# Taiwan Rehearses Total War With Earthquake, Blockade, and Hackers > Some military exercises are reassuring, and others send a chill down your spine, and the one Taiwan just ran in Nantou clearly - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Note - Published: 2026-07-06 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/taiwan-repete-la-guerre-totale-avec-seisme-blocus-et-pirates ## Key takeaways - The exercise, reported by Reuters on July 3, 2026, opened with a seven-hour simulation and fits President Lai Ching-te's push to strengthen resilience against Chinese military pressure. - Hospital operations were moved underground, and professional hackers stress-tested government networks. - The scenario included the earthquake killing 12 people, a Chinese drone strike on a response center, and hacked TV broadcasts with propaganda. - Nantou, Taiwan's only landlocked county, was designated a rear zone and fallback base. - Minister Chi Lien-cheng and Lin Fei-fan of the National Security Council framed the exercise as deterrence through preparedness. ## Introduction: a drill that looks too much like a prophecy ### A nightmare scenario designed to stop surprising anyone Some military exercises are reassuring, and others send a chill down your spine, and the one **Taiwan** just ran in **Nantou** clearly belongs in the second category. According to an **exclusive Reuters investigation** published on **July 3, 2026**, more than **370 government and military officials** were confronted with a cascading scenario combining a **Chinese naval blockade**, a **magnitude 6.8 earthquake**, **sabotage**, a **bank run**, and, at the end of the **chain**, a **full-scale invasion**. This isn't a reassuring PR exercise meant to calm a worried **population**. It's an exercise in **institutional survival**, designed to test whether Taiwan's state apparatus can keep functioning when everything collapses at once, a hypothesis that is no longer theoretical given how intensely **Chinese** military pressure around the island keeps ramping up. ### Why this level of realism, and why now The exercise, which ran over **two days** and opened with a **seven-hour simulation drill**, fits into President **Lai Ching-te's** push to strengthen the island's resilience against constantly intensifying **Chinese** military pressure. This is no scheduling coincidence: the same week, **Taiwan** reported that **China** had carried out a new "joint combat readiness patrol" around the island, involving warships and at least **22 military aircraft**, including nuclear-**capable** **H-6** bombers. Taiwanese authorities have explicitly said they drew direct lessons from the wars in **Ukraine** and the **Middle East**, two theaters that brutally reminded the world that no critical **infrastructure** is safe and that an entire society, not just its military, must be prepared. *What I see in this exercise is a rare clarity for a besieged democracy: instead of comforting itself with optimistic editorials, Taiwan rehearses the worst so it never has to discover it live. That is exactly the posture the West should admire and support without reservation.* ## An underground hospital and hackers paid to attack their own country ### Moving emergency medicine underground Among the most striking details reported by Reuters is authorities' **decision** to make the tests more realistic by moving hospital operations underground, a choice that shows just how much the chosen scenario treats strikes on civilian **infrastructure**, not just military targets, as a certainty in the event of open conflict with **China**. On July 2, police demonstrated an **ADS MK6** anti-drone system outside a **hospital** in **Nantou**, a symbolic gesture reflecting an operational reality: protecting healthcare **capacity** is now a **strategic** priority on par with defending a military base. ### Professional hackers unleashed against their own government Another striking element: **professional hackers** attacked and stress-tested government networks and websites, part of an internal **offensive cybersecurity** approach rarely documented with this degree of **transparency** by a democratic **government** in a position of **vulnerability**. An **American** tactical mapping and communication system, offering real-time location of enemy targets, was also presented to **officials**, alongside two government platforms using interactive maps and icons to visualize an unfolding **crisis**, including tracking the movement of ambulances and other critical resources. *Deliberately attacking your own networks to find the flaws before the enemy does is a discipline too many Western democracies still neglect. Taiwan is giving us a lesson in preparedness that we'd do well to copy rather than admire from a distance.* ## A fictional earthquake, twelve fictional deaths, and a very real lesson ### When nature becomes a geopolitical weapon The scenario included a **magnitude 6.8 earthquake** that killed **12 people**, an event **Beijing** would supposedly exploit to sow chaos, a hypothesis underscoring a very real **strategic** concern: a determined adversary could exploit a natural disaster to weaken a country's response **capacity** before even launching direct military action. A **Chinese** drone strike on the response center also left the fate of **75 officials** uncertain in the scenario, forcing authorities to activate a backup operations center, a test of government continuity that goes well beyond ordinary **crisis** management. ### Disinformation, the scenario's silent weapon The scenario also involved hacking local TV broadcasts, which were replaced with propaganda from **Beijing**, along with disinformation leaflets appearing in the streets. Officials had to hold fake press conferences and learn to identify disinformation in real time, an exercise that recognizes the information battle matters as much as the one fought with tanks and missiles. A **75-year-old** neighborhood chief, **Lee I-yuan**, who led a community response team, summed up the **threat** with disarming simplicity: if the adversary attacks, it will certainly use artificial intelligence to spread false information. *That line from a 75-year-old neighborhood chief says more than many expert reports on hybrid warfare: the Taiwanese population has understood, at every level, that the next war will also be won in people's minds. The West should take note before it's too late.