Yaroslavl burns while Putin negotiates with Trump from a distance

Introduction: one more refinery, one more message sent to Moscow

A strike on the night of July 5 to 6, confirmed through Russian channels

On the night of July 5 to 6, 2026, Ukrainian forces carried out an attack on the Yaroslavl oil refinery, according to information relayed through Russian Telegram channels, including independent outlet Astra. Regional governor Mikhail Yevraev confirmed that more than 70 Ukrainian drones had been shot down over the region, while also reporting a fire at the refinery site and two people injured, according to remarks reported by NPR.

This strike fits into a Ukrainian strategy of energy strangulation pursued for months, methodically targeting the refineries that fuel Russia's war effort, regardless of their distance from the front or their proximity to ongoing diplomatic negotiations. Indeed, that indifference to diplomatic calendars is itself part of the message: Kyiv's targeting decisions are driven by military logic, not by any attempt to soften the mood ahead of talks in Ankara.

A timing that is anything but diplomatic coincidence

The eve of a decisive NATO summit in Ankara

This strike on Yaroslavl comes just hours before a NATO summit scheduled in Ankara, Turkey, set to open on July 7, 2026, according to Reuters. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was set to meet Donald Trump on the sidelines of this summit on July 8 to make the case for greater Western support, a timeline that gives this energy strike a significance extending well beyond the purely military.

According to Reuters, this summit is also expected to finalize an aid package for Ukraine worth roughly 70 billion euros, a sum whose scale shows just how far the financial and military stakes of this diplomatic week extend beyond a simple ceremonial meeting among allies.

Kyiv under bombardment the same week

Seven confirmed dead according to the Telegraph, a toll that could rise

While Ukraine was striking Yaroslavl, the Ukrainian capital itself came under massive attack: at least seven people were killed and dozens wounded in a Russian bombardment of Kyiv, according to The Telegraph. This strike comes just days after a previous attack the preceding Thursday that had already killed 31 people, the deadliest in the Ukrainian capital this year.

President Zelensky explicitly denounced the timing of this new wave of attacks: "Intelligence once again indicates that the Russians are preparing a new massive strike. This is typical of Putin: right after American Independence Day and before the NATO summit in Ankara," he said, according to remarks reported by The Telegraph.

Zelensky's provocative message on Kostyantynivka

A rhetorical offer that exposes Putin's logic

In a striking rhetorical move, Zelensky issued a direct challenge to the Russian president over the city of Kostyantynivka, recently claimed as captured by Russian troops: "If Kostyantynivka were under Russian control, then perhaps Putin would have no problem meeting me there to find a diplomatic path to definitively end this war," he said, according to The Telegraph.

This statement highlights a contradiction Zelensky is seeking to expose publicly: Putin was filmed the preceding Friday being briefed by his troops on the capture of Kostyantynivka, all while continuing, according to Kyiv, to avoid any direct meeting that could genuinely advance a diplomatic settlement of the conflict.

What the Kremlin wants Trump to believe

Ushakov describes a "confident" Russian advance

Kremlin diplomatic adviser Yuri Ushakov described the weekend phone call between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump as "quite constructive," noting that "the American president again confirmed his willingness to work toward a swift end to the fighting," according to remarks reported by The Telegraph. Ushakov added that Putin had briefed Trump on the state of the front, describing "the real situation on the battlefield where Russian armed forces are advancing with confidence, liberating one locality after another."

This rhetoric of "liberation" and confident advance, repeated without nuance by the Kremlin's spokesman, once again illustrates how Moscow seeks to present its invasion of Ukraine as a legitimate reconquest operation rather than what it actually is: a continued war of aggression against a sovereign country.

The North Korean presence, a major strategic signal

Nearly 11,000 soldiers stationed in Kursk oblast

While Western diplomacy focuses on the NATO summit and on the calls between Trump and Putin, another front remains largely under-covered: according to information from the Yonhap news agency, citing South Korea's National Intelligence Service, roughly 11,000 North Korean soldiers, including 10,000 combat troops and 1,000 engineers, were stationed in the Russian oblast of Kursk at the start of 2026, according to Kyiv Independent.

