Trump Sinks Deeper Into Unpopularity Ahead of 2026 Midterms

Introduction: a president below the waterline

A number that won't move

Four months before the 2026 midterm elections, Donald Trump is stuck in territory few American presidents have seen at this stage of their term. According to the New York Times aggregator, as of July 1st, only 39% of Americans approve of his performance, against 58% who disapprove, according to a USA Today compilation published the same day. Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin arrives at an almost identical result: 39.4% favorable opinions against 57.5% unfavorable.

This is not a polling accident. It is a trend that has held for months, confirmed by a mosaic of independent pollsters that, despite their distinct methodologies, all converge on the same verdict: the majority of the country has stopped trusting its president.

Why this number matters

An approval rating under 40% heading into midterm elections is historically a warning sign for the party in power. Republicans know it, and several party strategists are privately starting to raise the prospect of blue waves in districts once considered safe.

The spring Reuters/Ipsos poll had already captured this slide, with a floor of 34% approval in late April, a record low for Trump's second term, according to a Reuters survey. Since then, the numbers have crept up slightly without ever returning to positive ground.

The Iran war, a political millstone

A conflict that keeps costing more

The Iran war weighs heavily in this decline. Since it broke out, it has become the symbol of a military engagement that most Americans consider poorly managed. The June Reuters/Ipsos poll confirms it: 70% of respondents disapprove of the White House's handling of the cost of living amid a prolonged war, according to a Moneycontrol analysis.

The June Forbes/AP-NORC poll, published after the announcement of a preliminary deal with Tehran, shows that specific approval of the handling of the Iran file remains frozen at 34%, a figure that hasn't moved in weeks despite diplomatic efforts, according to Forbes.

The political price of an unwanted war

What these numbers tell is the story of an American public exhausted by military adventures with no clear end. Unlike earlier conflicts where public opinion rallied, at least temporarily, around the president, this war has never generated a surge of national unity.

The New York Times/Siena poll already noted in May an approval rating of 37%, the lowest of his second term, largely attributable to this unpopular conflict, according to the New York newspaper.

The cost of living, the silent fracture

Inflation that won't loosen its grip

Beyond Iran, it is the everyday economy that is undermining presidential popularity. Gas prices, grocery bills, housing: every indicator of daily life feeds the discontent. A poll circulated in March already noted a record disapproval rate tied to soaring fuel prices combined with the ongoing war.

The July 1st USA Today poll drives the point home: 60% of Americans believe Trump is not focused on top priorities, a sign that the gap between the presidential agenda and citizens' real concerns has widened.

Republicans growing nervous ahead of the vote

This perception of disconnect worries even the ranks of the Republican Party. Several members of Congress have started publicly distancing themselves on economic issues, refusing to systematically defend the presidential record in front of their constituents.

The May Marist poll, conducted while the country was still at war, showed an overall approval rating of 37%, with a specific deterioration on economic management.

An electoral base slowly eroding

Immigration, the last refuge

There remains one area where Trump retains a stronger base: immigration. The New York Times/Siena noted in May that his approval on this issue remained stable at 41%, well above his overall average. It's the last pillar preventing an even steeper fall.

But this pillar clearly isn't enough to offset losses elsewhere. The polls converge: the gap between approval and disapproval, what's called net approval, remains firmly negative, around -17.8 according to Silver Bulletin as of July 1st.

The midterms, a real-world test

Historically, a president with an approval rating under 40% heading into midterms sees his party lose an average of several dozen seats in the House of Representatives. Democratic strategists are watching these numbers with growing optimism, convinced that a wave could sweep through again.

The generic ballot already favors Democrats by several points according to some aggregators, another sign of the current Republican fragility.

The weight of a permanent war against institutions

A presidency at war with its own checks and balances

Part of this unpopularity is also explained by Trump's governing style, marked by constant clashes with the courts, the Federal Reserve, and even some members of his own camp. This combative approach is wearing down part of the moderate electorate.

Americans, including some Republican sympathizers, are growing tired of a presidency that seems to constantly seek confrontation rather than the resolution of concrete problems.

Institutional trust in decline

This climate of permanent confrontation feeds a broader sense of distrust toward institutions as a whole, including the presidency itself. It's a vicious cycle that fuels the ongoing popularity decline.

USPollingData's figures for April already showed a net gap of -6.4 points, with significant variations depending on the pollster, some like Rasmussen showing more favorable numbers, revealing a methodological polarization almost as strong as the political polarization itself.