* ## Nantou, the countryside turned strategic rear base ### A landlocked county at the heart of the national plan **Nantou**, Taiwan's only landlocked county, was designated a "rear zone," a refuge for people fleeing other counties and a fallback base for operations while frontline troops fought **Chinese** forces, according to explanations Reuters gathered from the exercise's organizers. This geographic choice is anything but accidental: by relying on a **territory** less directly exposed to coastal strikes, Taiwanese planners are trying to ensure that national coordination **capacity** survives even if coastal areas fall under blockade or bombardment, a territorial resilience logic that clearly sets civil **defense** apart from mere reassuring propaganda. ### Concrete questions that go beyond military theory Local officials faced a flood of very concrete operational questions: how many men of mobilization age the local **government** could gather overnight, and how many boxes of infant formula the county had in stock. Dozens of local government units across the country took part via live broadcast. These details, almost trivial on the surface, reveal the real scale of preparation required: a resilient society isn't just about tanks and missiles, it also has to know how to feed its children and mobilize its citizens within hours, a logistical challenge most Western democracies haven't seriously had to consider in decades. *Asking about infant formula in the middle of a total-war exercise might sound trivial, but it's exactly that attention to detail that separates serious preparation from a public-relations stunt. Taiwan isn't playing at war, it's genuinely preparing for one.* ## The voices behind this deterrence-through-resilience strategy ### A minister who owns up to how close the threat is **Chi Lien-cheng**, the minister without portfolio overseeing the two-day exercise, summed up the geography of the **threat** bluntly: "Our adversary is right at our doorstep, on the other side of the Taiwan Strait. It's very close." He added that if a country doesn't defend its own **territory**, no one else will do it for them, noting that the **population** is beginning to grasp that reality. This candor stands in sharp contrast to the reassuring tone many **Western** governments strike about their own **vulnerabilities**, whether military, energy-related, or digital, a contrast worth pointing out without indulgence. ### Deterrence through preparedness rather than the military alone **Lin Fei-fan**, deputy secretary-general of Taiwan's National **Security** Council, who oversees the resilience-building program, was even more direct about the **strategic** **goal** being pursued: the message to the adversary is clear, once it knows Taiwanese society is prepared, it will have to think very hard before launching such a costly war against **Taiwan**, a war that might not even succeed. **Beijing**, through Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson **Zhu Fenglian**, accused President **Lai Ching-te** of being a "destroyer of peace" across the strait and a **crisis** instigator, a reaction that confirms, if confirmation were needed, that these exercises genuinely rattle **Beijing**. *When an adversary protests this loudly against a defensive exercise, it's usually a sign it's hitting home. Deterrence through resilience, rather than through weapons stockpiling alone, is a strategy the West should study closely.* ## What this exercise reveals about the nature of the Chinese threat ### Military pressure that never lets up **China** has never renounced the use of force to bring **Taiwan** back under its control, an official position **Beijing** has maintained unambiguously for decades. The Taiwanese **government**, for its part, insists that only the island's **population** can decide its future, a fundamental divergence that makes any lasting de-escalation extremely difficult to envision under current conditions. The growing frequency of **Chinese** military patrols, combined with the methodical preparation of scenarios blending natural disaster, cyberattack, and invasion, traces a troubling trajectory that Western **capitals** can no longer afford to ignore or downplay for diplomatic comfort. ### A universal lesson for exposed democracies What **Taiwan** demonstrates is that a society defends itself not just with tanks and aircraft carriers, but with a collective **capacity** to absorb shock, keep functioning, and refuse the panic an adversary is counting on. This integrated approach, both civilian and military, is a model other democracies exposed to hybrid threats, including in Eastern **Europe**, would do well to study closely. The comparison with **Ukraine** is never far from Taiwanese **officials'** remarks, and for good reason: both countries share the same experience of an authoritarian neighbor refusing to recognize their right to self-determination, a reality that structurally brings their national resilience strategies closer together. *Taiwan and Ukraine aren't isolated cases, they're the two laboratories where the West's real-time capacity to defend its values against authoritarian powers is being tested. Ignoring that continuity would be a major strategic mistake.