# Taiwan Absorbs Another Wave of Chinese Military Incursions > On July 1, 2026, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense reported a fresh escalation of Chinese military activity around the island: 13 military - Author: Maxime Marquette - Publisher: MadMax (https://mad-max.co) - Section: Editorial - Published: 2026-07-06 - Canonical URL: https://mad-max.co/en/article/taiwan-encaisse-une-nouvelle-vague-d-incursions-militaires-chinoises ## Introduction: **Beijing** Keeps Testing **Taipei's** Nerves ### What Taiwan's Defense Ministry Detected On **July 1, 2026**, **Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense** reported a fresh **escalation** of Chinese military activity around the island: **13 military aircraft sorties**, **ten ships**, and **three Chinese government vessels** detected around Taiwanese territorial waters in a single day. Notably, **nine of those aircraft** crossed the **median line of the Taiwan Strait**, an informal boundary long respected by both sides and increasingly, systematically violated by **Beijing** in recent years. This sequence is not an isolated incident. According to the **Institute for the Study of War**, the average **monthly incursion count** has literally doubled since Taiwanese President **Lai Ching-te** took office, a trend that reflects increasingly sustained and methodical Chinese **military pressure** on the democratic island. ### Why This Escalation Deserves the West's Full Attention **Taiwan** is not just a regional footnote. It is one of the most dangerous flashpoints on the planet, where a **democracy** of **23 million people** lives under the constant threat of a **China** that openly claims **reunification**, by force if necessary, according to repeated statements from President **Xi Jinping**. Every additional incursion, every crossing of the **median line**, every Chinese naval sortie is never a trivial gesture. It's a calculated message, a way of testing Taiwan's resolve and the solidarity of its Western partners, chief among them the **United States**, engaged in a strategic ambiguity increasingly scrutinized by **Beijing**. *I'll say it plainly: every Western silence in the face of these repeated **incursions** is read by **Beijing** as an invitation to go further. Diplomatic restraint has its limits, and **Taiwan** reached them long ago.* ## The Technical Detail of This Chinese Military **Escalation** ### An Increasingly Coordinated Air-and-Sea Combination The combination of **13 air sorties** and **ten ships** observed on July 1 illustrates a significant shift in Chinese military doctrine around **Taiwan**: these are no longer simple, isolated flyovers, but combined operations pairing air and naval forces, a format increasingly resembling training scenarios for a possible **blockade** of the island. The **three Chinese government vessels** detected in that same sequence add another dimension to this show of force, reflecting **Beijing's** determination to multiply its vectors of presence around Taiwan, whether military, paramilitary, or institutional, as part of a constant, multi-pronged pressure strategy. ### The Systematic Crossing of the **Median Line** The crossing of the **Taiwan Strait median line** by nine Chinese aircraft in a single day confirms a trend already documented for several years: this informal boundary, respected for decades under tacit convention between both sides, is now violated with a regularity that is gradually stripping it of any practical meaning. This **normalization** of Chinese military aircraft crossing the **median line** constitutes, according to several **regional security** analysts, a deliberate strategy aimed at gradually redefining the acceptable parameters of military presence around Taiwan, without triggering an immediate open conflict. *I believe this strategy of gradual encroachment is more dangerous than a single spectacular provocation. It accustoms the world to the abnormal, until the abnormal becomes the new default norm.* ## Incursions Have Doubled Since President Lai Took Office ### What the **Institute for the Study of War's** Data Show The most striking data point in this story remains the one documented by the **Institute for the Study of War**: the doubling of the average monthly number of Chinese **incursions** since President **Lai Ching-te** took power, a leader Beijing views as noticeably more favorable to the island's formal independence than his predecessors. This direct correlation between **Taipei's** political orientation and the intensity of Chinese **military pressure** illustrates the graduated-retaliation logic adopted by Beijing: every signal from Taiwanese authorities deemed provocative triggers a proportionally more intense military response in the following weeks. ### Pressure Aimed at Public Opinion as Much as at the Government Beyond the message aimed solely at the **Taiwanese government**, this intensification is also meant to weigh on the island's public opinion, in the hope, from Beijing's perspective, of fueling popular fatigue with a state of permanent tension, potentially favoring local political forces more conciliatory toward Beijing in upcoming elections. This psychological warfare strategy, documented by several research centers specializing in Asian strategic affairs, fits into a much broader toolkit of pressure than the military dimension alone, including economic, diplomatic, and informational levers as well. *I think underestimating the psychological dimension of this pressure would be a mistake. Beijing isn't just trying to intimidate the **Taiwanese government**, it's trying to wear down an entire population's very will to resist.