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The ColumnAnalysis· No. 175

ANALYSIS: Sword 26 — NATO Is No Longer Deploying, It Is Training to Win

For five years, the flagship exercise of the U.S. Army in Europe was named DEFENDER — standing for Dynamic Employment of Forces

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Key takeaways
  1. For five years, the flagship exercise of the U.S. Army in Europe was named DEFENDER — standing for Dynamic Employment of Forces
  2. Introduction: The name has changed.
  3. From DEFENDER to Sword: More than just a rebranding
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Facts, quotes, and cited links remain in the body. Interpretations are framed as analysis or opinion according to the format.

Introduction: The name has changed. So has the doctrine.

From DEFENDER to Sword: More than just a rebranding

For five years, the flagship exercise of the U.S. Army in Europe was named DEFENDER — standing for Dynamic Employment of Forces to Europe for NATO Deterrence and Enhanced Readiness. The message was clear: to show that the United States could cross the Atlantic, land its troops, and integrate with allies. The ocean crossing as a demonstration of power. Logistics as deterrence. This was the post-Crimea doctrine: visible presence, political reassurance, deployment as a signal.

In April 2026, this paradigm is officially dead. The Sword 26 exercise, launched on April 27 by U.S. Army Europe and Africa (USAREUR-AF) under the command of General Christopher Donahue, is not a simple name change. It is a doctrinal revolution. The new watchword, formulated by Donahue himself: “Sword 26 tests our lethality and our ability to exploit data and AI-enabled warfare at scale to operate with NATO Allies.” The shift is total — from logistics to lethality, from deployment to combat.

Fifteen thousand soldiers, eleven nations, one message to Moscow

Approximately 15,500 American and allied soldiers from 11 nations participated in Sword 26, deployed across 8 countries on NATO's eastern flank: Estonia, Finland, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Some 1,100 pieces of equipment were moved from within the European theater and from the United States. The exercise took place from April 27 to May 31, 2026, articulated around three linked pillars: Saber Strike (Baltic flank), Immediate Response (High North), and Swift Response (deployment of specialized capabilities). All of this within the framework of a new doctrinal concept, dubbed EFDI — Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative.

This is not a routine maneuver. It is the first full-scale test of a doctrine designed to answer a single question: what happens if Russia strikes before transatlantic reinforcements arrive? NATO's answer in 2026 is no longer “we will deploy very quickly.” It is now: “we are already here, and we are ready to win.”

DEFENDER 2020-2025: The doctrine of reassurance, and its limits

The post-Crimea transatlantic paradigm

Launched with great fanfare in 2020, the DEFENDER series had a logic consistent with its time. The illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014 had woken NATO from a long post-Cold War slumber. The initial response from the 2014 Wales Summit was the creation of an enhanced Forward Presence (eFP) in the Baltic states and Poland — multinational battlegroups, visible signals of collective solidarity. DEFENDER fit into this logic: demonstrating that if Russia dared to attack, American tanks could be on the continent within days.

This approach had real political value. It anchored European Allies in the certainty of “Article 5 made in USA.” But it relied on a fragile assumption: that the adversary would allow time for reinforcements to cross the Atlantic, land in ports, integrate into allied structures, and only then enter action. Ukraine, after February 24, 2022, definitively shattered this assumption. Modern warfare does not afford that luxury.

The invasion of Ukraine as a doctrinal eye-opener

The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a series of accelerated decisions within NATO. The Madrid Summit in June 2022 saw Allies approve a new force model, considerably bolstering high-readiness personnel. The battalion-sized battlegroups on the eastern flank were scaled up to the brigade level. New permanent positions were created in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. In September 2025, airspace violations by Russian drones and fighters over Estonia, Finland, Lithuania, Poland, Norway, and Romania led to the launch of Eastern Sentry, a permanent operation with no end date across the entire eastern flank. NATO was building its presence. But something was still missing: the conviction that these forces could win from the very first hours of a conflict.