The West needs leadership, not chaos

A weakened America destabilizes the entire Western camp

Here is where I must be honest with you: I deeply believe the West needs a strong, stable United States to counter the ambitions of Beijing, Moscow, Tehran, and Pyongyang. An American president mired in a domestic trust crisis has less room to defend Western interests abroad.

It's a cruel paradox: Trump, who positions himself as a bulwark against the West's geopolitical adversaries, is watching his own domestic legitimacy erode at the very moment when that firmness would be most needed.

The necessary evil put to the ballot test

I still believe that, despite his countless flaws, an American presidency firm toward its strategic adversaries remains preferable to a return to isolationism or diplomatic naivety. But that firmness loses credibility if it isn't backed by a majority of American citizens.

The 2026 midterms will thus be a decisive test, not only for Trump's future, but for America's ability to project coherent strength against authoritarian regimes watching, with undisguised interest, every sign of Western democratic fragility.

Democrats, caught between opportunity and fragmentation

An open road, but a divided party

The current situation theoretically offers an open road to Democrats, but their own party remains split by internal divisions, between the progressive wing and the moderate wing. This fragmentation could limit their ability to fully capitalize on presidential unpopularity.

Some Democratic candidates prefer a line focused on the economy and cost of living, while others place more emphasis on issues of democratic governance and presidential overreach.

The risk of a win by default

A Democratic win in the midterms, if it happens, would risk being more of a punishment vote against Trump than an enthusiastic embrace of a clear alternative program. This kind of victory, while real, carries its own fragilities going forward.

Strategists on both sides know the next four months will be crucial in shaping the final perception of undecided voters.

Polls, imperfect but revealing mirrors

A rare convergence among pollsters

What stands out in this sequence is the remarkable convergence among pollsters as different as The New York Times/Siena, Reuters/Ipsos, AP-NORC, and Silver Bulletin. All, despite distinct methodologies, place presidential approval within a narrow range between 34% and 40%.

This convergence makes it hard to dispute the underlying trend, even though some pollsters more favorable to the Republican camp, like Rasmussen, continue to post more lenient numbers.

What the numbers don't say

National polls, however rigorous, don't always capture the local dynamics that will actually decide the midterms' outcome. Some districts remain fiercely loyal to Trump despite the national trend, which complicates any simplistic projection.

State-by-state polling will need to be watched closely in the coming months to precisely gauge the scale of a possible shift.

China and Russia are watching closely

A window of opportunity for strategic adversaries

It would be naive to believe that Beijing and Moscow aren't watching this American political instability with keen interest. A president weakened at home is potentially more vulnerable to outside pressure, and authoritarian regimes know how to exploit that kind of window.

China, in particular, continues its influence and provocation maneuvers in the South China Sea, testing American resolve at a moment when it might appear distracted by domestic challenges.

North Korea and Iran, collateral beneficiaries

Likewise, North Korea and Iran could be tempted to intensify their respective provocations, calculating that a president mired in a domestic popularity crisis will have less political room to respond firmly.

It is precisely in this context that the solidity of the Western front becomes absolutely crucial, independent of the popularity fluctuations of any one leader.

Ukraine, a collateral hostage of American domestic politics

Support for Kyiv indirectly depends on this dynamic

A politically weakened American president could be tempted to reduce his commitment to Ukraine for electoral reasons, seeking to appease a base tired of military spending abroad. It's a real risk I cannot ignore.

Yet Volodymyr Zelensky's Ukraine continues to demonstrate, every day, its heroic resolve in the face of Russian aggression, and deserves unwavering Western support, regardless of electoral calculations in Washington.

The test of Western credibility

If the polls keep deteriorating, pressure for a gradual American disengagement could grow, which would be a major strategic betrayal of an ally fighting for the values the West claims to defend.

The midterms are thus becoming, indirectly, a referendum on the long-term reliability of America's commitment to its most exposed allies.

The media's role in shaping public perception

Omnipresent coverage that amplifies every number

The proliferation of polls, relayed continuously by dozens of outlets, creates an amplification effect that can itself influence public perception. Every new number becomes a media event, sometimes artificially reinforcing certain trends.

This media overexposure to approval data contributes to a form of information fatigue among part of the electorate, which can translate into a paradoxical civic disengagement.

The danger of democratic weariness

This weariness poses a real danger to American democratic vitality, regardless of which political camp benefits. An electorate exhausted by permanent political turmoil risks disengaging from the electoral process itself.

This is an issue that goes far beyond Trump's popularity alone and calls into question the very resilience of the American democratic system in the face of extreme, ongoing polarization.