* ## The limits and uncertainties this story cannot erase ### An exercise is not a guarantee of success It would be naive to believe that a resilience exercise, however rigorous, guarantees an effective response in a real **crisis**. **Experts** themselves acknowledge that you cannot truly subject a **population** to an actual war to prepare it, and that scenarios, however realistic, remain approximations of a chaos that will always exceed even the most careful projections. Whether **Taiwan** actually has the human and material resources to withstand such an extreme scenario remains an open question, and no exercise, however sophisticated, can definitively resolve that fundamental uncertainty. ### The time factor, preparation's silent enemy Analysts regularly point to **2027** as a critical threshold when **China** might have sufficient military **capacity** to consider direct action against **Taiwan**, leaving a narrowing window for preparation for the island and its Western backers. This race against the clock adds extra pressure to every exercise, every **budget** decision, and every diplomatic **alliance** forged in the region. Nothing guarantees that Taiwan's current pace of preparation will be enough to close that time gap, a reality neither **Taipei** nor its **Western** partners can afford to underestimate in the months ahead. *I refuse to fall into either the trap of fatalism or that of overconfidence: this exercise is impressive, but it replaces neither greater Western support nor constant vigilance against a deadline that draws closer every month.* ## What Western allies should take away from this exercise ### A lesson in civilian preparedness too often neglected in the West Few Western democracies have pushed their own civilian resilience exercises as far as **Taiwan** just did, a fact that should worry **European** governments facing comparable hybrid threats, whether sabotage of **infrastructure**, cyberattacks, or disinformation campaigns orchestrated from **Moscow** or **Beijing**. The Taiwanese experience shows that credible preparedness requires fine-grained coordination between local and national levels, honest **transparency** about real vulnerabilities, and sustained investment in civilian **capabilities** that rarely make headlines in Western **defense** budgets, which tend to focus more on military hardware than societal resilience. ### A Western partnership that must go beyond statements of principle Western support for **Taiwan** remains, for now, largely declaratory and economic, especially through semiconductors, without a formal **defense** commitment comparable to **NATO's** toward its European members, a **strategic** ambiguity **Beijing** is watching closely and one that could weigh heavily in its risk calculus before any direct action against the island. Strengthening this partnership, through greater intelligence sharing, technological cooperation, and discreet but real logistical support, would send an additional deterrent signal that Western capitals should no longer delay out of fear of provoking **Beijing**, a calculation that already proved its limits against **Russia** before 2022. *I'll say it plainly: Western strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan has outlived its usefulness. The Ukrainian precedent proved that excessive caution never deterred a determined aggressor, it only postpones the inevitable confrontation of principles.* ## Conclusion: resilience as an answer to intimidation ### A message sent well beyond the Taiwan Strait By making public, through the exceptional access granted to Reuters, the details of this national resilience exercise, **Taiwan** is sending a message that reaches far beyond its own borders: that of a democracy refusing to passively endure the military intimidation of an authoritarian neighbor, choosing methodical preparation over comfortable denial. This calculated choice of partial transparency speaks as much to its own population, who need reassurance without deception, as to its Western partners, who need convincing of the situation's urgency, and to **Beijing**, which needs to be deterred without triggering uncontrollable escalation. ### Vigilance that must remain constant on both sides of the Pacific For Western democracies, the Taiwanese exercise should serve as a wake-up call rather than a distant geopolitical curiosity: civilian preparedness against hybrid aggression is no longer a theoretical luxury, it's a necessity that the Ukrainian and now Taiwanese experience makes impossible to keep ignoring. What comes next will depend as much on **Beijing's** strategic choices as on the consistency of Western support for **Taiwan**, support that will need to translate into concrete action rather than mere expressions of diplomatic sympathy. *I close this story convinced of one thing: Taiwan's resilience isn't just a regional matter, it's a full-scale test of the West's willingness to defend its values against authoritarian intimidation, wherever it shows up.* **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - Reuters — Inside Taiwan's nightmare scenario: Chinese blockade, earthquake, sabotage and invasion, July 3, 2026 - Institute for the Study of War — China-Taiwan Update, February 6, 2026 ### Secondary sources - Associated Press — Taiwan hosts military drills as readiness against China grows, 2026 - The Tribune India — Taiwan detects rise in Chinese military incursions around its territory, 2026 - The Japan Times — China coast guard incursion near Japan's EEZ, June 29, 2026 - Foreign Policy — China's military purges under Xi Jinping, January 30, 2026 --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. 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