It is precisely this doctrinal void that Sword 26 has come to fill. In June 2026, NATO also established the Forward Land Forces Finland, the Alliance's ninth multinational battlegroup, led by Sweden. The picture is now complete, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. But presence without a doctrine for victory remains a fragile presence.

The EFDI — When the doctrine of denial replaces the doctrine of presence

A concept built on Ukrainian lessons

The Eastern Flank Deterrence Initiative (EFDI) is at the heart of everything Sword 26 represents. Defined by USAREUR-AF as “a regional NATO initiative, led by Allies and supported by the U.S. Army,” it rests on an architecture of four pillars: low-cost attritable unmanned systems, AI-enabled targeting, multi-layered defenses, and an integrated mission command network using real-time data to accelerate decision-making. This is not just a new list of equipment. It is a new philosophy of combat.

According to the article published by DVIDS regarding V Corps, the EFDI doctrine rests on a fundamental principle: “deterrence on NATO’s eastern flank must be based on denial, not merely presence.” The document developed by V Corps specifies that the challenge is no longer “simply presence, but denial — preventing an aggressor from achieving their objectives from the first moments of conflict.” This semantic shift is a revolution. NATO is no longer seeking to deter by announcing it will be there. It is seeking to deter by proving it can win the first clash.

Artificial intelligence as a force multiplier

AI occupies a central place in the EFDI — not as a technological gadget, but as a decision accelerator in an environment where speed is survival. V Corps has undertaken to integrate an AI large language model to support the military decision-making process (MDMP), aiming to identify blind spots, improve terrain analysis, and accelerate the development of courses of action. The V Corps commander clearly states the objective: “leverage emerging AI capabilities to ease the cognitive load of staff work and accelerate processes to better facilitate shared analysis to decision makers.”

Concretely, HIMARS batteries are now assisted by digital sensor networks that allow AI-enabled sensors to designate targets to fire systems in seconds. The Maven Smart System (MSS) is used for bidirectional data exchange. Mesh networks and self-healing communication architectures ensure the resilience of command links. The 12th Combat Aviation Brigade is experimenting with human-machine teaming between its AH-64 Apache helicopters and unmanned systems. The digital terrain is no longer a supplement — it is the heart of the fight.

Saber Strike 26 — The thousand-kilometer march as a geopolitical message

The 2nd Cavalry Regiment and the logic of the terrain

If Sword 26 is the doctrinal framework, Saber Strike 26 is its most striking physical demonstration. The 2nd Cavalry Regiment (2CR) completed a 1,000-kilometer road march from its German bases to the Bemowo Piskie training area in Poland, before continuing into Lithuania. A thousand kilometers. Column after column of armored vehicles, logistical convoys, and mobile command systems — crossing Germany, Poland, traversing the routes leading to the Suwalki Gap. This is not an exercise in navigation. It is the rehearsal of a precise scenario: consolidating the Baltic flank before the adversary has time to isolate it.

Placed under the command of NATO’s Multinational Division North East (MND-NE) for the “Amber Shock” phase, the 2CR operated within the framework of expanding the battalion battlegroup to the brigade level on the eastern flank. Saber Strike 26 is, according to Grosswald European Defence Intelligence, “the first major USAREUR-AF exercise that explicitly rebrands the transatlantic reinforcement logic in favor of in-theater employment of forces” — the doctrinal admission that European NATO nations can no longer assume that U.S.-based reinforcements will be the operational baseline.

Poland, logistical pivot and watchman of the corridor

Poland occupies a central strategic position in Sword 26 — not only as a host nation, but as the logistical pivot for the entire eastern flank architecture. Polish forces provided full Host Nation Support (HNS), coordinating road, rail, air, and sea transport for international convoys transiting through Polish territory. Exercises in reception, staging, onward movement, and integration (RSOM&I) were conducted at Polish sites, testing the fluidity of procedures that would be critical in the event of a real conflict.

