Ankara, the summit where NATO must prove it keeps its promises

Introduction: thirty-two leaders gather for a test of credibility

A strategic gathering at the heart of Turkey

The 2026 NATO Summit opens on July 7 and 8 at the Beştepe Presidential Complex in Ankara, bringing together leaders from the 32 member countries of the Atlantic Alliance along with partners from the Gulf and the Indo-Pacific region, according to NATO's official website. This is only the second time Turkey has hosted an Alliance summit since Istanbul in 2004.

U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky are both expected to attend, according to reports from several outlets, including a dinner hosted by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in honor of the Ukrainian leader, confirming the weight given to the war in Ukraine in this summit's discussions.

One year after The Hague's historic turning point

This summit is explicitly meant to take stock of the commitments made at the 2025 Hague Summit, where Allies pledged to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, a historic target broken down into 3.5% for core defense spending and 1.5% for broader investments tied to resilience, cybersecurity and infrastructure.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte summed up the central challenge of this gathering: turning financial commitments into concrete military capabilities, a goal that goes beyond simple budget accounting to tackle the far harder question of actual defense industrial output.

Support for Ukraine, the summit's stated priority

Additional billions expected for Kyiv

According to a European Parliament report, Allies were discussing, in early June, a new military assistance package worth 70 billion euros set to be announced at the Ankara summit, of which about 30 billion could come from the European Union's90-billion-euro loan. This announcement would add to the 45 billion dollars in security assistance Ukraine already received from its partners in 2025, a nearly 30% increase over the previous year.

President Volodymyr Zelensky has argued that this support must remain substantial, predictable and sustained, a demand directly tied to the critical needs Kyiv has identified in its ongoing resistance against a Russian invasion now entering its fifth year.

The PURL mechanism, a tool that has proven itself

The PURL mechanism, the priority list of Ukrainian needs, has already mobilized more than 6.5 billion dollars worth of military equipment from American stockpiles, of which about 2 billion dollars was directly financed by NATO Allies, with new commitments expected at this Ankara summit.

This financing mechanism represents a model several Western analysts consider particularly effective, since it combines the responsiveness of existing American stockpiles with European financing, ensuring faster delivery of critical equipment to Ukrainian forces on the ground.

The touchy question of transatlantic burden-sharing

American criticism of European commitment

The summit takes place against a backdrop of persistent tensions within the Alliance, particularly tied to criticism from the Trump administration over what it sees as insufficient involvement by some Allies in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, according to Reuters. These frictions highlight the need for Europeans to concretely demonstrate their willingness to carry a greater share of the collective security burden.

Secretary General Mark Rutte stated that European Allies and Canada spent an additional 90 billion dollars on defense in 2025 compared with the previous year, bringing the total to more than 570 billion dollars, a figure that reflects a real effort but one Washington still considers insufficient given the scale of today's security challenges.

Spain, the reluctant holdout on the new 5% target

According to Politico, Spain continues to refuse to fully commit to the 5% of GDP defense spending target, a resistance that once again highlights the Atlantic Alliance's chronic difficulty in achieving full and complete unanimity on its most ambitious financial commitments.

This Spanish reluctance, though a minority position among the 32 members, illustrates a recurring weakness in NATO: the difficulty of turning symbolic collective commitments into binding obligations uniformly respected by all its members, a challenge the Ankara summit will have to confront head-on.

Erdoğan's Turkey, an ambitious host with its own demands

Clearly stated Turkish expectations

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has used his country's position as host to voice specific demands, notably lifting restrictions on defense industry trade and greater Turkish involvement in European security initiatives, according to statements reported by Reuters on June 29, 2026.

Erdoğan also noted that Turkey ranks among the top five contributors to NATO missions and operations, while calling for greater recognition of his country's strategic role in securing the Alliance's southern flank, a legitimate position given Ankara's sensitive geography between Europe, the Middle East and the Caucasus.

An unprecedented defense industry forum

The summit will also host, on July 7, the first NATO Defense Industry Forum, an event bringing together political leaders, military officials and industry executives to discuss progress toward the historic 5% of GDP target and how to turn that investment into concrete industrial output, according to NATO's official website.

This forum reflects a notable shift in the Alliance's doctrine: explicit recognition that collective defense is no longer just about military budgets, but now depends just as much on the robustness of Western industrial production chains against adversaries who have themselves massively mobilized their wartime industrial base.

Heightened security amid multiple tensions

An exceptional security operation in Ankara

Turkish authorities have put in place a massive security operation for this summit, with severe access restrictions around major roads, airports and the presidential complex, along with a ban on demonstrations, concerts and graduation ceremonies for the entire duration of the event, according to the Associated Press. Turkey even opened a new VIP airport, converted from a former military airfield, specifically to receive NATO leaders.

This unprecedented security mobilization reflects the scale of today's geopolitical tensions, from Russia's war in Ukraine to the lingering fallout of the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, and the continuing instability in Gaza, all issues that will weigh directly on discussions among Allied leaders in Ankara.

An agenda broadened to Middle East crises

Erdoğan indicated the summit would also address the conflicts in Iran, Ukraine and Gaza, in line with NATO's so-called 360-degree approach to security, which now refuses to artificially compartmentalize the different crisis theaters the Alliance must handle simultaneously.

This comprehensive approach reflects an important strategic realization: European security can no longer be considered independently of dynamics in the Middle East or the Indo-Pacific region, where China, Iran, Russia and North Korea are increasingly coordinating their strategic interests hostile to the Western order.

Persistent disagreements with Washington over Iran

The Strait of Hormuz, a transatlantic sticking point

Recent friction between Washington and several European Allies over what is seen as insufficient involvement in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran could weigh on the summit's overall atmosphere, even though the official agenda remains focused on defense spending and support for Ukraine.

