Archive
Pieces
PORTRAIT: field notes on the Chinese coast guard east of Taiwan
On July 5, 2026, Beijing announced new coast guard patrols off the east coast of Taiwan, according to the New York Times. This move,…
COMMENTARY: Taiwan Strait, the questions few outlets are asking
Since the start of 2026, a quiet number has been circulating in specialized analyses of the Taiwan Strait: an average of five Chinese fighter…
COLUMN: what China's slowing military budget reveals about the balance of power
People have often asked me, these past few weeks, what to really make of the 2026 Chinese defense budget. Set at 1.94 trillion yuan,…
EDITORIAL: China's budget slowdown, what the numbers actually confirm
Beware of numbers that reassure too quickly. The 6.9% increase in China's 2026 defense budget, the weakest since 2021 according to Reuters, has been…
INVESTIGATION: Filipino fishermen against the Chinese coast guard, the context we keep forgetting
A decade. Ten years since an international tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines, and yet, according to Reuters, Filipino fishermen report today that…
REPORT: The chip war escalates between Washington and Beijing in three moves
There was no dramatic announcement, no televised crisis summit. The chip war between Washington and Beijing advances in stages, through legislative texts, through administrative…
DECODING: $282 billion, between rhetoric and reality
A single figure, $282 billion, now serves as shorthand for describing Chinese military ambition in 2026. But this shorthand, as is often the case…
ANALYSIS: Seven nations, one message to Beijing
Seventeen thousand troops, seven nations, one implicit message aimed at Beijing: that is the first takeaway from the Balikatan 2026 exercise, held in the…
NOTE: Xi Jinping changes tactics on Taiwan, what Western observers are taking away
The daily average of Chinese air incursions into the Taiwan Strait has fallen by half compared to 2025, according to the Straits Times of…