The fire support coordination exercise in Poland put joint targeting and precision fires into practice, reaffirming the key role of American and allied ground forces deployed on Polish soil. Poland is today the allied nation that, through its geography and massive defense investments (the country is aiming for and exceeding 4% of GDP dedicated to defense), best embodies what NATO 2026 seeks to achieve: a credible, forward defense that does not wait for reinforcements.

Immediate Response 26 — The High North as a priority front

Norway and Sweden, new Arctic bastions

The Immediate Response exercise, the Nordic pillar of Sword 26, took place in Norway and Sweden with a focus on combat power in the High North and logistical sustainability in Arctic conditions. U.S. Marines deployed to Trondheim, Norway, before conducting a tactical march to Kvarn, Sweden. The integration of Swedish forces — NATO members since 2024 — into an operational allied command structure represents a strategic transformation that neither Helsinki nor Stockholm took lightly.

In Sweden, at Halmstad, Patriot batteries conducted missile training in coordination with Swedish forces. On Gotland Island, a strategic forward position dominating the Baltic Sea, live-fire exercises, drone operations, security breaches, and medical evacuation drills were carried out. NATO knows that Gotland is the key to the Baltic: whoever holds it can forbid or permit naval reinforcements. Sword 26 stationed forces there. It is a direct message to Moscow.

CBRN and multi-domain resilience in extreme conditions

On Gotland, American soldiers also conducted CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear) training — a reminder that the spectrum of hybrid warfare includes threats that Russia has already utilized (Novichok agents, infrastructure cyberattacks, drones in allied airspace). Multi-Domain Command — Europe deployed High Mobility Balloons to detect and affect adversary targets in the cyber, land, and air domains. This is not science fiction — it is the concrete response to what Ukraine has learned in three years of high-intensity war.

In Finland, at Vuosanka and Kajaani, live-fire exercises and force-on-force training mobilized American and allied contingents in winter and forest conditions faithfully reproducing the terrain of the Russian-Finnish border. Finland shares a 1,340-kilometer border with Russia — NATO’s longest land border with the Russian Federation. Sword 26 treated it for what it is: a potential front line.

Swift Response 26 — Projecting specialized capabilities at zero hour

Strategic mobility as a doctrinal weapon

Swift Response, the third component of Sword 26, focuses on a specific challenge: deploying specialized capabilities from the United States and within the European theater in timeframes compatible with the first hours of a real conflict. The implicit message is brutal: in a scenario of Russian aggression on the Baltic flank, Moscow would count on NATO’s slowness to consolidate territorial gains before the Allies have time to react. Swift Response is the direct answer to that calculation.

Swift Response is not just about transporting equipment. It validates interoperable command and control procedures that allow units from different nations to function as a unified force from the moment they arrive. Medical evacuations by rail and air were tested in Germany and Poland — including the use of Flowcopter FC-100 medical drones for transporting simulated casualties. The logistics chain under combat pressure is no longer a problem to be solved after engagement. It is integrated into the combat exercise itself.

Turkey and expanded interoperability

The official fact sheet for Sword 26 lists among the participants: Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Sweden, Turkey, and the United Kingdom. The Turkish presence deserves attention. Ankara, often perceived as a difficult NATO Ally since 2016, chose to participate in Sword 26. This is a political signal — NATO remains the common home, even with its internal tensions. The technical interoperability between Turkish and American command systems is also a concrete operational issue that Sword 26 allows to be tested at scale.

Italy is also participating in several segments — notably the virtual cyber range in Rome for collaborative cyber-defense operations. This detail reveals the true geographical scope of Sword 26: the exercise does not only concern the eastern flank countries. It concerns the entire NATO apparatus, from cyber centers in the South to the forward posts of the High North. It is the first time a Western exercise of this scale has simultaneously addressed all domains: land, air, cyber, medical, intelligence.