These tensions serve as a reminder that the Atlantic Alliance, even united on the Ukrainian file, remains cut through by real divergences over how responsibilities are shared in the face of simultaneous crises in the Middle East, a challenge President Trump has repeatedly stressed in recent weeks.

American pressure that pushes toward action

This American pressure, however uncomfortable it may be for some European Allies, has the merit of forcing a necessary clarification of everyone's actual responsibilities within NATO, preventing collective defense from resting disproportionately on the shoulders of the United States alone.

The Ankara summit thus offers an opportunity to clarify this division of labor, a difficult but necessary exercise to ensure the Alliance's long-term durability against threats multiplying simultaneously across several distinct geographic theaters.

The Chinese threat, the summit's silent backdrop

Vigilance that extends beyond the Atlantic

Although the official agenda of the Ankara summit focuses on Ukraine, the Middle East and defense spending, the presence of partners from the Indo-Pacific region, grouped under the name Indo-Pacific Four (Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand), reflects NATO's growing awareness of the strategic threat posed by China.

This expanded participation confirms that the Atlantic Alliance can no longer afford to think of its security in a purely European vacuum, given how closely the strategic interests of Beijing, Moscow, Tehran and Pyongyang now converge in a global challenge to the Western-led international order.

Strengthening Indo-Pacific cooperation

The presence of these Asian partners at the foreign-minister level during the Ankara summit reflects a concrete desire to build bridges between European security and that of the Indo-Pacific region, two theaters now considered inseparable by the most clear-eyed Western strategists.

This growing strategic convergence between Europe and Asia against authoritarian regimes stands, over time, as one of the most significant developments in Western foreign policy this decade, a clear signal to Beijing that its regional ambitions will not go unnoticed in Brussels or Washington.

Zelensky in Ankara, symbol of a Ukraine that refuses to bend

A presence that carries more weight than words

President Volodymyr Zelensky's expected attendance at the Ankara summit, confirmed by several diplomatic sources and reported by Turkish media, goes far beyond mere protocol symbolism: it reminds every Allied leader present that the war in Ukraine remains the existential priority of European security, well ahead of any other item on the summit's official agenda.

The honorary dinner hosted by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in his honor, a powerful diplomatic gesture from a country that has always maintained a complicated relationship with Moscow, reflects the near-unanimous recognition, within the Atlantic Alliance, of the Ukrainian president's courage and legitimacy in the face of the Russian aggression that has struck his country for more than four years now.

A resistance that commands Western respect

While some European capitals still hesitate over the exact scale of their financial contribution, the simple presence of Zelensky in Ankara serves as a reminder of an inescapable truth: it is Ukraine that continues to pay, every single day, the price in blood to contain Russian expansionism, while the West still debates budget percentages and investment timelines.

This asymmetry between Ukrainian sacrifice on the ground and Western bureaucratic hesitation should, according to several analysts cited in the defense trade press, accelerate rather than slow the conclusion of concrete agreements at this summit, given how undeniably urgent the Ukrainian file remains, on both humanitarian and strategic grounds, for all 32 Allies.

Conclusion: Ankara, a test the West cannot afford to fail

A chance to demonstrate renewed unity

The Ankara summit represents a crucial opportunity for NATO to show that its historic financial commitments from The Hague are actually translating into tangible military capabilities, at a time when the Atlantic Alliance's credibility is being closely watched by both its adversaries and its own publics, weary after years of rising military spending.

The persistent tensions, whether Spain's reluctance on the 5% target, American criticism over burden-sharing, or Turkish demands for recognition of its role, must not obscure the essential point: the absolute necessity of maintaining a united front against Russia and its authoritarian allies.

A decisive moment for the future of support for Ukraine

Beyond the numbers and percentages, this summit will largely determine the trajectory of Western support for Ukraine in the months ahead, at a critical time when Kyiv needs, more than ever, stable and predictable funding guarantees to keep resisting Russian aggression and to negotiate, when the moment comes, from a position of strength rather than weakness.

Whether this Ankara summit is remembered in history as the one where NATO managed to turn its promises into concrete action, or as just one more communications exercise, will depend largely on the real political will of the 32 leaders gathered in the Turkish capital on July 7 and 8.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

My acknowledged biases and my method

I am an openly pro-Western, pro-NATO columnist, convinced that strengthening the Atlantic Alliance and sustaining continued support for Ukraine remain essential strategic priorities against Russia and its authoritarian allies. This conviction leads me to commend the Trump administration's efforts on the military and collective-defense front in this specific dossier.

I relied on NATO's official website for the dates and location of the summit, as well as articles from Reuters, the Associated Press, Forbes and the European Parliament to document the agenda and financial stakes of this gathering.

What I don't know

I cannot predict with certainty the exact amount of the financial announcements that will be made at the summit, nor whether all 32 Allies will reach full consensus on burden-sharing and the 5% of GDP target.

Nor do I know the precise content of the bilateral discussions planned between President Trump and President Erdoğan, as these exchanges had not been made public in detail at the time this article was written.

Sources

Primary sources

NATO, Overview - 2026 NATO Summit in Ankara — July 2026

NATO, NATO Summit Media Advisory — April 22, 2026

Secondary sources

Reuters, Turkey's Erdogan says NATO summit must emphasise unity and resilience — June 29, 2026

Associated Press, Turkey's NATO summit security: Police deployment and restrictions — July 1, 2026

Forbes, What Defense Leaders Will Discuss At The 2026 NATO Summit — July 1, 2026

The Straits Times, NATO leaders to gather in Ankara, aiming to smooth over tensions with Trump — July 3, 2026