* ## Chinese Military **Modernization** as the Backdrop ### Internal **Purges** and **Xi Jinping's** Consolidation of Power According to an analysis by **Foreign Policy**, this military intensification around Taiwan fits into the broader context of accelerated **modernization** of the Chinese **People's Liberation Army**, accompanied by significant internal **purges** aimed at consolidating **Xi Jinping's** personal control over the country's military apparatus. These **purges**, which have touched several senior Chinese military officers in recent months, reflect, according to some analysts, **Xi Jinping's** determination to secure absolute loyalty from his military command before considering any major large-scale operation in the region, with Taiwan naturally the scenario most closely watched by Western intelligence services. ### Official Rhetoric That No Longer Hides Its Intentions According to **India Today**, **Xi Jinping** himself recently urged the **People's Liberation Army** to continue its **modernization** while publicly reaffirming the goal of **reunification** with Taiwan, rhetoric that leaves little room for ambiguity about the Chinese regime's medium-term strategic intentions toward the democratic island. This rhetorical bluntness, unusual compared with the more cautious phrasing used in the past, is read by several Western diplomats as a sign of Beijing's growing confidence in its own military capability, reinforced by years of massive investment in **modernizing** its armed forces. *I note this shift in tone with concern. When a regime stops hiding its territorial ambitions, that's usually a sign it feels strong enough to no longer need to. The West must take that signal seriously.* ## Taiwan's Response and the Defense Budget Debate ### Taiwanese Lawmakers Split Over **Drone** **Budgets** According to the **Straits Times**, Taiwanese lawmakers recently agreed to review **rival budgets** dedicated to developing **drone** capabilities, a story that reveals internal debates on the island over the best strategy to adopt in the face of intensifying Chinese **military pressure**. This budget debate, far from purely technical, illustrates Taiwanese political divisions over how much investment is needed in asymmetric **defense capabilities**, seen by some military experts as the most cost-effective response to the Chinese military's conventional numerical superiority. ### An Island Searching for Its Strategic Balance Taiwan finds itself in a delicate strategic position: investing enough in its defense to deter aggression without provoking an **escalation** that its military capabilities, despite their **modernization**, could not contain alone against Chinese military power without massive and immediate international support. This complex strategic equation largely explains the crucial importance of Western, particularly American, diplomatic and material support in maintaining credible **deterrence** against Chinese ambitions over the island, without which the regional balance would quickly tip in Beijing's favor. *I firmly believe Taiwan cannot secure its own **deterrence** against **China** alone. That's why Western support, particularly American support, isn't just one option among others, it's an absolute strategic necessity for the entire region's **security**.* ## What This **Crisis** Reveals About China's **Gray Zone** Doctrine ### A Strategy That Carefully Avoids the Threshold of Open Conflict This buildup of Chinese military incursions around Taiwan perfectly illustrates what security experts call **gray zone doctrine**: an accumulation of **military pressure** gestures frequent enough to maintain constant tension, but calibrated enough to avoid crossing the threshold that would trigger a direct military response from the **United States** and its regional allies. This patient, methodical strategy aims to gradually accustom the international community to an elevated but tolerable level of tension, reducing the likelihood of a strong international reaction to each incident taken in isolation, while accumulating a favorable balance of power over the long term. ### The Trap of Gradual **Normalization** The main danger of this **gray zone** doctrine lies precisely in its ability to gradually normalize behavior that, if presented all at once, would have triggered an immediate and firm international reaction, but that, spread out over several years, ends up drawing only fleeting media attention. This is precisely the trap of **normalization** that the West must refuse to passively accept, by maintaining constant **vigilance** and a coherent diplomatic response to every new incursion, rather than letting a kind of fatigue set in toward violations that remain significant to the regional balance. *I refuse that fatigue. Every Chinese incursion must keep being documented, condemned, and folded into a coherent diplomatic response, even as it becomes statistically routine. Apparent routine must never become an excuse for indifference.* ## Recent Precedents Fueling Regional Fears ### Large-Scale Chinese **Military Exercises** Around the Island Beyond the daily incursions documented on July 1, **China** has stepped up **large-scale military exercises** around Taiwan in recent months, openly simulating full naval and air **blockade** scenarios for the island, maneuvers that go well beyond mere symbolic shows of force. These exercises, often announced with minimal or no advance notice, also serve to test the response capabilities of Taiwan's armed forces and its regional partners, while gradually accustoming international opinion to the recurring presence of massive Chinese military deployments near Taiwanese shores. ### The Measured but Firm Response From Regional Allies Facing this intensification, the United States' main regional allies, notably **Japan** and **Australia**, have strengthened their diplomatic and military coordination, while carefully avoiding any statement that could be read as rhetorical escalation likely to precipitate a major **crisis** in the region. This diplomatic caution, understandable tactically, must not, however, turn into strategic passivity. Western and regional allies must keep investing concretely in their own **deterrence** capabilities, rather than settling for repeated statements of principle after every new incident. *I understand Tokyo's and Canberra's diplomatic caution. But caution must never become an excuse to delay necessary defense investment. Time is working against the West on this file, not for it.