# TESTIMONY: Zelensky vs. Lukashenko — One Week to Silence the Death Relays

> On June 19, 2026, Volodymyr Zelensky stood before journalists and spoke simple, direct words that rang like an indirect declaration of war against Alexander Lukashenko: "I think one week is enough for him. If he doesn't do it, we will." One week for Belarus to dismantle the relay stations Russia uses to guide its Shahed drones onto Ukrainian civilians. Seven days for a dictator

- Author: Maxime Marquette
- Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co)
- Section: Profile
- Published: 2026-06-27
- Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/temoignage-zelensky-contre-loukachenko-une-semaine-pour-eteindre-les-relais-de-l

## Introduction: When Minsk Becomes Complicit in the Drones Killing Ukrainian Civilians

### The Ultimatum That Changed Everything

On **June 19, 2026**, **Volodymyr Zelensky** stood before journalists and spoke simple, direct words that rang like an indirect declaration of war against **Alexander Lukashenko**: "I think one week is enough for him. If he doesn't do it, we will." One week for **Belarus** to dismantle the relay stations Russia uses to guide its **Shahed** drones onto Ukrainian civilians. Seven days for a dictator to prove that his protests of neutrality amount to something more than air.

This was not a speech from an international podium. It was an **operational ultimatum**, backed by precise intelligence, maps, and intercept data. **Kyiv** knew exactly where these installations were — on communication towers in the oblasts of **Homel** and **Brest**, along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border. And if **Minsk** did not dismantle them, **Kyiv** was prepared to do it itself.

### Antennas on Five-Story Residential Buildings — The Technical Reality of the Relays

What are called "relay stations" or "retransmitters" is relatively simple equipment, but of formidable effectiveness. A **Shahed** drone traveling hundreds of kilometers must maintain a connection with its Russian operators. The Earth's curvature makes a direct connection impossible beyond a certain range. The antennas installed on Belarusian communication towers — and even, according to **Zelensky**, on the rooftops of ordinary five-story residential buildings — serve as relays to amplify and retransmit that signal.

It was **Serhii Beskrestnov**, an adviser to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, who explained the mechanism precisely: "These nodes are typically a mobile operator tower or another structure of **70-80 meters**, equipped with powerful antennas pointed toward Ukraine." Thanks to them, Shaheds striking **Kyiv**, **Rivne**, or **Volyn** — regions difficult to reach from Russian territory alone — receive real-time course corrections. Without these relays, many strikes on northern and western Ukraine would simply not have been possible.

*I want to pause on what this actually means. Antennas on Belarusian residential buildings are guiding Iranian drones operated by Russian soldiers toward civilian targets in Ukraine. Belarusian families may be living beneath those antennas without knowing that their rooftops are being used to kill their Ukrainian neighbors. It is a desecration. And Lukashenko is directly complicit.*

## How Ukrainian Hackers Uncovered the Network

### Operation InformNapalm: Spying on the Spies

The story of the discovery of the Belarusian relay network is itself remarkable. In **January 2026**, intelligence began filtering out about Russia's use of Belarusian infrastructure to control its drones. It was the international intelligence community **InformNapalm**, in collaboration with the cyber analysis center **Fenix**, that confirmed and documented the network by breaching the accounts of Russian military personnel.

Ukrainian hackers did not take control of the drones — they observed them. For months, round-the-clock clandestine surveillance mapped the network, identified relay positions, and traced flight paths and command systems. This data was fed in real time to Ukrainian defenses, significantly improving the interception rate. By **February 23, 2026**, **Zelensky** was already able to announce that three or four of these stations "no longer existed."

### The March 2026 Escalation: Moscow Plans to Expand the Network

But **Russia** adapts. In **March 2026**, **Zelensky** revealed, following a briefing from **Oleh Ivashchenko**, director of Ukrainian military intelligence, that **Moscow** was planning to install new drone control stations in **Belarus**. Four stations had been identified, with others in preparation. **Russia** was not backing down — it was intensifying its use of Belarusian territory.

