In Ankara, NATO tries to patch things up with an unpredictable Trump

Introduction: a summit under heavy diplomatic strain

Thirty-two leaders gather to cool things down

On July 7 and 8, 2026, heads of state from the Atlantic Alliance are gathering in Ankara, Turkey, hoping to ease the considerable friction that has built up with Donald Trump's administration over the past several months. According to Reuters, Europeans are hoping to set aside their disputes with the American president over Iran and Greenland, while demonstrating that they are taking on a larger share of the continent's defense as Washington scales back its commitments to the alliance.

The summit brings together 32 leaders from member states, along with representatives from Gulf partners and the Asia-Pacific region, in a context where Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is hosting the event while insisting on the need to preserve the alliance's solidarity amid growing internal tensions.

A mood described as "alive but a little bruised"

A European diplomat quoted by Reuters summed up the alliance's current state in striking terms: "alive and well, but a little bruised." That phrase captures the mood on the eve of the summit, where European officials are secretly hoping to replicate the diplomatic success of last year's Hague summit, without being able to count on it this time.

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has himself acknowledged that the transatlantic alliance needs to be "rebalanced for the better," a statement that reflects the pressing need to redefine burden-sharing between American and European allies in an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment.

The roots of tension between Trump and his European allies

The war in Iran, a catalyst for discord

The most severe tensions between Donald Trump and European leaders stem directly from the war in Iran, a conflict that upended the global economy without Washington genuinely consulting its European allies before acting. That absence of coordination has deeply angered several capitals, which accuse the American administration of unilateralism on a file with major economic and security consequences for the entire continent.

European officials also fear that Donald Trump may use the summit to vent his frustration at Europeans, whom he considers insufficiently engaged in supporting American military operations tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz during the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran.

Greenland, a provocation that will not fade

Donald Trump's repeated threats to seize Greenland, territory belonging to Denmark, a founding NATO member, remain a deep source of irritation for European allies as a whole. This territorially aggressive rhetoric toward an alliance partner illustrates, according to several diplomats, the chronic unpredictability that now defines American foreign policy under this administration.

The American president has also frequently criticized NATO itself, going so far as to post on his Truth Social platform that the United States was spending money to protect alliance members "without getting anything out of it," a statement that revived European fears about the solidity of America's commitment to Article 5 of the founding treaty.

Article 5 questioned by Trump himself

A doubt that shakes the alliance's foundations

Even more troubling, Donald Trump has suggested that the United States would not necessarily have to honor its commitment to help a NATO member country under attack, thereby calling into question the founding principle of collective defense enshrined in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. That statement sent shockwaves through European capitals, which have regarded this clause as the ultimate guarantee of their collective security since 1949.

At last year's Hague summit, however, Donald Trump had reaffirmed American commitment to the 32-member alliance and its mutual defense pact, a rhetorical reversal that illustrates the troubling inconsistency of his position on a question existential to Western security.

An American military drawdown that worries the continent

The United States has also announced troop withdrawals from Europe, reduced the forces assigned to NATO defense plans, and launched a six-month review of its military presence on the continent. These cuts touch an aircraft carrier, refueling planes, fighter jets, and drones — capabilities essential to the Western defensive posture against Russia.

This gradual reduction of the American military footprint in Europe is forcing European allies and Canada to take on growing responsibility for the continent's conventional defense, in close coordination with the United States, but with markedly greater strategic autonomy born of necessity rather than choice.

Defense spending targets at the heart of the summit

A historic leap in European military budgets

Despite these tensions, European NATO members and Canada spent $90 billion more on defense in 2025 than the previous year, pushing total spending past $570 billion. That dramatic increase reflects a real, if belated, recognition of the need to strengthen European military capabilities in the face of the persistent Russian threat.

The Ankara summit is set to formalize an ambitious new target: raising core defense spending, including weapons and troop levels, to 3.5% of GDP by 2035, a considerable jump from the old 2% target that had prevailed within the alliance for years.

A broader track for cybersecurity and infrastructure

Added to this main target is a further commitment of 1.5% of GDP devoted to broader defense-related investments, notably strengthening cybersecurity, a domain that has become critical given the rising number of cyberattacks attributed to hostile state actors such as Russia, China, and North Korea.