The coming months will be decisive

The levers the White House could pull

Between now and November, the Trump administration could attempt several maneuvers to boost its popularity: accelerating a resolution of the Iran file, announcing targeted economic measures, or multiplying public appearances showcasing real or perceived diplomatic successes.

The question remains whether these efforts, if implemented, will be enough to reverse a trend so deeply entrenched in public opinion over several consecutive months.

An international context that leaves no respite

Between persistent tensions with China, the war in Ukraine that continues to rage, and unpredictable developments in the Middle East, the international calendar leaves an American presidency little room to focus exclusively on its own domestic electoral comeback.

It is this convergence of simultaneous crises, domestic and foreign, that makes Trump's current situation particularly precarious, four months from a vote that could redefine the balance of power in Washington.

A precedent that recalls other weakened presidencies

Lessons from recent history

Other American presidents have seen similar approval ratings at this stage of their term, with often severe electoral consequences for their party. Recent political history is full of examples where persistent unpopularity translated into crushing defeats at the midterms.

This historical parallel is no guarantee of mechanical repetition, but it offers a useful framework for understanding the dynamics currently at work within the American electorate.

The singularity of the Trump moment

What distinguishes the current situation, however, is the unique combination of an unpopular foreign war, persistent inflation, and a confrontational governing style that further polarizes an already deeply divided country.

This convergence of negative factors makes Trump's situation particularly delicate, without exact precedent in recent American political history.

The Zelensky factor and Western credibility at stake

A striking contrast with Ukrainian leadership

While Washington gets bogged down in its polling squabbles, Volodymyr Zelensky continues to embody, on the ground, a constant, sacrificial wartime leadership. This contrast between an American president mired in his own popularity and a Ukrainian president gambling his nation's survival every single day deserves to be stressed forcefully.

The courage of the Ukrainian people, battered by the bombardments of Vladimir Putin and his army, should never depend on American electoral swings. Yet that is precisely the geopolitical reality Ukraine has faced since the start of this war of aggression.

The need for constant Western commitment

European allies must, more than ever, shoulder a growing share of the burden, regardless of the outcome of the American midterms. This long-neglected European strategic autonomy is becoming an absolute urgency in the face of political uncertainty in Washington.

This is one of the great lessons of this sequence: the West can no longer depend exclusively on the internal political stability of a single country, however powerful, to guarantee its collective security against Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

Conclusion: a test of truth for American democracy

A verdict that goes beyond Trump himself

The November 2026 midterms will not only be a verdict on Donald Trump himself, but on the American political system's ability to self-correct in the face of governance a majority of citizens consider unsatisfactory. The current numbers, convergent and robust, paint a perilous electoral landscape for the Republican camp.

Whether one favors or criticizes this presidency, one must recognize that American democracy remains alive as long as these mechanisms of electoral accountability continue to function normally. In the end, it is American voters, and them alone, who will decide whether this presidency deserves a second wind or a resounding punishment.

The West cannot afford prolonged instability

For my part, I continue to believe that the West needs stable American leadership to effectively counter the ambitions of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. This domestic political instability, if it persists, weakens the entire Western security architecture we have spent decades building.

The coming months will tell whether this erosion of trust translates into a major electoral shift, or whether Trump, against all odds, manages to turn around a situation that today appears deeply compromised.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

Who I am and my acknowledged biases

I am a columnist-analyst for mad-m.ca, pro-Ukraine, pro-West, and convinced that firmness toward Moscow, Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang remains necessary for global security. I consider Trump a necessary evil for the West, which does not stop me from rigorously documenting his domestic political difficulties.

My analysis relies exclusively on polls published by recognized pollsters. I never claim to hold privileged or confidential information about presidential intentions.

What I don't know, and my method

I cannot predict with certainty the outcome of the 2026 midterms, nor the future evolution of presidential popularity. Polls are snapshots, not prophecies, and unforeseen events could quickly change these dynamics.

My method consists of systematically cross-referencing several independent sources before putting forward a number or a trend, and always flagging methodological discrepancies between pollsters when they exist.

Sources

Primary sources

Trump approval rating today — June 30, 2026

60% say Trump isn't focused on top issues — USA Today, July 1, 2026

Trump approval sinks to record low — Reuters, April 28, 2026

Secondary sources

Trump's Approval Sinks Amid Unpopular War — New York Times, May 19, 2026

Trump Approval Rating: Stagnant On Iran And The Economy — Forbes, June 19, 2026

Trump approval dips near historic low — Moneycontrol, June 9, 2026

President Trump While at War, May 2026 — Marist Poll