This escalation is characteristic of Russia's strategy in drone warfare. **Moscow**'s engineers find solutions to every Ukrainian countermeasure: balloons carrying relays dropped from **Belarus**, Shaheds equipped with SIM cards that connect to **Belarusian**, **Polish**, and **Romanian** mobile networks when Ukraine jams its own frequencies. The drone war is also a signal war, a permanent and evolving electronic battle.

*Russia's adaptability in electronic warfare concerns me. Every time a countermeasure seems to work, Moscow invents a workaround. That is the genius of Soviet-Russian military engineering — not brute force, but tactical resourcefulness. Ukraine must maintain this race of adaptation, with the technological backing of its Western allies.*

## June 19, 2026: The Public Ultimatum

### A Message as Hard as a Declaration of War

The press conference of **June 19, 2026** will be remembered as one of the most direct moments of **Zelensky**'s diplomacy. Standing beside Honduran President **Nasri Asfour**, on an official visit to **Kyiv**, the Ukrainian president delivered the ultimatum without detour. He described the relays installed on Belarusian towers — "Russian repeaters, Belarusian repeaters, what difference does it make to us?" — and articulated the consequence with a clarity that left no room for ambiguity: if **Lukashenko** refuses, **Ukraine** will destroy these installations itself.

This wording was deliberately weighted. It implied that **Ukraine** was prepared to conduct operations on Belarusian territory — a potentially major escalation. But **Zelensky** also took care to leave **Lukashenko** a face-saving exit: "If Belarus truly does not want to be involved in the war, it must remove them." A formulation that allowed the Belarusian dictator to comply without entirely losing face.

### Moscow's Response: Peskov Confirms, Putin Consults

The most revealing response came from **Moscow** — not from **Minsk**. Kremlin spokesman **Dmitry Peskov** confirmed that **Vladimir Putin** would discuss the ultimatum with **Lukashenko**. This statement, seemingly routine, reveals a deep tension within the Russian-Belarusian "alliance": it is **Moscow** that decides, not **Minsk**. **Lukashenko** is not an equal partner — he is a vassal who depends on Russian protection since his crackdown on the pro-democracy movement of **2020**.

**Belarus** is in an uncomfortable position. Its air force has been dismantled in favor of Russian systems deployed on its territory. Its real sovereignty is largely nominal. **Lukashenko** needs **Putin** to stay in power — but he did not necessarily want his territory serving as a direct platform for killing Ukrainian civilians, thereby increasing the risk of Ukrainian reprisals against his own infrastructure.

*Lukashenko is a man trapped by his own choices. He sold Belarus's sovereignty to Putin after 2020 in order to remain in power. Now Putin is installing antennas on Minsk rooftops to kill Ukrainians, and Lukashenko cannot say a word. It is the tragedy of an autocrat who chose repression over his own people. He deserves little sympathy — but the Belarusian people deserve acknowledgment that this situation was imposed on them.*

## Three Days Later: The Relays Go Silent

### June 22, 2026: The Towers Fall Silent

The ultimatum was set to expire on **June 26, 2026**. But by **June 22** — just **three days** after the ultimatum — Ukrainian intelligence confirmed that the relay stations were no longer functioning. General **Oleksandr Syrskyi**, commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces, informed **Zelensky** of this critical development. The president chose careful wording in his public statement: "I honestly don't know whether they have been dismantled or simply switched off. But the fact is that the relays are not working today."

This distinction — switched off versus dismantled — is crucial. Equipment that is simply switched off can be reactivated in seconds. Physically dismantled equipment implies a real effort and a lasting change in capabilities. **Zelensky** refused to claim premature victory. He confirmed that he was monitoring the situation closely, receiving daily reports, and that **Ukraine** was "working" to verify the situation.

