The pardon Trump should never sign for fraudster Guo Wengui

Thirty years in prison, one question that lingers

Exiled Chinese tycoon Guo Wengui, also known as Ho Wan Kwok and Miles Guo, was sentenced on June 29, 2026 to 30 years in prison by federal judge Analisa Torres in Manhattan, for a massive fraud that cost hundreds of millions of dollars to more than a thousand victims worldwide, according to the BBC and NPR. A heavy, unambiguous sentence, handed down after a trial that lasted seven weeks.

And yet, the question already dominating conversations in Washington is not one of justice served, but of a possible presidential pardon. Quiet but very real pressure is building on Donald Trump to wipe away, with a stroke of the pen, a conviction secured after years of federal investigation.

A man who cultivated the right connections

Guo Wengui skillfully built himself an image as an anti-communist dissident, cultivating close ties with the hardest-line fringe of the pro-Trump movement, particularly with his former adviser Steve Bannon. This political closeness is not an incidental detail: it is precisely what is fueling today's speculation about possible presidential clemency.

A jury found Guo guilty in July 2024 on nine of twelve counts, including wire fraud, bank fraud, securities fraud, and money laundering, at the end of an investigation that lasted several years.

889 million dollars to be repaid

Judge Torres ordered Guo Wengui to repay 889 million dollars to his victims, a figure that gives a sense of the scale of the fraudulent scheme, according to NBC News. Prosecutors estimated the scheme siphoned at least 550 million dollars directly out of the pockets of thousands of supporters who believed they were backing a legitimate anti-communist cause.

The seized assets also include his New Jersey mansion and several luxury vehicles, including a Rolls-Royce and a Bugatti, symbols of a lifestyle prosecutors say was funded directly by money diverted from his most loyal supporters.

An uncompromising case built by prosecutors

Federal prosecutors described the scheme as one of the largest and most persistent frauds ever tried in the country, having destroyed hundreds of lives between 2018 and 2023. Judge Torres herself noted that Guo continues, to this day, to deny any responsibility and shows no remorse toward his victims.

This total absence of remorse, documented directly by the judge who handled the case, makes it all the more troubling to imagine a presidential pardon simply erasing this conviction without any moral accounting ever taking place.

A report dating back to November 2025

As early as November 2025, the New York Post reported that officials inside the Trump administration were actively trying to block a possible pardon for Guo, fearing the president might be won over by the victimhood narrative the tycoon has cultivated for years. That narrative presents Guo as a dissident persecuted by Beijing, a version his lawyers continue to defend despite the jury's verdict.

An intelligence-linked source cited by the same newspaper summed up the situation bluntly: Guo deserves handcuffs, not a pardon, and anyone advocating for his pardon is acting out of pure self-interest.

Bannon allies officially deny any lobbying

People close to Steve Bannon have publicly denied that he is actively lobbying for a pardon, even though the Wall Street Journal reports that Bannon has "repeatedly called for Guo's release" on his own media platforms and in his circles of influence. This contradiction between official denials and public statements fuels observers' skepticism.

It is worth recalling that Bannon himself received a pardon from Trump in 2021, in the final hours of his first term, after being arrested in 2020 aboard a yacht belonging to none other than Guo Wengui. The precedent is troubling.

Ed Martin, a controversial figure in the case

The lawyer overseeing Trump's presidential pardons, Ed Martin, appeared on War Room, hosted by none other than Steve Bannon, just days after the New York Post's revelations about internal fears of a possible pardon for Guo. That appearance clarified nothing, but it illustrates the troubling closeness between the circles pushing for clemency and those officially responsible for reviewing such requests.

Technically, a pardon request through the Department of Justice can only be filed after the convicted person has served part of their sentence. But an American president retains the constitutional power to grant a pardon at any time, simply by declaring it publicly, with no formal procedure required.

A forfeiture that could vanish even before sentencing is finalized

Former Justice Department officials specializing in criminal asset forfeiture have pointed out that a pardon granted before a final forfeiture order is imposed could simply prevent the 889 million dollars from ever being returned to victims. The timing of any potential pardon therefore matters enormously, well beyond mere political symbolism.

This legal mechanism, often unknown to the general public, shows just how much presidential pardon power can be weaponized not only to erase a prison sentence, but also to deprive very real victims of any financial compensation.

A fugitive wanted by China itself

China's foreign ministry took note of the conviction the very day after the verdict, recalling that Guo Wengui is the subject of a red notice from Interpol requested by Beijing, which considers him a fugitive wanted on corruption charges in his home country. This international dimension considerably complicates any political calculation around a potential pardon.