FlyTrap 5.0 — The drone at the center of tactical combat doctrine

Pabradė, Lithuania: The frontline laboratory

It was in the Pabradė Training Area in Lithuania — a few dozen kilometers from the Belarusian border and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad — that the FlyTrap 5.0 project took place from May 1 to May 15, 2026. American infantry soldiers from the 2nd Cavalry Regiment and paratroopers from the British Parachute Regiment worked together to test and integrate anti-drone systems, unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs), FPV drones, and AI-enabled command tools directly into NATO’s front-line operations.

FlyTrap 5.0 is the fifth iteration of this program. It falls under the framework of the EFDI. Its logic is simple and formidable: drones — as Ukraine has learned to its cost and to the benefit of its defenders — have become central to reconnaissance, artillery targeting, route surveillance, and precision strikes. Countermeasures can no longer remain a specialty entrusted to dedicated units. It must become an organic capability for infantry and cavalry formations at the tactical level. FlyTrap 5.0 is the school for this transformation.

Young soldiers at the heart of tomorrow's doctrine

Specialist Arthur Tugman, from the 1st Squadron of the 2nd Cavalry Regiment, is cited in DVIDS reports as an unmanned ground vehicle operator. His mission: transporting equipment, soldiers, aerial drones, and anti-drone systems to the required positions. He is not a drone specialist by training. He is an infantryman who has become the pivot of a new combat chain. Sergeant Connor Henrickson and Captain Brendan Printup, from Echo Troop, worked with experts from several technology companies to test low-cost anti-drone solutions on a Stryker platform in a contested environment.

The doctrinal conclusion is explicit in the official reports: “junior soldiers are at the center of the counter-UAS fight; future doctrine may depend as much on tactical adaptation as on technology.” This is exactly what Ukraine has understood since 2022 — and what NATO is finally integrating on a large scale. The lessons of Bakhmut, Kherson, and the drone campaign on Russian lines are rewriting the manuals from Pabradė to Fort Bragg.

Cyber, the invisible front of Sword 26

Tallinn and Rome: Digital war rooms

Sword 26 is not limited to maneuver grounds and Patriot fire. In Tallinn, Estonia, American and allied forces used Cyber Range 14 (CR14), a state-of-the-art cyber-training facility, to work from May 17 to May 21, 2026, on a realistic scenario of protecting critical infrastructure. The networks that allow allied forces to communicate, move, and sustain their operations are priority targets for the Russian adversary — as years of cyberattacks against Ukraine, Estonia, Finland, and others have demonstrated. Cyber training is not optional in this context. It is existential.

In Rome, a parallel cyber range exercise brought together American and Italian allied forces on the same types of scenarios. The geographical dispersion of these cyber-exercises within Sword 26 is not coincidental: it reflects the reality of the threat, which does not respect land borders. A command network attacked in Italy can paralyze operations in Lithuania. Sword 26 treats the cyber domain as a full-fledged domain of combat, integrated from design into the exercise architecture, and not added as an appendix.

Network resilience as a pillar of the EFDI

The V Corps report on the EFDI is explicit on this point: “mesh networks and self-healing communications architectures” are at the heart of the concept. The ability to maintain a functional command network — even degraded, even under electronic and cyber attack — is the sine qua non for the algorithmic advantage the EFDI seeks to establish. An AI targeting system is worth nothing if the network it relies on is cut in the first minutes of a conflict.

It is with this perspective that Multi-Domain Command — Europe experimented with high-mobility balloons over Gotland to detect and affect targets in the cyber, land, and air domains. These platforms provide persistent coverage that is difficult to neutralize, offsetting the vulnerability of satellites and high-altitude drones to Russian anti-access systems. NATO is building a multi-layered network designed to survive a first strike.