### Ground Confirmation: Drone Incursions Drop

On the ground, converging signals confirmed the effect of the relay shutdown. The Ukrainian Border Guard Service, through its spokesman **Andriy Demchenko**, reported a "certain reduction" in Shahed drone incursions in the **Chernihiv** region. Large coordinated Shahed flights along the Belarus-Ukraine border ceased. The independent Belarusian media outlet **Flagstok** reported that no drone activity had been observed for three consecutive days along that border.

The specialized outlet **Euromaidan Press** confirmed that the relay network exposed and partially dismantled in **February 2026** had been rebuilt by **Russia** — and that the new June **2026** shutdown represented a real operational victory, even if a temporary one. The northern Shahed route is, for now, compromised. This does not mean the end of attacks — **Russia** has other routes and other guidance mechanisms — but it is a tangible limitation of its strike capabilities.

*Those three days are the perfect illustration of what well-calculated coercive diplomacy can achieve. Zelensky did not negotiate politely — he set a deadline, spelled out the consequences, and reality moved. That is not brutality — it is clarity. In a world where authoritarian actors only understand force, the force of credibility is indispensable.*

## The Silent Victims: What the Belarusian Relays Have Cost in Lives

### Zhytomyr, Rivne, Volyn: The Sacrificed Regions

The regions of **Zhytomyr**, **Rivne**, and **Volyn** — in northwestern Ukraine, far from the Donbas front lines — paid a particularly heavy price for the drones guided via Belarusian relays. These are predominantly agricultural and forested regions, midsize cities that had nothing "military" about them at first glance. But their electrical grids, railways, fuel depots, and industrial infrastructure made them targets for Russia's strategy of systematically destroying Ukraine's civilian economy.

Dozens of documented strikes on these regions in **2025** and early **2026** correspond to flight routes passing through **Belarus**. The destruction of electrical substations in these areas left hundreds of thousands of people without heating and electricity during the winter months — a slow and deliberate form of torture. This is not collusion — it is documented complicity.

### The Human Cost of Minsk's Complicity

Zelensky said it plainly in his ultimatum: "Civilians are dying every day because of this. Children are being injured." This formulation is not rhetorical — it is factual and documented. Reports from the **UN** and **UNICEF** on Ukrainian civilian casualties from drone strikes confirm dozens of deaths and hundreds of civilian injuries in these regions since the deployment of the Belarusian relays.

The massive strike of **June 15, 2026** on **Kyiv** — approximately **70 missiles** and more than **600 drones**, according to Ukrainian ambassador to the UN **Andriy Melnik** — is the most recent and most dramatic example of this mass violence. The attack damaged the **Dormition Cathedral** at the Kyiv-Pechersk Lavra (**UNESCO** site), the **Dovzhenko** film studio, and other cultural landmarks. Every drone that strikes a cathedral carries the signature not only of **Putin**, but of everyone who facilitated its guidance.

*I was not there. I have no desire to pretend I know the fear of a nighttime air raid alert in Kyiv. But the testimonies I have read, the images I have seen — the blackened cathedral, the blown-out facades, the streets covered in shattered glass — remind me that behind every geopolitical analysis, there are people simply trying to live. That reality must never disappear behind the jargon of strategy.*

## The Belarusian Excuse: "We Have No Control"

### The Rhetoric of Powerlessness as a Shield

**Lukashenko** and his representatives have regularly attempted to plead ignorance or powerlessness regarding Russia's use of Belarusian territory. After the **2022** invasion, when Russian missiles were fired from **Belarus**, **Lukashenko** told **Zelensky** that rockets "had flown there and they had not been controlling them for a long time." **Zelensky** cited this exchange in his June **2026** ultimatum, making clear that such an excuse was no longer credible.

Indeed, if the relays are installed on communication towers managed by Belarusian operators on sovereign Belarusian territory, claiming to have no control is either a deliberate lie or an admission of a total loss of sovereignty so profound that it constitutes in itself a grave problem. Neither position releases **Minsk** from its responsibility.