* ## What Recent History of the **Strait** Teaches Us ### Past **Crises** That Were Never Truly Resolved The Taiwan **Strait** has already seen several major **crises** over past decades, each temporarily resolved without ever durably settling the fundamental question of the island's political status. This lack of structural resolution largely explains why current tensions, however intense, fit into a broader historical cycle rather than being an entirely new phenomenon. What sets the current period apart from previous crises, however, is the considerably greater military power **China** now possesses, making every new escalation potentially more dangerous and harder to contain diplomatically than in the past, a reality the West can no longer afford to ignore. ### Why **Vigilance** Must Be Permanent This Time Unlike past crises, often punctuated by periods of relative calm, the current trend suggests continuous, growing pressure with no clear sign of short-term easing. This sustained pressure demands permanent **vigilance** from the West rather than merely reactive attention, triggered only during the most visible spikes in media coverage. It is this constant **vigilance**, rather than episodic reactions, that will allow the West to maintain credible **deterrence** against a Chinese strategy designed precisely to exploit periods of Western inattention or diplomatic fatigue on this crucial regional file. *I think the history of the Taiwan **Strait** teaches us one essential lesson: Western attention has always been cyclical, while Chinese pressure has become constant. That asymmetry of attention is exactly what Beijing exploits.* ## Conclusion: A Western Vigilance That Cannot Waver ### What Taiwan Represents for Global Balance Taiwan is not merely a democratic island of **23 million people**. It is a symbol and a full-scale test of the West's ability to concretely defend its democratic values against an authoritarian power determined to redraw the regional order through force or gradual intimidation. The doubling of Chinese incursions since President Lai took office is not just another statistic: it's a clear signal that Beijing is testing, month after month, the strength of Western deterrence and **Taipei's** resolve to withstand this constant pressure. ### The Need for a Coordinated, Lasting Western Response Facing this methodical escalation, the West cannot settle for occasional condemnation statements. It must concretely support Taiwanese **defense capabilities**, maintain a deterrent diplomatic and military presence in the region, and categorically refuse any **normalization** of these repeated violations of Taiwanese **airspace** and waters. *I'll close with a simple conviction: Taiwan is not just Taiwan's problem. It is the entire West's problem, and the day we forget that will be the day Beijing chooses to act.* **By Maxime Marquette, columnist** ## Columnist's transparency note ### Editorial stance I am not a journalist but a **columnist and analyst**. My expertise lies in observing and analysing the geopolitical, economic and strategic dynamics that shape our world. My work is to take political strategies apart, to understand global economic movements, to put the decisions of international actors in context and to offer analytical perspectives on the changes that are redefining our societies. I do not claim the cold objectivity of traditional journalism, which stops at reporting facts. **I claim analytical clarity**, rigorous interpretation and a deep understanding of the complex issues that concern us all. My role is to give meaning to the facts, to place them in their historical and strategic context, and to offer a critical reading of events. ### Method and sources This text keeps the basic distinction between **verified facts and interpretive analysis**. The rule never changes: a factual claim is published only when a verifiable source supports it, and the sources this article actually used are listed under **Sources**, never here. **Primary source families** used by the publication, when the story has them: official statements from governments and international institutions, public statements by political leaders, reports from intergovernmental organisations, dispatches from recognised international news agencies. **Secondary source families**: specialised publications, internationally recognised news media, analyses from established research institutions, reports from industry organisations. When an article cites statistical, economic or geopolitical data, it comes from the institutions that produce it (intergovernmental organisations, central banks, national statistics offices), and the exact institution is named under **Sources**. ### Nature of the analysis The analyses, interpretations and perspectives in the analytical sections of this article are a **critical, contextual synthesis** based on the information available, the trends observed and the expert comments cited in the sources consulted. My role is to interpret these facts, to set them in the context of today's geopolitical and economic dynamics, and to give them a coherent meaning within the larger story of the changes shaping our time. These analyses reflect expertise built through continuous observation of international affairs and an understanding of the strategic mechanisms that drive global actors. This article describes a documented state of affairs on its publication date, not a prediction: later developments may shift its outlook. No update is promised in advance; when an article is corrected or completed, the change is dated in the text. ## Sources ### Primary sources - The Tribune — Taiwan detects rise in Chinese military incursions, 2026 - Foreign Policy — Military purges and the modernization of China's army, January 30, 2026 ### Secondary sources - Institute for the Study of War — China-Taiwan update, February 6, 2026 - The Straits Times — Taiwan lawmakers agree to review rival drone budgets, 2026 - Storm Media — Coverage of tension in the Taiwan Strait, 2026 - India Today — Xi Jinping urges army modernization, reaffirms reunification push, July 1, 2026 --- Source: Maxime Marquette, MadMax. When citing, name the author and link https://mad-max.co/en/article/taiwan-encaisse-une-nouvelle-vague-d-incursions-militaires-chinoises