This spending boost is explicitly aimed at converting these additional investments into genuinely operational combat capabilities, and at substantially expanding the defense industrial capacity of member countries, a long-term undertaking that will take years to fully bear fruit.

Continued support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion

A commitment reaffirmed despite the uncertainty

Leaders gathered in Ankara are expected to commit to continuing to fund weapons for Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invasion, sending a clear signal of ongoing support for Kyiv despite tensions within the alliance. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will attend a dinner hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan on the summit's sidelines, a symbolically important presence for keeping the Ukrainian cause visible.

This renewed support comes at a critical moment in the conflict, as Vladimir Putin continues his deadly offensives despite the heavy losses suffered by his army, and as Ukraine desperately needs an uninterrupted supply of Western weapons to sustain its resistance.

Fear of a gradual American pullback

Despite these verbal commitments, several analysts worry that the reduction of American troops and equipment in Europe could end up indirectly affecting NATO's ability to effectively support the Ukrainian war effort, particularly in intelligence, logistics, and strategic coordination that only the United States can provide at that scale.

This concern is fueling European calls for greater strategic autonomy, with some leaders arguing the continent can no longer afford to depend entirely on Washington's fluctuating goodwill to secure its eastern borders.

Erdogan's key diplomatic role as summit host

Turkey bets on unity and solidarity

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has clearly laid out his country's expectations for this summit, declaring that "our main expectation from the summit is to achieve outcomes that preserve the national security sensitivities of allies and strengthen the alliance's spirit of solidarity and unity." That statement, made on June 29, 2026, illustrates the role Turkey intends to play as mediator and responsible host amid this backdrop of internal tension.

Erdogan also indicated that the wars in Iran, Ukraine, and Gaza would all be addressed at the summit, making Ankara the stage for a convergence of major geopolitical crises affecting every member of the alliance simultaneously.

Turkish demands on defense trade

The Turkish president also used the occasion to call for lifting restrictions on defense industry trade, stating that "if we want to fight the trials we face, we must lift restrictions on defense industry trade while ensuring balanced and fair burden-sharing." He also denounced the fact that the "indispensable benefits that Turkey brings to European security are sometimes overlooked," a thinly veiled criticism of his Western partners.

Turkey is also demanding more support from its allies to end the insurgency by the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which has lasted more than forty years, while expressing its willingness to fully participate in every European defense and security initiative.

Fractured personal ties between Trump and his counterparts

Meloni and Starmer, two damaged relationships

The war in Iran has considerably damaged personal relations between Donald Trump and several European leaders, notably Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and outgoing British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, two figures who had previously maintained relatively cordial ties with the American president. This deterioration illustrates the scale of the diplomatic damage caused by American unilateralism on the Iranian file.

European officials are hoping that the sturdier personal relationships Donald Trump maintains with Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Secretary General Mark Rutte will ensure the summit runs smoothly, though no guarantee can be given given the American president's chronic unpredictability.

A fragile ceasefire that could upend everything

The situation in Iran remains under a fragile ceasefire that could collapse at any moment, a scenario that, should it materialize during the summit, risks completely overshadowing the other discussions planned in Ankara. NATO officials nonetheless stress that the vast majority of allies honored their commitments by authorizing the use of their airspace and bases during the conflict with Iran.

This clarification is meant to be reassuring in the face of American accusations that some European allies failed to sufficiently contribute to the military effort during the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a persistent point of friction that could resurface in bilateral discussions in Ankara.

Major arms deals expected in Ankara

Tens of billions of dollars at stake

Beyond the diplomatic discussions, the Ankara summit is also expected to be an occasion for signing arms deals valued at tens of billions of dollars, a concrete demonstration that the financial commitments announced are actually translating into industrial contracts and real military capabilities across member countries.

These arms deals also reflect the continued boom in the Western defense industry, which is benefiting directly from the massive rise in European and Canadian military budgets seen since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

A defense industry in full expansion

This growth in the Western defense industry benefits major American manufacturers and European companies alike, as the latter now seek to reduce their historic dependence on American military equipment by building their own sovereign industrial capabilities, an objective explicitly backed by several European governments.

This gradual industrial empowerment of Europe in matters of defense could, over time, fundamentally reshape the traditional balance of the Atlantic alliance, in which the United States has long dominated the production and supply of military equipment to its partners.