### Lukashenko Stripped of His Air Defenses

A particularly revealing element of the Belarusian situation is the **depletion of its air defense systems** in favor of **Russia**. Reports indicate that Belarusian air defense equipment has been redistributed to Russian forces in Ukraine. **Lukashenko** would therefore be in the paradoxical position of having allowed **Russia** to install offensive equipment on his territory while having surrendered part of his own defensive equipment. His dependence on **Moscow** is now total and existential.

This situation may explain the speed with which the relays went silent after **Zelensky**'s ultimatum. Not because **Lukashenko** suddenly developed a moral conscience — but because he calculated that the risk of Ukrainian strikes on his infrastructure, without an air defense umbrella, was real and immediate. The credible threat was enough.

*Lukashenko made a choice in 2020: crush his people rather than let democracy take hold. Since then, he has been paying the price of total dependence on Putin. Today his territory is a platform for killing Ukrainians, his air defenses have shipped off to Ukraine, and Zelensky threatens him directly. The servitude he chose for his people, he now endures himself. There is no satisfaction in this irony.*

## The International Response: Europe Validates Ukraine's Position

### Brussels Backs the Right to Self-Defense

The **European Union** gave its explicit support to Ukraine's position following the ultimatum. In a statement reported by Ukrainian media, Brussels underscored that "**Ukraine has the right to self-defense**" and that the Belarusian regime "is assisting Russia in its war." This formal EU backing is significant: it legitimizes the possibility of Ukrainian operations against targets on Belarusian soil, provided those targets directly serve to carry out attacks on Ukraine.

This EU position reflects a gradual evolution in Western stances since **2022**. Initially highly cautious about any action that might spill over onto third-party territory, Ukraine's allies have progressively accepted the legal framework under which launch or guidance platforms in third countries engage their responsibility and can legitimately be neutralized under the right of self-defense.

### Lessons for NATO: Belarus Is Not a Protected Space

The Belarusian episode has significant implications for **NATO** doctrine. Reports have mentioned that drones guided via Belarusian towers have at times violated the airspace of **NATO member states** — **Poland**, **Romania** — using their mobile networks as signal relays. If confirmed, this would mean that civilian infrastructure belonging to NATO members was involuntarily used for Russian military operations against Ukraine.

This dimension raises complex but urgent doctrinal questions: what constitutes an "attack" on a NATO member under **Article 5**? Does the unconsented use of an ally's civilian infrastructure to conduct military operations against a third country fall within that definition? These questions remain unresolved — and their clarification is a strategic priority the Alliance must address.

*The question of NATO doctrine in the face of drone warfare is fundamental. The rules of engagement were written for a world of missiles and tanks — not for a world of drones bouncing off civilian phone networks. The Alliance must evolve, and quickly. This is not alarmism: it is rational preparation.*

## The Technical Profile of the Shaheds: Understanding the Weapon That Strikes

### An Iranian Drone in Service of the Russian War

The **Shahed-136** — renamed **Geran-2** by the Russians to deny its Iranian origin — is a remarkable weapon in its effective simplicity. It is a kamikaze drone of straightforward design, piston-engine driven, with an explosive payload of approximately **40 kilograms**. It flies slowly (around **185 km/h**), at low altitude, which makes it difficult to detect by radar but relatively vulnerable to modern air defense systems. Its strength lies in numbers: launched by the dozens or even hundreds simultaneously, they saturate defenses.

**Iran** has supplied thousands of these drones to **Russia**, and **Russia** now manufactures them locally under license or by copying. By **2026**, estimates suggest **Russia** has deployed more than **10,000** Shahed/Geran drones against Ukraine. Every Belarusian relay that improves their guidance therefore represents thousands of more precise, more lethal, more infrastructure-destroying strikes.

### The Countermeasures War: Ukrainian Defenses Adapt

**Ukraine** has developed increasingly effective countermeasures against Shaheds. Western air defense systems — **NASAMS**, **Patriot**, **Iris-T** — can intercept some of these drones, but they cost far too much relative to the cost of a Shahed to be deployed systematically. **Ukraine** has therefore developed in parallel electronic jamming systems, anti-drone drones, and mobile precision-fire teams that shoot down Shaheds with Kalashnikovs or shotguns.