NATO in 2026: Nine battlegroups, a confirmed permanence

From the Baltic flank to the Black Sea: A coherent defense line

As of June 2026, NATO has nine multinational battlegroups on the eastern flank, covering Bulgaria, Estonia, Finland, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Slovakia. The novelty in June 2026 is the official creation of the Forward Land Forces Finland, the ninth group, led by Sweden with contributions from Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Norway, and the United Kingdom. This deployment now covers almost the entire eastern flank, from the Arctic to the Black Sea — a posture NATO hasn't held since the end of the Cold War.

These battlegroups are no longer symbolic. Since the 2022 Madrid Summit decisions, they are transitioning from battalion level to brigade level, with pre-assigned forces, prepositioned equipment, and regional plans approved at the 2023 Vilnius Summit. Germany inaugurated a permanent brigade in Lithuania in May 2025, which will be fully operational with up to 5,000 soldiers by 2027. Canada is completing its persistent presence in Latvia with a brigade of 2,200 soldiers. These are no longer signals. They are combat forces.

Sword 26 in the context of the permanent Sentinels

Sword 26 fits into a broader ecosystem of exercises but also into a context of permanent operations. Since January 2025, Baltic Sentry has been reinforcing the security of underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. Since September 2025, Eastern Sentry has maintained multi-domain vigilance across the entire eastern flank. These three operations — Arctic Sentry, Baltic Sentry, Eastern Sentry — function without an end date. They are NATO’s structural response to a structural threat. Sword 26 is their active operational validation — proof that these permanently deployed forces also know how to win.

In 2025, for the first time since 2014, all Allies reached the target of 2% of GDP dedicated to defense — with many countries going well beyond. Poland exceeds 4%. The Baltic states, Finland, Norway, and Denmark are well above. At the The Hague Summit, Allies took the historic decision to raise the target to 5% of GDP. The NATO of 2026 is not that of 2014, nor even that of 2022. It is an alliance that is regrouping around the conviction that deterrence without operational credibility is not deterrence.

Sword 26 and the Ukrainian lesson: Winning in the first hours

War as a doctrinal argument

There is no Sword 26 without Ukraine. This truth is one that NATO military planners do not need to explain — it is inscribed in every equipment choice, every exercise scenario, every doctrinal priority. The FPV drones of FlyTrap 5.0, the low-cost counter-drone systems, the low-signature HIMARS, the resilient command networks, the targeting AI — all of this was learned, often the hard way, on the battlefields of Ukraine. Ukraine paid in blood for lessons that NATO is now integrating into its exercises. It is a bloody but necessary tribute.

Russian doctrine relied on surprise, mass, and the speed of a political takeover before NATO could react. In Ukraine, this doctrine failed against a resistance that Moscow had not anticipated — and against Western support whose coherence Putin had misjudged. Sword 26 integrates both these lessons: you must be there before the first blow, and you must know how to absorb and turn back the initiative in the first hours. “Denial, not presence.” This is the conclusion V Corps drew from the Ukrainian conflict — and repeats in every public document about the EFDI.

Ukrainian drones at Aurora 26: The alliance in real time

A particularly telling detail: during the Aurora 26 exercise, which ran parallel to Sword 26 on Gotland Island, Ukrainian drone operators participated in maneuvers alongside allied forces. This is not symbolic. It is real-time transfer of expertise — Ukrainians teaching NATO what three years of war have taught them about drone combat in conditions of intense electronic warfare. Zelensky had requested this integration as early as 2022. It is materializing today, on the ground, within the same series of exercises as Sword 26.

This is where the political and strategic dimension of Sword 26 goes beyond the military exercise. It says something important to Kyiv: your allies are learning from you, not just to help you, but to defend themselves. Solidarity with Ukraine is not just generosity — it is also enlightened self-interest. And this reality, Putin can read in every exercise report coming out of Gotland, Pabradė, or Bemowo Piskie.