The joint threat from China, Russia, and their allies

An increasingly coordinated authoritarian axis

The Ankara summit is unfolding in a geopolitical context where China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea increasingly resemble a coordinated axis of authoritarian regimes seeking to challenge the international order the West has dominated since the end of the Second World War. This convergence of threats justifies, according to several defense analysts, the urgency of the Western military investments currently under discussion in Ankara.

China remains, in the eyes of many Western strategists, the most significant long-term threat to the liberal international order, largely because of its considerable economic power and its territorial ambitions in the Indo-Pacific region, an issue that extends well beyond NATO's strictly European scope.

An alliance that must think beyond the Atlantic

The presence of representatives from Gulf and Asia-Pacific partners at the Ankara summit reflects a growing recognition within NATO that Western security can no longer be conceived in isolation, purely through the traditional Atlantic lens, but must now account for the challenges posed by revisionist powers active across several continents at once.

This strategic evolution, though still embryonic, could mark an important turning point in how the West conceives of its collective security in the face of increasingly interconnected threats spanning Europe, the Middle East, and Asia.

Internal criticism of American leadership

Growing doubt over Washington's reliability

Several European diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, express growing doubt about the long-term reliability of the United States as the undisputed leader of the Atlantic alliance, a concern fueled directly by Donald Trump's erratic decisions on issues as varied as Greenland, Iran, and NATO funding itself.

This gradual erosion of trust in Washington is pushing several European capitals to accelerate their own independent defense plans, a trend that, if it holds in the years ahead, could fundamentally redefine the very nature of the transatlantic alliance.

A necessary Trump despite his excesses

Despite these legitimate criticisms of Donald Trump's unpredictability, it must be acknowledged that the pressure he has exerted on European allies to raise their defense spending has produced concrete, measurable results, notably the historic $90 billion increase seen in 2025. This inherent contradiction of his presidency, caught between destructive behavior and sometimes beneficial effects on Western military cohesion, continues to divide analysts.

This duality captures the complexity of the role Donald Trump currently plays in the Western security architecture: a broadly engaged military ally on certain files, but a constant source of diplomatic instability on others, a situation NATO partners must learn to manage with caution and clear-eyed judgment.

Implications for Canada and its defense policy

Ottawa under pressure to raise its contribution

Canada, routinely criticized by Washington for its historically insufficient defense investment, is among the countries being asked to take on greater responsibility for the European continent's conventional defense, alongside its NATO partners. This pressure is tied to the new 3.5% of GDP target the Ankara summit is set to formally adopt by 2035.

The Canadian government will need to show, in the months following this summit, real willingness to close its historic gap in military spending, a politically sensitive file that has become increasingly unavoidable given the deteriorating international security environment.

A strategic contribution beyond the numbers

Beyond financial commitments alone, Canada continues to play a strategic role in Western coordination against Russia, notably through its participation in NATO's enhanced forward presence missions in Eastern Europe, a contribution several European allies consider essential despite persistent criticism of the inadequacy of its overall military budget.

This tension between an acknowledged qualitative contribution and quantitatively insufficient spending illustrates the challenge Canada faces heading into this crucial summit, where international pressure for more substantial financial commitments is unlikely to ease.

The hidden economic stakes behind military diplomacy

An economic boom for the Western defense industry

The massive rise in military spending announced in Ankara also represents a considerable economic opportunity for Western defense industries, which are benefiting directly from this unprecedented wave of investment not seen since the end of the Cold War. This dynamic is creating tens of thousands of skilled jobs across Europe, North America, and their industrial partners.

This economic windfall, however, raises legitimate questions about the fair distribution of these contracts among allies, with Turkey explicitly demanding greater recognition of its contribution and less restricted access to Western defense industry trade.

A delicate balance between solidarity and industrial competition

This tension between publicly displayed military solidarity and underlying industrial competition illustrates the real complexity of relations within the Atlantic alliance, where national economic interests continue to influence, sometimes significantly, strategic decisions publicly framed as purely security-driven.

Leaders gathered in Ankara will need to carefully navigate these diverging industrial interests while maintaining the strategic unity needed to face common security challenges posed by Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea.