The compromising of Belarusian relays fits within this logic of asymmetric countermeasures. By neutralizing the guidance network rather than intercepting each drone individually, Ukraine adopts a systemic approach that multiplies the effect of its actions. One neutralized relay can degrade dozens of potential strikes — a cost-effectiveness ratio infinitely more favorable than individual interceptions.

*Ukrainian ingenuity in drone warfare is genuinely impressive. A country of 40 million people, under partial embargo, confronting the military-industrial machine of a nuclear empire, inventing operational solutions day by day. This is not romantic bravery — it is collective intelligence under maximum pressure. The West should take notes.*

## Ukraine's Military Pressure in June 2026: A Context of Strength

### Deep Strikes That Are Changing the Equation

The Belarusian ultimatum did not occur in a vacuum. It came during a period of intense Ukrainian military pressure on Russian rear areas. In the night of **June 21-22, 2026**, air-launched cruise missiles struck several strategic targets deep in Russian territory. Among the targets: **the "Dubna" space communications center** near Moscow — a column of smoke was observed, with damage assessment ongoing — a **critical plant in Voronezh** producing electronic components for **Iskander**, **Kh-101**, and **Pantsir-S1** systems, command posts in the **Belgorod** and **Donetsk** regions, and port infrastructure at **Kavkaz**.

These deep strikes illustrate Ukraine's new operational doctrine: no longer merely defending the front, but reaching Russia's productive and logistical capabilities. Destroying a plant manufacturing electronic components in **Voronezh** is not symbolic — it is severing the supply of parts that allow **Russia** to sustain its production pace of missiles and air defense systems.

### Melnik at the UN: Ukraine's Patience Has Limits

On **June 22, 2026**, Ukrainian ambassador to the UN **Andriy Melnik** warned the **Security Council** that Kyiv's patience was "not unlimited." If the Council continues to choose a "wait-and-see attitude," **Ukraine** might reconsider its current proposals, including its offer of a ceasefire along the current line of contact — a major concession that already represents an abandonment of the official position of liberating all occupied territory. He also noted that **Russia** is suffering more than **30,000 casualties per month** and will "never hold onto the occupied Ukrainian territories."

These statements must be read in context: they are simultaneously a genuine warning and a tool of diplomatic pressure. **Ukraine** is operating on multiple fronts — growing military pressure on Russian rear areas, the ultimatum to **Belarus**, warning signals at the United Nations. It is a coordinated maximum-pressure strategy designed to force **Russia** to the negotiating table on acceptable terms.

*I want to be clear on this point: Ukraine is not seeking a peace that amounts to a disguised defeat. When Zelensky speaks of "reconsidering his proposals," he means he might harden his demands — not soften them. This signaling is important and too often misread by Western commentators who desperately want to see a Ukraine ready for massive territorial concessions. That is not what is happening.*

## Zelensky Versus Lukashenko: A Lesson in Coercive Diplomacy

### What This Episode Reveals About Zelensky's Diplomatic Style

The Belarusian relay episode reveals a great deal about **Zelensky**'s diplomatic style. He is not a president who negotiates politely in carpeted corridors. He is a president who names problems publicly, sets clear terms, and creates political pressure that makes inaction costly for all parties involved. The public ultimatum was itself a tool: by exposing Belarusian complicity before the international community, it made any defense of **Lukashenko** politically more difficult for **Moscow**.

He also demonstrated his ability to manage crisis exits. The formulation "if Belarus truly does not want to be involved in the war" left **Lukashenko** the option to present his withdrawal as a sovereign decision rather than a capitulation. That is skilled politics — hard in substance, but deft enough in form to allow the adversary to retreat without total rupture.

### The Limits of Victory: Switched Off Is Not Dismantled

**Zelensky**'s caution about the distinction between "switched off" and "dismantled" is analytically honest and strategically important. Equipment that is simply deactivated can be reactivated within hours if the pressure eases. **Russia** has shown its capacity to rebuild similar networks after the **February 2026** operations. The victory of **June 22** is real — but it is not definitive. **Ukraine** will need to maintain constant surveillance and a sustained posture of pressure to ensure this guidance route remains compromised.