An American pardon would change nothing about Guo's fugitive status in Beijing's eyes, but it would send an ambiguous diplomatic signal, at a moment when U.S.-China relations remain under constant strain over multiple economic and security issues.

A case nearly a decade old

As early as 2017, according to revelations picked up by several media outlets, Beijing sent a letter to Trump, delivered through casino magnate Steve Wynn, demanding Guo's extradition to China. Administration advisers blocked that extradition at the time, believing Guo could serve as a bargaining chip against Beijing.

This old story is a reminder that Guo Wengui was never simply an exiled businessman: he has always been a potential diplomatic pawn, which makes it all the more necessary that any decision be grounded in law rather than in convenient geopolitical calculations.

A precedent already set during the first term

Trump has already shown, with the pardon granted to Steve Bannon in 2021, his willingness to use this power in favor of his political allies, regardless of the severity of the charges against them. That pardon was itself criticized at the time as a blatant end-run around the usual Department of Justice process.

Several commentators note that Trump granted dozens of pardons to political and financial allies during his first term, a practice that, according to his critics, systematically rewarded loyalty rather than rehabilitation or restorative justice for victims.

An administration handing out clemency at pace since returning to power

Since returning to the White House, the Trump administration has already granted clemency to numerous figures from the worlds of business and politics, a trend that internal sources cited by the New York Post consider troubling given the Guo case. The White House, for its part, has declined to comment on whether any discussions about a pardon are taking place.

This official silence, far from reassuring anyone, instead fuels speculation and leaves hanging an uncertainty that above all benefits Guo Wengui and his most influential supporters.

Separating firmness against Beijing from judicial leniency

It is entirely possible, and even desirable, to remain firm against Beijing's authoritarian regime while categorically refusing to pardon a man convicted of ruining more than a thousand victims. These two positions are not remotely contradictory, whatever some of Guo's supporters try to suggest by framing his conviction as a capitulation to China.

Trump remains, on military matters and on NATO, a necessary actor for maintaining Western pressure against authoritarian regimes. But that international firmness should never serve as an alibi for covering up domestic missteps like a lenient pardon for a convicted fraudster.

The real test will be presidential silence or action

The true test of Trump's credibility will not be his speeches on firmness toward China, but rather his decision, or lack of decision, regarding Guo Wengui in the months ahead. A pardon would send a clear message: political loyalty and money matter more than justice for victims.

Conversely, a clear, openly stated refusal of any pardon would send a signal far more consistent with the posture of firmness Trump otherwise claims on the international stage against authoritarian regimes and their networks of influence.

More than a thousand people harmed around the world

Behind the staggering figures and the political debates over a potential pardon, there remain more than a thousand victims scattered around the world who lost often-modest savings believing they were supporting a legitimate anti-communist cause. These people, rarely mentioned in media coverage focused on the political games in Washington, remain the great forgotten party in this case.

Several of them had invested significant sums in financial products tied to Guo Wengui's companies, persuaded by a carefully constructed ideological pitch blending American patriotism with opposition to the Chinese regime.

Uncertain restitution, pardon or not

Even without a presidential pardon, actually recovering the 889 million dollars ordered by the court remains uncertain, since Guo's assets are scattered across multiple shell companies and international jurisdictions. The restitution process could take years, or may never be fully completed.

This reality makes a clear signal from the Trump administration all the more urgent: no pardon should further complicate an already fragile restitution process for victims who have waited years for justice.

A signal that reaches far beyond one man

The Guo Wengui case reaches far beyond the fate of one tycoon sentenced to 30 years in prison. It directly questions the strength of American judicial institutions in the face of political and financial pressure exerted by well-organized networks of influence, capable of mobilizing contacts even within the president's inner circle.

Whether or not Donald Trump chooses to grant a pardon to Guo Wengui in the months ahead, that decision will remain a clear marker of how his administration treats justice when political allies, however dubious, are at stake.

The price of a bad choice

A pardon granted to a man who still refuses to admit he stripped more than a thousand victims of their savings would send a devastating message, far beyond Washington's political circles: that of a two-tiered justice system, where closeness to power can erase even the most thoroughly documented and massive frauds.

Guo Wengui's victims, meanwhile, will keep waiting for the 889 million dollars owed to them, whatever the presidential decision. That, in the end, may be the only thing that should truly matter in this case.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a columnist and analyst. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

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