These North Korean troops have suffered roughly 6,000 casualties, killed or wounded, a figure corroborated both by South Korean intelligence and by British defense intelligence services, according to the same sources. Despite these considerable losses, South Korean intelligence notes that the North Korean military has acquired "modern combat tactics" and battlefield data through this direct experience alongside Russian forces.

What Washington is calculating behind this two-speed diplomacy

Military support maintained despite internal political tensions

Despite the regular phone calls between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, the American administration has maintained its concrete military support for Ukraine, a choice several Westerndefenseanalysts interpret as proof that Washingtonclearly distinguishes Trump's diplomatic rhetoric from the operational reality on the ground. The 70-billion-euro aid package discussed in Ankara confirms this continuity of Western support, independent of the phone calls with Moscow.

This two-speed approach, diplomatic on one side and military on the other, illustrates a broader strategic reading of the American position: talking to Putin does not, for now, mean slowing down concrete support for Kyiv, an essential nuance some Western commentators tend to downplay in their reading of the Trump-Putin relationship.

China and Iran are watching this balance of power too

A convergence of authoritarian regimes documented since 2022

Beyond North Korea alone, China and Iran are closely following the evolution of this conflict, each drawing lessons applicable to their own regional ambitions. Iran, a recognized supplier of Shahed drones to Russia, and China, Moscow's main economic partner against Westernsanctions, are closely watching the West's real capacity to sustain its support for Ukraine over time.

This convergence of authoritarian regimes around support for Russia, documented since the 2022 invasion began, turns this war into a resilience test for the entire rules-based international order, far beyond the Ukrainian theater alone. Notably, each of these regimes is extracting a different lesson from the same conflict, whether industrial, military, or purely diplomatic, which makes the stakes of this war far broader than a single contested border.

Conclusion: a week that sums up this entire war

What this week will need to confirm in the days ahead

It will fall to the days following the NATO summit to confirm whether announcements of financial and military support for Ukraineconcretely translate into accelerated deliveries, notably of Patriot systems, or whether they remain, as has too often happened before, diplomatic commitments whose implementation drags on for months.

Strikes, diplomacy, and parallel alliances, on a single timeline

This week of July 5 to 8, 2026, condenses, in just a few days, the essence of this war's dynamic: a Ukraine that keeps methodically striking Russian energy infrastructure, a Russia that intensifies its bombing of Kyiv at the very moment it is negotiating with Washington, and a NATO summit in Ankara that will need to decide whether Western aid to Ukraine speeds up or keeps being negotiated in dribs and drabs.

The presence of North Korean troops in the Kursk oblast is, finally, a reminder that this war no longer pits only Ukraine against Russia, but has become a convergence point for every authoritarian regime watching, testing, and learning, at the expense of Ukrainian lives and the stability of the international order.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my declared biases

I write from a clearlypro-Ukrainian standpoint, convinced that Ukraine'sdefense against the Russian invasion directly serves the security interests of the West. I make no claim to clinical neutrality on this war, but I commit to clearly separating sourced facts from opinions and interpretations, flagged as such in this text's editorial passages.

What I don't know, and my method

I cannot independently confirm the exact extent of the damage caused at the Yaroslavl refinery, since available Russian sources are limited to Telegram channels and Russian government statements that have not been independently verified. This column relies on the primary and secondary sources listed below, consulted on July 6 and 7, 2026.

Sources

Primary sources

Ukraine's Ministry of Defense — official statements

Kyiv Independent — Nearly 11,000 North Korean troops stationed in Kursk oblast, February 2026

Army Inform — coverage of Ukrainian operations

Secondary sources

Ukrainska Pravda — coverage of the July 6, 2026 Russian strikes

The Telegraph — Putin bombs Kyiv as NATO prepares for summit with Trump, July 6, 2026

Reuters — NATO summit in Ankara: who's attending and what to expect, July 6, 2026