And even if the Belarusian relays remain permanently offline, **Russia** will adapt. Balloon-carried relays, Shaheds equipped with SIM cards, flying relay drones — alternative solutions in development or already partially deployed. The drone and signal war is a permanent race with no clearly defined finish line.

*What Zelensky achieved here is a tactical victory coupled with a powerful strategic signal: Ukraine can and will act against platforms being used to kill it, including beyond its own borders. This doctrine of active defense is risky — it can lead to escalation — but it is also the only realistic response in a war where the enemy has no compunction about using any territory as a springboard.*

## The Belarusian Question in the Long Term: What Exit Is Possible?

### Belarus After Lukashenko: An Existential Question for Ukraine

Beyond the immediate question of the relays, the Belarusian situation raises a crucial long-term question for **Ukraine** and for **Europe**. As long as **Lukashenko** is in power and dependent on **Moscow**, Belarusian territory will remain a permanent threat to Ukraine's northern flank. The Belarus-Ukraine border stretches **1,000 kilometers** — a frontier that Ukraine cannot militarily defend with its current resources while simultaneously holding a **1,100-kilometer** eastern front.

The real solution to the Belarusian problem is political: a regime change in **Minsk**, or at minimum a profound modification of Belarusian foreign policy that would allow the country's neutralization. In **2020**, a majority of Belarusians voted against **Lukashenko** — a democratic movement that was violently suppressed with **Moscow**'s support. **Ukraine** and its allies should invest more heavily in supporting Belarusian civil society and the government-in-exile of **Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya**.

### Post-War Scenarios: What Kind of Belarus?

A lasting peace in **Ukraine** cannot coexist with a **Belarus** that remains a military province of **Russia**. Any future settlement will need to address the question of Belarusian status — guaranteed neutrality, departure of Russian forces, potentially a return toward democracy. This is an ambitious agenda that assumes **Russia** will be sufficiently weakened to release its grip on **Minsk**.

In the immediate term, the relay episode has at least demonstrated one thing: Ukraine's credible threats can modify Belarusian behavior, even through the Russian intermediary. That is useful information for the diplomats who will work on the Belarusian file in the months and years ahead.

*I dare to hope that Belarus will one day reclaim its genuine sovereignty. The Belarusian people deserve better than Lukashenko and better than Putin's guardianship. But hope without strategy is wishful thinking. Ukraine's allies need a plan for Belarus — not just symbolic sanctions against Lukashenko.*

## The Impact on Russia's Global Drone Strategy

### Russia's Structural Dependence on External Guidance

The Belarusian relay episode exposes a **structural vulnerability** in Russia's drone strategy: dependence on external guidance infrastructure that can be targeted, compromised, or neutralized. Unlike ballistic missiles that require no continuous connection with their operator, terminal-guided drones like the **Shaheds** depend on a communications chain with identifiable and attackable links.

This vulnerability is a strategic opportunity for Ukraine and its allies. Systematically identifying, mapping, and neutralizing Russian guidance infrastructure — whether in **Belarus**, in occupied territories, or in **Russia** itself — can significantly degrade the effectiveness of Russian strikes without requiring the interception of each drone individually. It is a form of electronic and infrastructure warfare that targets the real weaknesses of the Russian weapons system.

### Toward an Active Defense Doctrine for Guidance Infrastructure

Ukraine's **2026** experience with Belarusian relays could become a **case study** for Western military doctrine. It illustrates the importance of understanding the complete command and control chain of a weapons system — not just the terminal weapon — and identifying the vulnerable nodes in that chain. It also illustrates the political dilemmas associated with operations on third-party territory and how to manage them through public, transparent coercive diplomacy.

These lessons are relevant not only for **Ukraine** but for any country that might find itself in a similar situation — defending critical infrastructure networks against actors who use third-party territories to amplify their offensive capabilities.

