations over industrial offsets nearly derailed the deal several times in the spring, with certain Polish officials from the Ministry of State Assets setting a late-June ultimatum to close the deal, or else reopen discussions with alternative bidders.

A region that has become a theater of tension again

The Baltic Sea has, in recent years, once again become a major strategic friction point between NATO and Russia, with a growing number of incidents involving damaged undersea cables and an increased Russian naval presence in the region.

In this context, Poland's ability to operate modern, quiet submarines constitutes a direct reinforcement of NATO's deterrence posture in this sensitive strategic zone, alongside other coastal states such as Sweden, itself now a full member of the Atlantic Alliance.

Strengthened deterrence for the entire northern flank

The arrival of new Polish submarines will complement an undersea deterrence framework already reinforced by Sweden and Finland's entry into NATO, turning the Baltic into something close to a lake almost entirely surrounded by allied countries.

A contrast with other nations' setbacks

This Polish success stands in sharp contrast with the difficulties faced by other Western submarine programs, notably the AUKUS program involving Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, which has seen significant delays and schedule revisions, with the first delivery of used American submarines to Australia not expected before the early 2030s.

The relative speed with which Poland ran its own process, from supplier selection in November 2025 to the signing of the final contract barely seven months later, illustrates a procedural efficiency few programs of this scale manage to sustain.

Lessons for all European navies

This Polish efficiency could serve as a benchmark for other European navies engaged in similar acquisition processes, particularly when it comes to managing industrial offsets and setting realistic delivery timelines.

A moment of national pride in Warsaw

Poland's Minister of National Defense, Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz, hailed the signing as the realization of "the most modern fifth-generation submarines," designed specifically to operate under the particular conditions of the Baltic Sea.

On the Swedish side, Saab CEO Micael Johansson had already stressed, at the time of the initial selection last November, that he was "honored" by the trust Warsaw placed in the Swedish bid amid fierce international competition.

A partnership that goes beyond the commercial framework

Both leaders stressed that this contract is not just a commercial transaction, but a deepening of defense ties between two NATO member countries that share a common strategic maritime border.

A precedent that calls for caution

It's worth noting that the two A26 submarines already ordered by Sweden for its own navy have recently faced delays, with delivery pushed back to 2031 and 2033 respectively. This precedent calls for reasonable caution about the strict timeline announced for Poland.

Shipbuilding experts note that the complexity inherent in next-generation submarines, with their advanced stealth systems, makes schedule overruns relatively common in this demanding industrial sector.

Necessary vigilance without excessive pessimism

This caution should not, however, overshadow the scale of the commitment made by both governments, nor the industrial solidity of the partnership sealed between Saab and the Polish shipyards.

A rapidly growing defense budget

Poland has considerably increased its military spending in recent years, aiming to reach some of the highest investment levels in NATO as a proportion of its gross domestic product. The Orka program represents only a fraction of this massive budgetary effort, which also touches aviation, artillery, and air defense systems.

This budgetary trajectory makes Poland one of the most dynamic contributors to strengthening NATO's eastern flank, a region directly exposed to tensions with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine.

An example for the whole Alliance

This Polish momentum concretely illustrates what a NATO member country can accomplish when it takes its defense spending commitments seriously, combining political will, European financing, and solid industrial partnerships.

A landmark contract for Saab

For Saab, this $4.83 billion contract represents one of the largest export successes in its recent history, strengthening its position in the global market for conventional submarines amid increasingly fierce international competition.

This success could also pave the way for further export contracts for the A26, particularly with navies of other Baltic or Nordic countries seeking to modernize their own submarine fleets amid persistent regional tension.

A positive signal for Europe's defense industry

Beyond the Swedish case alone, this contract reinforces the notion that Europe's defense industry has the technological capabilities needed to compete with major international players, without systematically depending on suppliers from outside Europe.

A direct reinforcement of defensive posture

In the context of the war in Ukraine and persistent tensions with Moscow, every capability boost by a NATO member country on the Alliance's eastern flank directly contributes to the West's overall deterrence posture against a Russia whose regional intentions remain a legitimate source of concern.

Submarine capabilities, in particular, play a strategic role disproportionate to their numbers, given their ability to operate quietly and significantly complicate the calculations of any potential adversary in the region.

A lasting contribution to collective security

This contract, even though its operational fruits will only materialize years from now, already sends a clear signal about Poland's determination to fully assume its role in NATO's collective security.

A maritime space redefined by Swedish and Finnish membership

The entry of Sweden and Finland into NATO has transformed the strategic geography of the Baltic Sea, which is no longer just a commercial shipping route but a space almost entirely bordered by member countries of the Atlantic Alliance. This new configuration fundamentally changes the military calculus for the entire region.

The Polish submarine contract fits directly into this reshaping, as it fills a capability gap that has existed since the end of the Cold War, at a time when the region is regaining front-rank strategic importance for all Western allies.

Increased coordination among allied navies

Joint naval exercises between Poland, Sweden, Finland, Germany, and Denmark have multiplied in recent years, a trend expected to intensify once the new Polish submarines are operational and fully integrated into the Alliance's command structures.

This reinforced coordination illustrates a deep shift: the Baltic is becoming a laboratory for European military integration, where coastal countries are learning to operate together with growing fluidity in the face of a clearly identified common threat.

Extension options already under consideration

Some Polish officials have already floated the possibility of expanding the Orka program beyond the three units currently ordered, an option that will largely depend on how the regional security context evolves and on available budgetary room in the years ahead.

Such an expansion would further strengthen the strategic depth of the Polish submarine fleet, an asset seen as increasingly indispensable given the persistent Russian naval presence in the Kaliningrad region, the heavily militarized Russian enclave that directly borders Poland.

A test of long-term industrial credibility

The real test for this partnership between Saab and Poland will play out in the years ahead, when it will need to be shown that commitments on timeline, technology transfer, and industrial offsets are fully honored, without the slippage seen elsewhere.

If this industrial and strategic bet pays off, it could well become the reference point other European countries look to replicate for their own naval modernization programs over the coming decade.

A symbol beyond the strict naval framework

The signing of the Orka contract in Gdynia on June 29, 2026, goes well beyond the framework of a simple submarine purchase. It illustrates a broader dynamic of European rearmament taking ownership of itself, financed in part by common European mechanisms like SAFE, and carried forward by solid industrial partnerships among NATO allies.

Despite the scheduling challenges that could arise before the full delivery expected in 2038, this contract represents a significant milestone in Northern Europe's military modernization trajectory.

A model for the continent to follow

It remains to be seen whether other European capitals will manage to turn their own rearmament ambitions into contracts as concrete and structuring as the one sealed between Warsaw and Stockholm.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

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I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

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