The doctrinal paradigm shift: From tripwire to defense by denial

From the tripwire to the forward fortress

For decades of the Cold War, NATO's strategy on its eastern flank rested on the “tripwire” concept — symbolic forces whose elimination would automatically trigger the Article 5 mechanism. These forces were not meant to win alone. They were meant to die visibly enough to justify a collective response — potentially nuclear. It was a deterrence of escalation, not a deterrence of combat. In a world where Putin has proven he is ready to suffer colossal economic sanctions to achieve his geopolitical goals, the threat of escalation alone is no longer enough.

The move from DEFENDER to Sword 26 officially marks the transition from the tripwire toward what V Corps calls “defense by denial” — forces that do not serve to trigger a response, but to prevent the adversary from achieving their tactical objectives from the first hours. This distinction is massive. It means that the eastern flank battlegroups are no longer political sensors. They are combat formations capable of stopping an enemy advance, keeping logistical corridors open, conducting limited counter-offensives — and waiting for reinforcements in terrain they still control.

The adversary masses — NATO distributes

The EFDI responds to a specific adversary doctrine: Russian mass and momentum warfare. Moscow has historically bet on the ability to concentrate overwhelming forces at a decisive point before the adversary has time to react. The EFDI response is not to meet mass with mass — NATO will never play that game on the eastern flank, where Russia can mobilize faster. The answer is distribution, resilience, and acceleration of the decision cycle.

According to V Corps documents: “trading an adversary's mass for speed, precision, and adaptability”. Persistent sensor networks, distributed formations difficult to target in mass, precision fire systems that can degrade an adversary concentration before it becomes threatening, AI targeting cycles that last seconds rather than minutes — this is the combat doctrine that Sword 26 put into practice from the High North to Poland. It is not the doctrine of easy victory. It is the doctrine of organized survival that turns the aggressor into a victim of their own mass.

Sword 26 and the allies: Collective credibility on trial

Interoperability as a condition for survival

Sword 26 mobilizes 11 nations in common command systems, joint fire exercises, shared logistics chains, and collective cyber networks. This interoperability is not acquired automatically — it is built exercise after exercise, protocol after protocol, rotation after rotation. The fact that the 2nd Cavalry Regiment can operate under NATO command of the Multinational Division North East, that British paratroopers and American soldiers from the 2CR work together on anti-drone systems in the same tactical zone, that Turkish and Norwegian forces integrate into the same command structure — that is true deterrence: operational coherence.

Russia counts on divisions within NATO. It finances political parties in Europe to weaken allied solidarity. It instrumentalizes debates on burden sharing, on Russian weapons purchases by certain Allies, on historical ambiguities. Sword 26 is the practical response to these instrumentalized divisions: eleven nations maneuvering together, sharing real-time data, adapting to common scenarios. Allied cohesion is not a slogan. It is a military skill that degrades if not maintained.

The credibility of the message to Moscow

The strategic message of Sword 26 to Russia is as simple as it is powerful: you can no longer count on NATO’s slowness to achieve your military objectives. The forces you would face from the first hours are not symbolic trigger forces. They are combat formations trained to deny you the territorial gains that make all negotiation impossible. They are soldiers fighting with AI systems, low-cost attritable drones, precision fire, and resilient command networks. And they spent the entire month of May 2026 proving they know how to do that.

According to Army Recognition, the exercise represents “a critical shift from deterrence by deployment to deterrence by operational readiness.” This phrasing, from specialized defense analysts, is not institutional PR. It is a factual observation of what Sword 26 achieves: credibility is no longer in the transatlantic voyage. It is in the ability to win on the ground, now, with forces already in place.

What Sword 26 doesn't say yet

The blind spots of a doctrine under construction

Sword 26 is impressive. But an honest analysis must identify its limits. The first is that of the pace of technological integration. Targeting AI, attritable drones, mesh networks — all of this is in the phase of experimentation, not generalized deployment. V Corps admits it itself: exercises like Sword 26 serve to “bridge emerging technologies from experimentation to operational use.” There is a gap between what is tested at Pabradė and what is available at scale in all units on the eastern flank. This gap is known to Moscow.