*I am not a military professional, and I do not claim to master every operational aspect of this subject. But the general lesson seems clear: modern warfare demands a systemic understanding of weapons chains, not just of the weapons themselves. And that understanding must translate into operational doctrine before the crisis hits — not during it.*

## What Lukashenko Chose Not to See

### Complicity by Omission Is Full Complicity

**Lukashenko** has had numerous opportunities to refuse the militarization of his territory by **Russia**. After **2022**, when Russian missiles transited through **Belarus**, he chose inaction. When the first Shahed relays appeared on his territory in late **2025**, he chose to look away. Each time a drone guided via those relays killed a Ukrainian civilian, **Lukashenko** bore a share of the responsibility.

This complicity does not reduce to political weakness before **Putin** — even if that weakness is real. It also reflects a deliberate choice: to remain in power by becoming the rear platform of **Putin**'s war against **Ukraine**, in the hope that the consequences would stay on the Ukrainian side of the border. **Zelensky**'s ultimatum reminded **Lukashenko** that this hope was illusory.

### Accountability for War Crimes

The question of **Belarus**'s international legal responsibility for war crimes committed with the support of Belarusian infrastructure remains open. Legal specialists in international humanitarian law have begun documenting cases where strikes guided via Belarusian relays targeted civilian infrastructure or non-combatant populations. If this documentation is sufficiently robust, it could one day serve as the basis for proceedings before international jurisdictions.

This is not an imminent prospect — international procedures are slow and complex. But history shows that accomplices to war crimes do not enjoy permanent immunity. The post-war Nuremberg proceedings, the tribunals for the former **Yugoslavia**, the **ICC** — the mechanisms exist. And the digital archives of **2026** are extensive.

*I believe in international justice — while knowing it is slow, imperfect, and politically constrained. But I also believe that the act of documenting, of naming, of preserving evidence has value in itself, independent of judicial proceedings. The memory of crimes is a form of resistance. And the Belarusian relays that guided drones toward Ukrainian residential buildings deserve to be inscribed in that memory.*

## Belarus After the Ultimatum: Reconfiguration or Mere Pause?

### A Tactical Withdrawal or a Lasting Capitulation?

The central question analysts have been asking since **June 22, 2026** is simple: is the neutralization of the Belarusian relays permanent or merely temporary? The history of modern warfare teaches that actors under pressure do not permanently give up — they reorganize. If **Lukashenko** chose to cut these relays, it is because the immediate cost exceeded the benefit. But as soon as Ukrainian pressure eases, or as soon as **Moscow** offers sufficient compensation, the temptation to restart will exist.

Electronic warfare analysts estimate that **Russia** may seek to relocate its guidance relays to other areas — possibly toward naval platforms in the **Black Sea** or toward infrastructure on Russian territory itself. In doing so, it would increase the control distance and reduce effectiveness, but eliminate the Belarusian vulnerability. Adaptation is the hallmark of an adversary that has learned to survive under pressure.

### The Future of Russian-Belarusian Military Cooperation

The **June 2026** episode has at least temporarily strained trust between **Moscow** and **Minsk**. By cutting the relays under Ukrainian pressure, **Lukashenko** sent an ambiguous signal to **Putin**: that of a partner who has limits. This is not without consequences for future military cooperation. **Moscow** will now need to calculate to what extent it can rely on Belarusian territorial infrastructure for its offensive operations against **Ukraine**.

This strain is an opportunity for the **West**: maintain diplomatic pressure on **Minsk**, make **Lukashenko** understand that a gradual — even partial — distancing from **Moscow** opens a door toward an exit from international isolation. This is not a realistic short-term strategy, but in the medium term, **Lukashenko**'s political survival interests and Ukraine's security interests could converge in unexpected ways.