What this summit reveals about the future of the Western alliance

A NATO forced to reinvent itself under pressure

The Ankara summit illustrates, more than any recent event, NATO's need to profoundly reinvent itself amid a radically transformed geopolitical environment, one in which American engagement can no longer be taken for granted, and where European allies must shoulder a far greater share of their own collective security.

This transformation, though imposed painfully and uncertainly by Donald Trump's unpredictability, could paradoxically strengthen the Atlantic alliance's long-term resilience, making it less dependent on a single dominant actor and more balanced among its members.

A decisive test of Western credibility against its rivals

How this summit unfolds, and whether its concrete commitments translate into real action in the months that follow, will send a decisive signal to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Kim Jong Un, and Iranian leaders about the true strength — or persistent fragility — of Western unity in the face of their respective revisionist ambitions.

The stakes go far beyond the budgetary or diplomatic questions discussed in Ankara: fundamentally, it is about determining whether the West can still, in 2026, project credible strategic unity in an increasingly multipolar world hostile to the liberal international order it built after the Second World War.

The lessons of the previous Hague summit for Ankara

A crisis-management model worth repeating

Last year's Hague summit managed, despite comparable tensions, to produce a broadly positive outcome for NATO's cohesion, largely thanks to Donald Trump's reaffirmation of American commitment to the alliance and its mutual defense pact. European officials explicitly hope to replicate that scenario in Ankara, though they acknowledge no guarantee can be given given the constantly shifting nature of the American president's stance.

This effort to lean on a successful diplomatic precedent illustrates the methodical caution with which Western diplomats now approach every encounter involving Donald Trump, carefully laying the groundwork beforehand to minimize the risk of a public misstep that could further weaken the Atlantic alliance's image.

Risks that remain despite the preparation

Despite this careful preparation, several diplomats acknowledge that Donald Trump's unpredictable nature makes any forecasting risky, given the American president has repeatedly shown his capacity to completely upend an international summit with a spontaneous remark or an improvised appearance before the cameras.

This persistent uncertainty forces European allies to prepare several communication scenarios simultaneously, ranging from complete diplomatic success to crisis management in the event of a public rupture, a situation that speaks to the unprecedented level of diplomatic stress the Western alliance must now contend with.

Conclusion: Western unity put to the test in Ankara

A summit that will not fix everything, but must reassure

The NATO summit in Ankara will likely not, on its own, resolve every tension that has built up between Donald Trump and his European allies over the past several months. Disputes over Iran, Greenland, and the reliability of Article 5 will not simply vanish because leaders shared a cordial dinner hosted by Recep Tayyip Erdogan. But this summit nonetheless represents a crucial opportunity to demonstrate, even if only on the surface, that the Western alliance remains functional in the face of security challenges of exceptional gravity.

The West must choose unity, whatever the cost

Faced with converging threats from Russia in Ukraine, China in the Asia-Pacific, Iran in the Middle East, and North Korea in the North Pacific, the West simply cannot afford a lasting rift between its most powerful members. The Ankara summit must be seen as a starting point for rebuilding eroded mutual trust, rather than as a mere communications exercise meant to paper over deeper, potentially irreversible divisions.

By Maxime Marquette, columnist

Columnist's transparency note

This column was written from verified primary and secondary journalistic sources, including detailed reporting on the preparations for and stakes of the NATO summit in Ankara. No personal testimony is invoked in this text, and the columnist did not attend any of the events described. Italicized passages reflect the columnist's personal opinion and analysis, clearly distinguished from the facts reported by the cited sources. Certain developments, notably the precise outcome of burden-sharing negotiations with Turkey, remain uncertain at the time of publication and could evolve once the summit actually takes place.

Sources

Primary sources

Reuters — NATO leaders gather in Ankara aiming to smooth over tensions with Trump, July 3, 2026

Reuters — Turkey's Erdogan says NATO summit must emphasize unity, resilience, June 29, 2026

Secondary sources

Deutsche Welle — NATO summit: European members and Canada pledge long-term Ukraine aid

India Today — NATO summit in Ankara: massive security as tensions run through alliance with Trump, July 1, 2026

NATO — Official overview of the 2026 Ankara summit

The Straits Times — Trump to meet leaders of Ukraine, Syria alongside NATO summit