The second limit is that of political coherence. Sword 26 is a military success. But deterrence is not just military — it is also political. Divisions within certain allied governments over support for Ukraine, internal pressures in several European democracies, uncertainties about the coherence of the United States over the long term — these factors reduce the strategic reach of a perfectly executed exercise. An exercise that proves NATO can win militarily does not prove that NATO will remain united politically. And Putin, contrary to popular belief, knows very well how to tell the difference.

Tomorrow's NATO must go further

The third limit is structural: Sword 26 validates existing regional plans, but these plans assume an adversary that attacks conventionally, predictable in form if not in timing. Russian hybrid warfare — disinformation, infrastructure sabotage, operations below the threshold of Article 5, use of proxies — remains partially outside the scope of the exercise. Eastern Sentry responds to this in part. But the EFDI doctrine of denial, as sophisticated as it may be, is a response to a kinetic war, not to a political war of attrition waged over thirty years.

It is these blind spots that NATO must fill in the coming years. Sword 26 is a step — a decisive step, a transformative step, a step that deserves to be hailed for what it is. But the war Putin is waging against the West is not just military. It is also informational, economic, and political. Sword 26 answers one part of the question. The other part, that of democratic resilience, remains fallow.

Conclusion: The sword is drawn — it remains to be seen if we know how to use it

A real, historical, and still incomplete paradigm shift

Sword 26 marks a real doctrinal turning point in NATO's history. The shift from DEFENDER — transatlantic logistics as deterrence — to Sword — operational lethality as deterrence — is not a name change. It is the recognition that the world has changed, that Russia crossed a threshold in 2022 that cannot be uncrossed, and that Europe's collective security now requires forces capable of winning first contact — not just signaling it. The EFDI, with its attritable drones, targeting AI, resilient networks, and distributed formations, is the doctrinal answer to this reality. It is serious. It is robust. It is credible.

But military credibility is only half the equation. The other half is political will — the ability of the Alliance's 32 nations to remain united under the pressure of a prolonged hybrid war, to fund the 5% of GDP promised at The Hague Summit, and to support Ukraine until peace is possible on terms acceptable to Kyiv. Sword 26 has proven that NATO soldiers know how to win. It remains to be proven that their political leaders know how to stay the course. The sword is drawn. What is missing is the resolution to hold it.

Deterrence as a continuous act

Deterrence is not a state — it is a continuous act. It is earned exercise after exercise, investment after investment, difficult decision after difficult decision. Sword 26 is a decisive contribution to this continuous act. The 15,500 soldiers from 11 nations who maneuvered from the High North to Poland did something concrete: they demonstrated to their allies, their adversaries, and their own governments that NATO can not only deploy, but win. That is no small thing. In the state of the world in 2026, it is perhaps the most important act that men and women in uniform can perform.

In Moscow, in the Kremlin offices where Putin receives his intelligence reports, someone has read the Sword 26 debriefs. Someone saw the photos of Danish soldiers on Smöjen Island, of British paratroopers testing drones at Pabradė, of Patriots launched from Halmstad. Someone understood that the calculation that made the invasion of Ukraine possible — the belief that the West would back down, that NATO was too slow, too divided, too fearful — is dying in the training fire of the eastern flank. That is the victory of Sword 26. Silent, technical, doctrinal — but real.

Signed Maxime Marquette, columnist

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Cite this article

Maxime Marquette (2026). ANALYSIS: Sword 26 — NATO Is No Longer Deploying, It Is Training to Win. MadMax. https://mad-max.co/en/article/decryptage-sword-26-l-otan-ne-deploie-plus-elle-s-entraine-a-vaincre-2

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Maxime Marquette
Independent columnist

Maxime Marquette writes most of the analyses and columns published on MadMax — geopolitics, technology, and current events, no filler.

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Analysis5189 words34 min read