*I recognize the audacity of what I am writing here — speaking of convergence between **Zelensky** and **Lukashenko** looks like political naivety. But wars create improbable realignments. **Lukashenko** knows that if **Putin** loses, his own survival becomes very uncertain. That calculus could, one day, push him to choose differently. I do not believe it yet. But I refuse to rule out that scenario.*

## Conclusion: An Operational Victory, a Strategic Warning

### The Balance Sheet of the Belarusian Ultimatum

The Belarusian relay episode and **Zelensky**'s ultimatum of **June 19, 2026** conclude, as of **June 26**, with an immediate positive result: the stations are silent, drone incursions along the northern route are declining. It is a real operational victory, even if its durability remains uncertain. **Kyiv** has demonstrated that credible coercive diplomacy — backed by precise intelligence and a credible offensive military posture — can produce rapid results even against actors operating under Russian influence.

But the war continues. **Russia** adapts. **Lukashenko** remains in power. Iranian drones continue to be produced and delivered. And every night, somewhere in **Ukraine**, families sleep in their clothes, ready to run to shelters at the first siren. The real victory is not yet here.

### What This Episode Says About Ukraine

Above all, what this episode says is that **Zelensky**'s **Ukraine** is no longer waiting. It no longer begs its allies to act. It acts, it communicates, it presses. And it wins concrete victories, through intelligence, through tactical creativity, through a keen understanding of the available pressure levers. This is a Ukraine that has learned the hard way of war over four years — and has emerged, paradoxically, stronger, more determined, more capable. That is the real testimony I hear in **Zelensky**'s statements this June **2026**.

*The testimony I want to carry from this sequence is that of a nation transformed under the bombs — not broken, but tempered. **Ukraine** in **2026** is not the same country as in **2022**. It is more clear-eyed, more strategic, more resilient. And this transformation may be Putin's greatest strategic failure: he wanted to crush a people and instead forged an indomitable nation.*

**By Maxime Marquette, columnist**

## Columnist's transparency note

### Editorial stance

I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies.

I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events.

### Method and sources

This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here.

**Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies.

**Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations.

When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**.

### Nature of the analysis

The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted.

My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors.

This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text.

## Sources

### Primary sources

- [Euromaidan Press — Kyiv gave Belarus's ruler a week to pull Russia's drone relays. They went silent in three days, Zelensky says — June 24, 2026](https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/06/24/kyiv-gave-belarus-ruler-week-to-pull-russias-drone-relays-they-went-silent-in-three-days-zelenskyy-says/)

- [Militarnyi — Zelensky: If Belarus doesn't want to be involved in the war, it must remove relay stations for Russian drones — June 20, 2026](https://militarnyi.com/en/news/zelensky-belarus-must-remove-relay-stations/)

- [RBC-Ukraine — Inside Zelensky's ultimatum to Lukashenko — June 19, 2026](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/inside-zelenskyy-s-ultimatum-to-lukashenko-1781893708.html)

- [UNN — Relay stations on the territory of Belarus have ceased operations since June 22 — Zelensky — June 24, 2026](https://unn.ua/en/news/relay-stations-on-the-territory-of-belarus-have-ceased-operations-since-june-22-zelenskyy)

### Secondary sources

- [EU Alive — Ukraine intensifies military pressure, warns of revising peace proposals as Russia faces deep strikes — June 23, 2026](https://eualive.net/ukraine-intensifies-military-pressure-warns-of-revising-peace-proposals-as-russia-faces-deep-strikes/)

- [RBC-Ukraine — Shahed drone flights drop along Belarus border — June 24, 2026](https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/comment/shahed-drone-flights-drop-along-belarus-border-1782319571.html)

- [Belsat — What are the relay systems Zelensky has been talking about for six months, and why did he issue an ultimatum to Lukashenka over them — June 22, 2026](https://en.belsat.eu/93952142/what-are-the-relay-systems-zelenskyy-has-been-talking-about-for-six-months-and-why-did-he-issue-an-ultimatum-to-lukashenka-over-them)

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Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/temoignage-zelensky-contre-loukachenko-une-semaine-pour-eteindre-les-relais-de-l